to look at the data joining us is david rosenberg of rosenberg research. let's take a step back. n a recession or about to confront one. i know everyone is on tenterhooks because of weekly jobless claims numbers, which quite often contain a bit of noise. coming off what could have been hurricane distortion from the previous week. however, i would say what is tried and true is the unemployment rate. the unemployment rate is up .9% over the past 15 months. the data going back to 1948 shows we had 12 recessions and when you are up 90 basis points or more in the unemployment rate you go into recession 100% of the time. i am not one of those people that would say to you is different this time. i do not think it is in today's jobless claims numbers, we will get a fresh batch, it not change my view. dani: i will push you on this and i am sure it is something you've heard multiple times. the argument of you being wrong goes like this. the uptrend is about immigration. torsten slok out with a note saying more visas are being accepted, there's is been a covid backlog and that adds to eviden

david rosenberg from the jewish socialist group on an anti-far right demonstration was interviewed casting doubt saying the following. "tommy robinson will take money from wherever he can, he gets money from american sources, he gets money from canadian sources, it gets money from from pro israel sources, but but of course the us and canada groups he mentions are run and financed by fanatical zionists. the talking points also influenced the way in which anti-fascist groups respond, so inventially objections were made to leaflet saying get fascists, racist. nazists, zionists and islamophobes out offenchly. the new zionist mp for the area, sarah sackman, who previously worked directly as a lawyer for the zianist regime, condemn what she said falsely were clearly anti-semitic posts. shockingly, the left-wing group stand up to racism have come in for criticism for turning off the microphone a young muslim woman a demonstration in oxford. she was audibly told this is... not a palestine demo. reports of similar cowtowing to zinanism came from many other parts of the country, including from inter

david rosenberg from the jewish socialist group on an anti-far right demonstration was interviewed casting doubt saying the following: tommy robinson will take money from wherever he can, he gets money from american sources, he gets money from canadian sources, it gets money from from pro israel sources, but but of course the us and canada groups he mentions are run and financed by fanatical zionists. the talking points also in influence the way in which anti-fascist groups respond, so infinilly objections were made to leaflet saying get fascists, racists, nazis, zionists and islamophobes out offenchly. the new zionist mp for the area, sarah sackman, who previously worked directly as a lawyer for the zionist regime, condem what she said falsely were clearly anti-semitic posts. shockingly, the left-wing group stand up to racism, come in for criticism for turning off the microphone a young muslim woman a demonstration in oxford. she was audibly told this is not a palestine demo. reports of similar cowtowing to zionism came from many other parts of the country, including from interfaith group

david rosenberg runs rosenberg research. i want you to dive deep into the specifics here, david. pce came in where it is expected. you got unemployment holding steady. you have earnings reports that have surprised the upside even if stock performance failed to follow suit. so, where are you seeing warnings? >> well, for one thing you are talking about earnings from the last quarter. it is in the rear view mirror. it is interesting to me you are seeing the stock market go up. earnings estimates for the rest of the year coming down over the course of the past couple of months. no change from the analyst for 2025. so, this has been purely multiple expansion related. you mentioned the consumer and, the consumer is really exceeding expectations, no doubt about it. there is this money divide right now. it is really incredible. after the tax and real terms, growing 1% over the past year and real consumer spending. the follow up from that, we are seeing a relentless decline in the personal savings rate. this time last year savings rate was low at 4.5%. today it is 2.9. it only has been t

david rosenberg joins us.sumer, waiting for revisions to come in, powell on friday. has anything prodded you to tweak your model? >> not really. although the qcw numbers came out showing the nonfarm payrolls were overstated by 676,000. you know, we always trade off whether it's retail sales or nonfarm payrolls, the revisions which are head spinning. which is what caught my eye at the beginning of the year. the fed led by powell saying they're paying more attention to what business was telling them, highlighting the beige book and survey data and the like. >> there's an interesting tweet out of bill gross yesterday in which he posited what he thinks is going on you have wealthy boomers, and upper middle class folks transferring assets to millennials and gen x, do you think that's what's happening? >> you know the -- we get carried away by the latest sales point and the retail number was un1% for july but you look at retail sales volumes on a year over year basis, it's actually fractionally negative year on year

