welcome back, i'm kasie hunt live in des moines iowa.that was gop presidential candidate ron desantis. he of course as you do was projecting confidence in turnout from his voter base and his campaign's ground strategy here in the hawkeye state. desantis like rival vivek ramaswamy has really staked his entire campaign on succeeding here. he has been across the state heavily trying to sway voters in a state that served of course as the nation's first presidential testing ground for half a century. here with me now is shelby talcott and laura bellen political reporter for "bleeding hard land." thank you for being up in basically the middle of the night in iowa. it's the biggest day on the political calendar here and i'm thrilled to have you both with us. laura, let me start with you. you live here, you know what the cold is or isn't like. it is all anyone can talk about because it is so intense that it is going to potentially change how this thing turns out. how do you think it's going to change it? >> absolutely. it is really extreme. pers

here in des moines thank you.r i was state women's basketball team the unranked cyclones facing number four baylor at home in ames, iowa with a ticket early lead in the first quarter but baylor quickly took it back and held onto it until the fourth quarter. but bill, get this the clone scored in the last 30 seconds to win as i was state's second straight win against a top 25 25 opponent that would back in action this week taken on texas tech. it was a big deal because it sure is. she has her own cereal box now but no she doesn't yet. >> is a coming? what this coming now you can't talk about i would basketball and less you talk about caitlyn clark, right? >> sorry. it's against indiana. [laughter] right now check it out. >> six seconds here comes clerk. got three, up. caitlyn clark requests got in on the call. the senior guard scored a 30 she led the hawkeye's with dominant win over indiana supposed be really good game turned out really in favor by when the second half she is now number five in the all-time scoring

they include where des moines is. they include university towns like ames where iowa state is, iowa city, where the university of iowa is. these have the highest level of education, by and large, these counties do. i can put up this filter right here. and you can see, the darker areas have the greatest percentage of noncollege educated voters. lighter, college educated. you can see, all these light areas in places where joe biden did well. does this matter in a republican caucus? the answer is yes. yes, it can. i want to go back to 2016. it's hard to tell. both donald trump and marco rubio are red. but marco rubio is a right red. and you can see, the counties that marco rubio won are in these areas, the college towns, the capital des moines. and marco rubio finished third. it was a strong third, pretty close to first place. this is the type of finish that nikki haley would very much like to see on caucus night tonight. and marco rubio did campaign in that path. one group that thinks that nikki haley is some kind of th

it is 40 minutes or so drive from des moines, iowa, the big city. and when you have something happen in a smaller place, and i know that you from a large city, yourself, but it does have a wide-reaching impact, doesn't it, not just the student, and the staff and the families, but also on law enforcement. >> well, it does. everyone knows everyone else. some of the officers responding may very well have children who attend that high school. so, a small town like that, no doubt, this is something that has a huge impact, and it is going to have able pact on a community large or small, but in a small community, more people directly impacted by the shooting than in a big city perhaps. one other thing about the school in addition to canceling classes, you have to remember that this is a crime scene if in fact a shooting took place, and so that scene has to be secured and that school would be shutdown until the officers at the crime scene operators released the scene. >> chief, standby, if you will for a minute. senior producer erin ellish is there, and pro

aishah hasnie is here in des moines. she has more.i, aishah. >> reporter: hi, guys, good to see you here in des moines. and, yes, that weather really ate up a lot of that critical campaign face to face time for these candidates which is why all four, the top four, are on the campaign trail hitting the ground hard and shaking those hands. that includes former president trump. he had to cancel three rallies over the weekend. he is out on the trail today taking the stage at a rally in indianola any moment now. he met earlier today with a bunch of volunteers. governor ron desantis also holding a campaign event in dubuque right now. he canceled an event in sioux city, but he will be in in cedar rapids and an kenney later toda. vivek ramaswamy is about to speak in ames, he's got a full schedule as a well. this on the heels of a brand new des moines register poll that has former president trump remaining the front-runner with a commanding lead of 48%. the big change, guys, of course, is former south carolina governor nikki haley edging out f

