we got statements from dennis lockhart hedging his bets on capering, i need more data, i don't know. n what you heard from lockhart? >> the s&p 500 is against resistance, a three or four point pop. of course he doesn't know what to do if he knew what to do it would be easy. this is going to be difficult and we have to wait until september and we will see some movement. will create opportunity for guys like us to trade. cheryl: you are watching the airline sector and i want to get some reaction to what you are seeing in airline stocks. >> this is an opportunity. these two names like i said before we don't really know them but like delta in our wheel house trading down $19. with the name like that which i follow you might get a dollar out of this if you pick them up today. cheryl: you are not that bothered about the buying opportunity. >> it is a buying opportunity for airline names. file the transports, they're interesting, the airlines of the scariest part because the price of oil really does hamper them. this is a chance to pick up on the truth. cheryl: interesting. it is the sector

what's interesting is dennis lockhart, with the federal reserve, of course, in the middle of the day noted that the economy was uneven and the data does not show a clear economic picture. that put down on whether the tapering would occur. the bond market has no part of that. if you'll notice, we've seen an elevation in bond yields all throughout the day. the bond market believes tapers is coming and i would put more in stock with what the bond market thinks. if you don't think it's the case, look at home building stocks. they're concerned about tapering because cutting off purchases of mortgage-backed securities would raise mortgage rates. so we've seen homebuilders fall throughout the day. these are off of the lows. and real estate investment trusts also very much dependent on interest rates, also among the weakest groups today. got a lot going on down here today. guys, back to you. >> that's for sure. let's talk about this -- what has turned out to be a newsy. joining us is david from mainstay, tim from tamron, david from convergeent, and our own rick santelli. anybody own shares o

atlanta fed chief dennis lockhart says it has improved but the labor market is still not where the fed be. lockhart also saying that the initial tapering should be a cautious first step. joining us is lindsey piegza, chief economist at stern ag. great to he sue. normally we have you here in studio. you're in chicago today. mr. lockhart was saying that a lot of the data we're getting, it just doesn't provide a lot of clarity. today we had retail sales which were, eh, at least on the up side, but what is the economic data telling us? >> that's right. starting with retail sales the headline report came in a little less than expected but the prior month was revised up so what this says on net the consumer is little changed from where they were at the end of the second quarter but this is not to say they're on much firmer footing because remember the consumer was able to spend through the first quarter, despite those onerous tax increases but we lost a considerable amount of momentum going into the second quarter with real consumption up just a few tenths. what lockhart and most fed officia

nice segue. >> dennis lockhart, president of the atlanta fed out with comments ahead of very important very important economic reports like the august jobs report. it will come sent 6th as they consider taper and he said, maybe as soon as september. now we're seeing more and more of these guys getting behind as soon as september. take a listen. >> a decision to prooeed, whether it is in september, october, or december, those are the dates of the upcoming meetings, ought to be thought of as a cautious first step. i for one will need to get comfortable that the employment progress we've enjoyed is not stalling, and that disinflation pressures, are not building. >> bud lockhart said the fed is not ready to lay out a detailed plan how it will exit from all the stimulus for the last five years on how quickly or how much of its bonds it will start to sell, but, that is not mutually exclusive from starting to taper, maybe, right now they're doing 85 billion a month. so they take it down to 80 billion a month? that is still buying a lost bond and very stimulative. david: just to unravel some o

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lou: dennis lockhart, an ornized effort on the part of the fed to send out these presidents, fomc membersthem, to talk about tapering. law car started making a little sense, but he has beenhe complete allied air and saying there will not be tapering next month which makes all the sense of the world, frankly, to meet. that tells you what an allied air i am. bernanke has been talking about disinflation commend everyone keeps indicate a doreen it. we have nothing here to suggest that we are seeing any kind of lifting of price level. >> a good story. at the end of this process ducks fed will do what is said it will five years ago. and what they will do is support the market. higher stock. no one isistening. lou: they're listening to bill gross' over at pembroke telling them to buy bonds. >>nd warren buffett had said that bonds, somethi that viewers should listen to, one of the most dangerous things you can invest in, sometimes buyg prices o down that you lose money. you cannot get a big payoff. lou: your look at the remainder of the year. >> still positive. all the things you just talked abou

