dollar. you put together your chart. we have a president of the united states who likes a weaker dollar. he is not ashamed to job on the subject. you wonder if there are forces that might mean a weaker dollar going forward. >> we are at a 14-month high today, so a good run. david: ok. a.m.,ic data had a: 30 retail sales numbers coming out. let's take a look at where retail sales have been in the past. all these things are quarterly things. thesen see how noisy numbers are. maybe there is a slight trend up in the past two years. the projections are for retail numbers to be down. in the last couple of months, the headline number has been inflated by automobiles and fuel. you take that out, .3% or something. at core sales,k the story is one of consistency. the consumers are not going out and borrowing a tremendous amount of money to spend on core items anymore. they are fueling economic growth , but not accelerating the pace of spending. instead, the biggest accelerant is capital spending, busin

dollar, and it has been good for the dollar.hese net longs not the whole story for you. i think trade war risks and geopolitics continue to wreak havoc for fx markets in the short term. there are two dollars to consider here. one is against e.m.. with sustained geopolitical uncertainty, the dollar could do well but against major currencies like the euro and the yen, we think the cyclical dynamics may have peaked and we are looking for tactical opportunities to reenter short dollar against that. what makes you think the dollar has peaked? because the trade war can't be sustained? the u.s. what when? -- the u.s. won't win? one is that the currencies that have been hit will recover against the dollar escalate in -- things and if they do the euro and yen will become safe havens. in particular, our convention it -- our conviction is really on the yen. that's where we see the value in any paradigm going forward. anna: it moved by .2% stronger for the end this morning. if that's your view on the dollar and you think the trade story wil

dollar index, the vanilla dollar , a dollar strength breakout this morning.rst of let me show you my data and bring you up-to-date with tencent. line withncome in analysts. a touch below. 41.2 billion yuan. net income for online -- i'm wrong. revenue and net income are below estimates. this is what i'm looking at. stocks declining. a lot of caution in the market. ,his has been started by turkey but going on to developing nations, dollar climbing, treasures climbing, and metals down. tom: very good. i gentleman who spent more time --istanbul than james bond we just lost the signal. it goes in and out. let us instead turn to our lead guest, james sweeney of swea credit suisse. james come up with all your resources, are we at a point of true contagion? markets, we are seeing that. our risk appetite index is in panic. tom: that is a dangerous word. measures the relative performance in risk-adjusted terms. when you see the most volatile asset strongly underperforming the least volatile assets, that can get you into a panic. we were in a panic in early 2016. this t

and you sell it today for fifteen dollars implicit in that five dollars of gain there must be an element of inflation and the purpose of this proposal is to factor that inflation into the ten dollars so let's say inflation over the five year period resulted in that stock not costing ten but after inflation twelve and in my example your gain would be only three rather than five that's the proposal its intent is to stimulate sales so that people be more apt to sell stocks and bonds not not having to pay tax on inflation and avoid what's called the lock in effect where so many people just hold stock until they die and that death their stock and its basis for purposes of gain or loss is then recalibrated to the date of death fair market value it's one more illustration that death is the ultimate tax plan to avoid income taxes unfortunate but true let me ask you this how many individuals do you think this would impact to me who are the who are the folks that hat would have the most exposure to capital gains wealth ninety seven percent of this proposal of the benefits of this proposal would go

dollar issue. you know our frequent guest jim rickards has said that he believes there will be an s.t.r. standard special drawing right that the i.m.f. special drawing right that's kind of what keynes had kind of suggested similar to that with the bank or of a global trading unit a currency not issued by any particular national government but it's a trading unit to avoid the situation of trade imbalances another thing jim records said about the u.s. dollar system is that. after twenty thirty years of since the collapse of communism the soviet system the us history supposedly ended and there becomes a point where an empire gets hubris and they start wielding their weapon of saying you can't access our u.s. dollar system so i want to turn to a quote which came last week from vladimir putin when he was at a conference i think it was in south africa and he was asked about russia's dumping of the u.s. dollar treasuries he said you know we're not getting rid we're not going to we're not against the u.s.

