the key question is -- should greece deleverage at all? it may be just too dangerous.hat is exactly the position we are in. ecb recognizes that it is no longer possible. no politicians seem to fully the idea. in which case you need to leave greece alone and just keep going. try to author some of the structural aspects, but it is to complicated to detonate any country on a regular basis. after all, what will happen to cyprus eventually? slovenia? it becomes a never-ending story. yvonne: it really does. victor, thank you so much for talking to us again about greece. coming up, sign a prenuptial. and a gathering in beijing as indonesia becomes one of the top new lenders and investors. ♪ yvonne: the founding members of the asia infrastructure bank are in beijing sign an agreement today. 50 nations committing to the project despite warnings about government transparency. financial involvement was announced but the levine's said that they would not join just yet. good to see you. this is a big day for china area >> indeed. beijing in the drivers seat they won't have what the

of time where the economy is improving, there is a lot of sectors that have continued to deleverage andou are at a point where inflation data is starting to move. there is a dispersion between different economies. you are starting to see volatility pickup around the world but it is coming off low levels. it still remains at low levels. quarters five-year treasury. these are not levels that are necessarily shocking the economy are going to disrupt significantly. at this point we are not talking about race -- rates that would slow the economy. that is different than the comments with regard to steve schwarzman's comments. there will be another economic shock from a variety of different ways. what that means from a credit standpoint and liquidity, we have to seeing. how can there is a shock how it is going to be a buffer for liquidity can come back to allow the economy to continue to function. it will happen. is the high-yield market an indicator of how good the economy is performing. guest: historically it has been. that is not mean it is going to be the leading indicator in the future. n

for example, home prices and home sales starting to gradually improve and that means the debt deleveraging cycle is starting to subside and is a tremendous backup which could push the united states when it comes to growth. that could get you to the three handle. joe: one of the reasons people are selling the euro as they think the u.s. is getting ready to raise rates, but the eurozone is a long way and there will not be an ecb version of the taper. i take it was your prediction, you don't think there's any risk of an early end to easement? chad: the ecb has to deflate their currency. you are seeing it within the economic numbers. that is the way they can gin up their inflation expectations and try to break the japan-like cycle. the credit dynamics there are when it comes to the real true economy, they are somewhat better but not great. in the united states, we are starting to see spending and mortgage debt and business investment pick up again. you could definitely see a second-half recovery in the united states. nonetheless, better than the 2.3% we see. joe: there was a fascinating note t

they're deleveraged they're confident. they have higher real earnings that due to lower gas prices and so i continue to think that will be a good part of our economy that takes a little longer to get going. but we did start to see that in may. >> you mention consumers and everybody who believes the drop in gasoline prices we've experienced should be delivering a fairly sizable boost to consumption. thus far it seems to have gotten us to saving not spending. what do you think of that? >> i think it's been really puzzling. if you look at the jump-up in the savings rate it's about the 90th percentile than we had seen, quite an en creasingly large increased. we got revised data for march and april. consumer spending in those months, may was a lot stronger. i think the savings numbers will come down a little bit. historically when they spike up like that they tend to come down. as they come down, that would lead to elevated consumer spending. soy think this may be sort of the normal bumps and wiggles in the economy that are har

of time right now where the economy is improving, there is deleveraging, and inflation data is startingmove, economic data is starting to move to dispersion between different economies and you are starting to see volatility pickup in the rate and fixed income market around the world, but it is coming off low levels and remains at low levels, you are talking about a 2.5% 10 year right now with the treasury. these are not levels that are shocking the economy or are going to disrupt significantly. it might you volatility in the equity market, but at this point we are not talking about rate that would slow the economy in a significant form, which i think is different from the comments that you were reported with regards to steve schwarzman. there will be another economic shock and that could come from a variety of different places. what that means from a credit and point and duty is that i think we have to see and as regulation evolves how and when how thata shock liquidity is going to come back to allow the economy to continue to function in an economic downturn, because it will happen. al