>>> while fed fears continue to weigh heavily on investors' minds, the atlanta fed president dennis lockhartold reuters on saturday that he would be comfortable with a cautious staling back of its bond-buying program which is expected to be announced at its next meeting. speaking to cnbc on friday, lockhart said he could favor a september taper, provided that there were no really worrisome signs in the economy. >> the way i'm thinking of it at that moment is i'm actually looking at the data and asking if they deny or in some way undermine the basic outlook that i have in place. and on that basis, then i could get comfortable with a move in september of some kind. >> now, lockhart also agreed that the august jobs report will be the key number to watch between now and next month's meeting. it will be, right? bigger numbers to look out for. >>> now, south korea's corporate successes are well documented, being among the global leaders in ship building, in autos and technology, even pop culture. on the economic front, though, the country's emergence from poverty have also been noteworthy. today w

dennis lockhart made similar comments. economist told us that tapering and ending qe will happen. >> it's not really having a huge effect on the economy. we did not keep a big spurt of growth from adopting this policy. it has not heard things. it has been a positive. i think the real problem is that the federal reserve cannot just sit there and do nothing in the face of such weakness. >> if you are keeping score, evans's of voting member of the fomc this year. end he end up what part are not voting members. they are in the room and express their opinion, sometimes forcefully. liz: i would think it would be a little more forceful, says there are not voting members, but i guess not. copper i'm. still in the throes of earnings season. guess whose earnings came out today? a company called ibp, icahn enterprises. and emboldened the carl icahn joined us just a bit of talk about his increased stake and del. the icahn is looking for a management change. taken a near 10% stake in the company. we asked if he planned on buying any mo

dennis lockhart saying the labor market has made substantial progress, but there's still room for improvementas that continues, the fed should start pulling back on a stimulus programs. fed presidents from chicago and cleveland gave similar timetables last week. resigned from the board of j.c. penney, the result of an unusually public battle. last week he said that he lost confidence in the board and called for a new chairman. coca-cola defending the safety of artificial sweeteners. such half pop rock -- stop declining. and those of some of the house or is right now find foxbusiness.com. we have more coming up next. u.s. airways, an ♪ gerri: from our fox business studios in new york, here again is gerri willis. ♪ gerri: well, if the justice department has its way the proposed merger of u.s. airways and american airlines will not fly, all because of the impact it could have on your bottom line. rich edson is live in washington d.c. with the latest. >> reporter: good evening. reagan national airport right across the river from washington d.c. and the justice department, this is the airport they

dennis lockhart saying the labor market has made substantial progress, but there's still room for improvementg as that continues, the fed should start pulling back on a stimulus programs. fed presidents from chicago and cleveland gave similar timetables last week. resigned from the board of j.c. penney, the result of an unusually public battle. last week he said that he lost confidence in the board and caed for a new chairman. coca-cola defending the safety of artificial sweeteners. such half pop rock --top declining. and those of some of the house or is right now find foxbusess.com. we have more coming u next. u.s. airways, an the boys used double miles from their capital one venture card to fly home for the big family reion. you must be garth's father? hello. mother. mother! traveling is easy with the venture card because you can fly any airline anytime. wo words. double miles! this guy can act wna play dodge rock? , you ys! and with double miles you can actuay use, you never miss the fun. beard growing contest and go! ♪ win! what's in your wallet? win! a quarter million tweeters a. is bein

this week fed officials james bullard and dennis lockhart commented on the central bank's plan to unwind the bond buying program. we see what happened to the markets, down big-time. but has the fed itself become too fixated on stock markets and not concerned about the effect of its actions on main street? a lot of people are concerned about that. joining me in a fox business exclusive is dallas federal reserve president, richard fisher. richard, wonderful to see you. thank you for coming in again. >> thank you, david. david: let's first talk about the news of the day with interest rates at above 2.8. that is a huge increase from their low point of 1.6 which was historically low obviously almost doubling of interest rates in three months. why is that happening, do you think? >> well, i think the market has come to realize, first, that there's no qe infinity which is the subject on everybody's tongue not too long ago. secondly the economy is improving. we're seeing better numbers in the economy. you would expect to see a steepening of the yield curve as you go further out in maturities. so