notes because of other people will accept dollar notes if the value of a dollar does not come entirely from self-fulfilling expectations ultimately it is backed by the fact that the u.s. government will accept dollars as payment of tax liabilities liabilities it's able to enforce because it's a government if you like currencies have underlying value because men with guns say they do and this means he says that their value isn't a bubble that can collapse if people lose faith so on the out of control state that is charging illegal taxes that came around to nine hundred thirteen completely and some taxes were introduced into the united states the one nine hundred thirty nine for that was sin taxes are just an obligation if you don't use this paper money that's backed by said state a guy with a gun will come and blow your head off so the ball krugman describes it as having no friction so yeah i guess of paul krugman if a guy showed up at his apartment with a machete and kind of set off then i'd be like i was fortunate that the only took two seconds and then ok said missing it only took tw

dollar and the u.s. dollar will be the preferred safe haven.the most attractive currencies also. manus: one thing that struck me this morning, you have this demolition on the equity side in emerging markets down over 20% but the fx opposite for emerging markets is only down 2%. argentina has acted, the indonesians have acted. are we going to see more rate hikes come through from a.m.? em?rom guest: it might be from other countries such as south africa. the question is whether we will see anything from turkey. the signals that the bank is not setting an investor friendly policy. i feel we will not see that anytime soon. that higherg risk uncertainty will return to emerging markets. the focus is still on turkey. we will talk more about that, thank you very much, staying with us. a quick word on the story that has crossed the bloomberg this morning, this is coming from writers, amazon is [indiscernible] the next sector to face the amazon phenomenon. we will keep watch on those. other breaking news. bayer andterday was monsanto faces a new dies-act

thirty dollars or three hundred dollars or three thousand dollars but this is a very high volatility. this is a really risky investment and if you're asking me whether somebody should invest then the answer is nobody should ever invest more. being capable of losing every single last cent of it. goldman sachs c.e.o. lloyd blankfein says bitcoin may be another bubble just like that of the dot coms and j.p. morgan chase c.e.o. jamie dimon compares cryptic heresy to the dutch seventeenth century tulip mania don't these men have a point i mean a bubble forms when there is public ignorance and with most people have a vague idea what it is and how it works. i think that i think you have to point the most people don't really understand what bitcoin is it is peer to peer electronic money that means i have a phone here i can use that phone to transfer money to a nearby phone or to phone on the other side of the planet the transfer is instant it is practically free nobody gets to decide whether i can make that transaction or not including financial authorities and that in itself will mean a fin

dollar and every time the u.s. dollar strengthens it seems to try and take a country down with it which again is a reflection of this this debt binge that the world is bent on in recent years and amassing as the i.m.f. recently reported over eleven trillion dollars in dollar denominated debt they know that these these headlines are not going away as you indicate and desperate countries will end up doing desperate things i've never owned a million years heard of a government trying to make a payment with a bond but again the value of the ball the bar is basically worthless and there is no central bank that can get in the way of inflation that is upwards of four digit gains we've just got a little bit of time danielle but you know speaking of your former employer the u.s. federal reserve i want to ask you about an economic indicator that did come out yesterday the day before and that's industrial capacity which shows that essentially we're staying about even i think it was the same as as last month but is industrial

notes because of other people will accept dollar notes if the value of a dollar does not come entirely from self-fulfilling expectations ultimately it is backed by the fact that the u.s. government will accept dollars as payment of tax liabilities liabilities it's able to enforce because it's a government if you like currencies have underlying value because men with guns say they do and this means he says that their value isn't a bubble that can collapse if people lose faith so on out of control state that is charging illegal taxes they came around to nine hundred thirteen completely and i'm taxes were introduced into the united states the one nine hundred thirty nine for that was sin taxes this time an obligation if you don't use this paper money that's backed by said state a guy with a gun will come and blow your head off so the ball krugman describes it as having no friction so yeah i guess of paul krugman if a guy showed up at his apartment with a machete and kind of set off then i'd be like i was fortunate that the only took two seconds and then ok said missing it only took two se

just since january first of twenty eight hundred fifty two billion dollars works out to two hundred and seventy five million dollars a day he earned this year i mean you see the result on the main street in america shops are closing so jobs are disappearing you know there's an onion which is a humor magazine made a reference recently that bezos rolled out a new business model and then had to cancel it because he realized it was slavery slavery is illegal yeah but. this is a concentration of wealth that is unprecedented and it does create a society that is going down two very separate tracks so there's no common ground jeff bezos you know he builds rocket ships and wants to space tourism two hundred thousand dollars a pop for people to go for joyrides and they'll be a lot of people lining up for that opportunity you know like they used to line up at the plane land to go on the roller coaster for a buck a lot of people for that you know two hundred thousand dollars is chump change to go up in a spaceship but jeff bezos that's great then you've got this forty seven million dollars you