equity continued to replace it as deleveraging gathered pace worldwide. about this report. joining us now is the senior director at dtz. thank you for joining us to discuss that report. we already have an idea that china is overheating a lot of money. it's looking for higher yielding prospects essentially. how cautious should one be looking at that report and the bubbles that should be performing. >> if you're talking about china specifically the government has taken action in the past 12 months. if you're talking about the wider world we feel we're not in a bubble at the moment given the other choices for investments, be it bonds or chairs the real estate markets across the world offer a good choice and good safe rate of return for investors and with the deleveraging that's happening it's largely equity invested into the real estate markets. >> so are you thinking these levels are healthy ones even though we're getting closer to the ones we saw in 07? '06 even? >> yes we're having this conversation which is the right thing to do and we should demonstrate

part of what we've seen since then is a really long painful process of deleveraging by consumers and don't think we're all the way there yet. the housing sector, as you said, i don't think is fully healed. the flip side of the housing sector not being fully healed is the housing sector still has a lot of potential in it. i think we're actually not building enough houses right now. credit is too tight for many households in the housing market. as we rectify those issues, that will be one of the sources of added growth we can expect in our economy over the next few years. >> how do you feel about the premise that there's a lot of excesses or overstretched valuations in the market out there which pose as threat to the sustainability of the expansion? >> i think financial market values are something that the system is much better at being attentive to, much better at looking at systemic risks. we as regulators aren't looking at their corners. they're looking at the system as a whole. that's an issue of that. >> other questions? >> francis shemmel has a question. what is your opinion on l

. >> how do you get people to deleverage?> some idea how to do that, but also improve the structure outside from the fixed rate. not only the interest-only payment, but the other payments, as well. given our efforts in korea and other countries, it should be dealt with other ways rather than interest-rate only. l do they continue to oosen? >> we expect one more cut, most like the tomorrow. in that case, we think it might took to do a wartime down 125. >> 50 basis points? country, thef the level is important. 1.5%, the rate will go down , but it will have a huge impact on the psychology. given that you cannot give them anymore. >> let's look at the whole way.re in a broad is it going off the rails? >> is not that pessimistic -- >> there are some changes happening, because of the chinese slowdown. obviously, choosing manufacturing countries like taiwan, we need to think about the threat there. growth is 3.4%, trade versus growth and including other groups. ashid: good to have you on the program. we have to take a break. next, a

saw a boost in the consumer's wallet from lower gas prices, but they ended up saving that were deleveraging little bit. is it going to change that picture? jack: first of all, on that question of oil and lower gas prices, and takes time for that to work its way through the consumer psyche. people in their budgets really look at things on the longer-term. i think it is a matter of taking time for them to understand if gasoline prices are going to stay low. then they will decide if they want to spend more. you look atgh, when today's numbers, you saw gains in employment which is a good signal because retailers have to staff up per standing -- first spending. an appliance, electronics, building materials, furniture. all this are related in people's homes and home improvement. gainso sought employment in the clothing specter. -- sector. we are also on the verge and ofng in the smack dab vacation time. people are getting their homes in position from a home sale standpoint or home improvement. erik: to what degree does the improvement in hourly earnings reflect what we have seen from some retaile

whether that is debt relief bringing in taxes so they are not off shelter deleveraging the banking system, making more transparent, cutting up the banks, making them responsible. they have gone all of this help to the real economies. all of that has to be part of it, otherwise, he continues and continues to hurt the economies least able and least getting from the top. amy: nomi prins is a former bank director, author of "all , the presidents' bankers: the hidden alliances that drive american power." we will go back to bavaria to speak with our guests, gawain kripke of oximeter, about the issue of coal and eric lecompte with us and washington d.c. stay with us. ♪ [music break] amy: the weavers, "if i had a hammer." singer ronnie gilbert died on saturday in mill valley, california. the great folksinger was 88. this is democracy now! democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman with juan gonzalez. we are still with eric lecompte jubilee usa network, most recently in dresden, germany for the g-7 finance ministers gathering. and we are joined by gawain kripke, the director of po

