deirdre bosa. back to mike santoli.at much in the last week or so about them, but i sawsome stocks floating around the floor. >> they're ready. we'll see a lot of fair feed around this place on wednesday. i do think when it comes to arm, no surprise you have the parade of investment banks. by the way, it was dozens who were involved in this deal. because the stock is so close to the actual ipo price. you priced it at 51, trading give or take a couple bucks above that. it's an easy call to say we think it's a core holding and you have to own it at these levels. i still don't know. the response today wasn't necessarily particularly exciting. it's up a little bit. i think the same debate on a known quantity of a company is there in play. what do you pay for a company at this sort of integral spot in chip design know if it's there? broadly ipos will be deal by deal. you have to have something special to be in first wave. >> let's turn to earnings. the banks first. i wonder what you think that's going to mean for sentiment.

and, of course, deirdre bosa has that story for today's edition of tech check.own, i could go to bed in new york and wake up in washington, d.c. in my own car, but it is not going to happen anytime soon in california. >> yeah, the companies will certainly tell you that there is major safety implications, this is the next technological breakthrough. but we're still a ways from there. today's major setback for cruise. the notice from the dmv says the vehicles aren't safe for public operation and that cruise had misrepresented information relating to safety. and in a statement on x form areallare formerly known as twitter, cruise says it shared information with several regulatory agencies and will continue to cooperate. but this is a huge blow to cruise, which is owned by general motors. the san francisco streets are key testing ground for driverless cars, but cruise vehicles have been sflofld a nu involved in a number of incidents that turned the fire department against them and led to more cars from public officials to suspend the program. cruise is also trying t

joining us now is deirdre bosa for our "tech check" today. e ipo market or sentiment, deirdre, but it's certainly not all that positive. >> what can we say? i know it's early, abut what can we say so far? it was short, not very sweet, and now it's likely closed as we head into the year. and no one wants to be doing their road shows during the holiday season. so, this early performance, dom, that you just outlined, it suggests they've been a bust at -- let me put this in terms of ipo debut peaks. insta cart is down 40% from its first day pop. even -- ipo market. that's down nearly 20% from its short lived post debut peak. and this is all before the lock up period has expired, guys, when insiders can sell shares. so, really that raises the question, could it get worse from here. we know thatespecially at a company like instacart, employees have been sitting on options for a very, very long time. it can also tell us startups that may need to tap markets, that perhaps market conditions still aren't all that great. and it may take, at least from wh

thanks deirdre bosa highlighting amazon tonight. we'll get ford and intel and chipotle. >> yeah.pple is sort of breaking down right now which is not good for the overall market but below its late september lows, lower highs lower lows and doesn't report until next week which could be a catalyst >> nvidia too. almost a 3 handle which it hasn't had since the summer. to the judge and the half. >> appreciate it welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner, the good, bad, ugly of the market with the mega caps, economy and interest rates on the investment committee's mind joining me josh brown, shannon saccocia, bill baruch and jim lebenthal. a check of the markets where we have a little bit of a deterioration happening in the nasdaq as guys were just saying across the board, the russell is higher today, very much in focus on deals as well, that 5% level on the 10-year keep watching that josh, i go to you. it is good, bad, ugly. gdp was strong, pce lighter, rates towards 5% weakto

our deirdre bosa lay out the bare case that is could bring tech down more in today's "tech check. bear cases in tech. it's halloween, after all. the morning note gave us this idea plausible but low probability down side scenarios. let's take big tech first. what if the ai hype cycle is all hype and struggles to move beyond chatbots or the flip side, too powerful and gets shut down, overly regulated amazon, google evaporate, nvidia share price crashes. mark zuckerberg pivots back to the metaverse to future proof the company. earmarks billions of dollars more for reality labs. now aside from major ai blow-out, bear cases around the edges to consider, what if amazon, aws growth, hasn't bottomed and gives up market share to google cloud, the third place player or the rise of shein and tiktok take marketmu, soft microsoft can't charge as much as it wants for co-pilot the company is losing $20 a month on average the spooky case is customers find alternatives or never want to pay up. finally, there's apple, the giant with an outsized influence on the broader markets this one may be the s

deirdre bosa. after the break, vote for house speaker kicks off.on insiders are saying chances of a prolonged crvernment shutdown do greatly inease if jim jordan is elected. that's next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. here in hawaii there is always time. there's time to spend with family, time to enjoy with friends. there's always time to listen or lend a helping hand. here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! runni

