thing is, think of david brashear trying to put an imax camera on the top of everest, these arewe dawshs, audacious tasks in inherently risky settings, it is not just about managing risk, it is about doing something truly exceptional in an inherently risky setting and doing it in such a way, a, that you get to the top, you summit, and, b, you get back alive, one of the analysis we did was of luck. actually all the work in 25 years i have been associated with the question that probably has tickled me the most is, how do you actually analyze luck? we figured out how to do that, but what was interesting is if you study luck, you learn that luck is symmetric, luck cannot cause a great outcome, can not cause great success, good luck. bad luck can be a cause. if y get four tails in a row or five tails in a row and you know eventually you are going to get heads againt doesn matter if you get killed at tails number 4. and so if overtime, luck tends to even out which is what we found, you have to survive the inevitable space of bad luck in order to be able to have the good luck that enables you o