current prices that we are receiving are anywhere from a dollar to two dollars less than they was three months ago and it's cause enough for her real concern whether we're going to be able to get those prices back in the near future and we're we're definitely worried about were the incumbents going to come to the fore nevertheless keith miller still supports. his the first president fighting for you asked interests he said yes the farmer hopes that trump can strike a deal with china and most of all miller hopes that this will happen soon. alexander phenomenon let's bring in sophie again a wall street correspondent up these judy's and chinese imports just going to be attacks on the united states at the end of the day. yeah i think better of the opinion that many people have to right now i would like to see what the watchdog of the american economy basically is saying to that the federal reserve bank and they have been repeatedly warning of the negative impact on the american economy when it comes to these ongoing trade disputes and economists reckon that every one hundred billion dollars

euro-dollar is flat. it was a weaker dollar story. now it is a mixed $. dollar story. down 0.6%. this is the worst week for crude in three years. that has to mean something. david: i was not ask you want. alix: we don't know yet. that is the question. david: emerging markets as possible. alix: we are joined by cameron crise, bloombergs macro strategist, and peggy collins, who leads u.s. investment strategy for bloomberg. it was a dramatic week. you can see the dramatic declines we have seen. it is the worst week since that february selloff. cameron, what was the catalyst this week? cameron: obviously, it was the carryover from turkey on the one hand, which obviously blew up monday, but that has recovered a little bit. there is the ongoing issue with .hina and china's currency we have had some recovery over the last couple days as authorities have stepped in more forcefully with a couple of measures, intervention and closing the capital account a little bit. dollar-yuan the rate. underlying everything is this u.s., through monetary policy and fiscal policy with treasury, is squeez

the dollar shekel tends to leave the big dollar moves, all the major dollar moves for the last 20% plus rally, the slump in 2017 at the rebound this year, all of them were led by dollar shekel. of.roke its therefore implying there is more downside to come. it is being validated that the has broken -- that its uptrend. the two best indicators are saying that we are due for sustained dollar weakness. when you put that into context back of a on the flattening yield curve and we have the dollars cnh topping out. there are a lot of market indicators saying the dollar index is set for a new dollar downtrend. you have continuing weakness in the emerging markets. the rupee is trading lower, the turkish lira is trading lower. that came continues. -- pain continues. mark: i remain worried about the turkish situation. the crisis will not and until they hike rates aggressively so on lira role -- will remain the backside. you have other markets like argentina also weakening. india, argentina, lira, spreading contagion and causing weakness in the rand. be nearing -- we might be nearing the end of the

dollar strength relative to the canadian dollar.from the canadian foreign minister talking about how that deal with mexico and the changes they had made regarding the auto industry. iny positive for canada terms of what they want to do when they come to the negotiating table. romaine: you mentioned the dollar. some folks looking for stability from this trade deal, assuming it can get worked out, we may see stability in the loonie and in the peso. taylor: people say u.s.-canada are in talks about specific issue, we assume the automotive sector and dairy and they will meet at 5:00 p.m. today to continue talks. you are seeing a little bit of dollar strength versus canadian-dollar weakness. much more ahead. thank you for joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network designed to save you money. even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data with a network that has the most wifi hotspots where you need them and the b

not only did president trump try to job own the dollar weaker -- jaw bone the dollar weaker, but china said we are as a weapone yuan in this trade war. we are not trying to actively weaken it. that does matter if you have the treasury market and the president of the u.s. trying to policy,e or tinker with especially if he recognizes the stronger dollar offsets what he is right to do on the trade side. that has a much bigger effect on an unequal trade balance that any tariff. that brings us to our second topic where he said in this interview that he thinks china is manipulating their currency, absolutely, and the euro is being manipulated also. if you look at the dollar and the room nimby in particular remnimbi in particular, you see a slight weakening of the yen on the day. the esting that versus yuan, we did not see as the of a reaction. they are at odds. officially anyway. the treasury has not labeled anyone a manipulator. riskingesident trump is being labeled a manipulator himself. china says they are trying to keep people from taking money out of china. in an interview with reuters,

