let me get to the other news of the day, as if it's an afterthought, which it's not, and that's dennis lockhart. >> this is a profound conversation. this really gets at the heart of the kwauquandry of investment. part of being a d.a. here -- >> lockhart is leaving in february. >> lockhart is leaving in february. he is a centrist on the board. one of the few non-economists out there. there's no timetable to appoint him. we're going to learn a little bit more about the process in october. i guess it's a couple of weeks from now. lockhart has been at the fed since 2007. he is a guy i have known for a very long time. a guy who you follow when you want to know if it's a close decision. if dennis is leaning towards a hike, it's likely going to be a hike because he doesn't have a dog in the fight from a philosophical standpoint on interest rates. he is just a guy who came to really be a managing partner of private equity at zephyr. he had a bunch of banking experience, private equity experience. the kind of guy on the fed that if there's one other aspect worth talking about, there's been a lot of cont

and dennis lockhart saying i'm sure we've got to start doing this. i fear, jon, i know the fed is in a tough position but fear the transparency era ushered in by ben bernanke has really created a monster. these independent voices are a confusing c confusing cacophony for the investor right now? >> that is something we have to ask janet yellen in her press conference next week. yellen is in part to blame, he was out there herself saying the case had strength end for a rate move. and the result of an economy that never cooperates with the fed's own forecast. they're expecting inflation to pick up. expecting 2% growth. expecting unemployment rate to fall. the unemployment rate hasn't fallen. liz: it's always something. >> inflation isn't rising to their forecast. they're changing their minds because the numbers aren't coming in the way we expected it. liz: we got charles payne in the chair, one of the best fed watchers, second to you, jon. chafrls "making money." do they need to shut down all of the speeches? >> i think it is very, very confusing, and i

dennis lockhart announced he's going to be leaving the federal reserve so, you know, a little uncertaintyterms of the board of governors at the ped and fears, of course, he could be replaced by someone very hawkish, though given the dovishness of the fed, we kind of doubt it. oil prices falling again today after the iea, international energy agency, cut its forecast for global demand growth for this year. if you've got a global economy that's not growing, guess what? people aren't buying much oil. settling at just under $45 a barrel, down 3%. jeff flock is at the cme with more on all this. jeff? >> reporter: and down another nickel in the afterhours, trish, we're at $44.86 the last trade. yeah, it was those numbers on demand, but, you know, it's important to note i think there may have been a little bit of an overreaction in that demand is not going to be down, it's just the forecast by the iea is for less demand growth, slower and not as much demand growth. but there still will be growth. other headline for me today, you know, for the past two years the u.s. has been the number one produ

but this does look like it is a mandatory retirement on the part of dennis lockhart.er federal if he is appointed after the age of 55, he can only serve for 10 years and is appointed at age 60 almost 10 years ago and was almost 70 when he had to step down and is stepping down in february of 2017. the atlanta fed is now going to assemble a group of non-thank you members of its members of his board and it will conduct a search to replace lockhart and it has retained executive search for stuart to conduct a search. neil: when they do so, do they look like someone like-minded to come up with this supreme court justice, is it the same way there or someone of confidence? >> competence. dennis is one of the few real bankers and the fed system. he worked as citigroup in the 70s and 80s but they do look for bankers. they look at academics, economists and sometimes business people. neil: thank you, peter barnes. pingback a most deplorable comments comments. did you see this? >> for hillary clinton to express such disdain. one more reason that disqualifies her. anyone who has th

the president of the federal reserve bank of atlanta, dennis lockhart, stepping down in february aftercade leading that bank. lockhart has been valued as a centrist voice at the fed but recently called for a rate hike sooner rather than later. no timetable for finding his replacement. >>> separatist leaders in eastern ukraine announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight tomorrow. the conflict between russian backed separatist rebels and ukrainian government troops has killed more than 9500 people since it began in april of 2014. >>> russia is pushing to make public the cease-fire agreement for syria that it and the united states agreed to. foreign minister sergey lavrov telling reporters in moscow that the u.s. opposes the move but lavrov says russia has nothing to hide. >>> and americans finally got a pay raise last year after eight years of stagnating income. income rose 5.2% in 2015 to about $56,500. that still remains below the median income of $57,400 in 2007, before the big recession. that's the news update at this hour. let's send it back to you, brian. >> all right, s

