joining us is dmitrov petrov. >> the medium term picture and inflation is favorable. it makes the meeting quite difficult. the same time, we have seen some inflation surprises in july. some expectations going higher. some cpi surprise in food elements, which means, there may be some additional food sharp going through this year. the most important is the ruble. the ruble is on the slide again. the primary factor for that is oil. the central bank cannot control the impact of oil. it doesn't like to add fuel to the selloff at the moment. which we think will trigger the decision to keep the rates on hold at this point. >> what's the nature of the inflationary surprise? should the cbr be worried about that? >> that's the issue. we need more information on that. so far, we see seasonal items being slightly higher. at the same time, the key question, what is the grain output this year. the ministry department says we'll see tons of grans. if the number falls below that, we'll see food price inflation going through later this year. at the moment, it's perhaps too early to ma