the most recent of which is atlanta fed president dennis lockhart, who said he's echoed wh

lockhart, dennis lockhart of the fed, said the economy was uneven, recent datas to not present a clear economic picture. the bond market doesn't necessarily believe that, because the bond market stayed up throughout the day. yields stayed up throughout the day. they still believe that fed tapering is coming in september. retail sales actually moved the market this morning, very unusual. that's what happened. it was the first production number for july. we'll get industrial production on thursday. this was the real hard economic number for july. the bottom line, traders believed it was good enough for the fed to start tapering in september. the bond market actually moved on that number. the yields moved up. the big issue is just how much will the fed taper be. that's why the market will be a little bit uneven until we get to the fed meeting on september 17th. again, we'll get industrial production on thursday. you can see how unshaky the market was. homebuilders immediately dropped. reits dropped. interest rate sensitive, worried about the cutting back on mortgage backed securities, and

>> scott, atlanta fed president dennis lockhart saying there will not be enough data to make a decisionin september. he thinks it should be the beginning of a process not a one off deal but the decision should be a cautious first step and he's saying it needs tone sure the labor market is not stalling and he's concerned about disinflation and the debt ceiling debate. he says i don't think a decision that commits the fed to a full phase-out of asset purchases in september and lays out a precise beginning to the end path for doing so would be advisable. so lockhart does not have a vote this year but he's somebody worth following and if he's saying there's not going to be enough data in september you wonder how many people on thef omc might have some sympathy for that idea. >> steve, he also seems to be suggesting that you can't taper necessarily because you can't rely on the people in congress not to drive the car into a ditch. >> that's been a concern out there, even the fed chairman has brought up that notion, scott, that there's still that big uncertainty in the fall about what happens

one group, dennis lockhart from atlanta suggest many the fed could, in fact, taper in september. >> the'm thinking of it at the moment is i'm actually looking at the data and asking if they deny or in some way undermine the basic outlook that i have in place. on that basis, then i can get comfortable with the move in september of some time. >> i do think if the data continue to progress as we've seen, and i do agree that we should edge down or taper or purchase later this year. >> but jim from st. louis, he had another opinion. he thinks the data is sht clear enough and he thinks the federal reserve ought to wait. >> i don't think we have to be in any hurry in this situation. if the place is running low and we have mixed data on the economy. so, you know, i would be cautious. i would notn't to pre-judge the meeting, but i think we want to take our time, assess what's going on before we make a move here. >> among the research papers is one by noted economist robert hall who said one of the biggest mistakes the central bank could make was to withdraw stimulus too soon. there's debate over

than 30 points on the day, the s&p ending up 4, while the nasdaq gained 14 after fed president dennis lockhart the central bank may not taper 80s bonds buying program next month. the justice department is fighting plans for usair and american airlines to merge saying the end result would be higher fairs for consumers. and billionaire investor carl icahn tweeted he's taking on a large position at apple. prompting a spike in the company's stock today. that's it from cnbc, we're first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." >>> what i need from you is to know what you can do, you and your fellow noncommunist colleagues in the lower house, what you can do to stop these communist tyrannical executive orders laid down by this foreign-born american-hating communist despot. what can you do for me? >> welcome back to "hardball." if you're a fan of the program, you might remember that clip. that was representative martha robe being confronted by a rather energized audience member at a town hall in alabama, the kind of anger, hatred and at times racism that's infused recent conservative events and

as dennis lockhart from atlanta said a week or so ago, they better be ready for the market to put theng in if it's going to do something now at the beginning, even a taper light, without the right language on the backside, would cause the market to bring forward future tightening. >> you really have to wonder the motivation for a $5 billion, $10 billion cutback. either the economy is strong enough, or it's not. >> 2/20. >> and the earnings have decelerated. profit growth lower. so add that to the overall economic story of an anemic pace that's stuck in neutral. >> before we go, rick, we just had an analyst on, maybe you heard him, talking about his concerns about yields, you know, in asia and elsewhere, and how they've been going in a direction that he feels there's a bubble building over there that could be bufr burst by the fed beginning to taper. what do you think? >> i think that bubble's already in the process of bursting. i think those comments are about three weeks late. >> ha. so. much like the minutes, as they were released today. >> much like the minutes. >> thank you, guys.

