joined in a moment, but we want to frame where these equity markets are and where they will go with david wilsong stocks editor, starting out as hot wash coordinator 15, 20 years ago. david: assuming stocks don't fall out of bed today, you are looking at the seventh straight monthly gain. there were 14 earlier instances going back to the 1950's where you saw streaks that long or longer, so what i did, jumping off from their data, was say, ok, how does the s&p 500 perform after you get past the seventh month? and there are three scenarios that may play out. one is the streak ends, the index falls. second, you get a relatively small gain, 3% or less. the other is you make it a gain of 10% or more. tom: a lot of predictive force. >> it is all over the place clearly. you have a relatively even distribution among those three scenarios. given where the market is now, it is hard to figure out where it goes next going back. if you assume stocks will fall, maybe not. tom: going to dr. wilson here in the studio. let's wander over to mark in london here to come to grips with the wall of money. our stocks g

tom: david wilson, thank you so much.from july to september, make it late august 1998, was 9.63%. jonathan: i feel like the last five minutes was you just trolling me. when i say drawdown, i am not talking about a big move. just talking about direction. just coming in a little bit. does that help? we are down a little bit this morning, 0.9%. tom: it is. i don't mean to make light of it. there is so much going on now. and again, i would bring it over almost two shock, china earlier. jonathan: china is the issue now, particularly for europe. we are seeing europe get hit pretty hard. lisa: there have been drawdowns. that was my point, that actually, you are not wrong saying that when you look at specific sectors. i am looking at energy stocks, down nearly 13% since the end of june. you are seeing specific sectors totally get hammered, and this is because of what we are seeing in china. it is being buoyed by the revenue drivers. jonathan: this is from andrew brenner of net alliance. what is going on right now is more than one

tom: david wilson is looking at the fusion-io are renault, he is looking at the fiat of charts. ar coming up on the 50th anniversary of president nixon's decision to break the tie between gold and the dollar. tom: remember that? people were screaming. david: the question is what has happened to gold over that 50-year timeframe? how does it compare to stocks? with the chart does is look at spot gold, immediate delivery relative to the s&p 500 with and without dividends. you get a very different comparison based on what you do with the s&p 500. if you look at just the index itself, gold has been pretty competitive. you find stretches for years or gold had bigger gains. and you put dividends into the equation and it is not even close. you are talking about the s&p 500 generating almost 20,000% return. up to hundredfold. more than three quarters of that is dividends. stocks are a runaway relative to gold over that timeframe. tom: in my book years ago the best charts was from the world bank. it was such a strong chart. it was deflation is over. the idea of the dynamics of currencies a

david wilson looking at not the 30 year bond, but the 30 year moonshot known as moderna.30 year moonshot, tom. this company hasn't even been around for 11 years yet, and here we are as a result of the success of their covid nine vaccine, their market value has just taken off. in fact, last week it surpassed strohmeyer squibb, which -- surpassed first omaira squibb, which -- surpassed bristol-myers squibb, which traces its origins back to the late 1800s. it didn't stay above mark because moderna -- above merck because moderna fell yesterday, but it shows you how much things are changing because of the success moderna has had with its messenger rna vaccine for covid-19. it is the best performing stock in the s&p 500 since going in there last month, and how many times have we seen companies go into the s&p 500 and falter, like tesla? tom: thanks for mentioning them in the triple leveraged all-cash fund. is it transitory? dave: that is the question given the magnitude of the gains we have seen. that said, moderna is looking to develop other shots with their technology. they a

tom: david wilson, thank you so much.e it today that may -- today on a chart that may even be more interesting come december. the vix at 17.19. jonathan: yields in four basis points on tens. real smart audience we have on a program what this. and an institutional following as well. this from an institutional investor, greg peterson of pgim. "massive cut in treasury supply is a huge story. it completely neutralizes the taper and then some. not enough focus on the massive cut. just pgim's view. tom: let's stop the show here. who is greg eaters, folks? greg peters is massively award-winning over a long duration. so say that quote again as we have the attention into mr. tipp . "massive cut in treasury supply is a huge story. it completely neutralizes the taper and then some. not enough focus on the massive cut." tom: a lot of folks watching us, trying to get ready for the morning. greg peters trades off of what he hears on the show. jonathan: together with rubber tip -- with robert tipp. tom: off of lisa abramowicz today, he