. >> only dennis lockhart said, quote, i'm satisfied at this point that conditions warrant serious discussionend quote, of a rate hike. here is one reporter's subjective view of where the ten voters at the meeting stand on hiking rates, based on their previous comments. four look likely to vote for a hike, and three, including fed chair, janet yellen, are possible supporters. two fed governors, brainard and dan at your you'llo unknown. it likely they will side with the chair once she makes up her mind as it's rare for governors to dissent, as opposed to bank presidents who dissent more often. it depends on janet yellen who said in august that the case was strengthening for a rate hike. there had been some luke warm data since then. we'll find out next wednesday if she has changed her mind. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesm. >>> professional trader who has to come in every day and put money on the line. they are obsessed about what the fed is doing because interest rates at such extreme lows, there has to be some move in stocks and bonds and the dollar if and when the fed moves ag

fedy, there will be three speakers closely watched by the markets, starting with dennis lockhart, presidentnta fed. he has been relatively upbeat on the economy, looking for a stronger gdp growth in the second half. if he continues in that direction, it would not be such a surprise. kashkari will be talking about banking. he will not give us any clues on monetary policy. it is governor brainard everyone will be watching. she is typically dovish before and interest-rate increase. the markets learned she would be speaking. thate sounds hawkish, could be a sign the fed is trying to get people prepped for a rate hike in september. our bloomberg intelligence team is saying it will not happen in september. it will be december if at all this year. the last survey of economists shows only 17% are looking for a september rate hike. if the fed were to move next week, it would be out of character. i am kathleen hays for bloomberg television in new york. manus: our next guest thinks the movement in the bond market is more about the ecb and bank of japan concerns than the fed. an analystnow is with mizu

and that the atlanta fed president, dennis lockhart and neel kashkari.fficials can speak publicly until after next week's meeting whether they decide not to raise rates. kashkari will join us live in a few minutes. >>> in deal news, a merger of equals, and forming a $36 billion company. in other corporate news, tesla is changing the way its auto pilot works following a fatal crash in may. there's plans to revise the mode saying the updated system will depend more on radar signals and the company will add safeguards to keep drivers engaged at high speeds, and all of this is happening in a new software update they will send over the air to the entire fleet in the next week or two. >>> and then hillary clinton's health this morning, she cancelled events following the pneumonia diagnosis. >> are you feeling better? >> yes, thank you very much. thank you. >> that was interesting. correct me if i am wrong, but that was not donald trump? am i right about that? i am glad you are here to help me out. we will get that loaded up, maybe, john, while we are talking t

the atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. down in february after 10 years.anet yellen and never dissented from the majority. monday, he said higher rates should be discussed at next week's policy meeting. he also said there is no urgent need to move. a committee of non-fed to directors will look for lockhart said that lockhart's replacement. our next guests says volatility may spring into all asset classes the fed decides to raise. olivier is md of asia-pacific. it is a good kind of category to be in right now because i want to take you into our bloomberg right now. it's like mustang sally, nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide. we have basically taking a look at equity markets. we are looking at the gold spot price. they are all down, yields are going up. equities falling with volatility return. >> we had an unusually calm summer and to be fair, we have the business complement. the vicks was below 12. the issue we had globally is central banks in the u.s. and europe and japan have been intervening into the market. the fundamental markets don't make any sense a