stocks fell on comments from chicago fed head charles evans and atlanta fed chief dennis lockhart thatg should begin in september. so when is it right to be worried about stocks? is it the second half of this year? is that going to be the deal? let's bring in cnbc contributor john rutledge. he is the chief investment strategist for safanad. i hope i got that right. >> safanad. >> josh lipton's going to stay with us. john rutledge, is this a fed-obsessed market? is it going to always be a tapered market? and should people sell on the rallies before the fall? >> i think you sell the bonds and buy the stocks, larry. you know, this is -- everybody's worried about taper. it's reverse taper that's the real interesting question because once they get done with all this they're going to have to sell $3 trillion of security. that's $250 billion a month for a year, and people haven't wised up to that yet. if they don't do it, we've got an inflation story down the road. so right now i think it's a bond-stock allocation question. >> but john, just a quick follow-up, please. i have not seen you in a

this morning we got a little more insight from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart who spoke with ourwn steve liesman at the fed's jackson hole conference. >> i would be supportive in september as long as the data that comes in between now and then basically confirm the path we're on. >> all right. so you get one voting member, and that's key, in favor, but what about the others? morgan stanley's chief u.s. economist vince reinhart is a former fed insider and he joins us from jackson hole. how would you handicap the odds of the fed reducing bond buying in september? >> pretty high. the only thing that would get in their way is a weak employment report. that's not in our forecast. basically they want to get started with the business of exiting qe. they want to do it under chairman bernanke's watch. they think the economy is doing better, and they can send signals through their thresholds on rate guidance. >> why are you so confident in the fed though? >> mainly because that's what they've been saying. they have said data dependent, but they've basically been avoiding mentioning low inf

he's making the point of saying it again now on the heels of dennis lockhart from atlanta making the comments yesterday. another comment he makes is that the fed is wrong here to think that the market can make a -- can make a difference between when it starts to taper and when it's going to hike rates. this is really calling into question an essential cannon of fed chairman ben bernanke who's really gone out there pounding this idea that the fed is on a two-track system with its two important tools -- raising rates and quantitative easing. he's saying the market is not going to make that difference. and the implication of that is you better be ready for the market to tighten policy when you tart to taper. another important thing, saying fmoc and private sector forecasts have been too high. finally, this is worth noting, especially after today's flat producer price index, it could decrease the inflation, another thing that suggests bullard, who, by the way, is a voter, and dissented earlier, he is not ready to taper. and i'm not sure when he'll be ready to taper, maria. >> all right,

the most recent of which is atlanta fed president dennis lockhart, who said he's echoed what we've had before that the tapering of the quantitative easing by the fed is likely to start in september. that was the headline. then you read the whole story, and he says, or maybe it won't. so it's the same story you've been hearing, but the market chose to listen to that part of the story. in just a bit, maria's special interview with actor and technology investor ashton kutcher. he, of course, is portraying apple co-founder steve jobs in the major motion picture that opens next week. we'll get his take on jobs. it's truly fascinating. plus, we're going to talk about his very successful run as a technology investor. get this. it now totals about $100 million in start-ups. so you want to stay tuned for that interview with ashton kutcher coming up. also, one hour from now, the president is in phoenix, set to deliver a major address on the housing market. he's proposing huge changes for the entire structure of the mortgage business in this country, including getting rid of freddie and fannie. s