right now, david wilson with us on the record highs in the record level of the record s&p. >> fridayding day of 2021. we have 100 more to go. 44 records for the s&p 500 through friday. the most recent one was on friday. if you look at the current pace and extrapolate out to the end of the year. you are talking about 74 record highs for the index. that's about the most you've seen in any year since the s&p 500 was first calculated. tom: are we numbed by 10% corrections never happening? >> 10%? there hasn't been a 5% drop in the s&p 500 from a high since november. that certainly plays -- lisa: 90 days. >> that's what we are seeing the succession of records as much as anything is stocks aren't going down that much when they fall. so when they bounce back it doesn't take a whole lot to get them the records again. lisa: the s&p 500 has not had a 5% drawdown over the past 190 days, but it's not the most notable thing. the s&p 500 has risen at an annualized place -- pace at 46%. you have a record in terms of the pace of gain. is this bearish in that it cannot continue and had to reverse som

matt: thanks very much, david wilson with your stock of the hour.e going to discuss the crisis in afghanistan with hugo llorens, who chirped -- who served as chief of mission in kabul. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton. nato says it is committed to helping anyone at risk leaving afghanistan following the u.s. military exit from the country. secretary-general spoke today with bloomberg television. >> the airport in kabul is a vital link to the world to get humanitarian aid in but also to enable safe passage for those who want to leave. nato allies have strongly stated that we will not forget all those who are still in afghanistan who supported us and who are at risk and we will continue to work to ensure they can leave afghanistan. mark: he added that nato allies have the capability of conducting long-range strikes against terrorist groups in afghanistan. the death toll from ida has climbed to at least four. a fifth person in louisiana missing and presumed dead after being attacked by an alligator while walking in floodwaters. more than on

here is david wilson. >> it's interesting to see financial stocks surpass energy last week to becomerformers this year among the s&p 500 11 main industry groups and along the way, we've seen a reestablishing of the traditional relationship between financial stocks and bond yields. when yields go higher, that means financial companies can make more money down the line. i looked at a 20 day correlation between the s&p 500 financials index and the 10 year treasury yield which ended last week at the highest reading since june of last year but go back a couple of months and you see it was negative which doesn't happen that often. tom: so they are back in line? >> exactly. you have to go back to december 2016 to see that correlation. tom: do you as a grizzled veteran look at financials as homogenous or do you partition them into big banks, regionals and the smaller banks? >> i think you have to separate to some extent and understand the different dynamics. you think about the biggest banks and they are more associated with trading revenue than the smaller ones and that tends to be more vol

david wilson considers dividends. >> it's something they tracked over from that strategy there.as take a look at the exchange trader funds tracking various stock indexes to see where the dividend yield is now relative to 20 before the pandemic kicked in. a lot of companies cut or eliminated payouts. tom: but the prices as well. >> absolutely there are two sides to the asian but he's basically saying that if you look at the s&p 500, focusing on the ishares, if you look at that one that tracks the s&p 500, dividend yield of roughly 1.3%, a couple of years back it was one point or percent and it wasn't far to go to get back to where it was historically. looking around the world it's a wider gap that's especially true in emerging markets. the chinese company's biggest piece of the index was already powered and it isn't yet what it was a couple of weeks ago. tom: does cash flow give us sustained dividend increases? >> it looks that way when you look at companies, earnings are up with anticipation of further growth in the third in fourth quarters and companies piled up a lot of cash,

david wilson is looking at the details. this is a stock that has really taken off since march of last year when the bull market began. today it is heading for his biggest gains since that time. at one point this shares more than tripled. they peaked in may and came back down. it is interesting to see the gain. contrast that with home depot after earning schema yesterday. what is the difference is the main question. if you look at earnings and sales, both company's beating analyst average estimates on the bloomberg survey. they had a similar shift in their sales. fewer transactions, larger amounts per sale suggesting the business is moving more towards contractors and away from do-it-yourselfers. lowe's talked about weekend by being down, which is consistent with that idea. you have to really focus on profitability. it's emerging as a theme as companies report quarterly results. lowe's could match and estimates on that particular indicator. home depot came up about half a percentage point. lowe's anticipating his profit marg

