jonathon: i put that deutsche bank quote on twitter. can you imagine the amount of pushback that i got, tons of it. lisa: they are not alone because the ecb is facing inflation that is frankly the fastest pace that they have seen in decades and they are seeing this crimping growth. how do they respond to that? it seems hard to imagine at this point. jonathon: that is the main focus of this program, what does it mean for your market. team coverage on ukraine starts right now. let us start with you, these sanctions efforts, where are we this morning? maria: well, we are about to get an official approval to this package that will be put forward by the end of the day today from the european union. we know what is in it, coal is the takeaway measure from this. it will be banned, exports from russia going into the european union. buyers have three months to wind down, tax -- contracts and they will not be able to buy more. that is about 10 billion dollars of exports going to russia will be blocked. it is designed to increase the pain on russi

commerzbank and deutsche bank are proving a drag, deutsche bank down 10.5%.bank down 8.7% on the back of the news that an undisclosed holder is looking to sell down significant stakes in both of those german lenders. that is bringing the whole banking sector lower in europe. concern about whether the momentum after the pandemic can be sustained. let's get back to what is happening in the u.k., the demand picture and the strength of the u.k. consumer and the jobless rate. the u.k. unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3%, the lowest since before the pandemic. u.k. retailers warned inflation is curbing consumer demand. the british retail consortium says 3.1% sales growth in march was driven by rising prices not volumes. stewart robertson, senior economist, aviva investors global services is still with us. we have the strength of the labor market but real wages are falling in the u.k., and then the warning from the retail association. what is your level of concern about growth and u.k.? stewart: there are significant downdrafts, high inflation is leading to a huge c

deutsche bank was really aggressive to the fed.y went further in the report saying how the last 40 years has failed, hasn't done its job in these type of sessions. in my view deutsche bank was also saying the recession was going to be minor. really, this report is really strictly focusing on the fed's ability to not control inflation. they believe, and they're putting in the report, that they won't be able to get it under control. i also think there's other factors in play here, not just inflation, but also the global economy and the labor rate. there is obviously more at play with this. this is more about the lack of trust that the bank has for the federal reserve. >> so, if deutsche bank is sending a direct warning to the federal reserve to change course immediately in the way it responds to high inflation with these aggressive rate hikes, how likely is it that the fed will listen and ease off to perhaps calm global market nerves? >> well, i'm hoping the fed will understand. i think they do, but they need a balance, like, i think

that was a i feel her something very visionary of m deutsch. avella. as far as i know, something of the skills as i was his kind of historical had never really been done with so much visual or interviews and discussions about the composer. and until today, i haven't really seen any if, but thing so ambitious as, as, as huge project. that even as you recall, some animation sectors were involved really free thinking very, a imaginative m explorations. the feeling within the orchestra was that this was an opportunity to explore at this time, new technology to try to reach millions of people and throughout the entire world. and that was what made the orchestra so excited about the project as, let's try to play for the international her audience, the international public that we can reach through too much of a classical masterpieces showcased 6 important symphonies by 6 master composers. one was johan asked, but arms symphony number 4 ah ah ah with 4th is symphony. i do have a personal relationship with it. now the piece to me seems like an unusually strong

deutsche bank down by .2%.e chemical sector, up by tony percent today, business standard investment, the chemical -- in europe is bubbling along considering what is happening with the gas story. a tv star, all of that business, moreover the ev space up by 5.3 percent today. just one of a number of european stocks that has a fairly positive story to tell but it is the macro narrative, the overarching umbrella of the macro news generally pushing european stocks lower. our individual names doing well. novo n isordisk kailey: shares down about 5.5%. there is growing concern that demand for personal computers is down. joining us now is the intel ceo and emily chang. over to you. emily: pat, thank you for joining us. we did see a number of chip names go down on the back of your report and investors are not excited about the forecast for the first -- for the quarter but your sticking to the forecast for the year and i'm curious what gives you that sense of optimism about the second half of the year, given what you are

