. >> well, on that note, let's pick up with david rosenberg, president at rosenberg research joining us on the phoneline today. i don't know if you caught our discussion just now, but he makes a compelling case why we're going to dodge the downturn, at least for the time being. >> well, kelly, thanks for having me on. i don't know why anybody would think that we necessarily dodged the downturn. the last thing i would do is extrapolate 2023 to 2024, and there's people like him that were extrapolating 2007 and 2008 and got their heads sliced off or extrapolating 2000 and 2001, getting their heads sliced off. we've been in a soft landing for at least a year, but the soft landing is just that transition stage of the business cycle, a bring from the expansion phase to the contraction phase, which will be next year's story. i believe that is why all the fed talked about at the tuesday meeting, and the only thing they talked about was how far and how fast will we be cutting rates in the next two years? the stock market is only looking at rates are going to come down without thinking -- they

david rosenberg writes of a tepid nominal gdp.the same time dan ives and joel fishbein at the truest go back to and three years on technical excellence. can our technology lead continue the optimism on the american economy? >> that's a tough question. i hope so. productivity is notoriously difficult to process. it raises the capacity for the economy to grow without stoking inflation which takes a lot of pressure off the fed. >> the last few months you have been locked in. some other people are lacking. what's the framework you are used to seeing things a bit more clearly over the last few months. >> you mentioned earlier powell sounded different a couple weeks ago. to me the die has been cast for this for a little bit of time now. that's because inflation is slowing more rapidly than expected. i think the fed is following a rules-based framework where they are taking changes in inflation and translating that to expectations around the federal funds rate. that's basically what's happening and what they did yesterday. so core inflat

i want to show you something this is work from david rosenberg, by the way who is absolutely brillianthis work shows at 3.8, again this is the fed's number, i want to go back here, the fed's rate 3.8 with respect to the, right here. so he's saying 3.8 if, you take that extrapolate it, nominal gdp growth he still says he has a 90% chance of recession. maybe the party started too soon. still all in all the street loved what they saw yesterday. again this marks the official start of the pivot. bonds have come down. the one year, the two-year, of course, there is a 10-year on to 3%. here is something to consider folks, and it is really odd, this need, the wall street need for a pivot hasn't really been great for stocks. look at all the triangles, those are the pivots. these are the reactions every time. the market gotten hammered on some of these pivots. pivot hammered. why do we want a pivot. of course right now investors are singing happy days are here again but for how long? i want to bring in bianco research president jim bianco. jim, the tone of yesterday's press conference was sort o

tom: i was just reading david rosenberg. the inflation report that will push up the mother ball jerome powell inflation statistics .5% airfare, car insurance. sarah: we will have to look through the noise but it will all matter. there'll be a lot of focus on core services x housing and housing itself which will continue to moderate. you have to pay attention to the totality of what is going on. jonathan: three-part story wednesday. can you give us the guide? sarah: we are expecting a very little change in the statement but we are expecting powell to constantly changes communication from how high to how long the of the summary of economic projections and also via the press conference. they will be taking a. down for this year -- they will be taking a dot down for this year. they left a mark inflation down to 3.5% next year, 20 basis points lower. he will have to keep pushing back they are not yet talking about easing policy. jonathan: does the 2024 dot opera kies -- does the toy 24 d -- sarah: it does make his job very diffic

entire rally, has been the inflation story and the disinflation story just how far how fast, david rosenberghe six month annualized which is what a lot of sophisticated economists, including at the fed and treasury are looking at to smooth over what's happening with inflation. core pce deflator. this is six month annualized. look how far it's come down. this is the progress that the fed wanted to see on the back of the rate hikes. this is the progress the market has wanted to see. and the big thing, it comes without a recession or spike in unemployment. if you go back to the surveys this time last year, 80% of economists in the surveys expected a recession or a downturn to happen in 2023. it didn't happen. >> at some point the fed's own staff of economists were talking about a recession. and the fed itself didn't expect inflation to be where it is today. and the fed itself didn't expect growth to be as strong as it is today either. you know, let's see if we can avoid a surprise in 2024 where the pce deflator is going in the right direction towards target that you don't want any sort of rever