dennis lockhart says he wants to encourage further discussion about a rate increase.otwithstanding a few recent week monthly reports from the institute for supply management, for example, i am satisfied at this point that conditions warrant that serious discussion. rishaad: the message from the fed governor is they will proceed with caution. she said while the economy is making gradual progress, the bank should not jump to tighten. effecthe extent that the on inflation of further gradual tightening and labor market conditions is likely to be moderate and gradual, the case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling. spokespersonrgan's says the u.s. economy is strong enough, and the time to raise rates is now. >> the fed has to maintain credibility, and i think it is time to raise rates. normality is a good thing, not a bad thing. create an economy that has been going on like this for seven years is a good thing. to make, the return to normal is a good thing. gets much more psychological attention than the actual economic effect of raising rates. guest says, next

why don't we start were an event i think will nail everything home, a speech by dennis lockhart. i expect him to say we need a hike and we need it now. this guy's wanted to tighten even when it could have been catastrophic to raise rates. you can only imagine how he feels about it now. it can get worse. neil kashkari speaks. the last time we heard from neel one anyway? forewarns is forearmed. after the close, united natural foods. i think it's too high. i believe it will reflect that in the reports. if you want to bottom fish in that beleaguered universe, at least wait until you hear what they say. the selloff started when european central bank chose basically to do nothing, nothing aggressive to stimulate their economy. i think it's because things are better over there. but we have german inflation numbers coming out tuesday morning, and if these figures are at all stronger, we will have the wind of recession in our faces. i've been consistent with what i've said in the show. i think when you're walking through a mine field as we are when we get closer and closer to the fed meet

we hear from several fed officials including atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. >>> what can we expecttoday's session? joining us is dan hackman, senior fixed income strategist. welcome. i know you focussed on fixed income, but it feels like oil is at the center of global market moves. are you surprised to see it down this morning after that big agreement out of opec yesterday? >> not surprised by the -- i would say the profit taking, sara. opec has a history of noncompliance. so i think there's a reasonable amount of doubt. but i think there's validity to the cut in opec production. saudi arabia, if you remember, cut compensation to several government officials, announced that this week. to me it's an indication they're suffering, running some budget deficits over there. they have a lot of incentive to have oil prices rise. this does help the markets to rebalance, speed that process up. bottom line, commodity prices have bottomed here. >> dan, one other big factor driving u.s. equities over the last week or two is the state of european banks. the general effect that's had on risk sent

. >> the fed members, those are divide as the atlta president dennis lockhart has a more hawkish note. he says whether the debate on hike rate deserves serious discussion. he's confident unemployment will fall and inflation is heading in the right direction. he later then commented there was urgency to act at any one meeting in particular. now in an exclusive interview with cnbc, it was said the u.s. needs fiscal policy. >> we're seeing trends all around the world, low interest rates, sluggish recovery. i'm asking like many people are why is that? the rule of the thumb deeper the recession strongest recovery. yet we've had the weakest recovery since the great depression. it's things like demographics, slowing growth of the workforce. the ageing of our society. lackluster technological innovation and psychological scarring coming out of the crisis. >> meanwhile barclay ceo said tighter central bank policy would damage stock markets suggesting rates should move higher. in an exclusive interview he also said the fed pursued the right approach. >> the fed has shown the right level of caut

. >> if we did see a hike next week, on that note, the three speakers today to focus on dennis lockharts at 8:05 eastern time. then he takes question from the media as well. at 1:00 p.m. eastern neel kashkari will take about the u.s. economy. and the speech everyone is talking about, lael brainard at 1:00 p.m. eastern. >>> and elon musk is announcing plans to approve the autopilot system for tesla. >> ceo elon musk says the update will be delivered to vehicles over the air and affect tesla cars built since october 2014. and in the update, the autopilot feature depends on radar signal more than cameras to help guide the vehicles along roadways and add safeguards to keep drivers engaged at high speed. musk says the safeguard warnings may have prevented the accident earlier this year when the car failed to brake automatically because the system couldn't distinguish a truck's white trailer. the radar would have detected the trailer, but we'll keep in mind that autopilot will never be perfect. >> i do want to emphasize this does not mean perfect safety. this is by no means, perfect safety is