that was a, i feel for something very visionary, even deutsch avella, as far as i know something of the skills, as i was his kind of historical had never really been done with so much visual or interviews and discussions about the composer. and until today, i haven't really seen anything but thing so ambitious as, as, as huge project. that even as you recall, some animation sectors were involved really free thinking very, a imaginative m explorations. the feeling within the orchestra was that this was an opportunity to explore at this time, new technology to try to reach millions of people and throughout the entire world. and that was what made the orchestra so excited about the project as, let's try to play for the international her audience, the international public that we can reach through too much of a classical masterpieces showcased 6 important symphonies by 6 master composers. one was johan is but arms at symphony number 4. ah ah ah. mm hm. with 4th is symphony. i do have a personal relationship with it. now the piece to me seems like an unusually strong statement of the future.

joining us now, the host of the podcast, "on brand with donny deutsch," donny deutsch. >> donny!the big one. joe biden -- >> biden brand is down. the reason -- here's why. the numbers, the nbc poll says they're at 45, 55% underwater. because the messaging is right. if you look at the economy, where it's 3.6% employment, when you look at what east done with ukraine, with the coalition, the good news is not sticking to him. it doesn't stick, so there's something wrong with the message. his job is up, but the brand is done. trump brand down, no surprise. all you need to know, look at the gridiron speech that chris sununu, who basically is a 70% approval rating, governor of a purple state, coming out and saying he's effing crazy, and he said, i'm not saying he belongs in a mental institution, but if he ever went in, he's not coming out. that kind of thing, plus what's going on in georgia, kemp, 9% ahead perdue, who is the trump reflection, all you need to know is his brand. not only is it a purple state, it's the most important primary state. >> a lot will say he cost them that state

what impact would this have on deutsche bank?are economists have been on the leading edge of considering inflation to be more persistent, arguing the central bank actions would need to go beyond what markets expectations were to really impact inflation as they would like to. and of course they made a recession call a while back and reemphasize that with some work they published yesterday. for the european economy there is no question that is an overhang. the price insufficiency of energy into the european economy is something that has come under question. there are efforts underway to say no, to find other sources. we need to re-factor the economy and our industrial base in some senses around the energy supplies we have, and of course the transition to a green economy. so there is that uncertainty. i think the event yesterday essentially crystallized that uncertainty to some degree. we will see what the future holds now in terms of continued gas supplies to europe. annmarie: -- how much of that is reflected in your 290 million eu

deutsch. what's unique about your shops? well, we actually have about a hundred thousand volumes on the shelf, which is interesting, but we also have almost exclusively academic scholarly and literary books, but what's more interesting is what we don't have which is a gift sidelines non-book items coffee wine sorts of things that most book stores today use to make their bookstores pork. so can you buy a best seller at seminary? you certainly can if the community is interested in the best seller than we'll certainly have it on the shelf, but we only really carry the books that the community is interested in. so we are reflecting that community as well and there are plenty of bestsellers that do make make it on to our shelves. so what are some of the popular titles at seminary? well, it's interesting because the titles themselves don't sell all that quickly so we might have occasionally a book that will that will sell quickly and sell well, but most of the books that we carry our books that sit on the shelves for a long time.

i had that in a fashion to shaquilla boulevard to us you won't be, she figure will deutsch refreshes. most villains on our end to you. the ash dark, awful deschutes warden. austin, was our finance yet. yeah. father hut, hitler. although the heater from not shown i went into nostrand, uncomfy thought in his books, bent on let. so a history professor gives a thorough analysis of the reasons that brought germany to wall. i'm di, changes state plan. did i cherish to san jose 3 border? oh, fca, about mid paid for that. i'm a karnicia, one aboard, a lot of elements in britain and france and the united states were pro fascist sympathetic. that hip learned to miscellaneous american business was in bed with with the nazis throughout most of the thirty's and into the early forty's. mm. the standard oil company, cent crude, oil to the germans on a monthly basis and collaborated with. i g far been the conglomerate that produced as i can be gas used against people sent in to the gas chambers. me about half of their market vehicles. what produced by opal, which was owned by the american company, ge

