colin robertson, diana amoa and scott thiel.n the markets this week, let's get a market check for you. two's, tens, and 30's. you see the bid coming in on the back end of the 10's. and the 30's. just a marginal one as we get a rally to the back into this week. still ahead, the final spread and the week ahead featuring comments from the fed's jay powell and the u.s. jobs report. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up over the next week, china's financial markets closed all the due to holidays. plus, fed chair jay powell and u.k. prime minister theresa may speak. on friday, the jobs report just around the corner as we wrap up the end of september and the third quarter. still with me from jpmorgan is diana amoa, scott thiel of blackrock, and colin robertson from northern trust asset management. he let's start in london as we given let's start in london as wrap up the quarter. good. this is a really interesting is quarter for credit

jonathan: still with me, diana amoa, scott thiel and colin robertson., i want to begin with you. the reserve moving that word, "accommodative." is is still in accommodative federal reserve? colin: yes, it is still in accommodative federal reserve. there are a number of important things going on here. removal of "accommodative" was them more of a position and that's what chairman powell wanted to send the message of, that the data is what is important. we know it is priced into the market and we know the expectations are for the fed numbers with respect to the dot plots. if you look at the dots, obviously there is a move priced in here in december and three more next year. that would put us at a position h, and end of 2019 at 3/8t that seems high to me for the 10-year treasuries. when you look further out where thedot plots are measured, expectation is we come to a terminal spot around 3%. varied. 2021 dots are when we see inflation stuck at low levels and moderate paces of growth, the likelihood of one move this year and three next year is really overbl

jonathan: joining me is diana amoa of jpmorgan, and scott thiel, deputy cio at blackrock. lus, coming to us from chicago is colin robertson, head of fixed-income at northern trust asset management. diana, i want to begin with you and talk about what is happening in italy. how big a risk is a budget deficit of 2.4% of gdp? diana: markets had been expecting something below 2%. i think the last few weeks we had numbers closer to 1.6%. 2% was really the top side the markets had been expecting. 2.4% is not a great number, particularly in the context where in the past, they have been able to meet their one-year forward projections. this time around, they don't necessarily have the tailwind from growth that they have historically had, and you have higher rates coming through as well. scott: it's important to take the number in the context of market expectation. italy had been meeting with investors to talk about this number in particular, but more generally the italian situation overall. they guided us to a number that was closer to below 2%. i think it's about the surprise that i

that was diana amoa. european union leaders -- ahead of a potential brexit summit in november.unning out that there is optimism in the air. here is what donald tusk had to say. >> the brexit negotiations are entering the decisive phase. there are several scenarios possible today, but i would like to stress that some of prime minister may's proposals indicated positive evolution in the approach. taylor: joining us from sulzberger with the latest is maria tadeo. some kindike there is of movement on the ireland border question. maria: there is, but it is not a good one. that is reflected in sterling. we heard from the head of the european council who argues that a proposal from the u.k. when it comes to the irish border does not work and will have to be reworked and negotiated. on top of that, we have a report by the times of london which says theresa will reject the offer from the european union tonight in a working dinner. she argues the idea that how the european union will treat your than ireland differently than the rest of the united kingdom compromises the integrity of the