so the trump team is camped out at hotel fort des moines. it was the hillary clinton campaign during one of her rounds of iowa caucuses that i covered that was camped out at the hotel fort des moines. this time it's trump's team, and tha that's where all of the action is. it's also at the 801 steak house. one of the traditional places. you run into people, senator joni ernst of iowa was there last night, and while there is the general sense of excitement, you know, events like this are a lot of fun, especially for political reporters like me. it's different than when there were these real big questions about who was going to win. that, i think, really sort of underscores the hill that ron desantis has to climb. for more on this, let's bring in cnn's elalayna treene in des moines at a different site. you kocover the trump campaign y in and day out. what are you hearing from them about how they're approaching the final days, and how first time caucus goers are reacting to the circumstances? >> reporter: right, well, that is the big question he

this is polk county where des moines is located.argest county in the state. 15% of the population here. you're talking about 15, 16, 17,000 votes back in 2016. with the population growth, will that expand and expand in a meaningful way that nikki haley can capitalize in. the other question now is what about those rural voters? that's considered to be a stronghold for donald trump, particularly in these areas here, these former counties that used to go toward democrats, moved sharply toward donald trump in the general election in 2020. can he make end rotes in evangelical country. these are areas ted cruz dominated donald trump. ron desantis has tried to make end roads in the same areas, meeting with the faith communities, hoping to separate donald trump off from the evangelical voters. will he be able to this time around? it's an open question. one fascinating county i want to watch. this right here. donald trump won clark county back in 2016. this is where the governor is from. the governor who endorsed ron desantis. is this going

but first a look at a unique way to get around here in downtown des moines. >> welcome to downtown des is the des moines skywalk system. it's about four-point to miles connecting 55 different buildings in all. when it is super cold and snowy outside this is the way to stay pretty warm. it connects the hotel to the iowa event bed center where we r town halls. however, for islands tomorrow night you've got to go outside to the school houses, the precincts devote tomorrow nigh. special report continues after this. you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana heal

jeff is in des moines indoors. very happy to be indoors i'm sure. how worry are a campaigns at the moment about turnout with the weather you're enduring? >> hey, manu. good morning. it is the central concern. first and foremost, it is outside of their control. for all of the planning,precise strategy, this is not in their hands and it is going to dramatically impact who turns out to the iowa caucuses tomorrow. this morning, desantis is canceling an event in sioux city. haley in debeaut. what is happening behind the scenes is really a furious scramble to ensure all of their supporters get out to the polls but some interesting numbers that you were just talking about inside the des moines register poll. the intensity is something that's a worry for haley supporters. she has some movement here in iowa as well as in new hampshire. but are her supporters as intense? yesterday, we went out with one of her top advocates who is going door to door in this bone chilling cold. drew klein is a veteran of iowa republican caucuses. he acknowledged the weather is

eastern from here in des moines >> bret: special report will also have a show this sunday from des moines slot 6:00 p.m. eastern, monday night election special democracy 24 the iowa caucuses 10:00 p.m. eastern some of our biggest names here in des moines along with fox reporters spread out all over the place. have a great evening from des moines i'm bret baier. >> i'm martha maccallum. good night from des moines iowa. gutfeld is next. ♪

take a look at the new "des moines register" poll. evangelical support, donald trump's at 51% among likely caucus goers with evangelical support, ron desantis at 22%. that's how much donald trump -- the inroads he's made with evangelical voters. wolf? >> thank you for that update. we're following all the final pitches of the republican candidates in this first big event for the 2024 white house.

let's begin with kate bolduan and sara sidner live in des moines right now. guys? >> the food here at the mars diner is drelicious. >> and you burn extra calories in the cold. >> wonderful. given the cold, there are things going for each of the candidates given the weather concerns. ron desantis has the biggest ground operation. that could be beneficial given bad weather. nikki haley, she is expected to do better in urban areas where you would assume that the roads are more clear, easier for people to turn out. donald trump has the most enthusiastic supporters. we've seen that in the latest polling, which makes it more interesting to see how this plays out tonight. >> you're hearing from different people who have endorsed nikki haley. we sat down with mr. gross and he said, we're a little concerned about the rural areas and people getting to the polling places, getting to the caucusing places, partly because the roads are a huge concern. they are so iced over in some places that people are not going to take a chance on their own safety in order to get out and do th