will deutsch refreshes most in valence. i not inch to you. the ash dark, awful, distressed warden. austin was our finance yet yeah. father hut, hitler, although the heater from not shown i went into a nicer an uncomfy thought in his books bent on let. so a history professor gives a thorough analysis of the reasons that brought germany to war a die chain or stay planted or cherished to san jose. 3 border o fca bough it mit paid for that i'm a con issue one aboard a lot of elements in britain and france and the united states were pro fascist sympathetic to hitler and mussolini american business was in bed with the nazis throughout most of the thirty's and into the early forty's. mm. the standard oil company, cent crude oil to the germans on a monthly basis. and collaborated with. i g far been the conglomerate that produced as i clone. b gas used against people sent in to the gas chambers with about half of their market vehicles. what produced by football, which was owned by the american company, general motors before 1944 supplied the german ar

this is dusty deutsch. none the best front in the bed threatened in minnesota, dan creek in england or america that certainly i am bandon shook life, threatening to dodge and albert and creaking. rutland, dave forbidden, and grandson, daughter vita our phone politician. disease is a ferrari. m morales and positioning is from the gun nieces breaking ended march 19. 45 in britain, and the u. s. enter into secret negotiations with germany to negotiate the surrender of german forces in northern italy. dissolve it on the smithy. common natalie. i'm darkish that day to name and it's with al bob kelly and the best master. for less dammit, no for ended as creek is europe prestone kicking me with as of italian. i'll either, if in middle of it or not along our lead or for i'm because i didn't find in his letter to president roosevelt, it openly accuses the allies of negotiating a separate piece with jelly. already on his deathbed, roosevelt writes back saying, you have been misinformed, starting responds with laura f

the one that i gave this is dusty deutsch under restaurant in the bed preferences, minnesota think creek in england or america that certainly i'm banded july, 3rd, dodge, now with a creaking. rutland, dave forbidden and grandson, daughter vita our phone politician. disease. crooked is i'm for art or more, i listen. positioning is from the gun news just breaking ended march 19. 45 britain of the u. s. enter into secret negotiations with germany to negotiate the surrender of german forces in northern italy. dissolve it on the smithy, common natalie. i'm dr. state de 2 name is with al bob kelly and the best master for less dammit, no for ended as cuz you're a priest, owen, can it with as of italian. i'll either, if in middle of it or not a lead over, i'm because i didn't find in his letter to president roosevelt, it openly accuses the allies of negotiating a separate piece with jelly. already on his deathbed, roosevelt writes back saying, you have been misinformed. stone responds with laura foreman, so humble and honest people. judging position is more aggressive from he approaches the u. s

that will be the sheet figure will deutsche of russia's most villains. i know. and to you they are stark of understood. st. warden. austin was our finance. yet father hut. hitler. although the hitter from natur now went internet and uncovered in his books bent on let. so a history professor gives a thorough analysis of the reasons that brought germany to war. mm. mm. did i change or state plan? did i cherish to san jose 3 border? oh fca, about mid paid for the i'm a karnicia warner. paula a lot of elements in britain and france and i, the states were pro fascist sympathetic of hip learned from the saline. american business was in bed with the nazis throughout most of the thirty's and into the early forty's. ah, the standard oil company, st. crude oil to the germans on a monthly basis. and collaborated with. i g far been the conglomerate that produced as like lawn b gas used against people sent in to the gas chambers. mm. about half of their market vehicles were produced by football, which was owned by the american company, general motors before $940.00. ford sup

