that is the claim from david rosenberg. tom: it is the other side of the coin.e going to have no dudley on, who is clearly in a different position. oh, dudley we do not have today. thank you for telling me that, amy. got two sides of the argument, and we are going to bring that to you through the entire week. blanchflower, rosenberg, others. they don't buy it. jonathan: we will catch up with patrick harker. i've got to ask and how useful the payrolls report will be for him on friday, how useful will it be when so many people are choosing to look right through it. lisa: and frankly, when inflation is their primary mandate, it sounds like they are buying into the story that is a very heated labor market. i do find it interesting, disco and back to the david riesenberg -- just going back to the david rosenberg place, do they feel like they are in a better place than they were? jonathan: consumer sentiment i think speaks loudly on that. my favorite tom keene line of the morning, "i'm not going to share what he told me. it was a private conversation. but this is what

.: i will go to david rosenberg who is saying everybody calm down. parse each item of inflation led by the elephant in the room, which is maybe it is fuel, maybe it is food. i will suggest it is the rent analysis we will see in the coming days split out to the goods and services dynamics. jonathan: a couple saying the same thing, hike, hike into summer and then pause. this seems to be the consensus view this gets worse before it gets better. kailey: that is what the market is pricing, full percent higher in terms of where the rate will be at the end of july. the question becomes the move in march. the market says the odds of 50, 37 basis points priced in. jonathan: look out for the fed speak. equity futures demo nasdaq by 1.2%. a tight lift in the front end of the yield curve. two back to 1.40 2, 10, 1.96. she is known by some of you by the name queen of rates. priya misra joins us at the top of the hour to run you through to the opening bell. from new york city this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we are going through a very tough time. our prices are torn up. i

we were in a conversation earlier today with a well-known economist david rosenberg who feels they willtant balancing act between how far or how aggressive central banks are in the fear of tipping and economy into a recession. matt: inflation has not held back the u.s. consumer from the retail sales numbers this morning. we heard from shopify that they are concerned about inflation. they are concerned about spending. more likely this huge drop you're looking at in and that stock -- it is down 18.5%, the biggest drop since 2020. it is due to covid or the lack thereof. the company said the covid triggered acceleration of e-commerce in the first half of 2021 and the form of lockdown said government stimulus will be absent from 2022. that has scared investment off, reducing the market cap by about a fifth. john: huge numbers. we are moving into this new retail reality. you are seeing that spending day that you just referenced in the u.s. roaring back to life. maybe people not to make as much shopping online. let's get more perspective on the retail sector now from farla efros, president of

charles: david rosenberg, highly influential economist, strip all the government handouts and real personale has all but stagnated since the pandemic. without the handouts, income is up 3.3%. u.s.'s vitality rests on policy stimulus in the rear view mirror. the greatest economy in the history of mankind, our vitality rests on handouts, freebies, stimmies is that what we are now? >> rosenberg is extreme left keynesian type guy who thinks you can't run ins the government runs the economy and government finances economy n free market, free enterprise capitalist system that simply not is true. by far largest portion of the company nowadays is the private sector, private investment sector which is 70 percent plus of our economy. what he is saying is wrong. that is extremist view. can i say though, it is not our fault, my friend christine lagarde, it is not our fault, energy, omicron. the money supply is growing so rapidly in the u.s. and the european union and for that matter china, i mean, come on, kids. charles: sure. >> that is what causes inflation. charles: sure. >> that hasn't been cushed

and david rosenberg had a line that he's been saying in his report lately, guys, that i thought is interesting, which is the pandemic was really good for the stock market it meant tons of fiscal stimulus, tons of monetary stimulus all these technological trends were accelerated people were at home, spending a lot. now as we come out of the pandemic, it's going to be bumpy. >> well, there's no doubt it's going to be bumpy. volatility is already up this year we're already seeing this transitional type of market. and the bank of america number on the level of the fed put was a survey result. that was kind of professional investors saying, i don't know, down 15%, 20% sounds right to me in terms of when that comes into play there's another school of thought that, to your point, the fed is not unhappy to see markets cool off in an observable way it's coming off a 23 times earnings down to 19. >> it's part of policy to cool off demand for the wealth effect it makes sense >> yes, so we do have what i would say is a little more of this kind of ratcheting down of risk appetites and these markets testing

rosenberg. actually. we have david willis here.the world is praying for ukraine, while president putin praise on ukraine. president putin praise on ukraine-— president putin praise on ukraine. , ., ukraine. yes, indeed and the liuhts ukraine. yes, indeed and the lights are _ ukraine. yes, indeed and the lights are still— ukraine. yes, indeed and the lights are still on _ ukraine. yes, indeed and the lights are still on my - ukraine. yes, indeed and the lights are still on my after . lights are still on my after midnight in the building behind me. president biden has been read by members of his security team including the defence secretary and the secretary of state. he issued that statement, as you mentioned, decrying the attack, calling it unprovoked and unjustified and accused vladimir putin of carrying out a premeditated wall that would lead to a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. mr biden has also been speaking in the last few minutes to the ukrainian president, volodymyr zelensky, and we have been handed a statemen

rosenberg, bbc news, moscow. here's the bbc�*s north america correspondent, david willis, with more on those talks between biden and went as far as to say if russia were to invade ukraine, there would be, as he put it, "no longer any nord stream 2 pipeline". america has been long opposed to the project, and this meeting at the white house today seems pretty crucial as far as establishing germany's position to the package of economic sanctions that the united states and europe are looking to unveil. today, 0laf scholz didn't go as far as mr biden in actually specifying what would happen to nord stream 2. he said he would put all options on the table, but he wouldn't get into specifics. when he was asked how he would actually bring an end to the nord stream 2 project in the event of a russian invasion, mr biden wouldn't go into specifics. but the german leader did express, however, germany's strong commitment to economic sanctions, which is just what the united states was hoping to hear. germany has been criticised here for sending 5000 helmets, but nothing in the way of real military support to ukraine. that's attra

rosenberg, bbc news, moscow. let's get more on those talks in washington between biden and scholz and speak to the bbc�*s north america correspondent, david press conference for us. great to have you on the programme. the key message seemed to be from that press conference that president biden was being very tough. is germany united in this? ~ , �* in this? well, president biden went as far as to — in this? well, president biden went as far as to say _ in this? well, president biden went as far as to say if _ in this? well, president biden went as far as to say if russia _ in this? well, president biden went as far as to say if russia were - in this? well, president biden went as far as to say if russia were to . as far as to say if russia were to invade ukraine, there would be "no longer any nord stream two pipeline. america has been long opposed, and this meeting at the white house today seems pretty crucial as far as establishing germany's position to the package of economic sanctions that the united states and europe are looking to unveil. today, olaf scholz didn't go as far as mr biden. and actually specifying what would happen to no