david wilson considers china.cifically, the weight that chinese stocks of all kinds have and the msci emerging markets index. we know the story of the past month and the past six months is how chinese companies listed in the u.s. have taken a tumble. you've got the nasdaq open dragon china index, one benchmark for that group, down 25% for the year. you had a spill over into stocks traded on the mainland and also in hong kong. the msci china index is down 12%. put that together with the rest of the emerging markets in msci's benchmark gauge, and basically you have an index that is little changed while the s&p 500 is up 17%. what really jumps out is looking at china stocks before this year. you have seen their weight and the msci emerging markets index go up for 10 years and around, and last year -- 10 years in a row, and last year go above the peak wafer tech stocks in the s&p 500. tom: who determines the weighting of the pacific rim index? dave: it is how many shares they include within the index that are free to

david wilson, thank you so much.we thought we would parachute in mike mcglone on bitcoin, including his latest junket to florida to see the marlins, i think it was. this is on bitcoin. i am sort of surprised at $38,000 bitcoin, given the regulation ferment that is out there. are you surprised at bitcoin's resiliency as maybe we get the gensler coin? [laughter] mike: bitcoin is a discounted bull market. it has put in a good base around that $30,000 level. it has good resistance around $40,000. at the new regulation is very profound because the u.s. is basically embracing it with regulation. china is pushing back, banning it. to me, it is a new cold war developing, and that is good for bitcoin. if the u.s. is not going to do much to it, the key things that are securities are digital dollars area that is the key thing to remember, the most widely traded cryptos on the planet are digital versions of the dollar. tom: if bitcoin is not a currency, i think we can agree it is not gold, and gensler is saying it is not a secur

part of david wilson's expertise in his book is a huge respect for at least studying what was canon ands, going back to richard russell and a guy named joseph granville. no one cares anymore except dave wilson. dave: i wouldn't go that far. i am sure that liz ann sonders cares over at charles schwab because today's chart is a version of one she had out yesterday. looking at the s&p 500, which is just setting record after record, relative to a cumulative ad line, for stocks listed on the new york stock exchange. the stoxx is important because you can do the same thing with n.y.c. securities, which -- with in why is he securities -- the stocks is important because you can do the same thing with nyse securities. it has been falling a bit since then. even though it has come back lately, we are talking about period since june 8 when the s&p 500 has set records 20 times, with the latest one yesterday. so the concern here is that there is a bit of a divergence going on that perhaps signals that the strength we are seeing in the s&p 500 is not necessarily all it is cracked up to be. tom: what i

tom: david wilson, thank you so much, with a chart floating around on the zeitgeist right now.on the bloomberg. gina martin adams, bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist. it is upgrade time. the people cautious are lifting estimates. mostly based off of earnings. what is the earnings integrity right now? gina: it is actually quite excellent. what is happening with earnings is largely driven by what is happening with revenue growth, and revenue growth is running at about a 20% pace you're on your. what we are seining -- what we are seeing in terms of the earnings stream is analysts starting to capitulate to what will be a sustainable recovery and earnings growth. will we see 20% revenue growth into perpetuity? no. but analysts are forecasting that we will roughly average 10% revenue growth over the next few quarters. so certainly a sustainable uptrend in earnings has been part of the optimism that has emerged in equity prices over the last six to 12 months. lisa: it is a good day to try to worry about something or other, so how much do you worry about the jackson hole me

bloomberg senior stocks editor david wilson joining us now to dig into the move.ou talk about a group that has been beaten up over the past six months, the u.s. listed shares of chinese companies, american depositary receipts certainly qualify. the nasdaq golden dragon index has fallen as much is 50% over that period. it is now starting to bounce back a bit, and it really began to recover on friday, when we saw the index moving up, and we also saw that there was some money moving into mutual funds that focused on these kind of companies. specifically, the csi china internet fund had its biggest inflows on friday. in fact, the second-biggest inflow among all exchange traded funds at hind -- funds behind only the invesco qqq for the nasdaq 100 index. that certainly gets your attention. beyond that, you have to ask, what has changed this week? you look at jd.com, one of the biggest online retailers in china. they came out with results yesterday that went over well with investors. today, another company took off even though it's numbers didn't quite measure up to what

david wilson, what do you have?i am looking at is what folks at gmo are paying attention to, and specifically, share sales by u.s. companies, whether we are talking initial public offerings or subsequent sales. they have really taken off in the past year or so. you can argue whether that is part of the coronavirus pandemic , but basically, the concern is that we are well above where we were at the peak back in 2000, all according to data compiled by the federal reserve. tom: share sales or bond sales? dave: share sales, equity. there's a bit of a lag to it because the most recent data covers march. you are talking about 12 months basically an average over time. total it up, and you look at we were this past march, $26 billion over a 12 month period, 60% up since 2000. tom: the gmo has been very cautious over the years. do they still maintain tentativeness? dave: they are concerned about what lies ahead. the share sales, when the ducks are quacking, feed them seems to be the philosophy at this point. that is a concer