the one dash i gave him is ist dusty. deutsche none the best front in the bed threatened the minnesota think creek in england or america that certainly i am bandon shook life, threatening to dodge now with a creaking. rutland, dave forbidden and grandson daughter via our phone poly different disease is i'm for art for more i listen, positioning is from the gone. mr. praken ended march 1945 in britain and the u. s. enter into secret negotiations with germany to negotiate the surrender of german forces in northern italy. is of a don't at the smithy. common natalie. i'm dr. state di to name and it's with al bob kelly and the best master. for less dammit, no for ended as cuz you're a priest, owen, can me with as of italian. i've a leader in me. those are that are not long. i li, it over. i'm because i didn't find in his letter to president roosevelt, it openly accuses the allies of negotiating a separate piece with jelly. already on his deathbed, roosevelt writes back saying, you have been misinformed, starting responds with current form and so humble and honest people. judges position is

the deutsche bank note is phenomenal. big shout out to valerie who grabbed it. 3.3%. i'm going to be working forever. dani: we want you to work forever. manus: this scale in velocity -- no. no. you don't want me to work forever. we want to whiz through the cross asset check. there's a bond -- not tantrum. there's a repricing at the moment. repricing which is tolerable. the highest rates since 2015 in the short end of the curve. i've been criticized already for calling it a volker style shock. it's a narrative. not necessarily fist -- 50 basis points but it's the narrative that is this volcker style shock. my max is flat at the moment as the eu didn't go out to the jugular from oil. dollar-yen is at a seven year low. policy divergence puts more pressure on the yen. dani: there you go. as the bond market tries to digest what a big runoff on the balance sheet will mean, so too is the equity market. has the equity market been too complacent? we saw selloffs yesterday. we don't know what the size will be. we are trying to pry something and. continuing to see at selloff --

that is the view for deutsche bank. we will catch up with matt luz zetti of deutsche bank. first quarter gdp and initial jobless claims and a read of pce and personal consumption. mike mckee mckee of bloomberg joining us very shortly. yields higher by three or four basis points. euro-dollar -0.6%, and dollar-yen to the moon. this is bloomberg. ♪ what's it like having xfinity internet? it's beyond gig-speed fast. so gaming with your niece, has never felt more intense. hey what does this button do? no, don't! we're talking supersonic wi-fi. three times the bandwidth and the power to connect hundreds of devices at once. that's powerful. couldn't said it better myself. you just did. unbeatable internet from xfinity. made to do anything so you can do anything. whoa. >> live from new york city, here is the price action on the s&p, up more than 1%, on the nasdaq up 1.7. decent numbers from facebook. later on this afternoon we will hear from amazon and apple. economic data crossing the bloomberg which means we catch up with michael mckee. michael: bloomberg's economics call the fir

deutsche bank becomes the first big bank to forecast the recession next year. set to warn about enormous repercussions. and piling on penalties. western allies with a fresh round of sanctions. energy remains the question mark. alix steel is off today. welcome to bloomberg markets. guy: i know our question of the day. will the minutes move the market is the question that we ultimately came up with. but i really struggle with the idea that anything is going to be more hawkish than that. >> they seem to be more and more hawkish, but a lot has been priced into the market already. bully get anything that takes it further is the question. >> mike mckee is usually having a conversation with policymakers. let's get some market perspective on this. reynard was super hawkish. the whole conversation today is more about what is happening and the impact that will have. nevertheless, very hawkish message. are the minutes going to be any more hawkish or is that cat already out of the bag? >> we pretty much know what the fed is wanting to do in terms of rate. we have an idea o

donny deutsch will explain next. when tired, achy feet make your whole body want to stop, it's dr.ing gel waves, for all-day comfort and energy. find your relief in store or online. where do you find the perfect developer? well, we found her in prague between the ideal cup of coffee and a truly impressive synthesizer collection. ...but you can find her right now on upwork. better. when the world is your workforce finding the perfect developer, designer, marketer, or whomever you may need, tends to fall right into place. find top-rated talent who can start today on upwork. - [narrator] every three minutes, a child is born with a cleft condition. without surgery, some will die. those who do survive face extreme challenges. operation smile works to heal children born with cleft conditions. we need you. there are still millions in dire need of healing. go to operationsmile.org today and become a monthly supporter, or call. (gentle music) >>> all right. the kids have spoken. back my popular demand, our new segment "brand up, brand down" with donny deutsch. >> why don't we start with --