especially the capital of des moines.n talked to some des moines business community leaders about what it's like on the ground this election cycle. >> the impact goes way back. it starts early in the year when candidates start feeling their way around iowa and testing the waters. >> the closer we get, the more people coming into town. we have a lot of reporters and news crews. many people trying to get insight into how the city functions through the caucuses. >> we are a shared workspace. we have people who come here to work for the day or rent an event stuff. we have one meet and greet happening. >> we are at the convention of visitors bureau for the entire metro area. we estimate that just this week alone into the des moines metro area will bring in 4.2 million dollars. four years ago after the caucuses left, we did recalculations and it was a little over 11 million. the difference this year is a couple different things. >> the mood has been pretty subdued. go back four years, i probably have some photos on our company

negative 2 in des moines.have wind chills in excess from negative 20, negative 30, that's when it gets dangerous. your body cannot operate properly. heat escapes. out for any length of time risking frost bite and hypo thermia. get to the caucus safely keep warm and get home safely. wind chill alerts as far as south as texas where we had a winter storm this morning still going by the way for parts of the southern states. look at this. wind chills in houston, 14 degrees. 11 feels like in dallas. 7 in little rock. zero in nashville where they had snow. so this is another big story we are going to be covering. not only this evening but into tomorrow still seeing snow flying and icy mix here. quickly point out a tornado warn storm just south of the fort first area in florida and then the snow totals for arkansas, mississippi, tennessee. dealing with 6 inches plus here that's a huge story. then the storm system moves up to the northeast first measurable irsnow in 700 days, bret, over to to youing tonighe check in on

i am live in des moines at the river center not too far from the confluence of the des moines river andaccoon river right here in des moines where it's all going to get started. i'm going to be at the caucuses in 14 hours, lawrence. >> lawrence: i'm here at lucky's in cedar rapids. the folks are come in. they are getting through the weather. but they want their voices to be heard. >> we will be talking with folks all morning if you are in the local area and want the candidates to still earn your voted and want to let them know how you feel about the issues of today. come out to lucky's. we would love to have you. >> how cold is it there, guys. did you all bring boots and nice warm coats and gloves? >> steve: you have no idea. lawrence, i will start. it's pretty warm here at the river center. i'm wearing a vest. i'm wearing a wool sweater. i have got a shirt. i have got some lining under that as well. my wife bought me some boots. i don't know if you can see them. according to ll beaten i think they are good to 50 degrees below zero and today we need them because right now the current ai

is, dallas county, huge suburb outside of des moines.se are the kinds of places haley needs to put up big numbers tonight. >> of course, 8:00 eastern is when those caucuses get under way. you will be honing in on those counties as we get those realtime results after people give their secret ballot and results start coming in. thank you, steve kornacki. >>> the people of iowa are not just voting for presidential candidates, they're always remembering be loved principal dan marberger. after ten days in the hospital he died after a gunman opened fire in a small high school. he tried to calm down the shooter and, quote, distract him, so students could flee according to his daughter. a sixth grader was also killed in the initial shooting. when we're back in just 60 seconds, it's not just in iowa, bone-chilling weather slamming millions of americans. are you feeling it? we've got your forecast. how mlk day and 2024 are colliding for president biden in one swing state today. the big campaign haul his team just announced. >>> later, the u.s. sho

we have candidates in the des moines area tonight, former president trump in des moines. you have ron desantis, florida governor, also expected to make remarks in the city of des moines. nikki haley, former south carolina governor and ambassador to the united nations, she is giving remarks from west des moines and vivek ramaswamy in the city of des moines. we will bring you remarks when we get them in, when we see the candidates come to the podium. as we told you earlier indicates you have been switching around tonight you probably know the asciated press called this race for the former president precincts reporting.ery few it is now at 40% reporting this is where the n stands right now. they will changere reg comes in, but former president with a sizable lead, 53 point 3%. florida governor ron desantis right now in second place at 20% . nikki hast below him, two points shy at 18%nd vivek ramaswamy around 7.6%. those numbers will change. the associated press, cnn,er networks, they have called this race very early on tonight. as you also know, because part of the story out

