david rosenberg, i wanted to talk to you.f you were maintaining the bearish recession call as it has just not materialized. >> it hasn't materialized, dot, dot, dot, yet. i'm confident to hear from toronto. if it doesn't snow in december then we'll just call off winter. there are lags that we all know, long and variable policy lags, and the reality is that when you look historically from the time of the first rate hike by the fed to the time the recession starts, it's typically two years. so i think that maybe the people that were jumping the gun calling for recession this year were just basically a little too impatient t. reminds me of the recession calls in 2007. that was a very long, soft landing. but it the recession started december of '07. so i think we just have to basically acknowledge that this year the economy did better than expected for two reasons, sarah. we had the lingering impact of the stimulus and a consumer credit card boom. with fiscal tail winds moving to head winds, how they will be responding. the fourt

david rosenberg in toronto. of this. that is from the greatness inflation -- the great david rosenberg. jonathan: let's get to the u.k.. bank is done. out with their call from mr. george but lee says the bank of england on hold tomorrow after the bank surprise the cpi so we thought downsize a prize on inflation it would mean potentially a coin flip. nomara says no hike. gottman says no hike. jordan rose chester looking for 1.22. tom: is it stagflation less growth as david rosenberg loose to their? there is this trend off of data, i guess it is data dependency, but it really harkens how does it fold over to the growth call? jonathan: lisa mentioned this earlier this morning. if you get a better growth profile because the central banks back off, is that sterling positive or negative? she said it was ambiguous. tom: i go with the ambiguity. let's dive into the fed meeting. our full coverage from washington and london. michael mckee joins us. for jerome powell, what is his chief ambiguity? michael: the fed does not

i had a conversation with longtime economist david rosenberg this morning.e does not buy into the idea we are in a sticky inflation environment and we will be in for a rude awakening for next year. can you give us your current assessment about how the fight against inflation is going and whether that is something we have to be giving more thought to at a time when we are trying to determine if rates will be higher for longer? torsten: the data this morning on pce speaks for itself. 3.7 and a 3.9 on headline and core inflation. said target is through percent -- is 2%. so, we are still substantially above the fed's 2% target. that is why it makes sense for the fed to communicate clearly we are higher for longer. in my view i think the cost of capital permanently higher. we are in a situation, not necessarily where inflation will be a problem for many many years. but we are showing the last mile in terms of getting inflation all the way down to 2% will be very difficult. remember last summer, inflation peaked at 9.1%? today we are at three point 5%-4%. but gett

david rosenberg, thank you very much. good to talk to you. and there is -- it's a good debate on wall street, hard and soft landing. >> as for today's take, degrading. ten years close to cycle highs. vix close to 19. dollar the highest since november. we'll watch it this afternoon into micron. to the judge. >>> carl, thanks very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the road ahead for stocks, which are now on pace for their worst month of the year. the investment committee mapping up their strategies for the month ahead. joining me for the hour today everybody here at post 9, joe terranova, jenny harrington, jason snipe, and jim lebenthal. let's check the markets, see what we're doing today. we're red across the board as you can see. the dow down 136, the s&p a quarter of a percent, the nasdaq is weaker. there's the ten-year note yield, 4.58. so, joe, we're headed for the worst month of the year, as i said, but here is something from bespoke. this is how i want to kick off the conversation. the

. >> and why david rosenberg says

you have to break it down like david rosenberg would do. the rest of it is going the other way, three-month annualized. lisa: not car insurance. tom: it is very threeish. jonathan: is that what we are calling it? lisa mentioned 35% higher than august 2021, 7% from a year ago. terry haines joining us next on the looming uaw strike from new york city, good morning. ♪ >> we are making progress at the negotiating tables. as you heard, we are very far apart on our key priorities. to win, we are likely to take action. we are preparing to strike these companies in a way they have never seen before. jonathan: the deadline is midnight tonight. that was sean fain outlining the plans to strike against the three automakers. an offer from uaw of a 36% pay raise. ford proposed 20% raises. gm offering 18%. the land is offering 17.5%. that is to a widespread, can we close it? tom: how teamsters was that? the teamsters thing changed the debate, the tone, the body language. this guy knows he has his union behind him. jonathan: has he got the president behind