so shortly we have david rosenberg on. he recently observed that more than 140 stocks have hit 52 week highs since may. that feels like a nice broadening that we've been waiting for, right. that's exactly what's happening. we're seeing stocks of people hated again. the banks to you, carlton going up and we had zions bank or keep cork america. they all went up more than 10% this week on earnings, but the downside of that is that when you have these big stocks, like these tech giants that have been lifting the market up when they're not going up that can actually pull the markets down a bit, and that's why you saw the nasdaq down in the dow do quite do so well. multiple minutes into the show, and we have not said the words the fed yet so of course we have to their meeting next week. what are you looking for? well everybody knows that they're going to hike rates one more time in the betting is that that's going to be it. but i think that what you have to be careful about is that the fed might come into this and look at the st

. >> wall street is an optimistic that we may avoid over recession david rosenberg sees it differently and i'll ask him why he things a slowdown is inevitable. guaranteed payouts are panel will explain which annuities are best for income for your retirement. later america's factories are makingomake a look at what industries are growing in the investment opportunities. we begin with three things investors out of thing about right now. a big win for the dow but big tech slumped hurting the nasdaq a slew of key earnings move the market then at&t and verizon hit hard after wall street journal reported toxic lead are coe stocks used car car vona is one of the most volatile stocks should you play the mean rally, then level until 11, carleton english and jack hough. >> the great l rotation from teh stocks never materialized but this was a big week for the old economy. >> they say every dog has its day but the dow had ten days in a row of gains the longest winning streak since 2017. it's because people felt like maybe we had enough tech were to buy other stuff and they bought banks, goldman s

joining me now is rosenberg research president and founder david rosenberg.david thanks so much for coming on the show from up there in canada, where it's i guess a little bit cooler. ah, well, you know, up here in canada we get, uh, our three days of summary year and this is it so but thanks for having me back, jack. it's great to be on a sure thing . so recently, i've seen a lot of commentary that we might actually avoid this much predicted recession, but you are decidedly not in that camp. you know all the rhetoric about the soft landing reminds me of when i was at mother merrill back in 2007. and you know the fact of the matter, jack is that we are and have been for the past year in a soft landing. and you know, in 2007. we were in a soft landing and in 2000, we were in a soft landing and in 1989, we were in a soft landing and 1979 . we're in a soft landing in the soft landing is just the bridge . the road between the economic expansion and then in the aftermath of the fed tightening cycle. ah the inevitable recession. so the soft landing, you could argue

david rosenberg with updated thoughts from rosenberg research. >>> the ceo of imax is next.barbenheimer seeing the biggest box office debut can the movie industry bring viewers back to the theater beyond this pretty unique phenomenon we'll discuss. >>> we have piper sandler cutting amex to sell shares are down more than 5%1. we'll get to that call when "squawk on the street" returns >>> it's been a big weekend at the box office with barbenheimer bringing in over $200 million. imax, which is screening "oppenheimer" notching its biggest weekend since 2023 bringing in $35 million for the company, which is imax's biggest share ever of a film's opening weekend box office with 20% of total receipts joining us for an exclusive interview is imax ceo rich gelfond. w why was this unique for imax >> historically imax is an ancillary part of the box office if it's a hollywood film, you get drift off the marketing. but this chris nolan filming with imax, he made imax the centerpiece of his marketing campaign we led the way globally. as you said, it was 20% worldwide but 26% on 1% of the

david rosenberg joins us in toronto with rosenberg research. i want you to speak to jerome powell. lationary -- display snaring vector and forced and what be staying with a disinflation into 2024? david: i think with the disinflation trend, it will be the primary trend. we will have a bump in the next month or two because the crv has taken an 8% jump since the end of may for the reason you folks were talking about. the question is how the fed will treat that, and whether it will be temporary or permanent of this run-up we have had across food prices in the commodity markets. and also what is happening with oil coming off the bottom. if this is happening with an 4.5% to 5% unemployment rate, and we have access in the economy, it is not a problem. but with full employment, the weight has to be on the fence mind. the primary trend is going to be toward disinflation into the next 12 months. the next couple months will challenge that you. tom: army beyond the pan-dem -- are we beyond the pandemic? do you believe in factors? are we beyond pandemic analysis? david: i don't think so. we are

david rosenberg feels like inflation is what we should worry about as opposed to inflation. what are you seeing when you look at the inflation picture right now? parts i think of wages as the bridge between the labor market and the inflation picture. wage acceleration is coming down despite the tremendous job growth in the consumer facing service sector jobs, everyone of the sectors i named saw deceleration. that's good news for people who are concerned about inflation, the wage price spiral. it's not looking like that is materializing. the cost of more job grains is not higher inflation. if you look at our numbers based on millions of workers across the country. we are not seeing a recession in the labor market. also not stoke up in inflation. jon: as the job market stays robust, if you are trying to determine what consumer spending will look like in six months, we had comments about people ending up with more money because of pent up saving or during the pandemic, how do you try to pin the picture of what that will look like forward? guest: it looks just us like the jobs a

taking the temperature with the kinds of bonds investors are curious about, i was talking to david rosenberg yesterday, can we go longer duration and we talked about the challenges for the longer duration debt, what are they willing to make right now? liz: front end rates are high. we saw two's go over 5% of the fed could go a little more in. the real bank for your buck as things unravel and stocks coming off, that is where the long and will work. last year we had the anomaly of the stocks and bonds both down but people think goods are -- rates are good to lock in and will balance the portfolio. people are avoiding the short end and hoping that long and bonds are a rate coupon and it may work as things unravel. matt: goolsby said we are on a golden path, the golden point austan goolsbee was making that weekend ease grope without -- growth without triggering a recession. aardvark zandi was saying he prefers the term "slow session." mike: the chances have improved but it is how you define the soft landing, if they can get reflation down without a recession you would probably call that a soft e

david rosenberg, rosenberg research tim, it's sobering he makes a lot of fantastic points, but how do you reconcile that with what's going on in the markets and a call for what's going to happen or might happen in the next 12 months with the markets we have on our hands right now? >> he sure does. david's done thoughtful work for a long time, and the data points he's bringing up are undeniable. volker is cited as a hero, but what volker -- he was obsessed over the psychology of inflation, which he felt he had to break and didn't matter if he broke the economy. i don't know where this fed falls in line with that, but what's clear is that the sequencing of this market has been very different than people had expected and that means not only the timing of recession, which david pointed out, i think people probably got wrong in 2007 through 2009 and maybe they're getting wrong here the things that are most important to me are, valuations always matter at some point, and i do think that a 19 times forward, which is well -- two or three turns higher than where we were pre-covid, is something

david rosenberg will be on radio with me in the next hour but this is a big deal, how mike mckee breaks breakfast in victor, idaho. -- a manly breakfast in victor, idaho. eggs down 7.3 percent. the beverage of his choice, flat. lisa: thank you for letting us know. is that your breakfast? tom: that is my breakfast. [laughter] lisa: bacon and eggs and a glass of whiskey. tom: we call that a shot. [laughter] megan horneman joins us now, chief investment officer of verdence capital? you change this outlook -- do you change your outlook with this disinflation report? >> disinflation is going in the right direction but i don't think it changes the move in july from the fed. they cannot take their foot on the pedal. there are three things they're looking at and they are not necessarily looking at airline fares. they are looking at housing which is likely elevated, they are looking earnings which we finished talking about how real earnings are higher. they are looking at the service sector. those three things, they are improving. you cannot deny it. i don't think it is enough for the fed to say