then patrick harker, atlanta's dennis lockhart, cleveland's loretta mester speaking in philadelphia noontern time and rob kaplan in houston speaking at 12:30. a lot of fed speak from a lot of folks who have opinions about what just happened this week. >> clearly the fed presidents have opinions and that's what was so confusing in the run-up to this big fed meeting. but i think janet yellen cleared it up pretty well saying we're on hold for now, we're patiently waiting for the economy to have, in her words, room to run, as well as inflation, and signaling that a hike is still very possible. potentially in december. doesn't give a calendar date. but for all of the hand wringing over the fed and the bank of japan, it has been a strong week. >> a great week overall. the only thing that some people will say is the idea that this week to date it is the utilities and interest rate sensitive sectors leading the way higher. all of that because of that more dovish central bank stance, not just from here in the fed but elsewhere around the world. >> the dow up 1.5% up until now for the week. the na

we are hearing from dennis lockhart, the atlanta fed president, a centrist.he gives a strongly hawkish effect it will have an but not as much as the lael brainard speech will have at this point. the theo you look at brp function, or do you look at end of the yield curve? peter: we look at both. alix: with growth slowing around the world, it will not take much --the way of and they get if of a negative economic shot to break the tension. peter hooper breaks down the five headed dragon that could weigh on global activity, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's get a check of the markets for you. deep into negative territory, more of the same after the s&p 500 posted the biggest one-day loss since june 24 of this year. futures down by 1.19 on the dow. in europe, the -- futures down by 119 on the dow. dollar-yen with a 101 handle. the story in the bond market, starting to differentiate things a little bit. friday was a blanket selloff. today treasuries are relatively resilient with yields just off one basis point at 1.69%. david, it is pretty much risk off commodity. d

patrick harker, dennis lockhart, loretta mester all have public appearance.a voting member of the if rks omc this year. with people still trying to figure out what to do next, we'll pay attention. >>> marriott's acquisition of starwood hotels is now complete. the $13 billion deal creates the world's largest hotel company. marriott expects the transaction will save it about $250 million annually and we'll get a chance to hear all of this straight in the horse's mouth. that's coming up at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. just an hour from now. >>> valvoline debuting today on the new york stock exchange. raising about $660 million. the auto maintenance company was spun off from ashland. >>> meanwhile john stumpf has stepped down from the san francisco fed advisory council. wells fargo tells cnbc stumpf made a personal decision to resign. his top priority is leading wells fargo. it comes just days after he appeared in a senate banking hearing. >>> here are stocks to watch today. shares of imperva -- bids to come out in two weeks. and bats global markets rising when cboe i

word today that atlanta said think president, dennis lockhart, will step down at the end of february. a search will begin to find his successor from a diverse group of candidates. that is your business flash update. scarlet: staying on the federal reserve, kevin warsh says that he favors extended blackout periods for doing more listening and less talking. he explained breaking down the -- the danger of breaking down fed policy into a science. >> to believe in these forecasts that have only been wrong consistently for seven years is a bad way to make economic policy and dangerous for markets to follow. mark b.: what are the outcomes then? this line here shows the 20% appreciation of the dollar through january of this year, it is the equivalent of a 200 basis ike.t h what you make of communications like that coming from the fed? >> i take as a judgment. the judgment is they want the dollar to be weaker. that is not a hock or a dove, it is u.s. policy. it is not a policy that i would favor. the fed is in the business of establishing short-term interest rates. there is a free flow of capi

dennis lockhart sounded hawkish and said conditions warrant serious discussion of a rate hike. it all depends on fed chair janet yellen who said the case was strengthening for a rate hike. there has been lukewarm data since she made remarks. we will find out next wednesday if she changed her mind. >> it appears they are going into this meeting divided. there is no -- doesn't feel like there is an overarching theme. wanted to get your opinion and comments from the republican presidential nominee donald trump. during an interview he talked about janet yellen and interest rates. here is what he said. >> staying at zero because she is political and she is doing what obama wants her to do. she is keeping them artificially low to get obama retired. watch what will happen afterwards. i think it is very political. i think she is very political and to a certain extent i think she should be ashamed of herself. >> i come from a time and a period where one would not make such charges without evidence of it. the question i have for donald trump would be where would you put rates? what evide