thank you, deirdre bosa. >>> short seller carson block is with us on the sector he is targeting next.. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. >>> welcome back. our next guest is one of wall street's most prominent short sellers and has a busy q4 on deck with plans for a number of new shorts year's end at robin hood foundation's investor conference here in new york city. joining us this morning muddy water's research founder, carson block, with us. thanks for the sneak peek. what can you -- lay it on us. >> i can't tell you anything with my idea, of course, because that would disadvantage the people going to the conference but i would like t

our deirdre bosa has what to watch in today's "tech check." hi, dee. >>> good morning. mega caps, it's all about the promise versus the economics of artificial intelligence. throughout the first half of the year, the hype was a benefit, carrying the magnificent seven to new highs. there has been a marked shift where the costs and unclear monetization feels like more of a risk. next week we will get microsoft, google, amazon and meta that stand to benefit the most from ai but they stand to lose the most if they can't prove to investors their strategies are working. on top of that contending with the climb in treasury reels, equities as a whole even if the mega caps are seen as defensive plays these days. microsoft, let me go through them, has open ai, azure ai integration and 365 co-pilot but last quarter cfo amy hood threw cold water on any near-term impact saying services will be gradual and monetization in the 20204, the first half of calendar year 2025, ie, more than a year away. it will spend more now so investors will want more details, more azure growth in the mea

deirdre bosa reporting. revenue only once in the past five years. gm is postponing an ev plant expansion amid slowing sales and mid-term options of spotify imply a 11% move on either direction and we'll debate the action and the trade on all three of those names about to report in earnings exchange next apn don't miss the owner of sn-oat 6:00 p.m. eastern, nicholas pinchuk. we're back in a moment. >>> tech check is sponsored by comcast business, powering possibilities. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back. the u.s. deficit soaring to $ 1.7 trillion a 23% jump from 2022 thanks to titlement costs and interest payments on the federal did not. my next guest says the bi

deirdre bosa is digging into that. >> we started the week with this chart, and i wanted to end the weekas well, because it tells a story. it shows megacaps on a growth ratio, they haven't been this cheap in nearly six years and have only seen those kind of discounts to the broader market in the last decade. i wanted to show you the chart form of what they are saying. so, there's already signs, clearly, that investors are taking heald and moving back into tech. the megacaps have been resilient this week and today amid broader sell-off and volatility, suggesting the street doesn't think fundamentals have changed despite rising bond yields in the macro. one exception, however, might be amazon. it is the only company in the magnificent seven grouping lower on the week, and by nearly 2%. it is also faring the worst on a monthly basis, down nearly 8%, all while it is supposed to be heading into its strongest quarter of the year, the holiday stretch. there's black friday, cyber monday, christmas, hanukkah, even amazon's prime day in october, about a week from now, which should boost sales. ama

deirdre bosa. jay powell set to speak at the top of the hour speaking at the new york economic club. we'll take question and answer. there's a lot of anticipation on this one because we haven't heard from him since we've gotten the string of strong data. it started with jobs, firmer cpi, retail sales, the atlanta fed third quarter gdp is tracking 5.4%. is he going to look at that as a risk they might have to do more tightening to get inflation down to target or as his other scl colleagues have looked at it, let's wait and see. >> yeah. echos at least jefferson and his vice chair. it has been hard not notice oil has gone green, vix kissing 20. the market going into powell even handed keep an eye on the other metrics as well. frank holland at the half. >> thank you very much. welcome to the "halftime report." i am in for the judge. we begin with breaking news, fed chair jerome powell about to speak at the economic club of new york and let's get to steve liesman. steve, over to you. >> thanks. in a sp

chart of amazon shares up nicely deirdre bosa has that story covered for us deirdre. >> yeah, david, on the cause this quarter because it's how amazon pays for everything else and where they're putting a lot of generative ai efforts it was key ceo andy jassy did provide hopes that there was more deals being signed in the quarter, but i do go back to what cfo told me when i asked him if he could say that growth had bottomed out. he said that he couldn't next to microsoft's number as well they didn't look great. it does help, however, that there are other business units helping to prop up some of that profitability with higher margin businesses one of them is advertising that grew 25%. another is third-party services that grew 18%. that helped that overall operating income of more than $11 billion, a record, and that is going top help amazon compete with microsoft and google going forward in ai. that's key because as we know, this race is extremely costly microsoft and google, by the way, they have more lucrative core businesses to underwrite their efforts. amazon's core business, of c