she has passed ron desantis according to this des moines register poll. ron desantis at 16%, and rivek ramaswamy not much of a factor here at 8%. ron brownstein, donald trump -- there's a story line about nikki haley versus ron desantis and of course we can talk about that. but what jeff zeleny was talking about a few moments ago, this poll showing donald trump so far ahead, a former president now leading the republican party with all the legal questions hanging over him being cast as a threat to democracy by the sitting president, joe biden who defeated him, this is a significant poll. and if donald trump can replicate this on monday, that is a significant moment because it is really going to make him by and large the front-runner in this field and somebody who is on his way to perhaps crushing the competition and getting to the nomination. >> yeah, you know, jim, like haley and desantis themselves you can lose track of the big picture here by focusing solely on their comp titian for what will be a very distant second place. if haley does come in second

let's start in west des moines with jessica dean. seeing and hearing from the candidates as they speak to the voters hours before they are set to convene? >> reporter: they are giving their final pitch to voters. in talking to people who are involved with these campaigns, the big x factor is what you walked through, the weather. nobody really knows for sure exactly how that is going to impact turnout. when you are caucusing, you do not just go in and check a box any time, you arrive at a certain time, go in and participate. it requires tremendous organization on the part of the campaign and the voters. as someone said earlier today, what does this impact? this the weather impact geography in terms of rule voters? doesn't impact age? older voters are less inclined to get out of these types of temperatures? that is what people don't know. depending on how that impacts different voters, that could impact some of the results. we are looking at how strong will the former president be? he has had a commanding lead in the polls coming out o

slide back over to the river center in des moines.rful place, awesome to be here the last couple of days. dana perino is sitting patiently waiting for her partner for return. >> dana: i think you got it at the board. i don't think there is anything i would know that you don't know. people love it when you are at the board. >> bill: we have 15 hours. it would be interesting if you key on a lot of these counties throughout the day you will be able to say what about this and what about that? when it breaks tonight around 8:00 eastern time back in new york we'll see whether or not they match up the way we expect. >> dana: i look at youth vote to be curious. certainly evangelical. rural and suburban and i also think that it's important to look at this new voter. vivek ramaswamy grabbing a lot of that attention. >> bill: organization wins in iowa. >> dana: i'm organized. >> bill: that's true. >> voters are secure what was going on down there. not knowing who is coming across, why they are coming across and the drug trade and fentanyl. anybo

jeff zeleny joins us from des moines right now. jeff, i mean obviously this is all going to come down to turnout and which candidate is doing the best job of that at this point. but you know, the weather -- i wonder if it's a wild card. you covered so many of these. what do you think? >> reporter: it is definitely a wild card. i mean, for all of the advertising, for all of the messages, the campaign stops, they're all so strategic, this is something that the campaigns have zero control over. that is not where presidential candidates like to be, so it is absolutely the biggest wild card. i've been talking to advisers in all of the campaigns, and to a person that's what they say. there is just an unknown -- this is just an unknown factor. some of the supporters of these candidates are older, and that is a challenge perhaps to get them to the polls, to the caucus sites monday night. some of them have to drive long distances, that is a challenge to get them to the caucuses on monday night. so for all the spinning going on about, oh, it

live in des moines to kickoff team coverage.ill not good evening, this time tomorrow night i went from across the state will get ready to head out to cold temperatures go to the community and be in school gyms, libraries, chu churches, community centers with neighbors and make the pics for president. let's take a look at the latest. this came out last night, highly respected des moines register pulled the last big one before caucus day, donald trump still the clear frontrunner at 48%. the big move, nikki haley at number two. strong second place at 20% followed by desantis and vivek ramaswamy. today donald trump held a rally in iowa where he reacted to the rankings. >> somebody points, i don't have the same vast wealth. >> in the meantime ron desantis and nikki haley finding out for second place for weeks. they been attacking each other incessantly. what desantis says haley is too liberal. haley says desantis is dragging in the polls and can't be biden head-to-head. desantis points out he's got more endorsement that south carolin