. >> i -- >> david rosenberg in his note this morning, he said, only a fifth of investors, he must be survey, are bearish right now. so, we're getting to levels -- i mean, the way that sentiment has flip-flopped in two weeks is pretty shocking. >>> coming up, shares of dell and micron jumping in today's session. why wall street was loving on the a.i. plays? >>> and weight loss drug coverage could get a whole lot easier. what one digital health company is doing to add some major weight to the space. "fasmoy"s ckn o.t ne iba itw >> earning a degree doesn't have to mean starting from scratch. at university of maryland global campus, it means building your next success on the foundation of life experience. umgc values the successes you've already achieved. that's why you can earn up to 90 credits from prior learning and life and job experience toward our bachelor's degree programs. no application fee if you apply by august 29 at umgc.edu. >>> welcome back to "fast money." dell and micron moving higher today on a pair of bullish calls on their a.i. businesses. barclays upgrading dell, sayi

today we're talking with david casting these national politics corresponded for mcclatchy's and simon rosenberg. a democratic party strategist, thanks to both of you for joining us. let me start with you, david. yeah, i think just a few weeks ago, not only were the polls showing it, but i think donald trump probably felt he had this race down, that he was going to win and prevail or over president biden. what's happened in since those last few weeks? every things happen, um, obviously the big switch, the big swab, it's amazing, go back in 6 months ago. people are saying is could never happen to bind was going to be a nominate. it was a conspiracy theory to think that anyone else would be the democratic nominee. and here we are. we're on day 25, a comma harris has campaign, and i don't think she's had a bad day. the biggest enemy of kama harris has campaign right now, is there's 80 days to go. and as we know, going back to 2016 in particular, a lot can happen in those last 80 days. but man, you couldn't ask for a better 1st 34 weeks going to next week's democratic convention. they probably get a

annmarie: david rosenberg said the fed is ridiculously on the curve.ioned something you're talking about. hourly work is starting to fall off a cliff. he thinks potentially we are in recession. do you share that view? drew: i don't think we're there yet. i'm not sure if it's a question. we all worked together back in the day. we tend to look at the world for what it is. what it is now for an employee, are you going to your boss and asking for more money next year? jonathan: yes. [laughter] drew: when no one is getting hired or fired? no one will put their hand up. that is the part of the equation people are missing. it still affects the dynamics of the labor market and will affect the dynamics of consumption. jonathan: everybody should do that. drew matus, good to see you. let's get an update on stories this morning. yahaira: the u.s., qatar and egypt are calling for a new round of cease fire talks. the latest effort to end the war in gaza. israel said it will send a delegation to the top schedule for next week put hamas did not respond. officials say

david rosenberg thinks it is going to go to 3000 sympathy because people don't trust bonds as a hedgecy for the guidance, so gold is where you hide out. gold hasn't had the best track record of being a place that he could hold out over long periods of time. so isn't now the time, could now be the time that you can hold onto gold as something that protects you instead of something like bombs? >> it hurts my heart a little bit when you say people don't like bonds because i do manage taxable fixed income. i do think you need to have some allocation to bonds in your portfolio. it is a cash flow portfolio. maybe it is not a safe haven in the sense that from the time of purchase to the time of maturity, you don't have market value volatility, you will. but you get a steady cash flow coming from matt. is it ok to have a little bit of gold as a hedge in your portfolio? i think that is fine. do you do a huge allocation shift? i think that is a little much. i don't think anything in the economy is telling us to make that drastic. jonathan: there is one thing you've been saying with runs contrar

today we're talking with david, kept in these national politics corresponded for mcclatchy's and simon rosenberg. a democratic party strategist, thanks to both of you for joining us. let me start with you david. yeah, i think just a few weeks ago, not only were the polls showing it, but i think donald trump probably felt he had this race down that he was going to win and prevail or over president bite. and what's happened in since those last few weeks? every things happen, um, obviously the big switch, the big swab, it's amazing. go back in 6 months ago, people are saying this could never happen. nobody was going to be to nominate it was a conspiracy theory to think that anyone else would be the democratic nominee. and here we are, we're on day 25, a comma harris, his campaign, and i don't think she's had a bad day. the biggest enemy of cala harris's campaign right now is there's 80 days to go. and as we know, going back to 2016 in particular, a lot can happen in those last 80 days. but man, you couldn't ask for a better 1st 34 weeks. going to next week's democratic convention. they probably get