you have deadline from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart.t. it was on when the fed should start considering it quantitative easing and he said he would not rule out the fed's september meeting. take a listen. >> the outlook that i have in mind, that the economy will improve a little bit in the second half, continue on this moderate growth path, deflationary numbers will begin to edge toward our target of 2% and move up gradually, unemployment will come down, the jobs picture will continue to produce net jobs of 175-200 herman. if that outlook holds, then i think we can consider beginning to wean the economy from quantitative easing. >> he didn't give me a number, 10 or twenty billion, or anything like that, but the significance of this is if the fed decides to do this it will be the beginning of the end of all of this stimulus, this quantitative easing, trillions of dollars the fed has pumped into the economy when the financial crisis began. stuart: it may be the time it all starts winding down. let's go to nicole petallides, steve ballmer,

peter: i talked with dennis lockhart the president of the atlanta revenue bank this morning and he saidnot rule out starting to wean the economy off of quantitative easing at the fed's policy meeting in september. >> that outlook that i have in mind and that is that the economy will improve a little bit in the second half. inflation numbers will begin to edge towards our target of 2% and move up gradually. unemployment will come down. the jobs picture will continue to produce net jobs of 175-200 per month. if that outlook holds, i think we can consider beginning to wean the economy from quantitative easing. peter: we will be talking to a lot more of the attendees. christine lagarde the director of the international monetary fund, we will get her take on how all of these bailouts in europe are proceeding. back to you. tracy: peter barnes from one of the most beautiful spots in the country. bernanke is absent from jackson hole. >> what i found interesting is a lot of people have been talking about the need to be a team player. i think larry summers history is showing that is not really hi

dennis lockhart of the fed bank of atlanta, making similar comments yesterday. lori? replanned. peter barnes, thank you, the way we hear from these fed firms. dennis: yes, all orchestrated. let's talk about succession. succession fever at goldman sachs as the number two guy gary cone is asking for more media attention. charlie gasparino, senior correspondent and author of "circle of friends," joins us for exclusive details. >> gary cohn is number two. he wants to be number one. he is teed off blankfein got all -@the publicity following gay rights, blankfein did something very unusual for a wall street ceo. came out very heavily in favor of gay rights. got lots of publicity. cohn is essentially asking for publicity. he is demanding media attention. more interviews with friendly reporters. this is kind of an interesting battle inside the place because it says something about succession. gary cohn wants to be number one. how do you be number one? you have to be in front of people. he is not coming in front of me. he is going in front of friendly reporters. this is what is

among the reasons that were cited, fed fears, you had fed president dennis lockhart and charles evansbank could begin tapering easy money program as early as september. there was some doubts after that lousy jobs report we got last friday. but there is more fed talk today. philadelphia's charles plosser will be speaking at 12:30 on his economic outlook and cleveland's sandro pianalto talking about an hour later on the regional economy. in the meantime, the bank of japan kicked off a two-day

dennis lockhart speaks about the economy at 10:45. from coupon company val spar, jdc uniphase and theme park operator seaworld. let's get back to martin a la clerk. which data point or what are you going to be looking out for today? retail sales or is it lockhart? which one will move the market more? >> well, probably retail sales, though the price of the retail stocks kind of indicate the market expects the numbers to be fairly decent. all of the stocks are selling near their all time highs or near their 52 week highs. i would think that might be the more salient data point. >> just how reliable are the retail sales really, though. we know retail sales all over the world generally tend to be quite volatile. how much of an indicator is this for the strength of the u.s. consumer, really? >> well, one of the things we know is we definitely are in a muddle through economy. the stock market is up 20% in the u.s. in the past year. corporate earnings are only up about 4%. and if you strip out the financials, corporate earnings are down. par

atlanta fed president dennis lockhart, st.ed chief james bullard and san francisco's john williams. july new home sales out at 10:00 a.m. eastern. forecast to drop by 1.4%. just a pair of notable earnings today, retailers, ann and foot locker. >>> gap had a strong profit rise following higher sales. will the improved performance translate to a win for investor. we get analysis of the high street favorite. [ male announcer ] it's time. time to have new experiences with a familiar keyboard. to update our status without opening an app. to have all our messages in one place. to browse... and share... faster than ever. ♪ it's time to do everything better than before. the new blackberry q10. it's time. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understand 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...far away. ♪ what do you do when you can no lo

