david wilson's matrix is an act of god. the contagion is there.athan: the big question, we started with it at the getting of the show. the main risk, even if you address the financial risk, do you end up needing an economic risk? lisa, i think most would agree that you do. lisa: the property sector has been cooled dramatically. jonathan: session lows, we are down 71. -1.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. >> the little before the storm before the fed needs to act and do something. >> this is the perfect time because things are so quiet. >> we have very accommodative financial conditions now. they will probabl

tom: the electricity of david wilson, bloomberg stock editor, calendar item november beckons. ed, and it is the end of the six-month period that has been traditionally bad. so in may, stay away. tom: is that working this year? david: u.s. stocks have been going up, but they kind of put numbers, dollar amounts to the pattern over time, starting with a $10,000 investment back in 1950, looking at the six months that begin in may relative to the six months that begin in november. there is no comparison in terms of performance. if you only invested starting may, you would end up with about $78,000 on total returns. instead, if you only invested beginning november, about $3 million. tom: $3 million versus 78,000 dollars, but with the crisis in the united kingdom and france, what is so important is your wonderful chart, for on radio, these are straight lines. david: they pretty much are, no question, but you have an even bigger line if you are invested all 12 months. as bannister points out, you would have close to $25 million on a $10,000 investment if you had stayed in the s&p 500 s

david wilson is joining us with a chart. what do you have today?the s&p 500 on since the 9/11 attacks of 20 years ago and compare that to what it did in the previous 20 years. when you do that, you find out we've done fairly well over the past 20 years with the s&p 500 delivering an annualized gain of 7.3%. it's nothing like what we saw in the previous 20 years. you are talking 1981-2001. you saw a gain of 11%. to understand why, maybe have to look at the way the index is changed in terms of the biggest companies. go back 20 years. look at the top five most heavily weighted stocks. general electric, which has struggled over the past two decades, microsoft, the only of the top five then which is a top five now. it has had its issues over the years. exxon mobil, it has faded along with fossil fuels. pfizer hasn't kept up in terms of valuation with a lot of it's peers alone the water market. citigroup took a hit in the financial crisis. perhaps that is as much as anything that explains the gap in performance. it is a pretty yawning gap. tom: what is t

right now, we are going to rush to david wilson and important observations on china. >> i saw a twitteray from compound advisors comparing the market value of alibaba with walmart. you look back several months, alibaba had a much higher value. that has turned around. it is really a function of what we have seen in terms of the efforts to kind of rein in chinese, tech driven companies. you have alibaba down 54% from its peak last october. you are talking about a year and this company, which was twice the size of walmart when you look at market value back then, is now even smaller now. walmart is pretty much right there. tom: one final question in our busy segment here. now what for alibaba? do we have visibility and what they are doing? david: that is the challenge. they have so many pieces of their business. they're having to back away from media because the chinese government is basically telling them they have to. that is the question. it comes down to how much leeway this company can get the government. that will determine what lies ahead for them. jonathan: we will have to -- tom: w

david wilson mentioned fedex. jonathan: we have not mentioned that apart from mr. wilson earlier.they are, weighing on this, kaylee, continued supply chain has slowed u.s. demand compared to the earlier forecast. the current labor environment is in the operation of the network significantly impacting our financial results. there's a lot of stuff to work through for the year-end. kailey: absolutely, kings in the supply chain throughout, and the real shortage of people. the fact that it costs more to have people doing the job. this is the margin compression story. to your point, david and the rest highlighting the earnings story. if the margin suppression is coming in and the changes -- it changes the story, how do you keep the thesis? tom: i love page 42, they have trouble unloading the truck on madison avenue. jonathan: that's traffic this week. tom: there are so many trucks lined up everywhere. you see what they do to the boxes when they come out. throwing them around. it's a crisis. jonathan: they treat tom spotts is a little differently. i have seen it play out. when we lived t