dennis lockhart tried to see things over and of course we've got another speech coming at 1:00. neil: with the look at all of this from the prevailing wisdom seems every time it looks like the federal reserve could reverse course and move up on interest rates the market have a tantrum and when the markets have a tantrum the fed eases that what you make of that? >> well, that is true. backing 20 about then, they have been delighting every single match or for themselves. ben bernanke said when unemployment rates were at 6.7 the fed should start raising rates. no unemployment rates are 5.9%. the problem is the fed isn't going to have any more ammunition when we go into the next recession. gross domestic investment is down. gdp about 1% in a very real concern as to what's going to happen in the future as growth keeps on flowing. neil: you've always told me if i could extend it politically to what's going on last week when i was talking to mark cuban, he was saying the uncertainty of a trump presidency append getting elected the state to resolve off. even for them it wasn't a right o

significant because i understand that your said regional bank president in my hometown of atlanta, dennis lockhart, is retiring. we have never had an african-american regional fed presidents. i'm asking you, take this opportunity to make history. qu have many excellent qualified african-americans who could do this and finally, i want to applaud you and frank tarullo for what you are doing with the test and committing to working with this flexibility. thank you. >> time has expired in the chair recognizes the gentleman from new mexico, mr. pierce. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you chairman gallon for being here. the gentle lady from new york mentioned travels of puerto rico and if you are meant to summarize those in a phrase basically was the root of the problem there? >> i think deep-seated structural problems pertaining to puerto rico's fundamental economic situation of given rise and exact for-- exasperated problems. >> now, when i'm looking back through your 2008 crisis i notice your balance sheet jumped from about 900 billion to 2.2 or something like that. what was the reason your balance

only dennis lockhart sounded hawkish, saying conditions warrant discussion of a rate hike.t low rate is appropriate. what does it all mean? it all comes down to janet yellen, had said in august in jackson hole, the case for strengthing for a rate hike and lukewarm data since then. we'll find out next wednesday if she changed her mind or not. >> the brainard bounce is back. we're back at session highs. >> i cautioned a bunch of times, right after a major fed event or data, the market bounces as there is this -- >> adjusting. >> i think it is a black box phenomenon. that's the way the market trades. and then i think people come in with maybe more prudent analysis or whatever you want to call it, human analysis. >> steve, thank you. what is the big bond trading firms making their way to the fed had headlines. dom chu has more. >> melissa, let's lead off with who howard lutnick, kind enough to join us here. we're going to get to that in one second. we heard steve liesman breaking down the comments from fed governor lael brainard, some other comments from lockhart and rosengrend

dovish the dev rish -- -- dennis lockhart from atlanta is a voter and neel kashkari from indianapolisata between now and then, including the cpi report. will that trump all of that data and keep the fed from acting? jonathan: i want to go back to a quote from erik nielsen from unicredit. the fed increasingly assembled a boat in choppy waters without a boat and without a captain but with many crewmembers opining what they should do and many people yelling with advice from the shore. the fed captain is expected to take control and dampen the noise we have had from other federal reserve issues but she did not do that. when will she? michael: it does not look like she will before september 21 and that could be a problem. if people are looking for guidance, it is a little bit next. we saw janet yellen take a neutral view, stanley fischer say they could do two rate rises this year so we do not know. the august payrolls report is somewhat disappointing at 150,000 but it is what you need to keep the unemployment rate from going down. recovery again, the number has been revised by 100,000. the