let me read you a key line from the deutsche bank report.f prolonged inflation is to err on the side of doing too much. the good news, most economists do not see a recession. goldman sachs, for example, think that a mere slowdown of the economy could be enough to tame inadmiflation but the trut no one knows how it will play out. not even the federal reserve i.t. but we do see more signs of nervousness on wall street. a half hour ago, the dow up 350 points or so. 1%. now it's down 75 points. this is after a series of wild swings we've seen in just the last few days. yesterday, the dow was down 800 points. about 2.5%. last friday, we saw a sharp decline. i think this speaks to the uncertainty here, and a realization that risks are rising around the economy. hopefully, the fed can thread the needle here. get inflation under control without short circuiting this recovery. we'll see. >> markets reacting to earnings reports. the news out of russia cutting off the oil and gas prices. spiking a lot of volatility out there. >> a lot of uncertainty. >

frank, i had that in a fresh official call up over to us get when she figure deutsche of russia's most vehemence. i not c o z as stark of understood swan oust in was our finance yet the father had hitler. although the heater from not shown i went into nostrand, uncovered in his books, bent on let. so a history professor gives a thorough analysis of the reasons that brought germany to wal mm. he died chained or stay planted. archer has to send us 3 border o fca bow it mit paid for the i'm a karnicia warner. puerto lot of elements in britain and france and the united states were pro fascist sympathetic with hitler and mussolini american business was in bed with the nazis throughout most of the thirty's and into the early forty's. ah, the standard oil companies sent crude oil to the germans on a monthly basis and collaborated with. i g far been the conglomerate that produced as i clone. b gas used against people sent in to the gas chambers about half of their market vehicles. what produced by football, which was owned by the american company, general motors before 944 supplied the german

i'm an golf from deutsch front door to want brandy's of it on your knees, pushed him to mos mcduffton heter some type point don via designed for far less ish t v isn't oh, the magnum folk gave me. well then, i guess he wagner and england stayed on dark guns. army no field is what? well known american also dean henderson thinks of past events. poland and hungary invaded czechoslovakia before hitler invaded poland because poland and hungary work and already with the nazis and france in england basically through chuckles havoc yonder, the bus. and they don't really want us to remember that part you see, but they just and then them again, if had been for stalin coming on the eastern front, they would abandon a lot more people in eastern europe as well. mm hm. however, on september the 19th 2019, the european parliament adopted a resolution stating that it was germany in the u. s. i saw that paved the way for world war 2800 mark. think it doesn't offer that interesting colorado us in biological mando house, poor in the guns stock lobbyist most the time i listened, extreme nuts analysis cuf

as fox lod us, i'm, i'm an golf from deutsche front door to want brandy's of it on eunice pushed him to moss. now mcduffton heter susan type pawn, done via her design for far less ish tv isn't oh, the magnet folks gave me. well then, and i guess he wagner and england stayed on the arkansas amino field, is what? well known american author, dean henderson thinks of past events. poland and hungary invaded czechoslovakia before hitler invaded poland because poland and hungary work and already with the nazis and france in england basically threw czechoslovakia under the bus. and they don't really want us to remember that part you see, but they just abandon them and. and again, if hadn't been for stolen coming on the eastern front, they would abandon a lot more people in eastern europe as well. mm hm. however, on september the 19th 2019, the european parliament adopted a resolution stating that it was germany in the u. s. i saw that paved the way for world war 2. a one just mocked. think it doesn't die. intestinal open, garad awesome bicycle. mando house poor in the guns stock thought lobb

