david stubbs stays with us. up next, we talk u.s.day. ♪ francine: for more on the markets, david stubbs, jpmorgan strategist is with us. let's start with the chart of the hour. i cheated because i had two charts of the hour. the second one is on the s&p. a lot of debate on whether this bull run can continue. i brought it back to 2007. it has bounced back quite a bit, but it seems like it is in a trading range since 2014 between 1800 and 2200. david stubbs, want to -- what does it mean? first of all, we have jobs data today. you believe the june meeting is live but unlikely interest rate will hike. what does that do to s&p? david: i don't think equity investors should fear rate hikes in this cycle. francine: so no temper tantrum. david: i think what we saw in january and february was part of it, the reaction to the december rate hike. after the first rate hike, equities usually selloff by 8% to 10%. what did the equity market do? it sold off. there are other concerns, oil being the main driver. absolutely, there was part of the worrie

david stubbs, do you sense that divide? d: it is very clear from the polling and anecdotal evidence there is a very strong love for the eu in the younger generation and a willingness to vote for it, and that is the opposite that you see in the older generation. i think this is why the polling situation is somewhat confused. most of it does not control for the likelihood to vote and in almost every country, older people tend to vote at a higher percentage. even if the polls show there is a large victory coming from the remain camp, that does not control for the likelihood that people will go to the poll. i think this is why it will be a close a referendum. tom: caroline, what do you think? we know what side of the divide you are on. what do you think of what the older people will do within brexit? fearine: this is a great factor, exactly that, at the older generation tend to vote and have a more likely desire to exit. the galvin's nation of the youth, this is what we will see galvangalvin's nation -- ization of the youth, thi

caroline: now joining us for .ore is david stubbs -- where do you live when it comes to the u.s.? is the federal reserve desperately trying to talk up two rate hikes? david: the first thing to talk about is the june meeting. 6%, hardly a vote of confidence. i think we will get one rate hike this year. there will be some sort of economic rebound after that week first quarter. eak first quarter. caroline: how global is the federal reserve's perspective likely to remain? they were citing problems in china. how much are they paying attention to brexit risks? i think they will be sensitive to the global central-banks. ,he debt contracts of the world currencies of the world have hinged on the dollar. we are seeing china be a lot more stable. this questions over the long run stability. -- these questions over the long run stability -- america is a fairly closed economy. the main concern for those who -- it wille rates take a number of months for that play out. going to be a fed rate hike, it will be in the second half of this year. betty: what will that do to the dollar? will that be anot

let's bring david stubbs back into the conversation. in terms of everything that is going on with the brexit debate, one thing that comes to mind, we see sterling, we will hear from cameron today, talking about the u.k.'s self-induced recession. a heavy warning in the final days. ed, and i think we will see more of this. i don't think we will see the immediate impact after the vote to leave. we know with a great deal of certainty the market will push down heavily. the uncertainty about what the relationship will be about trading partners will cause a drop in investment. that will have a detrimental impact on the economy. now, whether this will cause a recession or not, it goes down to whatever numbers you plug into your model. the actual direction of travel is fairly clear. what is unclear is the medium-term aspect, after we decide on whatever agreement and whether that is good foor bad for the economy. that is open for the debate. the market is clear on the immediate impact. anna: we have a function on the terminal that tells you every

inoline hyde takes over london and tom keyed in new york and, speaking with jpmorgan's david stubbs.t from the pulse. surveillance is next. i will see you later at 3:00 p.m. ♪ june back endsm: and with it, a june meeting and brexit within austerity. the dollar stronger, gold weaker. yellen andrology trying to drag the market to their collective trying toand draghi drag the market to their collective areas. caroline hyde from london.