joining us by phone is david rosenberg.he data on the consumer is it the high inflation is it omicron or something else problematic to you >> you know, if it was just about inflation and everybody's talking about that look at nominal growth is still doing great because companies are raising pricing and the volumes are hanging in the nominal number as you said was negative 1.9. the consensus looking for a flattish number. but ultimately the contours of the business cycle are determined not by nominal figures but by real figures. the real economy and what stood out to me is real retail sales worst reading since april of 2020 and came after a negative .6% in november now i guess you could say that there was a lot of preholiday buying with inventory concerns but we know that the december data didn't contain the pullback in consumer spending that we know happened in restaurants and air travel and accommodations. that's going to be cascading into january so that's the big concern is that the numbers as bad as they were probably g

tom: some of the names we are not mentioning, david rosenberg and david blanchflower at dartmouth, publishinggo, bloomberg intelligence, ira jersey and his team. their land would is forceful. they see tip yields, the 10-year gilts skyrocket. jonathan: is ira jersey at five hikes for this year now? i think i saw that. i think he might be. we got to check in with iran find out. coming up, andrew sheets of morgan stanley. tom: theresa may is speaking in parliament. is that a big deal? jonathan: i think it is nice to hear from the former prime minister. i am getting the 10 second count, and you know that. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> something has got to give this year, and it might be margins. >> i think we are heading for the titus labor market since the 1950's. >> we expect the measure to rise. that does not mean the fed will go away. >> we think the fed will have more difficult he raising rates rapidly than the market believes. >> we think we are moving towards the next new normal. with ink it is a positive move -- we think it is a positive move. >> this is "bloomberg surveilla

tom: i'm going to go david rosenberg with his own shot and they're saying it is dynamic and things changeevents occur. and if you do get a yield up as you get the fed pulling away fiscal stimulus ebbs, that's a whole new world after all. jonathan: i would very well a basic question with danny. we're good friends but i want to understand the conditions at which he would call for an interest rate hike, tom. that's been absent from the conversation for a while. tom: that would be true. that would be true. he has been very, very skeptical. jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro yield to level three basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the supreme court has cleared the way for donald trump's white house dealing with the january 6 to be overturned to the corral committee by 8-1 vote. justices rejected the bid to block the release on the grounds of executive privilege. the material includes visitor, e-mails, and handwritten notes. president biden says if the fed -- rein in the fastest rate of inflation in decades. at a news conference, the president said he supports the fed's p

david rosenberg yesterday was heated on this, that we are going to go up and then come back down.ou would be someone that would ascribe to that. how likely is it that we will see tempered lower long-term yields? priya: i will say we are forecasting the 10 year not to go above 2.5%. that is lower than the last move come over the tenure did get to 3%. but it can be higher from here. what i really struggle with is the market pricing in a policy mistake, that the fed will start hiking as early as march. they hiked four times this year. they let the balance sheets runoff. then they push us into a double-dip or realize that they went too much. i think that is not giving the fed enough credit. i do think they want to raise rates, but do they want to raise rates to the point where they tighten financial conditions and derail the recovery? that is what i pushback against. we think it is closer to 2%, but it is not that many more hikes. i think what the fed will focus on is balance sheets reduction, which is massive. the fed owns a ton of treasuries, and a lot of them are short dated, so if

. >> good stat from david rosenberg this morning 40% of nasdaq stocks down 50% or more from the peaks. two thirds of stocks in that index down more than 20% in bear market it is going on since november and makes you wonder how much the stocks take a beating before they look sensible >> you can go to the peak in february, march of last year when the archetype stocks had the best moment. one, that shows you that there's too much broken stocks piling up in the market and seems that we don't have demand for them or it could be we put punish in place and small cap growth, russell 2000 small cap on a price to sales basis is basically as cheap as it's ever been relative to the s&p i think you have gone a long way toward kind of reconciling those extreme valuations and taking care of them to the down sooird. there's never a moment you say we're finished only know that in retrospect. >> they don't call it when it comes. you see stabilization. maybe we saw a bounce today and that's the sign. nasdaq under pressure following the worst week since february of 2021 selling continues. der dre bosa wi

rosenberg, former u.s. attorney, as well as a former senior fbi official, betsy woodruff swan is back, national correspondent for politico. davidcome to you on this frame for the investigation that congressman jamie raskin gave me, the rioters outside, the conspiracy, maybe, carried out by extremist groups, we saw doj charge the first big conspiracy of the oath keepers' leader and then the inner ring, the coup. these subpoenas today seem directly targeted to the coup itself. >> right. there's no question. this is the select committee homing in on the legal team that trump used to try to take the battle that he lost at the ballot box and try to refight it in court. that legal effort, of course, was a spectacular failure, in large part because the facts were not on those lawyers' side, but it created a moment of significant suspense in the country in terms of just how far the president would be willing to go and the allegations that those lawyers made in court provided significant fodder to people pushing conspiracy theories about the election. those conspiracy theories, of course, were a key part of the reason that there was so