we're just 30 miles north of des moines. this is a suburban area, an area where nikki haley is expected to do quite well with voters. so it's no surprise that she's here campaigning in the final day before the iowa caucuses. now, her team and she herself are of course welcoming that poll overnight from the des moines register and nbc that show her pulling ahead of ron desantis. they're taking nothing for granted, they say, but they of course are welcoming that news. one aspect of that poll, however, that's interesting as we look at the weather and how that could have an impact is that of the likely caucusgoers that were polled, those who are going for trump, they are extremely enthusiastic. 49% saying they're extremely enthusiastic. when it comes to nikki haley, her supporters. only 9% say they're extremely enthusiastic. nikki haley herself on fox news said she's not concerned about that. she's seen momentum at her events across the state. listen to what she said. >> i'm not a political pollster. i'm not going to worry about

but storey county as well north of des moines. des moines itself is in polk county right here. donald trump from the beginning has struggled in the suburbs. he beat hillary clinton in the general election in the suburbs. he got blown out by joe biden. so do we see? that's his vulnerability. that has been his kryptonite. suburban america has been trump's kryptonite. do we see tonight that it's still the case or do we see that he is at least starting to rebuild that? he has to win over independents, moderates, very soft republicans. when you get to pennsylvania, ohio, georgia, michigan, wisconsin. but do we see seeds of that tonight? that has been as i vulnerability. we'll. >> and tell us a lot for the general election as well. while polling does suggest that trump's nomination could be, and i'm putting all these emphasis on these words for a reason, the polls do suggest it could be a sure thing. his republican rivals have been out on the campaign trail all day today, arguing that trump is a deeply flawed candidate. here they are. >> we can't continue to be a country in disarray

bell melugin, in west des moines, iowa. we want to go to the former iowa governor and also the former u.s. ambassador to china. he is not committed to any of the candidates thus far. good to see you, governor, why not a commitment to any of the ones slugging it out right now in your state? >> first of all, they're all great candidates. you know, of course, we have a lot of respect, for donald trump and the job he did as president, he carried iowa twice and both governor desantis and former ambassador nikki haley have run strong campaigns and spent a lot of final in iowa. i think that iowans would support any one of them if they're the nominee, but obviously, trump has a huge lead here and i think there's a battle for second place between desantis and haley. neil: you know in conditions like these you've been a governor and know iowa quite well. and it's all about the supporters to go out and vote in that cold. is there any difference among the voters for these various candidates and polls or support who are more inclined to

live video from yesterday in des moines if a lot of snow out on the roads.are going to be talking about some dangerous conditions on the roads. and this is why. anywhere you see the purple is over a foot of snow on the ground we had two storms that went through this week and dropped a lot of snow for the second one behind it ushered in all of the really cold air that's where the problems are with us snow not going anywhere with the cold air. we are going to watch injury dangerous conditions on the road for this is what it feels like right now the state of iowa. forty-eight below zero is what it feels like right there in storm lake pretty g purdue get . i will so maybe one of the bright side today is worse than tomorrow. tomorrow we see a bit of an improvement. right now we have temperatures of minus 30's and my in his 40s, go throughout the night tonight another cool one but go to do tomorrow morning we are minus 27 is a feels like temperature des moines and by tomorrow night we are talking to temperatures ttemperatures thatn maybe minus 20's. i know it soun

it was des moines 62 at lincoln high school.cracy in action. watch. ♪ ♪ >> caucus will now come to order. steve the guy who runs precinct 62. everybody comes in pretty much with their mind made up, right? >> i would think so. >> jared, these are your neighbors. >> yep. >> why did you want to come and talk about ron desantis. >> i believe ron desantis is the man not just to lead the republican party with moral clarity but to win in november. that's why i'm supporting him. >> i was coming to vote anyways and just wanted to encourage people to consider an alternative to trump. >> steve: are you having fun, honey? can you say hi? >> yes. >> she said yes. she's got my vote. is this your first caucus? >> it is my first caucus. >> steve: and? >> i was very pleased with the experience. >> steve: do you want to tell us what you were think about for a candidate? >> i'm going -- i mean my pin, i can't hide it. i'm a trump girl. >> steve: i think you are in the majority here. >> i would agree. i would agree with you. >> so vote donald j. tr