let's bring in deirdre bosa for today's tech check. hi, dee?ou, i have a special guest with me today. ben harberg, he's usually in beijing but he's with us today in san francisco. welcome. talk about the temu infect, the chinese realtor. there's rising anxiety it's going to displace everyone from amazon to the dollar stores to papal. >> and costco as well. this is an application that uses gamification. a user generated content, highly engaging and it's taking over the app store, it's a threat to everyone, including amazon as it makes a fun and engaging experience at a low ice point. >> but amazon is still dominant here. but it's only been a year that te mu has been here. we saw the super bowl commercials it's at the top of the downloads. how concerned should people be? >> they should be very afraid. it's on par with what xi did fashion. this is a company that goes beyond fashion and targets small goods, electronics and trinkets and therefore that whole range of potential customers and retailers are at risk. >> and in such a short amount of time

let's get to deirdre bosa for more hi, dee. >> tyler, we may have to think more about that e-commerceore in the months ahead. last night andy jassy, the ceo, did put to rest some of the biggest concerns about its cloud business growth at 12% it was flat year over year so, analysts in the street are hopeful that's going to be on the upswing once again however, i would point to its revenue guidance that came in about $3 million light in the midrange of that guidance. that may raise some questions about the quarter ahead. this is supposed to be amazon's blockbuster quarter with lots of holiday shopping events. including its own prime day, which we just had. that is the opportunity to really tell the street whether it continues to sort of maintain the market share it has or if there's more competitive forces. that's going to be something to look at. i will say, though, that profitability has been great at the company. we haven't seen an amazon that has seen this kind of operating income in a long time. aws margins were up some 600 basis points in the quarter, above 30%. you've also got so

let's goat deirdre bosa for the numbers. >> kelly, it actually delays a public offering.f the most richly valued startups on earth behind tiktok parent bite dance and elon musk's spacex. openai off ears twist on the start-up structure which is worth noting it is a capped profit limited partnership governed by a nonprofit board. that means that profits in excess of 100 times return will be passed on to an overarching nonprofit company which will disperse profits after that. six individuals the board has control of olypenai's profitability. three are from the start-up's founding team and three are tech entrepreneurs working elsewhere in ai. researchers. anthropic the other generative ai darling raising money at a higher valuation has similar quirks in its structure. a five person committee can hire and fire the company's board. in the way that other tech founders like snap and facebook held on to their control past ipos, the biggest ai companies are ensure they can hold on to control much earlier on in the start-up's life cycles. their justification is different. as it mora

that's what deirdre bosa is watching in today's tech check. >> 25 days since arm went public.t period before the banks that underwrote the ipo publish research. in arm's case there were many of them. a flurry of notes this morning. i counted 10 altogether. every one of them a buy, that leaves just one sell rating from bernstein, not involved in the ipo and gives arm a medium price, a mean price, target of $63.43. $10 above where it trades today. the market has cooled on arm. the stock surged 25% on its debut, ipo day, but has paired back most of those gains. since i covered softbank i'm always interested in what this means for massa sun. this chart shows the equity of softbank holdings. habs been the crown jewel under pinning masa son's push into the vision fund and letting him shore up finances amid uncertain times. alibaba went from being 23% of softbank to a minuscule 0.1% proportion. it is the orange. you can barely see it on the second line there. the biggest holding the blue parts of the chart, the vision firms one and two. the new crown jewel is arm. which softbank owns

our deirdre bosa is watching that. >>> it's getting harder to keep track of the prime days and copycattions from target, walmart, others. the chinese apps do not bother. every day is deal day for shein shoppers and temu. a highly effective strategy. it shows temu's growing popularity through site visits. amazon is leagues ahead in absolute numbers, but temu has closed the gap in terms of growth. today i wanted to dive into that strategy and how it differs from the traditional american e-commerce players and how wall street is obsessed from amazon to dollar stores to paypal. if you go to the temu site, like this right here, and open the app, you're faced with a wheel. spin it for different levels of discount. the first spin, spin again. we spun again. the second time, it's going to show $200 to spend on the app, very instant, and to some very gratifying n. this way the chinese e-commerce is gamefied. temu is luring in shoppers with a literal wheel of fortune. compared to temu, the amazon site today, as it kicks off another shopping holiday, is toned down, muted. it's the same as it was

that's the focus of today's "techcheck" with deirdre bosa.. >> on a price-to-earnings basis, mega tech is cheap again. the rest of the magnificent 7 have been hit by rising yields along with the rest of the market, but their profit ratios have fallen harder. if you exclude those seven mega caps, the remaining s&p's 493 companies has seen its price-to-earnings ratio fall from 18 to 16. now, if you look at the biggest names combined, they've seen that metric fall far more steeply, from 34 to 27 times. goldman sachs uses this chart to put all of that in historical perspective. the mega cap's pe ratio has fallen below that orange line on the screen. the median since 2013. also the lowest versus the broader market since early 2020. a discount goldman says has only been reached five times over the last decade. main reason for that is fundamentals. higher yields make future earnings worth less. that should have more impact on high growth on profitable tech. the mega caps are widely profitable companies, even if recession fears are overshadowing a.i.