understand , dear friends, so now famous ukrainian farmers are going out to sow the material of deutsche, let's look at the work there. yuriy is wearing a bulletproof vest, so you see, i can't see the text very well. so you can't read it, well, you understand what these are farmers, this farmer is going, they are going, and to be working nearby, find ukraine and began to put on a bulletproof vest, paint for safety , it was scary, of course, it flew to the neighbors, broke fences there, blew down fences, everything, well, i don’t know, these are my words, the transmission of betrayals, they flew in, lost pipes, such that they were then pulled out rockets were pulled out with a tractor, and these, well, thank god that we were not in the fields, at the moment we have very close combat operations here, so it is very scary and even scary, this is my bomb shelter, at the moment i have everything covered there is nothing here, but there is a door, if there is a collapse, at least you support it, or cover your head, or of course, pray that they don't get killed, i won't leave here, as this is my

you won't be ve sheet figure will deutsche of rushes most villains on our end to u. z. our stark awful districts warden. austin was our finance yet yeah. father hut. hitler. although the heater from not shown i went into nostrand, uncovered thought in his books bent on let. so a history professor gives a thorough analysis of the reasons that brought germany to war. he died chained or stay planted. archer has to send us the border o fca about mid paid for that. i'm a con issue on a border. lot of elements in britain and france and the united states were pro fascist sympathetic. that hitler and mussolini american business was in bed with the nazis throughout most of the thirty's and into the early forty's. mm. the standard oil company sent crude oil to the germans on a monthly basis and collaborated with. i g far been the conglomerate that produced as i can be gas used against people sent in to the gas chambers about half of their market vehicles. what produced by total, which was owned by the american company, general motors before $940.00 ford supplied the german army w

i understand listen, you know my view on deutsch one of the it powder cake waiting to happen but the form of citi bank, they're one-stepped removed what's going on with deutsche or commerce and capitalize -- when people pair down bank exposure in this environment you have to take notice. if credit starts to be a concern in form of hyg, i don't know who katie is but she better borrow that door. >> bonawyn might know where she is bonawyn, you're concerned about the consumer accessing credit. >> certainly i mean, they've already reached out to access credit which is already adding, you know, balance -- leverage to the balance sheet that may or may not have been tapped, adjjuxtaps that with institutional low in the first quarter and probably won't see the same type of fee generation. which the panelists are getting to and cathie wood called for -- virtual versus large trading houses which doesn't bode well for the sentiment has got negative so there may be a reversal unless the tradings or what you are paying for for the jpmorgan, goldman sachs over the original kpw or kre index it doesn

we have deutsche bank now seeing the fed funds target rate at 5% to 6%.eally calling for a deep recession to come by next year. and we already saw u.s. treasuries rallying, the 2-year yield plunging 50 basis point, despite the fact that we have strong demand from the action of the note. we are now seeing this pessimism with potentially more aggressive monetary tightening, the west since the 1980's or so, deutsche bank saying that price psychology will not help. that we are seeing an extremely tight labor market. this is an even more bearish prediction that we had from goldman sachs recently. haidi: and that can only worsen with this escalation when it comes to energy prices. russia making good on its threat to hit some of these countries who refused to make payments in rubles, now saying that it would hold gas supplies to poland and bulgaria, what is seen as a major escalation in the standoff between moscow and european countries over energy supplies and the war in ukraine. basically, they are halting gas fluids to countries who refuse to two's demand to

i'll start with deutsche bank. what do you think made them change their prediction? >> well, i think there's two things at the same time. one is there's pressure on earnings of companies and that is coming because of the federal reserve and the expectation that the fed is going to continue to raise interest rates. we're going to see that next week when they meet the 3rd and the 4th of may. microsoft were strong, but then you look through alphabet, parent company of google. they were weaker on the advertising front given some of what's happening in europe when it comes to youtube and companies advertising or in this case not advertising. but it really goes to the idea of a global economic recession. we'll be hearing later today from meta and later this week apple and amazon. a lot of these fang stocks, you look at from a 52-week basis, many are down between 15 and in netflix's case 71%. i think there's a question. is this the end or is this the beginning of the end in which we have deutsche and other banks saying it could potentially get worse. there's no real catalys