look at the des moines re . ister that? look at the des moines register poll _ that?and _ that? look at the des moines register poll and read - that? look at the des moines register poll and read the - register poll and read the narrative. in the narrative, they say trump probably won't get as high as 48%. nikki's voters aren't all that enthused, a lot of them are democrats or independents. however the polls also show the desantis people are showing up with enthusiasm. so when you add those factors in, i think you could be a really good night for governor desantis. politics is about expectations. the former president says he'll dominate iowa 50—60%, governor chris sununu tells us nikki haley will take second place — i think the one that could actually beat expectations is ron desantis.— actually beat expectations is ron desantis. he's planned to fl out to ron desantis. he's planned to fly out to south _ ron desantis. he's planned to fly out to south carolina - fly out to south carolina tomorrow morning on his way to new hampshire, but it's not his next stop, though it

nikki haley today in the more suburban areas of des moines, campaigning.ill it benefit, this cold weather, in terms of turnout? >> interesting to see because there is an argument isn't there, christian, that donald trump supporters will think, he is going to win anyway, so what's the point of turning out? but his supporters are some of the most loyal backers. we have seen them whether any situation to go out and support him, lining up in larne queues, even staying overnight to attend his rallies. there is an argument it could benefit nikki haley. a lot of her supporters tend to be in the more cosmopolitan areas of iowa, so roads are clear, the caucus sites are nearer, or it could benefit ron desantis. he has made a splash with the evangelical community here, sizable community, and they are seen as dedicated caucus-goers. there are others in the race, vivek ramaswamy, asa hutchinson, very much seen as outsiders to the other three. it is really hard to predict at this stage to the weather will benefit or won't. christian: thank you very much for that. a part

new polling from the des moines register shows her head of governor desantis. the polling also shows some of the significant and how enthusiastic his supporters said they were. 88% they are extremely or very enthusiastic compared to 62% to 39% for desantis and nikki haley respectively. we will go first to a town in the south of des moines >> donald trump and his only event of the weekend three of four of its counsel because of the weather. he spoke for nearly 2 hours and he had a very long and multilayered message. one was airing of grievances and two was attacking nikki haley and three was stressing how important it is to show up on caucus on monday. listen to some of what he chose said. >> if you want to save america from cricket joe biden, you must caucus tomorrow. you cannot sit home. if you are sick as a dog, even if you vote and did not pass away, it's worth it. if you are so sick, get up. you get up and you vote. yes, darling. because we know who ultimately calls the shots, right? >> anderson, one thing to note is that trump is joking there. however, he

congressional correspondent aisha is alive and des moines with more. >> good evening to you yes she isoping to build on that momentum. she is actually headed to davenport, iowa right now she was in a couple other cities earlier today including cedar falls this morning. and joined by congressman ashley henson in iowa city who by the way has not endorsed anyone yet. she will actually with governor desantis tomorrow she's out there trying to get islands to come out in caucus. now, after replacing all of her in person events yesterday because of the weather to telephone town halls i'm told the campaign still reached more than 1000 caucus goers through this tele- town halls that called a big success they do not feel it fate lost any time reaching out to voters but today she is finally getting the face-to-face interaction again. >> what should send a chill up your spine is we cannot afford a president harris. and we can go through another nailbiter of an election and take that chance. >> haley says this is now a two-person race between her and former president trump. she is searching in iowa

"outfront" live in des moines. so, jeff, it's freezing, and it can be very dangerous in many places where people may have to caucus. where does the race stand tonight? >> erin, it's actually below freezing. and the winds are the far bigger concern here. that is why all of the campaigns have their eye on the weather forecast, and even more than that, the specific road conditions. have all these roads been plowed? will they blow over again with all the snow coming here this past week? but because of all of that, all the campaigns, of course, have intense strategies. they know where their supporters are. now the challenge is to get them out to the caucus sites tomorrow evening. erin, across all of this, the biggest picture, can the iowa caucuses be a roadblock for donald trump or a glide path to his nomination. >> brave the weather and go out and save america. because that's what you're doing. >> reporter: donald trump is eyeing a knockout victory in iowa, hoping the first contest sets him on a rocket ride to the repu