tom: that is david wilson from morgan stanley with a more irish view, but you saw that bit toward the end of the session yesterday which brought to the s&p back from those intraday lows we sell, and the futures pulling up a 5/10 of a percent right now. let's check on the markets for the up-to-date context. in asia, you have china closed for a national holiday, so bear in mind. the nikkei down sharply today, japan laying catch-up. msi i -- the msci asia pacific down. the crypto space is feeling the risk off mood as well, down more than 10%, bitcoin around the $42,000 level. the bloomberg dollar index is just a smidge lower, as you can see. that is being reflected across the fx space. manus: and a big note, they want to be long the dollar to em as a hedge. let's continue the fallout narrative and where we are. evergrande dominated the headlines and juliette saly has the latest. juliette: we are continuing to see evergrande trade at decade lows. also for the day down about 7%. we are looking ahead to thursday when interest on their bonds are due, and a default is likely, and that hasn't

point i'm going to say that they will be bright here, but this year the shock and growth with david wilsonwed the tech performance as well. i don't have a strong opinion here. it's not our goal to give one other than i will say that gmo has been the most nuanced and articulate of the value crew. jonathan: stock market doing ok this morning. advancing even after that adp report. a downside surprise, 600 25 was the x met. cameron christ saying that we have seen this movie before and the trailer for the friday payroll doesn't look good in the previous months was also lousy and it didn't stop payrolls from jumping. i think that point is lost on many this morning. tom: i'm looking at the beautiful elegance of jobless claims and we see that in 24 hours and three minutes. jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance," advancing .4% on the s&p. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with the 98% success rate and the more affordable weight loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. how can golo off

david wilson, our stocks editor. a dream when in 1987 comes up and 1929 as well after 20% gains.after 20% gains through august, 1929 down 32%, any comments? >> look, yet, we are going to have this massive crash, but i think we had adam our phenomenal guest earlier, and they gains have changed come and now what will be the policy response, and it comes to fiscal policy. jonathan: the game has changed. maybe that was too extreme. there are headlines, pouring billions into china is likely a mistake, and that could damage the national security interest of the u.s. and other democracies. our guest joins us now for more on that. your take on that op-ed, which i have to say is more stte -- most read site -- >> this is one of the most dangerous enemies, george soros, but looked a lot of his concerns have been voiced already, shared by many. i will quote something from a ted lasso episode -- [indiscernible] for me i do not think like mutt -- blackrock pours billions into china endlessly, and more portly , the real yields in u.s. and europe, you got to get your yields somewhere, and china

tom: david wilson there with ms. sonders, who will be on later. jonathan: it's maria tadeo on tour.ow to berlin, what are you doing now? maria: we are looking at the german election, and it really is a defining election. we all know that angela merkel is leaving. this is 16 years of angela merkel coming to an end, and germany really is in a defining moment. this is an election that was on automatic pilot for the christian democrats to win, and everything has changed. the social democrats, people thought these guys were dead, now you have olaf scholz really leading in polls. german politics are so complex that this could be a very difficult government. any coalitions could have a safe year, but it is also a huge change of going from a christian democrats chancellor to potentially a social democrat back in power. lisa: has the german reputation of being fiscally conservative come to an end? maria: it could be, but we often hear this time and time again, if you get a social democrat government, germany is going to start spending and you will see a real shift. what we have to factor in

david wilson drives forward the conversation that earnings matter. dave: they absolutely do.looking at a comparison between earnings and stock prices. tom: i'm all-cash. i'm looking. dave:dave: it really depends on your timeframe, what that relationship looks like. keith lerner at truist was pointing out that earnings have grown faster than the s&p this year. if you pull back and look at a little more than a decade going back to 2010, around the time you had a low in earnings, it is a different story. over the course of the past year and half, the bull market we had an u.s. stocks, the s&p 500 has really pulled ahead of the growth in earnings. that is the key point. tom: that is a multiple expansion. dave: you could say it that way. that is one way to look at it. but beyond that, you look at the top performing groups like technology, you go back over the last 10 years, you see a far bigger increase in share prices than you do in earnings. same thing and that consumer discretionary category. retailers, automakers, homebuilders, you name it. then you look at stocks where they a

david wilson breaking down the numbers. over to you.oeing is now talking about $9 trillion in terms of aerospace and defense in the next decade in the markets that it serves. that is up from $8.5 trillion a year ago, $8.7 trillion two years ago, pre-pandemic. and a roughly even split between planes, aircraft services, and defense in space. boeing getting more optimistic because in part, as they put it in a press release, the global market is recovering largely as boeing projected in 2020, so you've got domestic air travel coming back. they figure regional markets will be next. when you talk about long-haul flights, they will be back to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. you put that altogether, that is going to mean demand for more planes. but when looking at $3.2 trillion worth of spending, a little more than 1/3 of the total. 19,000 jets. clearly they are optimistic for the next 10 years beyond that because if you double the numbers, you don't get to what their 20 year projections are at $7.2 trillion in more than 43,000 planes. that number