at our firm that consumption is set to grow just with the labor market overall and the end of deleveraging, but some of the stories, gap closing 900 stores makes you wonder. what do you think? >> gap is closing around 175 stores. think it's where consumers are spending that's the shift. look what we've seen with travel and lodging and look what we've seen with restaurants and in certain areas of discretionary, whether it's active or cosmetics, those are the areas that are growing. along with off-price, i think brands matter, we're going to see nike's earnings come out next week and i think we'll continue to see robust growth out of the whole active category. it's much more defined, it's not everything as it's been in the past. but you've seen value certainly take hold. and on the high end side, look what neiman marcus saw also, you saw a slow-down in the rate of comp store sales. >> the slowdown in handbags for kors. is that a industry-wide issue? and means that you got to beware of kate spade? you've got to beware of coach and even some potential higher-end names? >> i think we've seen th

i think a lot of deleveraging in the u.s.e other hand as kevin said earlier, the standard deviations much bigger. >> all over the place. we've give that exception. barbara, what is your number? >> credit suisse call for 220,000. pretty much in line with consensus which is 225,000. >> andrew 250,000. there it is right there. >> that would bring a smile. >> that would bring a smile right there. >> steve liesman is here. steve, you put work into this. >> 184,000. again, i have garcia's hand here. what is that? that is me on the beach. look at those abs right there. thatjure that's jerry garcia's hand right there. >> well done. >> i'll give my number right here. i'm going high with 280,000. i don't know why. i'll go the high end. >> here's mine. i always have to come up. that's mine. and if it's 309, i'm going to use 309. if it's under 100,000, i'll use 86. >> you'd be the highest, right? >> would you have known what that was? >> no. not until you played it. >> i didn't want to play it. i wanted to wait until someone actually rea

the leverage is not necessarily the issue, although they are going to deleverage.omplexity the problems that can because in a way that is too shady. tom: are there too many big banks? nomi: absolutely. five of the largest banks in the world are in the united states. in the wake of the financial crisis, our biggest banks are bigger. the rest of the european banks are smaller. tom: nomi prins, thank you so much. all the president's bankers. nomi prins, with her book. stay with us this morning. ♪ announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: call it the sunday purge. anshu jain is out at deutsche bank. can european banks compete with j.p. morgan and goldman sachs? g-7 leaders meet in the area a demanding -- in bavaria, demanding that greece chart a way forward. jean-claude juncker looks for minimal rules. apple tries again with music streaming. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance " live from our world headquarters in new york. it is monday, june 8. i'm tom keene. with me, brendan greeley. brendan i was shocked yesterday when that headline came

set low for results and citigroup has been doing well in terms of growing earnings and slowing deleveragingn it might be able to beat estimates and boost shares. stephanie: thanks, julie hyman. bruno is still here with us. e.t.f.'s are your game. last week you launched an alternative energy e.t.f. bruno: it is an alternative energy play similar to others. they focus on alternative energy companies solar panels, wind farms and they have long-term contracts and pass the income to investors. it is interesting because it is more of an infrastructure play not highly correlated with equity markets. erik: your e.t.f.'s are all passive? bruno: yes. erik: there is a question of whether it has a place there. what is your view? bruno: pimco has been successful offering actively managed e.t.f.'s. they make sense for fixed income. some active managers are great. it is difficult to do consistently. very few people can do it. active management generally makes plays, it is just difficult to do. stephanie: why would you not want to? bruno: it is difficult. you are seeing smart data in the space. it is a for

