on my immediate right, desmond lachman. he served as managing director and chief emerging markets strategist at salomon, smith barney. prior to that he was deputy director in the imf, in the policy review development department, and has written extensively on the global economy, u.s. housing market, u.s. dollar. his work at the american enterprise institute is focused on global currency issues. on my far right is hans timmer who is director of the world bank's development prospects were. under his management they produce the annual publications, global prospects, developing finance, and motrin reports. in addition there is a wide range of forecasting publications that come from the world bank under his supervision. you see we have a panel of heavy hitters on the panel for this seminar. the procedure is slightly different than normal. there will be no lengthy presentations or slides. instead i will ask five different questions. i will ask each of three of the panelists to address each question. they do not know ahead of time

on my immediate right, desmond lachman. he served as managing director and chief emerging markets strategist at salomon, smith barney. prior to that he was deputy director in the imf, in the policy review development department, and has written extensively on the global economy, u.s. housing market, u.s. dollar. his work at the american enterprise institute is focused on global currency issues. on my far right is hans timmer who is director of the world bank's development prospects were. under his management they produce the annual publications, global prospects, developing finance, and motrin reports. in addition there is a wide range of forecasting publications that come from the world bank under his supervision. you see we have a panel of heavy hitters on the panel for this seminar. the procedure is slightly different than normal. there will be no lengthy presentations or slides. instead i will ask five different questions. i will ask each of three of the panelists to address each question. they do not know ahead of time

on my immediate right is desmond lachman, currently the institute after we serve as managing your andonomic achieving market economic strategist for salomon smith. he was also hired to that deputy director of the imf in a policy developing and review department anti-has written extensively on the global economy, the u.s. housing market, the u.s. dollar, strains in the market and his work at the enterprise is focused on global macroeconomic and global currency issues. on my far right is hans timmer. hans timmer is director of the developing prospect groups. under his management the group produces the world bank's annual publications, global economic prospects, global finance and global monitoring report. in addition, there is a wide range of forecasting publications that come out of the world bank under his supervision. so you see we have a panel of heavy hitters on the subject matter for this seminar. the procedure for this seminar is slightly different than normal. there will be no sort of lengthy presentations for slides. this is customary. instead, i will ask five different questio

the first person to whom i would like to address is desmond lachman. >> thank you, peter. i just noticed in the question that you have left out of letters like w. and square roots signs. [laughter] leaving aside the current -- i'm very much in the camp of people like janet and paul krugman and marty bell steen, expect a recovery to be extremely subdued. and i can be talking about this at the u.s. level and at the global level. i would be rather concerned in policy-making circles it i saw with the massive stimulus we've had a in places in the u.s. economy and fiscal stimulus that's unprecedented in monetary ease that we only managed to reach 2.2% growth in the third quarter of the year purpose some of the big questions are arising, what happens when the fiscal stimulus fades as was costing less will certainly fade and the second half of 2010. and the real risk that we do get a double-dip recession as that paid. of the reason i say that is there are extraordinarily strong headwinds against u.s. economic recovery right now. now the most notable of those headwinds is the situa