the economists at deutsche bank write inthis. we no longer see a soft landing.g of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession. last year it was the strongest economy since the ragan administration. now we're all trying to guess when the next recession will happen. >> a number of other banks have also raised the probability of a recession at the very least. goldman sachs and some others have placed the odds at about 1/3. so deutsche bank is still an outlier, but we do see this sort of darkening of the economic outlook right now among a lot of forecasters and economists and it's partly because, as you just read, the fed is tasked with getting inflation under control. and historically when they have done that, when they have raised interest rates, most of the time that has accidentally tipped us into recession. it was always going to be a really challenging task for them to figure out how to dampen inflation to get it under control. >> part of the problem is everything is hitting at once. >> yes. >> inflation was already running at a 40-year high, now r

that's why deutsche bank is calling for a recession, they're calling for a mild one.ed with a soft landing. instead we think the monetary policy will push the economy into a recession. this is a big deal, not that deutsch bank has a crystal ball, but it does speak to this level of concern of how hot inflation is and what the fed has to do to tame it. also it's unusual to talk about a recession at this stage in the recovery. this expansion began just two years ago, and we have this chart showing how the most recent recoveries have lasted much, much longer, lasted for years. the recovery from the great recession was the longest expansion on record. of course, the difference is that this recovery is much stronger. in fact, it's so strong that it's raised all of these concerns that the economy is overheating. >> yeah, just two years out of the pandemic first hitting this country, right? we'll be getting the minutes out of the fed's last minute this afternoon. thanks for the insight. >> thanks. >>> thank you so much for watching. i'm bianna golodryga. >> i'm jim sciutto. t

deutsche bank saying that recession is coming. goldman sachs saying maybe. saying that we could be looking at unemployment creeping back up to 5%. that is actually not terrible on a relative basis to where we were post financial crisis when i would come in with you and we were talking 10%, 12%. it was up there. >> you mentioned houses being more expensive. and you talked about a housing bubble. the dallas fed last week said that this is coming, it will burst. may not be like 2008, but prices have gotten so detached from market fundamentals. >> there is a limited supply and there is so much money being thrown into the system. so if you make it more expensive, maybe you as to that. you have a lot of people with these seven year a.r.m.s and then the ten year optionals and then they become due and a 30 year fixed straight about 5%, last year it was 3%. you can see where that could go. >> and why they are so front loaded right now, people are paying mainly interest the first two, three, four years. they are not giving 30 year loans out. they are giving out 15 yea

it's the first big bank to make such a bold prediction deutsche bank economists say stocks could plummetxt year and that unemployment could peak around 5% in 2024 for con particular, the unemployment rate hit a new pandemic low of 3.6% in last month's job report andrew ross sorkin, co-host of "squawk box. the minutes didn't seem so extreme. >> grim is maybe in the eye of the beholder in this instance. the economy is doing remarkably and the truth is it's doing too well that is actually the problem i don't know if people want to put it in that context, but that's what is happening it's doing too well and wages are not keeping up and i think there is a realization and you're hearing it now more and more from the fed and you can see it in the minutes a sense that what they have to do is tamp down demand and that's something that policymakers don't want to do, how do you do that you do that by raising interest rates and by making things more expensive and that's where we are at this point. the fed will make things more expensive and how quickly they make things more expensive is the hard par

