. >> with me now, david sanger. thanks for your time. the first question i have for you is based on all your reporting, how will this transition play out? >> you know, john, nobody knows. the fact that nobody knew that kim jong-il had passed away for 48 hours gives you an idea of how little the top leadership has been penetrated by american intelligence, south korean intelligence and others. but there are sort of three leading theories. one of them is that they'll be some sort of regent appoint who would oversee the son in his late 20s. and see whether or not he is up to the job. he has not had very much training time. his father had 20 years to prepare for the job. the son has one or two. the second theory you heard alluded to. that he would feel it necessary to step out and either sell weapons or do some sort of can provocative act similar to 2010 when it sank a south korean war ship. when it attacked an island. the third theory interesting really scary one, is that is the north korean military would fracture with some supporting the s