tom: on the equity markets, david wilson, compare and contrast not the s&p, but the one that matters,and the one that people really care about, the nasdaq 100. dave: absolutely. when you make that comparison, as oppenheimer did over the weekend, you find out the nasdaq 100 is at its highest level relative to the dow since march 2000, and we all remember what happened then in the height of the dotcom years. tom: is it the same now? dave: you can argue that question. certainly technology companies dominate the nasdaq 100. they are represented in the dow as well. let's not forget, apple and microsoft are there. tom: this chart, on radio, it is something to see. dave: gross is beating quality. that is what this ratio suggests . we've seen it move up 16% in the last four months. this is where we got to the point where we are back at the height of thedotcom years. ash the height of the -- the height of the dotcom years. tom: we've got to keep it short today because we are in china, where there is a restructuring as well. right now, let's assess capital structure. into karen ---- enda curran

william eben wilson david harold winton glenn j.e alan l. wisniewski frank paul wisniewski david wiswall sigrid charlotte wiswe michael r. wittenstein christopher w. wodenshek martin phillips wohlforth katherine susan wolf jennifer yen wong siucheung steve wong yin ping wong yuk ping wong brent james woodall james john woods marvin roger woods patrick j. woods richard herron woodwell david terence wooley john bentley works martin michael wortley rodney james wotton william wren, ret. john w. wright, jr. neil robin wright sandra lee wright jupiter yambem >> and my father. we remember his dedication, sacrifices, love, laughter, support, wisdom, humility, and his hard work. he was not just a 9/11 victim and hero, he was a father, husband, brother, and friend and will never be forgotten. we love him. >> and my father. who i never met because my mom was only pregnant with me. thank you for my life, my name, and everything in between. thank you for alex and my mom. i miss you every day and love you so much more. mommy, alex and i miss you

. >> william eben wilson. >> david harold winton. >> glenn j.ski. >> frank paul wisniewski. >> david wiswall. >> sigrid charlotte wiswe. >> michael r. wittenstein. >> christopher w. wodenshek. >> martin phillips wohlforth. >> katherine susan wolf. >> jennifer yen wong. >> siucheung steve wong. >> yin ping wong. >> yuk ping wong. >> brent james woodall. >> james john woods. >> marvin roger woods. >> patrick j. woods. >> richard herron woodwell. >> david terence wooley. >> john bentley works. >> martin michael wortley. >> rodney james wotton. >> william wren, ret. >> john w. wright, jr. >> neil robin wright. >> sandra lee wright. >> jupiter yambem. >> and my father jorge vela zquez. we remember his dedication, sacrifices, love laughter, support. the wisdom and humility in his hard work. he wasn't just a 9/11 victim and hero. he was a father, husband, brother and friend, and he will never be forgotten. we love him. >> and my father. who i never met because my mom was only pregnant with me. thank you for my life, my name, and everything in between.

christopher glenn stark, sean patrick sullivan, philip james, philip david, matthew herbert walker, jeffrey lee white junior, matthew willard wilson cortez junior, sterling william wyatt and gunnar william. mr. president, the sacrifices of so many brave men w and women demand that we and congress bring all of the facts of this long war to light. these sacrifices demand that we and congress prioritize transparency and full accountability. the sacrifices we hold responsible the those who have the blame of the failure of the last month and all the months that preceded it. for 20 years they did but we sent them there to do. theyou went after al qaeda, killed osama bin laden and prevented terrorists from using afghanistan as a base for attacking our homeland. they did their duty. now it is abundantly clear presidentn biden has not done his. president biden turned in orderly evacuation into a disaster. not much is painfully clear. first, joe biden pulled her troops out and then he that sent thousands back in pretty failed to protect american still in the country. he failed to account for lethal military equipment he left behind, he fail

