. >>> david rosenberg joins us now from rosenberg research.ion data this morning, very quickly, and more importantly, the market reaction >> i think the market is having difficulty differentiating between what is true lasting inflation and what is a price level adjustment and when you actually go beneath the headline, wilf, you will see that most of the inflation was in a few areas like used cars. that's a semiconductor shortage development. you also have 10% increases or thereabouts in hotels, accommodation, and in sporting events and things of that nature the expectation with the economy reopening it would be bouncing up a lot the cleveland fed actually publishes a median cpi this shows you the distortion. headline is up .8. but median was up only .2. so it was a very skewed report, in my opinion. >> so it sounds like you are in the fed camp, where you think this is transitory or not going to be as worrisome of a problem, david, what would change your mind how many months of these types of numbers what sort of components should we be looking

david. good to catch up. dated rosenberg, rosenberg research chief economist. won't 1% increase in personal income last month, the most since 1946. phenomenal. to david's point, none of that is artificial. tom: the only comparative we have is 4748 and a boom effective out of world war ii, some of that on europe flat on its back. i don't think that is an apt comparison. where we are now is absolutely original, and that is where you get this conversation. jonathan: so many distortions that we need to work through into year-end. lisa: the key question is the fiscal plan that may be passed, if it is borne out over the next eight to 10 years, will have the same distortions. jonathan: how wide is that range now? no idea. that's what you've got to grapple with for the year ahead. a massive range on fiscal. yields, 1.64 91%. the s&p 500 up 0.5%. on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. warren buffett says if he were to step down as ceo of berkshire hathaway, he would likely be replaced by vice-chairman greg abel. he told

people like stephen major at hsbc, david rosenberg up in toronto. they are not screaming higher yields, saying 1960's or even some kind of elevated inflation. they say this is transitory. tom:tom: let's talk about this pain trade. what would be the maximum amount of pain on the least amount of people? lisa: more and more people are saying yields lower because they are expecting inflation to pick up. they are expecting the fed to move away from easy money policies. if we do get a move lower in yields, what does that do in terms of growth expectations that fuel the incredible russian to risk assets -- incredible rush into risk assets? jonathan: the s&p 500 advancing about 0.3%. the nasdaq 100 up 44, advancing about 0.3%. in the fx market, the euro slightly negative, down about 0.4%, euro-dollar $1.2239. lisa: we talked about that two-year auction. it was actually incredibly strong. today, ceos headed to the senate to testify about how they were the stalwart post-pandemic. how much are they pressured by senators about the fact that they haven't lent ou

i would also mention david rosenberg. they are just saying calm down.his is a varied set of outcomes. it is not just one reaction function. and we don't know what that path is going to be. jonathan: what will come down to his inflation expectations. if you afford me the time, this came from governor brainard yesterday. long-term inflation expectations have been extremely well anchored, implying that if we saw some development pushing inflation up, i wouldn't expect that to get embedded in the ongoing inflation rate. tom: anna han back with us for a short visit after technical difficulties. what is between the certitude of transitory inflation and the idea of the fear of inflation back to the 1960's? anna: the 1960's wouldn't be my strong suit, but when you think about how the inflation picture looks, transitory is the keyword we have all been hanging onto. but how do we define it? when you think about pass recoveries, how much inflation do we have to see to actually see the fed take accommodation off the table? even if we see change in cpi throughout th

[laughter] coming up on our program, david rosenberg, rosenberg research chief economist and strategist, for the real take on what is happening with inflation in america. yields higher by couple of basis points this morning, 1.6 420%. euro-dollar, $1.2054, up about 0.3%. 4190 five on s&p 500 futures. tom: yield comes in nicely. the trend is there. to your point, leading off with the jobs day come of this we have never seen before going into friday. jonathan: how the market responds to that data will be really interesting. a number of weeks ago we saw it with cpi and retail sales, upside surprises. the bond market went the other way. what do the stoxx do? not a lot. we are looking for a massive number this friday. that's only one half of the story. the other half is how the market responds to it. we are going to talk about that, too. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick -- i'm ritika gupta. wa

tom: david rosenberg out moments ago in toronto, and he says the real inflation, you know what?t is not that's real. rosenberg and others are really pushing against the gloom of higher inflation. jonathan: pushing back hard. that's for sure. julia coronado joining us next, macropolicy perspectives president and founder. your equity market higher, advancing zero point 3% on the s&p 500. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jonathan: one hour away from the opening val. -- from the opening bell. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. through 4200 on the s&p. yields are breaking 1.60 to the downside. down not even a basis point at 1.5944 four stop -- 1.5944. 1.2262 on euro-dollar, moving to the euro's favor. tom: a lot of housing data coming up. i believe you will see that on "the open" with jon ferro. jonathan: thank you. tom: it is now time to frame the fed. we can do that with julia coronado, macro policy perspectives founder. the equity market is voti

call of 30 years a disinflation and a deflationary tendency to get when i look at steve major, david rosenberg, and others saying wait, don't be an inflationista, the heart of the matter is technology and what has done to this american economy. lisa: and also the fact that, you killed me for this yesterday comes that people are getting older and people are in more debt area that leads to slower growth, full stop. tom: unbelievable, the effect of this technology in all we have seen, and that is a good to catch -- that is a good time to catch up with christopher grisanti, moving from growth to value at mai capital. in your research note, use amazon, by it. chris: and that is weird for a value guy. but what we have to realize is that amazon has underperformed the s&p for a year now, so the pendulum has clearly swung to value and energy, financials. i think this is maybe the first time in three or four years investors have the time to buy -- have a chance to buy amazon at a relative value to where they usually trade. the reason i really like this is because the earnings in the first quarter weren'