des moines' snoweiest since 194. tonight, donald trump canceled both his in-person rallies shift to be a virtual town hall beginning in the next hour. his republican rivals have been mocking him for relying on maga surrogates just days before the iowa caucuses. >>. >> we're showing up. donald trump i guess has phoned it in. he's just going to be hanging out down in mar-a-lago. i'm sure it's probably 75 degrees there. >> monday is set to be the coldest iowa caucus in history, leading the candidates to down play expectations. yesterday, the trump campaign argued that while weather may affect turnout, a win is still a win. he has a commanding lead in the polls and is arguing severe weather will play to his advantage. >> your night's going to be pretty cold next week and night and day, eight days. so you just have to put on that warm coat and get out there. i said it to one of our people and they said oh, that's good news. i said why is it good? because their people don't have the enthusiasm to vote and my people will wa

we start with garrett haake outside des moines and priscilla thompson. so, garrett, 50% would be a major victory for donald trump. will the win be as big as the polls are suggesting? >> well, it looks that way, andrea, and good afternoon from an as yet empty bar that will later today be the site of a donald trump jr. event as they try to capture the enthusiasm you see at trump events across the state and events. you're seeing a margin that would give donald trump twice the record of any other republican caucus vigtry. in and of itself, a huge achievement. i think there's an open question of whether he could hit 50%. the idea that you know, crossing to a majority threshold in a contested primary would be a huge mark. his team has been trying to lower expectations suggesting that they don't think that's possible. now, as i've been out across the state over the last week or so, especially in these sub zero temperatures, you see hundreds if not thousands of people showing up for some of these trump events. that's the enthusiasm captured in this poll where he

now he's down to des moines, iowa. and b.j. started to leave, got halfway through the door, and then turned back and over his shoulders at ed, there's only one des moines, and it's in iowa. they. from then on, we knew the station break would be w.h.o. des moines when coming election. the political rhetoric is going to be pretty thick. you've had about a year of it already. our biggest challenge as republicans is to focus public attention on what is behind the words and promises and not get lost in the excess words. the candidates and the other party have already laid out a strategy of promising everything to everybody. you've got a gang of them swimming all over the state. in the past few weeks. they've got so many candidates vying for votes in today's caucuses that they there haven't been enough promises to go round and in. yes, we republicans make promises, but not to special interest groups to be paid from the public treasury and not promises that cancel each other out. because if you keep one promise to one group, you will

we go to des moines. eva, besides giving us the forecast there, i mean, how are these candidates adjusting their schedules? i mean, we're talking about potentially dangerous weather and conditions to get out there, crisscrossing every county in the state. >> reporter: fred, it is a little cold, a little windy. the snow is falling, but i have to tell you, the iowans that i speak to, they are still very determined to turn out and participate in the caucus monday. they take their role as the first in the nation very seriously. they say that past winter weather has not deterred them, and these conditions won't deter them either. governor desantis, nikki haley back on the trail today after being stymied earlier this week by these conditions. the blizzard-like conditions have made for impassable roads, so even if they were to hold their events, it's very difficult for iowans to be able to traverse these roads and physically get there. although donald trump, the former president, enters the caucus as the clear f

cnn's eva mckend is in des moines. hello.e want to know how the weather is affecting the candidates, their strategy for tomorrow night and what are they saying? >> reporter: well, good morning to you both. to give you a sense of the conditions out on the roads, my car got stuck and i almost wasn't able to make it here this morning. so glad to be here. negative 20 degrees certainly an experience. it is bitterly cold outside, to the best of their abilities they are still trying to get out there and speak to iowans, convince them to caucus for them on monday evening. caucus, a very involved in-person process. and they're acknowledging to iowans that it is a big ask. but the iowans that i speak to, they are showing great resolve, many of them saying that they are still going to come out and battle these bitter temperatures. all of the campaigns planning to be out there today. take a listen to how they're talking about this weather out on the trail. >> i just landed in an airplane and it's nasty out there. i worry about that, but

specifically in the area that sort of makes a doughnut around des moines. and that's because her focus here in iowa is really going to be to gin up turnout in the suburban areas outside of the population centers that you and i spent so much time in in 2016, places like iowa city and davenport, and certainly des moines. if you look back to 2016 when we were all out here, the counties that marco rubio had done pretty well in, those are the places that nikki haley is likely to be focusing her energy and where her campaign, according to my conversations with them is going to be focusing when results start coming in tonight. at the same time, though, she's urging her voters this morning, please get out and vote. don't let me surging into second place make you rest on your laurels some how. watch. >> i mean, he's only played in iowa. he's invisible in new hampshire. he's invisible in south carolina. he's fourth and fifth place in both of those. i mean, i welcome him to south carolina, but we're headed to new hampshire. that's the next state that votes. somebody m