equivalent-type rating and that's despite shares up more than 20% since the post-ipo highs and deirdre bosaoday's tech check. $69 for the intraday high right after it and nowhere near that right now, why the buy? >> you mentioned the pop. that was up 25% and as you also said, pared gains since then. i read ten analyst reports this morning and ten initiations and all of them were buy, some sort of a buy or overweight and these came from the banks that were involveded in underwriting the ipo. so they waited 25 days to publish their research and it's interesting when you look at where the ratings stood before. there was only one buy and now there's 14 and one sell and it comes from bernstein which did not work on the ipo. one of the things i like to look at, dom, what does this say for softbank? they have the most to gain, if the price goes up these buy ratings are flooding in and i want to show you a chart. this looks at where arm sits in the whole softbank world. this is a japanese conglomerate with holdings in many different things and these are not very liquid because their investments in

deirdre bosa breaks down those numbers. hi, dee. >> good morning, mike.ewhat mixed signals on aws but seems to be good enough for the market today. those shares are surging so, i want to zero in on the core e-commerce business and something that might being overlooked that is its revenue outlook. at its midpoint it was $3 billion short of street expectations that is heading into what is supposed to be the blockbuster holiday quarter for amazon on the call, management talked about a cautious consumer. trading down where they can. that could -- but it could also be a sign of sustained top line pressure and a change in competitive landscape. bernstein this morning writes, aws and temu, you need the answer to all three for the stock to work. we got one answer, one on the way and one is still a question. amazon answered on operating income aws margins up, growth in advertising and third-party seller services. this is about as profitable an amazon as we have ever seen. cloud, mixed signals there, but more optimism. that is on the way it has to back that up temu

deirdre bosa. >>> up next, will rate hikes continue intoyear?d income says that may be the case. he'll join us next to lay out his thesis. don't go anywhere as we keep a close eye on the ten-year yield coming off the hhsig, 4.7%. still pretty elevated. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire this is american infrastructure. megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. all running on countless invisible networks, making it

deirdre bosa has alphabet. steve kovach on microsoft. julia boorstin on snap.visa. d, alphabet or it is only less than 2% from its highs, it is up 6% this month. does that mean expectations are high? >> it does mean expectations are high. this is a stock that is favored by the long onlies. the long hug of megacaps. the first was characterized by more of the promise of artificial intelligence, what it was going to do there. the second half has been back to basics, the fundamentals. alphabet's core business is still very much so in advertising story. nearly 80% of revenue comes from search and other ads. so that's what analysts are going to be looking at. the street will be look at. we're expecting 10% top line growth, which is really the epitome of growth, growth at a reasonable price. when you look at alphabet, it feels like one of the safest stories in megacap out there. the stocks have grown so large, could have an outsized impact if it does miss. as you said, expectations are high. and, remember, also, that alphabet does not guide. that's important to keep i

latest in a series of recent ipos that have struggled, the focus of today's "tech check" with deirdre bosa. >>> the ipo window of 2023 was short, wasn't very sweet and now it's likely closed as we head into the year end. they've been a bust. birkenstock ended by more than 10% from that ipo price. instacart is down, arm more than 20, even klaviyo. a better indicator for the ipo market is down nearly 20% from its short-lived post debut peak. when insiders can sell shares, so what is behind the ipo stumble? the fundamentals are iffy but not terrible. even as revenue growth is slowing at instacart, arm and birkenstock. whether bankers got greedy writing leaving money on the table is good manners. raising as much as possible is a poor long term strategy to win over investors. that leaves market conditions that was an open question before the companies kicked off their listings. the market shot for 18 months as the federal reserve raised interest rates and markets have rebounded this year, they've been carried by the magnificent seven group of mega cap tech stocks which are in a far different le

