we welcome now denise chisholm, fidelity sector head. what are you looking at? e is a really unique variable historically. as much as we want to think it is different this time, i think history can help us in informing our investment views. when you study global trade back to 1948, you see some interesting data in the sense that if you have perfect foresight and knew that global trade was going to contract, of all those quartiles it has the highest average return of equities and highest odds of equities advancing. it tells you one of three things happens. the market discounts them advance -- deep counts -- .iscounts them in advance we get stimulus to offset it, which we are seeing from the fed and increasingly in china over the last year, or there is more tailwinds that you're not categorizing versus the headwinds. when you put those three things together and think about global trade in the fed and the probabilities i see, in terms of that defensive rotation we saw during the fourth quarter and we seen in recent weeks, what it takes the defensive sectors like con

for more on how investors are reacting, let's bring in denise chisholm. calling you and telling you i've got to get out of semiconductors and anything related to china? guest: i think there's obvious fears in the market. spike the fact that there's always idiosyncratic risk -- despite the fact that there's always idiosyncratic risk, as much as we haven't seen this magnitude of tariff increase, we have seen a lot of history of tariffs overall, and we do have a global trade data to study. as much as it might be a little bit different, that can inform our views of the market level. what you see is the opposite of what you would expect if you could predict that global trade was going to contract. it actually has the highest of any market return quartile you can study. that means that your take away as an investor tells you one of three things. either the market has the ability and does discounted in advance, that there could be potential stimulus that actually offsets it, or that there are more tailwinds then use expect that you need to add up. you always hav