i lowered my odds for september taper to 60/40 based on comments from dennis lockhart and jim, both saide they would have enough information in september to make that decision. >> 60/40 against. not taper. >> right. i've also been corresponding on background with jim. he wonders when is the moment the market will get that clear guyence from the federal reserve. the calendar is such that september is when we'll get the guidance. more likely we would get it. he said we should press conferences every month. i agree with look heart, joe, on the following which i don't think the data is decisive enough in order for the fed to make that move. i want to layer in what lockhart said. when we start this we have to figure the market is going to price this to the end so we better be sure what we're going to do here. both of those guys, i thought the fete wanted to do this. they may still want to. i think they worked hard to get that flexibility. give you want for the mft cement. this is not inside knowledge on my part. i read their speeches, they make sense to me. >> even if they started with 5 or 1

dennis lockhart from atlanta. john williams from san francisco.st, middle and west. we are going to try to get some clarity. my personal take for what it's worth is that this lack of confidence in all of these three things, especially policy and the economic outlook is dovish for a taper in september. with a lack of confidence, they may not want to pull the trigger. i want to add one thing, joe, they gave an interview to the "wall street journal" the president of boston saying if you are not sure you should move small or incrementally. i don't think that's what the fed will decide. i think if they move, they will hoff in some large krung chunk. it may wear the day at the fed. >> gildan stern, is he dead? listen, the one thing i came up with a couple things i need. that's why i wish you were here. i would have run them by you. summarize it really quickly. number one, we watch all of this and watch what the stockmarket does, that's what we are focused on. we are below 15,000 now, in the middle of a correction. it's been a crappy two or three weeks,

have john williams, james bullard and i hope i'm having a rick perry moment here, we will have dennis lockhartpresident. >> i'm sure you will be fishing by sunday. steve, thank you. >> got that right. >>> now, our next guest, let's continue the fed discussion here. he says the fed tapering concerns are over done and if it does taper it won't cause a major market disruption. good morning. >> good morning. >> you've heard that back and forth a little bit with steve. concerns i guess in the market over the last 24 hours about the fed minutes bag as clear as mud. what's your base case now for what the fed does here? do you think that -- as we sort of suggested, in your intro, there's not a whole lot the marks should be worried about? >> no, i would say -- i would probably take issue with both of those characterizations. one is, i don't think that they were -- the minutes were unclear at all. i think they were very clear that they are committed to the timeline laid out by the chairman. that likely means september. they dismiss the idea of lowering the interest rate threshold for unemployment from 6

natural gas, down 3.9 but kind of take that out, and when i look at it and when i think about what dennis lockhartig concerns are, well, he's not sure that employment is on steady course. he's not sure we're out of the woods on disinflation or a debt ceiling debate in the fall so let me through that to drew. drew, first of all, i guess there's two questions to you. one is the -- how concerned is the fed on this issue of disinflation right now, and, secondly, what do you get from this report on that story? >> i think they are very concerned about inflation in part because the payroll numbers have actually led them to believe they should taper, right? >> right. >> they had to go to something in order to justify the fact that they are still buying a whole lot of trish ice, i'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist but if something isn't working in your direction you switch to something else saying this is the new important thing to focus on. i would point out, looking at last month's cpi report that it turned so what we have is producer prices coming down and consumer prices actually beginning to mo

among the reasons that were cited, fed fears, you had fed president dennis lockhart and charles evans suggesting the central bank could begin tapering easy money program as early as september. there was some doubts after that lousy jobs report we got last friday. but there is more fed talk today. philadelphia's charles plosser will be speaking at 12:30 on his economic outlook and cleveland's sandro pianalto talking about an hour later on the regional economy. in the meantime, the bank of japan kicked off a two-day meeting today, widely expected to maintain its pledge of increasing monetary base at an annual pace of 600 billion to $0 $700 billion. t we'll be watching very chosely. european trading, you can see the stocks there are off a little bit too. the worst performances the ftse 100, down over 1.2%. down about 80 points. the u.s. equity futures here are looking like they are also indicated lower. the dow futures are indicated down by almost 60 points. s&p futures off by just over 7 points, and, again, the decline we saw yesterday, the 93-point drop, the worst performance we have s