. >> the deirdre bosa was here, she'd be talking about pdd, they have this temu app that's destroyingn load on this whole thing. when you think about, you know, e-commerce app that's working here in america that's chinese-owned with $100 billion plus market cap, you have to say this is on our sights here, because our e-commerce companies can't be over there. this is, like, easy pickings right now. >> i just can't believe how cheap they sell things and i can't believe -- >> maybe it's just a data collection thing. >> they are tying in american -- >> it is obviously data collection. >> if they are coming after tiktok, whatever the thing is, they're coming off this thing. >> well, those sites, specifically, are going after walmart, they're going after amazon, they're going after every single e-commerce platform out there. they could sell $4.99bathing suits. >> pardon me? >> and consumers are strapped for cash these days. they're going to buy the $4.99 bathing suit and not the $9.99 one -- guy, you are looking at me like i'm an it alien. >> there are certain things you don't skimp on. >>

how have higher rates impacted the tech sector in particular in deirdre bosa is digging into that before week of earnings on "techcheck." >> higher yields are hitting the tech complex in different ways. mega cap at one end of the spectrum. they look safer, more defensive in this environment. they're more mature businesses but growth at a reasonable price. on the other end of the spectrum are startups. they're still building. focusing on growth and pushing profitability out to later when their business scales. the problem with that, though, is that rising yields makes that business model incredibly unattractive. valuations come down because the current value of those future cash flows is less when rates are higher. at the same time, their borrowing costs are increasing. a double whammy leading to more startups just shutting down. carta helps startups and vcs and found nearly 550 tartups have closed shop this is year, more than 467 for all of last year. and concludes this has already been the most difficult year for early stage companies in at least a decade. rising rates, the ten-year yie

let's get to deirdre bosa out west for more. >> so you said it, the holiday season.h coming up is supposed to be the strongest financial period for amazon. the ecommerce platform. it is well positioned when we'll see black friday, cyber monday, christmas, hanukkah and even its own prime day is in just a few week. so that should all be good for amazon. but when you look at its position within the magnificent seven, it has been a laggard, down about 2% this week and almost 8% over the last month and that is more than some of the others just as it is heading into this period. it is acting maybe more like a retail stock. and part of the reason might be the rise of chinese ecommerce. i know we've talked about it before, but really the popularity of temu has been astonishing. the app in the u.s. only launched about a year ago but it quickly vaulted to the top of the app stores. it surpassed even tiktok in times of the downloads. and so i was looking at some of the notes and a lot of wall street is starting to write more about temu and its place in retail. morgan stanley to

deirdre bosa has all the details on amazon's quarter. >> yeah, so, mel, the street just wanted more from aws, amazon's cloud unit. the analyst call kicks off in 30 minutes, but i did have the chance to talk to the cfo just a few minutes ago, and i asked him if he could say whether aws growth has bottomed. he said he wouldn't characterize it that way. that they're in a delicate situation and while cost optimization work is starting to slow, he said there are still companies that are joining that effort and that's really when the stock turned and gave up the gains it's really disappointing for the street, which wanted to hear that that stratrajectory had tu. we had mixed messages from microsoft and google google said something similar that customers are still optimizing, and that's just another way of saying they're cutting costs, trying to save in the cloud. microsoft cloud, on the other hand, was stronger on the strength of its a.i. offerings amazon likewise has been pouring all of its efforts and billions of dollars into generative a.i. through its cloud unit, so, this could perhaps und

deirdre bosa on alphabet. karen, what do you think? >> the search part was good. there's still growth there, so, that was good. the cloud part, which is really been kind of the outside fore us can versus its size, that was disappointing. the margin there was disappointing. particularly in light of we just said microsoft showing pretty good cloud growth, so -- that's a little bit disappointing. some of the kind of noisy things that made the beat were things that i kind of don't care about, so -- you know, google bet, stuff like that. so, it was okay. it's a different multiple, obviously, than microsoft, so, you know, i kind of let it shake out a little. it's a big position for me, so mildly disappointed, but i'm not going to sell, there's nothing terribly wrong here. >> i can agree. if anything, i would rather be buying on weakness. i understand we wanted to see better results from the cloud, but the fact of the matter is, these companies came out last quarter and said that enterprise customers were looking at ways to kind of make their spend a bit more efficient.

i want to send it over to the goldman sachs builders and innovators summit where deirdre bosa has a special"tech check." good morning, dee. >>> good morning, carl. i'm here with kim posnett, goldman sachs global head of tmt. we're an hour and a half north of san francisco. this is goldman's annual builders and innovators summit. lots of entrepreneurs here. i think you said about 100. what's the sentiment on the ground? it's been a more challenging year compared to years past between higher interest rates, a tougher funding environment. what are you hearing from the entrepreneurs here? >> deirdre, thank you for having me. we're here at our builders and innovators summit in california, our 12th year hosting it. it's an annual event to honor and celebrate the most successful entrepreneurs in the world, and this year we have an unbelievable lineup of people. we have seasoned entrepreneurs, business leaders, thought leaders, and we come together for this two-day summit where we talk about how to build businesses that impact the world. the major themes this year, as you would expect, are ai, geo