"des moines register" since 2000? >> 2000. >> it is a small state that can make a massive impact on the political world. up next, why this iowa caucus day will be like -- night, i should say, like no other. stay with us. to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. >>> just a few hours to go until i republicans meet to cast the first votes of this presidential contest. some argue that republicans and the primary itself has been frozen in place. do you see what i did there? since it essentially began. joining me now is ron brownstein. take this whole thing up to 30,000 feet for us. we've been talking about the granular de

suburbs to the west of des moines. see it's about two and a half points for desantis over nikki haley. that's the kind of performance he wants in a county like dallas. a lot of suburbs. they are building an apple planned out there. there's a lot of growth right there on the west side of des moines, iowa. this is story county. they are counting slow, that or they've got a big caucus and they will give us a big dump at some point tonight. but they only have 7% of the vote reporting. and nikki haley, based on that, has a comfortable 14 to 15-point lead. we see story county, iowa state, ames, iowa. we'll see how that goes throughout the night. pop over here to johnson county, the population ranked 4 of 99. a lot of folks live there. university of iowa. look at the contest, the haley campaign has to like this. this was a target area for them. she's got a 13 to 14-point lead over ron desantis. vote reporting just shy of 90%. pop up here to cedar rapids, this is linn county. the second most populated city in the state of iowa

nbc's dasha burns joins us from des moines as well. tell me about these questions that voters have for ron desantis? >> reporter: i'm at the vivek ramaswamy headquarters, we'll talk about his campaign in a moment. here's the problem for florida governor ron desantis, because he staked so much on iowa, he's gotten the endorsement of the iowa governor, the endorsement of bob vander plaats, he has moved his campaign staff. because of all of that, if he does not have a strong showing in iowa, if he doesn't come in at least second and a strong second at that, that is going to make the argument for moving forward extremely difficult for his campaign. so the possibility that he might not come in second, that he could potentially come in third. some people are wondering if that could happen is a big problem for him. and take a listen to what he's saying about some of those rumors and some of those questions. >> anybody saying somehow, like, we're only doing that, that's just a flat out lie. you know, you have to be built for the long haul. we'

here's the des moines area. that's the biggest area. the suburbs around it -- those are key to nikki haley by the way. if nikki haley is going to surprise us, it's going to come from the suburbs and close around the cities like dubuque, like iowa city. those people don't have to drive as far. small rural counties, some people have to drive 15, 20, maybe more miles to get to their caucus site. do they do that in the snow? that is where organization will matter. as you noted, that's also where enthusiasm matters. look, i don't need to tell the two of you, kaitlan collins and abby phillip, a lot of time covering trump, lite of time at trump rallies, his people tend to be locked in. are you extremely or enthusiastic about your candidate. 88% of trump supporter, 62% of desantis supporters, only 39% for nikki haley. she has more independents, first-time caucus goers. that is has always been trump's trump card -- forgive the pun -- his people tend to be locked in. we'll see if that works on a very, very, very cold night tomorrow. >> john king,

according to a des moines register nbc news poll.wa poll which has a storied history of capturing the final movements in this race shows that donald trump is at 48% in the poll. the race for second place is a fascinating one with nikki haley edging out florida governor ron desantis just narrowly. nikki haley has 20% in the poll, followed by desantis at 16. the rest of the field is far below, vivek ramaswamy 8%, the rest goes down from there. but it is the top of the field showing that donald trump still has an overwhelming commanding lead of this race. his supporters are the most committed. the reason some of this matters of course is weather has been a central concern here, blizzard warnings and dangerously cold weather, those committed supporters may be the answer to who shows up at the caucuses here on monday night in iowa. haley clearly is riding a wave of momentum. although the poll finds that her supporters are not as committed or enthusiastic as others. it also shows some 68% of people have made up their minds. a quarter of io