where to find opportunity in the international market when we talk to harris associates david herro and mike wilsonghs in on the market volatility and why investors should stay defensive. as we head to break, a check on bonds. 10-year yield hovering around 1.48%. crossed above 1.5% earlier today. yields higher across the board stay with us what the world needs now... is people. people who see things... just a little bit differently. who go out of their way to find a new perspective and a new way forward. because seeing a smarter, healthier, cleaner world isn't something that's far in the future. it's something we're building... now. ge. building a world that works. >>> welcome back you can see the dow continues its out performance. it is off the session high which is up to 263 s&p lower by about 0.1%. nasdaq down. energies, financials outperforming which is in large part why the dow is jut performing the nasdaq. >>> with what? 31 minutes left. let's have a look at individual market movers. shares of best buy jumping the firm is bullish on the membership program of best buy total tech and expects it

dave wilson joins us for the equity side of the story. davidy southern fell 4.4% yesterday when this ruling was made. it has recouped some of those losses, up about 3.5%. then you look at the canadians. canadian national roads more on both sides yesterday denying the voting trust. people presumably happy that they would not spend that $30 billion that they planned to. it is up again today. as far as canadian pacific goes, that stock down about 4.5% on both sides of the border. people seeing the positives in terms of canadian pacific's ability to go through with the transaction for kansas city southern. they already have a voting trust . that was approved back in may. but canadian pacific ceo said his company could buy the shares come put them in the trust by the fourth quarter. there is an incentive for kansas city southern to go ahead. you have seen so much back and forth on this deal. canadian pacific reformed -- referred is latest offer today. they are prepared to move on. kansas city southern was going to have its shareholders vote friday o

william eben wilson. david harold winton. glennj winuk. thomas francis wise. alan l wisniewski.s only pregnant with me. thank you for my life and my name and everything in between, thank you for alex and my mum. i miss you every day and love you so much more. we miss you more and love you, i will meet you one day but today i will live your legacy on. applause john d yamnicky, sr. suresh yanamadala. vicki yancey. shuyin yang. matthew david yarnell. myrna yaskulka. shakila yasmin. 0labisi shadie layeni yee. kevin w yokum. edward p york. kevin patrick york. raymond r york. suzanne martha youmans. barrington leroy young, jr. donald mcarthur young. edmond g young, jr. jacqueline young. lisa l young. elkin yuen. joseph c zaccoli. adel agayby zakhary. arkady zaltsman. edwinj zambrana,jr. robert alan zampieri. mark zangrilli. christopher r zarba, jr. ira zaslow. kenneth albert zelman. abra ham j zelmanowitz. martin morales zempoaltecatl. zhe zeng. marc scott zeplin. jie yaojustin zhao. yuguang zheng. ivelin ziminski. michaeljoseph zinzi. charles alan zion. julie lynne zipper. salvatorej

wilson: if i interrupted your forum, i'm sure everybody got up excited to see polling this morning. davidme two instructions for today. one is 10 minutes. trying my best not to put everybody to sleep. i do want to talk about the extensiveness of the study because it is one of the most thorough, academic, and research programmed i have ever been a part of. you see up here, if you read that, thousands of americans to look at what their attitudes were on the issue of school freedom. the second thing we did, though, that is not listed here is before we started, we talked the subject matter experts and we did some online studies in which we collected literally millions to arrive at the conclusions i will present to you today. the first one i will say is probably intuitive to most of you in the room. the covid 19 pandemic created a tremendous opportunity to foster school choice around the country. second is over the last six years, opinions have shifted in favor of school choice and school freedom when respondents learn what it is. third, i'm in the undoable position of a school choice form and

david costa, goldman sachs the s&p will end 2021 at 4700. ubs strong by the dip. investor mindset and then there's our friend mike wilson, morgan stanley's chief market strategist, and he ins us now who says a 20% correction seems more likely. what happened to 10% you get a bad day and now you up it to 20 >> thanks, scott >> basically it's still 10%, and a lot of commentary i agree with and i was just there and on the show we're want going time these things and we've been in a position that the index would end the year 4,000 and i don't know when that will correct and i have a high conviction that that's where they'll end there's been the call, and i think the most important thing to have gotten right this year and what will be important to get right the rest of the year is what do you own within the market, okay we had a huge rotation in the beginning of the year. at that point we made the call that we'll go through this mid-cycle transition and have a bit of a rolling correction. that played out. we made the quality bet which is essentially the faang stocks and the s&p 500. those what those are they're the highest ind