it's not clear -- it's not clear either move is good. >> let's get more on the feds with david rosenbergou agree with steve that it's a pickle? i don't know if either is a good choice here. >> well, remember that it was just over a week ago that chief powell was nurturing the market into believing that we're going to have 50 basis points. i think right now the fed is probably going to do what the markets have got priced in and that changes by the day. let's assume that things in the financial markets stabilize in the next week. they're probably going to go 25 basis points they're not going 50 i think they should do nothing, and i was saying that after the bank of canada did nothing after their last meeting and you could argue that christine lagarde with her 15 basis points today sort of gave the green light for the fed to do something i think the fed wants to do something. i think they want to signal to the market even in this turmoil that they haven't taken their eye off the inflation ball but 25 basis points here or there, look at what financial conditions have done just over the cours

thank you. >> thank you >> david rosenberg, rosenberg research david has a great twitter feed if you don't follow him, follow him. he tweeted this chart of the s&p 500 earnings yield and earnings on the six-month t bill. they're practically the same so this environment, what would you rather right? >> well, if you're bullish you'd rather -- right, take a shot but for me -- it's the t bills, yeah yeah one thing he said made me think. reversion to the mean, doesn't go back to the mean but beyond the mean then comes back. >> yeah. most people don't do the math on that as they call it jeff what do you make of rosenberg's thoughts >> well, i agree with him and he mentioned earnings and i think that's sort of critically important and keep talking about the lagged impact of interest rates on the economy one of the things with the highest correlation we track is earnings and ism manufacturing pmi. if you look at the lag impact of earnings on manufacturing pmi, it's actually about 12 to 18 months and that correlation is tight going back decades and decades, so our point of view is that really

charles: i want to bring in rosenberg founder president, david rosenberg.ou tweeted a lot of things, i can't keep up with you. so many amazing things. i want to talk to him about that. ii want to him about that. you said jay powell has time to wipe egg off his face. so what does that mean? >> well look, last week he has two days of testimony in front of congress and not once did he mention that one of the members of the deposit taking institution universe which is part of the fed's umbrella was on the process of being closed down. and look, we had three banks fail within a week. that's a pretty tight window to have banks shuttered down. so i think that is quite obvious and don't forget that, it is not as if he was in front of congress saying well, you know we'll go 25 or we're going to pause, we're going to do what the bank of canada did, sort of see what the lagged actions were from the aggressiveness of the past year. none of that. he actually nurtured the markets to think that the move next week was going to be 50 basis points. so that's the egg that we'

david: steve rosenberg reporting.ore on president xi's visit to moscow, i am speaking with bonnie glaser, china expert at the german marshall fund in washington, d.c. the white house spokesman john kirby said today the united states would be watching these talks in moscow verylosely, as he put it. what is it watching for in particular? is it watching for a push for peace talks as far as ukraine is concerned, or is it watching for the possible arming of russia by china? bonnie: i think the united states is watching for both things. it is looking for the intention of xi jinping and vladimir putin in developing their bilateral relationship. where are they heading next? how are they going to cooperate to counter u.s. influence around the world? it is also interested in whether xi jinping is eager to play some mediating role in the conflict in ukraine, and if so is xi jinping ready to hold a phone call with ukrainian president zelenskyy? u.s. officials have said china is actually creeping up to the redline that would const

question of how much the time we bought will solve these problems so take a look this is what david rosenberglue? take a look at what happened svb signatures have been resolved a new fed fund has been established to finance banks duration risk reckoning has been removed but not necessarily resolved over any period of time they're left with a series of and the impact on monetary policy, do they pause? will uninsured depositors feel safe how will banks pay for this guarantee they have been now been gifted? where were the bank regulators when this was going on and can banks fix their risk the outlook has declined dramatically here's where we are right now. this is the outlook for the peak rate, you can see how much has come off that peak rate forecast somebody do the math for me, whatever 27 and 70 is, what is it, 97 almost a percentage point. good enough for rock 'n' roll right there. two impacts on the economy, lower rates including lower mortgage rates and higher valuesed bank collateral that's positive for potential economic activity and inflation. but the need for banks to pay higher intere

david rosenberg is circulating this chart yesterday and showed the earnings yield on the s&p 500 waso make if your time horizon is a short term to be in equities right now. >> yeah. look, i think the attractiveness that you're seeing in bond yields is certainly raising the bar for all other asset classes. one of the things that, you know, we see in both the public markets and the private markets is, you know, when the benchmark risk is so much higher it raises the bar for all investors, whatever the asset class, not just nonequities. >> all right julian, we'll leave it there thanks so much for joining us. goldman sachs. >> thank you. >>> let's get to deirdre bosa with a news alert on amazon. >> amazon is pausing construction on its second headquarters in virginia, known as hq2 john shutler, amazon's head of real estate tells us in statement quoting him, we're always evaluating space plans to make sure they fit our business needs and create a great experience for our employees since it will have pace to accommodate 14,000 we decided to shift the groundbreaking of pen place, the second