so bring back devon malan and bring on some different kinds of fireworks —— david malan. joe wilsonith thousands desperately trying to flee the country. over the past week, we've touched on what it could mean for afghan sport. istiqlal hanif came to britain as a refugee at the age of 11 — he's now 20 and an ambassador for the afghan cricket association, where he continues to help youngsters in his community to play the game. grown definite dust growing up in afghanistan just wasn't easy. there were no other places to play cricket instead of street cricket. and even when you played at home inside, you are breaking most of the windows, which my family wasn't happy about. when afghanistan made it to professional cricket, there is no telly outside so we had to listen to the radio. when i first got in i couldn't speak english at all. i joined the high school then slowly, my english was getting better. the other students weren't as good at me —— as mia cricket. they asked me if we could make our own team, and i said yes, i would love that to happen. they made me the captain, as well. is a

wilson spend the rebels half pressed into a far region, which is in the east of horror in the south of the country, forcing over 250000 people to flee. david chin was a us ambassador to ethiopia and a former deputy chief of mission at the american mc. c. john, he explains why the t p left may have wanted to target this particular location. i don't think there is any particular military value to the capture of la bella, by the grand defense forces. the town is not far from the gray borders. it's not a long distance for them to go to me. the only explanation would be the fact that very early on in the conflict back in november of last year, the militia and the sample government forces captured the world heritage site of ox, which is the location of the, the auction, former oxen kingdom, inside western te gray and they, they still hold that location up to the present day. it is very difficult for the grand forces to know apparently recapture ox own. so i think they probably made a decision to take lolly, bella, and are using this as a tit for tat mode that we will need long bela, if you got us back. ok, so the 2 grand defense forces are great

david petraeus. we are doing our best to draw lessons that are upfront in real time. h.r., thank you for your time. h.r.: thank you for the great work the wilsonenter does. >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government funded by these television companies and more. >> the world changed and media com was ready. we powered a new reality. we are built to keep you ahead. >> mediacom supports c-span along with these other television providers. >> c-spanshop.org is c-span's online store. browse to see what is there. you still have time to order the congressional directory with contact information for members of congress and the biden administration. >> next, homeland security secretary alejandro mayorkas. he announced more than 212,000 migrants were stopped at the border in july, and increased from june. this is about 40 minutes. sec. mayorkas: good afternoon, and thank you very much for being here today. i

david. i couldn't believe it it it gave me such wonderful insights and so forth and i, outside of this i want to thank douglas wilson wonderful manuscript and all my family that t stuck by through thick ad then it was a great challenge and great fun. working on her book on creativity andan science of the humanities and when my manuscript was finished she sat down and read through chapter by chapter and was a wonderful commentator so thank you so much. walt whitman and his wonderful poem, his eulogy written after the douglas lincoln describes lincoln as the great western star eliminating a landscape and in a sense that's what lincoln was always to me. this kind of beautiful, wonderful star but also a little bit removed and someone inaccessible. i didn't see him very well attached to his contemporary culture and then i spent years thinking about it as the greatest literary period in american literary history. emerson, thoreau, hawthorne, walt whitman and then a such suh wonderful figures as frederick douglass. beecher stowe, just too much going on in a wonderful period. in they didn't know about lincoln at all but the

winner ofin the lincoln prize ad david who were kind enough to read my long manuscript and gave me what -- such wonderful insight. outside of kunio want to thank r. wilson and above all my family who is stuck through t thick and thin d it was both a great challenge but great fun to be recognized in the book world and my wife suzanne was working on her book on creativity and the humanities. when my manuscript just finish he had read through chapter by chapter and was just a wonderful commentator so thank you so much. i was going to say walt whitman in his eulogy written after the death of lincoln he describes how lincoln is the great western star of a limiting the landscape. in a sense that's what lang can always was to me, this kind of beautiful wonderful star but also a a little bit removed but somewhat inaccessible. i don't didn't see them attached toto his contemporary culture tn i spent years thinking about that culture. after all it was the greatest literary period in american literary history. emerson thoreau hawthorne poe emily dickinson or walt whitman and many wonderful figures such as frederick douglas harriett beecher stowe and john brown wil