the economy was growing 2.25% over the last five years with household deleveraging and governments tighten with no recovery in the housing market. a lot of these headwinds are fading. to some respects, the forecast of the consensus, the fed, 2.5% may be too conservative. vonnie: who says housing will get back to the old normal? what would be the new normal for housing in terms of millenials finally buying? neil: i think 1.3 million on housing starts. i think that is probably the new normal. but we are still well below that. there is plenty of upside. brendan: um, what is the indicator that we should be paying the most attention to? the thing i cannot figure out is whether we should pay attention to new housing starts or existing house stock. whether those are being resold. neil: there are so many ways to slice the apple. you can look at builder sentiment, prices, home sales, construction. with home sales, for example, what we will likely see going forward is a pickup in new home sales relative to existing home sales. a lot of the increase in existing sales was investor led, distressed sale

necessary deleveraging after years of credit growth.difficult to stabilize at this point. >> won on the prospect of better days ahead but the finance minister has introduced measures to plug a hole in brazil's physical accounts. when do we see that actually working? >> he has done more probably than most people expected but it's probably not going to be enough. the economy is so weak that your physical revenues are falling rapidly. they probably have to do more but they have been cutting in social expenditure. too much money on social things that are not really that important. so brazil probably needs to do more but it's very difficult for them to do more. >> you mentioned improvement we've seen. there's been a lot of reports that they're at odds. how confident are you that the government can push forward reform if there's a split within their own ranks? >> the problem for the government is to move forward in the same moment when unemployment is rising. that makes it difficult to go together on tightening more. i think they probably wan

>> they have moved to growth perform and deleverage.look at the economy right now probably they're worrying that growth has shrunk too low and they might take some action to stimulate the economy. we don't expect a big stimulus package but they might make fizz fiscal moves and subsidies. one area is the property market where in response to interest rate cuts property transactions are improving. >> that trade data i was speaking to a couple of investors. to them it looks concerning. imports to china falling 17.6%. exports also falling. factory prices under pressure from a slowing economy. do policy makers need to reassess the way business is getting done? because clearly what's being done now is not working. >> a lot of that data is related to the traditional chinese growth of exports. that sector is under a lot of pressure and there's not a lot they can do about it. by that i mean it's under pressure because wages are going up and costs are going up and it's strong against other currencies so the exportd machine is not competitive anymo

part of what we've seen since then is a really long painful process of deleveraging by consumers andbusinesses. i don't think we are all the way there yet. the housing sector as you said i don't think is fully healed. the flipside of housing sector not being fully healed this housing sector still has a lot of potential in it. i think we're not building enough houses right now. credit is too tight for many households in the housing market. and as we rectify those issues that will be one of the sources of added growth we can expect over the next few years. >> how do you feel about the premise of there's a lot of excess of the overstretched valuations in the financial markets out there which pose a latent threat to the sustainability of the expansion? >> i think that financial market values are something that assistant is much better at being attended to we are much better looking systemic risk. we are not looking at their corners the they are look at the system as a whole and so that's an issue that fsoc antibodies are certainly monitoring. >> other questions? >> frances has a question

. >> and just remember deleveraging is still continuing with the household since the great procession people are selling assets and sitting on cash. my bet questions over the clinton foundation cash dealing. could it all be part of a master plan? we will talk about that next. stay with us. here at td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. college jeb bush raising tons of money in preparation for his presidential announcement set to take place monday. hillary clinton at slide in the polls could lead her vulnerable but my next guest she is positioned for a victory. good to see you. would you say about hillary and jeb bush? >> hillary has gone back to pre secretary of state numbers

yields remained so low primarily because of the type of recession we just went through and it was a deleveraging type recovery and we're also at a point where we're still -- i do agree with the secular stagnation view where it's slower than it was in past decades and we're an aging society. there's going to be less demand for credit so interest rates are likely to remain relatively well contained. probably higher than the low levels we see today but along with that inflation has also been very well contained and has been pretty well contained since the early 1980s and that's likely to con in our view. more recently when bond yields have risen some of that might be capital flows simply because when the euro dollar was at 104 in mid march, since then the euro value has risen and with that allowed the economic data in europe has also improved so we're seeing more capital flow into europe from the united states. >> so both of you sound like you're more worried that growth stays weak than we get behind the curve on interest rates. >> do you think even actually we start doing better globally? >> i'm c