david rosenberg posted that in his note today down to just 2%. the fed has to be happy with that.'s no signs that people are worried about inflation being out of control. the contrary, going back to target. you see this in the five-year as well, you see this in the five-year tips rate. all the inflation expectations where the fed wants to make sure it's anchor red are showing a me lower. >> there's good support. shout out to jeremy siegel, our friend at the university of pennsylvania, who months ago, many months ago, said watch the housing component. it's a lagging, the way the fed is measuring it, lagging. you want to look at other modern indicators like that zillow index, which seems to indicate the numbers are going to be going down. >> yep. >> so that's going to be the key story. who is right here? and it's probably both are right. the fed is a lag. the fed's measure of housing is lagging indicator, more accurate, more up-to-date measurements like the zillow index, seem to indicate the numbers are starting to come down. there's your story. we'll know in three or four months ho

tom: david rosenberg is brilliant on this. it is simple.. lower prices, it is great. i ordered groceries yesterday off the computer, it was outrageous. i ordered dog food, it is outrageous. that is what people are feeling. jonathan: a lot of this people in the country totally agree with what you just said and yet we are still having a conversation on wall street in that rate cuts next year so that's talk about the rate cuts next year. and a lot of people out there think that perhaps you add an additional two. his direction enough if the fed moves toward you but doesn't get there, is that enough? tom: they are going to wait for the data. michael mckee with great leadership on that. let's get to the data, i've got a bit of green on the screen. spx within 1% of total return. jonathan: getting a ton of targets on the s&p for 2024. john stole foods of oppenheimer, the most bullish at 5200. not far behind calling for 5000 expecting a slow first half at a rally into year-end. down the other end, 4200 on the s&p year-end is the call over a jp morga

tom: david rosenberg in toronto as well. can the bank of canada bring back the montreal canadiens?a good producing mining segment. canada for generations has had a productivity less efficient and surprisingly diminished from the united states efficiency. those will be the two overlays that will be the difference. jonathan: the housing market is different as well. tom: why different. if -- way different. jonathan: if you are just joining us, five weeks of gains on the s&p this week. 4.2549. last week, a whole lot lower across the curve. tom: you watched the highlights? jonathan: i don't watch no football at all. lisa: i watched the highlights. tom: they look great. thank you for emailing that or whatever, but mohammed mentioned it as well. jonathan: it is about liverpool. you should know that. tom: what is it about the kit? lisa: everybody hates manchester city. i did not watch them. i watched the highlights. i watch them the way tom keene watches them. tom: thank you. jonathan: did not like the gray jerseys. tom: i like the brown. come on. jonathan: would you like the email address

arguments hold water in a moment with chuck rosenberg, but first, we will exclusively speak with hunter biden's attorney, abbe lowell. let's lay out what davidss says he found. there are nine counts in the 56 page indictment, including three felony counts, accusing biden of engaging in a four-year scheme to willfully avoid paying $1.4 million in taxes. instead, using that money on, quote, drugs, escorts, and girlfriends, luxury hotels, and rental properties, exotic cars, clothing and more. from the indictment, a $1,500 venmo payment to an exotic dancer at a club. the exotic dancer had not sold him any art work. health care benefits to girlfriends, quote. these payroll expenses were treated as business expenses. college tuition for his daughter, quote, the professional and outside service schedule included a $30,000 payment to columbia university. and some $43,000 at chateau marmont which was just a portion of the nearly $134,000 spent on hotels. incredibly, some of the most damming details in the indictment do not come from any investigation but from hunter biden himself. descriptions that are pulled straight from biden's own memoir, includi

rosenberg, members of the board, mr. longway. thank you for the opportunity to present my appeal . my name is tom metz, and i own 51 prosper street with my husband, david brightman. we live in apartment five. we bought this property in this location specifically because of my disability. and specifically so we could age in place. i have a progressive motor neuron disease, and i have been been getting weaker for 43 years. it is reaching an urgent stage. i'm trying to merge our apartment number five with the one directly above us, apartment two. apartment two is not being demolished. we are not removing any living space. we are not changing the footprint of the building or either apartment. apartment two is not being taken off the market. the renter and apartment two moved out voluntarily with no prompting from me. if you approve my appeal, i will replace the kitchen in apartment two with a bedroom. please note for a year now, the planning department has been referring to the kitchen in apartment five. nothing is happening to the kitchen in number five. that's incorrect. if you approve my appeal, it will permit me to have live in assistance when it becom