. >>> and back here in the u.s., deutsche bank is predicting a major recession for the u.s.making the recession even worse than the bank's economists initially expected. matt egan is here with me on set with the very latest. so deutsche fwbank has researcho back up its claims. >> this is really all about high inflation. doich do you ha deutsche bank to say recession in the united states but they first said a mild one. but now they say that inflation is so high, it won't be mild, it will actually be a major one. and the crux of their argument is that the federal reserve is really, really late here when it comes to -- >> and too reactive. >> well, in this case that they are not reactive enough up until now, and then that they might overreact. they found that when you look at inflation and the unemployment rate, the fed is further behind the curve than it has been at any point since the early '80s. and the concern is that to catch up, they are going to not be able to just sort of tap the brakes on the economy and gradually raise interest rates. they will have to slam the brakes

deutsche bank hit, but not quite as badly.are left relatively unscathed, but we have spectacular gains and it as a result that is when it all started unwinding. they are really under the push and have pled not guilty and there lawyer is vehemently defending them. manus: it depends on who has the teflon coat and who pulled the ripcord earlier. coming up, reports of returning user growth on the facebook let form. we break down the numbers on "daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. dani: welcome back to bloomberg "daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger, alongside manus cranny in london. concern of user saturation under the legacy facebook platform. >> the millennials are fighting back, a fractional miss on advertising revenue led to a surgeon after hours trading of more than 18%. the headwinds were already priced in, the war in ukraine, apple driving new changes, competition over at tiktok. average revenue per user was the lowest since the third quarter of 2020. facebook, meta-platforms, convincing advertisers on a lower price point.

also with us, host of the podcast "on brand" with donnie deutsche.before we go into on brand, your thoughts on elon musk. >> simple equation, i don't know, to me when the richest guy in the world taking over the most important social media platform, that is just not a winning formula to me. and it reminds me of dr. evil and gold finger would take over the media. and my tummy meter said there is something not great about this. >> and if someone could tell them not to re tweet old tweets and that would be good. and you're starting with right-wing populism. >> at the beginning of 2021, there were 17 right-wing pop list leaders and now there are down to 12. we have le pen and trump and putin losing on the big stage. the death -- you have talked about this throughout the show. death of democracy throughout the world has been greatly exaggerated and particularly what happened in france yesterday, 58.5% for macron, it looks like the world and your dad talked about this and david kennedy earlier in the show, democracy seems to be on a winning formula versus

. >>> and a major recession is coming according to deutsche bank.g these concerns over a do you know turn. >>> stanley touchy is back with new food and new discovery. the new schb "stanley tucci searching for italy" premieres this sunday night at 9:00 eastern on cnn. ♪ ♪ we believe there's an innovator in all of us. ♪ that's why we build technology that makes it possible for every business... and every person... to come to the table and do more incredible things. hi! need new glasses? get 50% off a complete pair at visionworks! how can you see me squinting? i can't! i'm just telling everyone!... hey! for a limited time, get 50% off a complete pair. visionworks. see the difference. allergies don't have to be scary. spraying flonase daily stops your body from overreacting to allergens all season long. psst! psst! flonase all good. everyone knows eating well and exercise are a big part of losing weight. ww's new program teaches you how to do it. i still eat the foods i want to eat and i have lost 69 pounds, james. you're just changing your mindset and

plus, deutsche bank on the market reversal. started the session pretty firmly in the green now selling off into the close the nasdaq was up more than 2%, mike, at session highs what a turnaround we saw is it just trying to figure out how to digest those inflation numbers plus a surging price of crude oil doesn't help >> all those things, sara, i also think it was a reflux sigh of relief it was a better than feared number on the cpi, on the core cpi, and unclear how far that was going to get you. the growth stocks have been suspect in terms of a source of leadership in any rally. whenever you have these bounces, i don't know how long that continues. i think there's a little bit of perhaps selling pressure ahead of the tax deadline coming this weekend because you had massive gains built up in 2021 i don't think all those things are necessarily the most of the story today. it's much more about even though we got core inflation print, it doesn't really change the fed equation that much because they want to get back up to a neutral