wilson's control that might have shaped this. >> i'm sorry. one more thing. forgive me for interrupting, i just saw something in david patterson's note. the german archives on this stuff are very strong and have been strong, are excellent, but it does help to be able to read german. which actually really very few of the american scholars ever really tried to get -- but then they didn't know to look at it because they didn't know it was an issue. i'm sorry to have interrupted. >> you not at all. so one is a question, you know, where is the guns of august and all this, which i take to mean, you know, how does the -- the whole system of rivalries and everything that helps us explain to the degree that we can the outbreak of the war, is there -- is there maybe kind of an inertia still going on that narrows this window even as it's opened, and then another factor that you address very -- very directly, but maybe could be expanded upon, you've got a question about what was house's -- what was edward house's goal, his, you know -- why was he dissembling, why was he not open with wilson? and then i hope you will save time just to give your ki

david who were kind enough still on the screen i still didn't believe it and i gave wonderful insights and edits andgh so for. i want to thank wilsonad the manuscript and above all, my family who stuck by me through thick and thin and it was a great challenge and also great fun. my wife was working on her book when my manuscript was finished, she sat down and very carefully read through chapter by chapter was just a wonderful commentator. so thank you, thank you so much. walt whitman and his wonderful eulogy written out after the death of lincoln describes lincoln as the great western star illuminating the landscape and in a sense, that's what lincoln always was to me, this kind of beautiful, wonderful star but also a little bit removed and someone inaccessible. it was the greatest literary period in history. emerson, thoreau and then the wonderful figures of frederick douglass, harriet beecher stowe and of course there was john brown, william lloyd garrison. walt whitman in 1856 fantasized about a president coming from across the alleghenies from the west and he didn't know about lincoln at all but he said shrewd working person, h

wilson's control that might have shaped this. one about -- >> sorry. one more thing, forgive me for interrupting i saw something in david patterson's notes. the german archives on the stuff for very strong and have been strong and our excellent. it does help to be able to reach the front. which very few of the american scholar is ever really try to get to. they didn't know to look at it because they didn't know it was an issue. sorry to have interrupted -- >> not at all. one is a question where are the guns of august and all this which i take to mean how does the you know wholesome of rivalries and everything that helps us explain sort of the degree to weekend the outbreak of the war. is there may be a kind of an inertia still going on that narrows this window even as it's opened? and another factor you address very directly but maybe could be expanded the font we've got a question about what was houses edward houses goal? his -- why was he dissembling? why was he not open with wilson? and then i hope you will save time just to give your two or three minute summit of argument about why this is important to us today? or

wilson's control that might have shaped this. >> oh, i'm sorry, just one more thing. forgiving me for interrupting. i saw something in david patterson's note. the german archives on this stuff have been very stopping and are excellent, but it does help to be able to read engineer non-. very few of the american scholars ever really tried to get -- but they didn't know to look at it because they didn't know it was an issue. are i'm sorry to have interrupted. >> no, not at all. not at all. where is the guns of august in all of this which i take to mean how does the whole system of rivalries and everything that helped us explain and the degree that we can, the outbreak of the war, is there may be kind of an inearthia still going on that narrows this window even as it's opening and then another factor that you addressed very directly but maybe could be expanded upon. you've got a question about what was house's -- what was edward house's goal, his -- you know, why was he dissembling? why was he not open with wilson and then -- and then i hope you'll save time just to give your kind of two or three-minute, you know, summery argu

wilson will vote yes on h.res. 601. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from new jersey seek recognition? >> as the member designated by ms. davids of kansas, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that ms. davids will vote yes on h.res. 601. the speaker pro tempore: for what purpose does the gentleman from california seek recognition? mr. correa: mr. speaker, as the member designated by congress member cardenas, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that congress member cardenas will vote yes on h.res. 601. mr. speaker, as the member designated by congress member raul ruiz, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that congress member ruiz will vote yes on h.res. 601. mr. speaker, as the member designated by congress member vargas, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that congress member vargas will vote yes on h.res. 601. mr. speaker, as the member designated by congress member napolitano, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that congress member napolitano will vote yes on h.res. 601. mr. speaker, as the member designated by congress member norma torres, pursuant to h.r. 8, i inform the house that norma torres will vote --