. >> it's the alamo, as david rosenberg said in his report this morning, when it comes to first republicank. what a set-up for jay powell on wednesday. >> we'll talk more about that, of course. >>> when we come back, we're going to talk about how you find a safe haven in this market. we're going to talk about whether technology shares can continue their upward momentum last week was the best week for the nasdaq since october >>> lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead you need to deliver new apps fast using the services you want in the clouds of your choice. with flexible multi-cloud services that enable digital innovation and enterprise control, vmware helps you innovate and grow. ♪♪ inner voice (kombucha brewer): if i just stare at these payroll forms... my business' payroll taxes will calculate themselves. right? uhh...nope. intuit quickbooks helps you manage your payroll taxes, cheers! with 100% accurate tax calculations guaranteed. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfac

tom: on goods and services, david rosenberg and others say we will see that disinflation.ll hope and prefer that? jonathan: now they start to look a little silly quickly. they have to be more open-minded about the two-way risk. i know people feel passionate about going one direction. other people feel confident about the other -- passionate about the other direction. with that in mind, they're good to go again to five basis points and again after that. you want to know the average of the two years since march 2009? the average two year yield, 1.05%. we are at 4.90%. the low was back in 2021 and we were at 10 basis points. tom: let's get away from suits and bowties, what does this 7.1 -- 7.3% 30 year mortgage, we are not there. if we get there, what does it mean for our viewers? lisa: mortgage applications are at the lowest level in 20 years. people on refinancing, they are buying in--if they can. at what point does this cause -- they are buying in cash if they can. if the mortgage rates come down, people rush back into the market and buy again. this is the quagmire of disi

david rosenberg is on tour talking about it.ecause it's more correlated to date optimistically then anything we've seen. john oil, $74 american. jonathan: no news on that and good news for this market for now. equities up by 1/10 of 1% but the president came in yesterday he's said things like it's not over yet i'd never advise that. usually they say we've got it under control. the president also said things are settling down. that's hard to disagree with based on the lack of news in the last week. i mention equities up by 1/10 of 1% if we can get to that board. the story about the divergence that could emerge between the ecb and the federal reserve the euro-dollar 108 50. tom: some of the tweaks the tea leaves are looking at. head of microstrategy for north america, i love only. --lee. the bank crisis, it should be over. you've seen a few of these, unlike me. how do you know within -- when it ends? >> you don't know when it ends it's just time. time is the greatest healer, tom . another day, no more bad news on the banking side

let's remind ourselves that there is people like david rosenberg and others that say service sector inflation flat and will come in a distant fleet. -- distant fleet. jonathan: they wish it was that simple don't they. they are incredibly concerned about the higher inflation becoming entrenched. i mention they believe the clock is ticking which speaks to this faster point. i'd sit here and say where is it too they have any idea? tom: you don't see this, folks we have the banner up on tv a negative 107 beeps? that was supposed to be like back to school. jonathan: its early 80's stuff. that's nuts. tom: when you're at the university as jon ferro says it you go over and look at the roman ruins. how did goldman sachs off the london desk synthesize yesterday's festivities in washington? how did goldman sachs london adjust? >> i agree with your comments i feel the adjustment we have seen has been quite small given the news that we had from powell that the view will be that they need to tighten a bit further in a way in order to push inflationary trends down and stop inflation becoming more embedded.

david jolly. back with us, chuck rosenberg, former u.s. attorney and senior fbi official. ali, to you.s really divided republicans by letting tucker carlson have that footage. >> between the chambers of congress. the conversations that you saw snippets of from some senate republicans sound different than the conversations i have been having with republican lawmakers in recent weeks basically since mccarthy decided to give this footage to tucker carlson exclusively. the speaker's office says after that at some point other news organizations, including nbc, will get a chance to look at that footage. the word that republicans on the house side especially keep using is transparency. look no further than the contrast between house speaker mccarthy fielded questions about this yesterday and what you played from mitch mcconnellccon. >> do you regret giving him this footage so he can whitewash the events on that day? >> no. >> the capitol police chief says it was cherry picked, it was misleading and offensive. do you have any concerns about anything aired? >> i didn't see what was aired. what

david: what does moscow make of all this? a short time ago i was joined by r russia editor steve rosenberg.ignificant is this move by the international criminal cou's and what has been the kremlin's reaction? steve: from a practical point of view, don't hold your breath. russian police are not about to slap and cuffs on vladimir putin and dispatch him to the hague. russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of the international criminal court and russia does not extradite its citizens. however this arrest warrant does send a pretty strong message. the message is there are judges in the hague who consider putin allegedly to have committed war crimes. that makes the russian president even more of a pariah than he is now. putin is still trying to play the role of global statesman. we have the chinese president due here for a state visit. the kremlin is clearly furious. vladimir putin's spokesperson organized an emergency conference call for journalists tonight. that is something he rarely does. he was brief. he was angry. he described this move as outrageous and unacceptable and refused to tak