>> but atlanta fed president dennis lockhart, he suggested he has seen enough.ote, conditions warrant a serious discussion of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting in september. finally, he concludes his speech by asking if the current low rate is still appropriate. here is my very subjective take on all the fed speak so far and where and how they would vote if there was a rate hike on the table. i think stan fisher, esther george, would vote for a hike. i think janet yellen is possible given her comments that the time is nearing for hiking rates. bill dudley might join her. and james bullard as well. unlikely perhaps daniel tarullo, and i don't know how j. powell would vote at the upcoming meeting. here's another chart says, hey, if the fed chair does decide to vote who would side with her and i think she essentially would have nine votes. i think all of those people would likely join, i don't know about brainard, but she would likely have nine votes if yellen decides that she wants to hike. and ten possibly depending upon how lael brainard decides to vote. carl,

atlanta fed president dennis lockhart will step down in february.nts. not sure what that means. it would not have a vote on the open policy committee next year. he's stepping down. either way, the dow did his session was following that news. peter kiernan, what is the significance? >> as significant as people are watching every twist and turn in shanghai. one fed governor says we must raise rates. another sad this is the wrong time. it's impossible to discern. stuart: we've got to go. two items to report. i ran threatening to shoot down two s. navy plane. tell us both stories coming out. you both have a perfect driving record. until one of you clips a food truck. then your rates go through the roof. perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. and if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assist you twenty-four seven. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. stuart: very close to the low of the day, down 200 or the point

significantsk because i understand that your fed regional bank president in my hometown of atlanta, dennis lockhart, is retiring. we never had an african american regional fed president. i'm asking you, take this opportunity to make history. we have many excellent qualified african-americans who could do this. finally i want to applaud you and frank torillo. doing with the stress tests working with flexibility. thank you.h >> time of the gentleman has expired. the chair recognizes the gentleman from new mexico, mr. pierce. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you chairman yellen for being here. want to catch up that the gentlelady from new york talk about the problems in new y puerto rico. sum up in a word what is the root of the problem there? >> deep-seeded structural problems pertaining to puerto rico's fundamental economic situation that given rise of exacerbated fiscal problems. >> thanks. looking back through the 2008 crisis.>> i notice that your balance sheet jumped from 900 billion to 2.2, something like that. what was the reason your balance sheet jumped during that period of time? >> primary

we'll hear from dennis lockhart, jerome powell later today.er this morning during q&a in europe, harker said he wants to see rates normalize sooner rather than later. and at 8:30 eastern we'll be joined by esther george. she'll sit down with steve leisman in a cnbc exclusive. >>> and in washington today, we talked about him before. john stumpf. he's going to be back in the hot seat on capitol hill. he's going to testify before a house panel at 10:00 eastern time. that's where we find our good friend wilfred frost who joins us with what to expect. >> reporter: following your conversation just there with chairman hensarling, let's look at the areas where wells is improving on. first of all, the clawbacks, the major issue of last week's hearing. and wells has responded in a big way. if we compare it to the jamie dimon issue, he had his current year pay cut to $11 million for something that cost the firm $6 billion. stumpf on the other hand has given up $41 million of past pay and this year's salary for something that cost the bank in relative sen

lockhart as a fed official? >> well, i mean, you can say that this gdp now became available under dennis. the fed has always been covetous of its models. the atlanta fed was one of the first ones to really put it out there and say here is what our tracking model forecast looks like, a development that's been followed by other federal reserve districts. i think lockhart was special. he's also special because he's quite a fly fisherman. my guess is that's how he's going to use his time. >> it always comes back to that, steve. >> as you know. >> any more breaking news we'll come back to you. >>> when we return, mossberg is out with his definitive view of the iphone 7. why it leaves him impressed and annoyed at the same time. secretary lew, his keynote, plus top money managers. pan dora gets a deal with major record labels. we'll get details on that. red across the board. dow down 220. s&p now 2129. hey gawhat you got here? mobile trading desk b boyoys a thinkowimamly scs aos adinalyo, t?oh, mstomstuds gto e market'sot mobile trading desk b boyoys a ourm oydevice with inwim. ontdmeritrade ma!