tom: david rosenberg with a blistering note out of toronto, saying let's go. this is the frontloading concept. let's get it done, raise rates to get the first tranche of inflation slowdowns to happen. jonathan: loretta mester on board. mary daly onboard. 75 basis points all over again. it is not just about the fed and now, it is the ecb, as well. art us up for 25, will they have to go more? we had a little bit of a lead into that from the regional cpi print out of germany, looking for that downside surprise. we get the headline number this friday. tom: double-digit inflation in spain. it leads to the tea leaves, brent crude exploding out 115 to 119. lisa: a different story from last week when people thought there would be an economic downturn that would reduce demand for oil. that lasted about five minutes, as people realize the market was tight. i want to pick up on something you said earlier, euro-swiss. you see in moving back just a bit. how much does the ecb dovetail this nuanced picture of inflation, economic picture in europe with a call being hawkish en

david rosenberg mentioned, had a conversation with him a month ago. he said if you see three tenth of a percent of increase in the unemployment rate, you almost always see a recession follow that i know a lot of bad stuff has to happen over the next three to six months for that to happen, but it's not that crazy to think about if we're burning off this excess and i don't know if you guys also saw the atlanta fed, we know we had a negative print in q1. technically, if it swung to negative, this is going to be a bad last month, then we've got a recession. >> so i come back to the point liz is making. yet the market doesn't seem to care they're sort of looking beyond it because they think all right, all this pressure, inflation will come down do part of the fed's job for them we have a lot of hikes priced in and so we're looking past that the market is a forward looking indicator, which it is, so dan you must think the market is nowhere close. >> we have hundreds and hundreds of stocks in the russell 3,000 that have been cut in half we're in a bear marke

i think this is something david rosenberg wrote about yesterday in his piece he puts out daily. the fact of the matter is, the best we can do is try and ascertain direction and relative order of magnitude. other than that, i do not think we can try and pander about where the bottom is, and how far will it go, what is going to be affected until we are in it. kailey: when you look at the tea leaves and the idea of certain tech companies starting to lay off members of their staff or cut back on hiring plants, have we entered a new phase of the economic cycle that is beginning on the edges and requires a shift in strategy? lisa: i think we are -- markets art six to nine months ahead of reality. i am in the camp that the price action we have seen thus far is bear market. has probably discounted at least two thirds to seven dates -- 7/8 of the way there. i am guessing there is going to be a shallow recession. in that spirit, what is different about the labor market this time is that we have never had the number of job openings, the ratio of job openings to applicants that we came into

apparel tomorrow to see the linkage, target and walmart as well, and i'm going to go back to david rosenberg01, who literally became famous parsing inflation at merrill lynch years ago. it matters to divided into 82 different subgroups. jonathan: it starts now, but minutes time, and uscp out tomorrow morning. tom: there will be core inflation analysis. nobody in washington cares about core analysis of inflation. they don't care about cleveland, but they care about the headline number and it is grim. who's a groomer for, republicans or democrats? >> politically it hurts democrats much more. republicans are campaigning on inflation. it is an issue around the country and if you are talking about who it effects in terms of voters, you look at california gas prices, a number of democrats, it is not just rallying republican opposition to the president, it could dampen democratic enthusiasm because it is so widespread around the country. it is a huge problem for democrats, the focus of the midterms right now for republicans and a major factor why people expect republicans to win at least one of two