because the dollar is stronger.ot because there is a weakness in the economy or there is the flipside of this, emerging markets are weakening because of the strength of the dollar. those of dollar denominated assets in which you are lending is costing you more. the benefit for the spread differential favors treasury more than it probably has all year. jonathan: is it the most important variable for you right now, the strength of the u.s. dollar and what happens with it? >> one step deeper the funding , conditions around it. what the fed is doing with their balance sheet, people do not like to focus on it. but the draining of liquidity is going to pick up. the funding aspect dollar, you are not seeing it really the way it should be in libor spreads partly because of the tax reform. we have had a lot of dollars coming back to the u.s. they are finding go place to park their money that is keeping funding pressure at the banking level low. but the next iteration of the em crisis will be the funding aspect. not just spre

and the dollar is down.s of fx movements, can come and go. it looks more robust at the moment and it has been in the past, but it could go again very quickly. i think one element that makes this correlation a little less from looking at the flow data, i have concluded that investors are somewhat cautious about going into the u.s. on a less hedged basis. normally in an economic cycle, as rates are moving higher, investors become more confident in the economic outlook and are more to -- willing to take on dollar exposure but the flow data for the united states doesn't show that. curvetening of the yield means massive hedging costs, the return in the u.s. is not as attractive as it looks on a clear nominal rate spread. guy: one of the suggestions that came out of yesterday's conversations was that the rate of change would be concerning the white house. we saw mnuchin's comments in davos. it is a different foreign-exchange policy produced by this white house. the u.s.e suggestions authorities would find a way of

dollar mark. that, 50 billion u.s. dollars. quite a call on apple.g on, george soros, famous for a number of calls. interesting is what he is doing in the tech space. facebook, a share in before earnings that weighed on shares of air. -- shares there. not a huge stake, but taking a boost in facebook. number of common hedge fund managers are putting money into spotify. the stock has gained 50% since its april debut. soros is boosting his holdings in that one. miller is a former money manager for soros, he put a wager in facebook, as well. this is the biggest addition in terms of holdings. we know facebook shares did get -- in the earnings report. in the oil space, he seems to be going against the oil rally and putting things into marathon petroleum, the fourth-largest edition. you can learn more about these billionaire investors on our on our terminal. there is warren buffett. guy: a complete switching gears. the indonesians have raised rates, surprising many. the economists we surveyed didn't suggest we would get a rate coming through. this is the re

just since january first of twenty eight hundred fifty two billion dollars works out to two hundred and seventy five million dollars a day he earned this year i mean you see the result on the main street in america shops are closing so jobs are disappearing you know there's an onion which is a humor magazine made a reference recently that bezos rolled out a new business model and then had to cancel it because he realized it was slavery slavery is illegal yeah but. this is a concentration of wealth that is unprecedented and it does create a society that is going down two very separate tracks there's no common ground jeff bezos you know he builds rocket ships and wants to space tourism two hundred thousand dollars a pop for people to go for joyrides and they'll be a lot of people lining up for that opportunity you know like they used to line up at the plane land to go on a roller coaster for a buck a lot of people for that you know two hundred thousand dollars is chump change to go up in a spaceship but jeff bezos that's great then you've got this forty seven million dollars you can p

dollar issue. you know our frequent guest jim rickards has said that he believes there will be an s.t.r. stand a special drawing right that the i.m.f. special drawing right that's kind of what keynes had kind of suggested similar to that with a bank or of a global trading unit a currency not issued by any particular national government but it's a trading unit to avoid the situation of trade imbalances another thing jim records said about the u.s. dollar system is that. after twenty thirty years of since the collapse of communism the soviet system the us history supposedly ended and there becomes a point where an empire gets hubris and they start wielding their weapon of saying you can't access our u.s. dollar system so i want to turn to a quote which came last week from vladimir putin when he was at a conference i think it was in south africa and he was asked about russia's dumping of the u.s. dollar treasuries he said you know we're not getting rid we're not going to we're not against the u.s. dol

dollar issue. you know our frequent guest jim rickards has said that he believes there will be an s.t.r. standard special drawing right that the i.m.f. special drawing right that's kind of what keynes had kind of suggested similar to that with the bank or of a global trading unit a currency not issued by any particular national government but it's a trading unit to avoid the situation of trade imbalance is another thing jim rickards said about the u.s. dollar system is that. after twenty thirty years of since the collapse of communism the soviet system the us history supposedly ended and there becomes a point where an empire gets hubris and they start wielding their weapon of saying you can't access our u.s. dollar system so i want to turn to a quote which came last week from vladimir putin when he was at a conference i think it was in south africa and he was asked about russia's dumping of the u.s. dollar treasuries he said you know we're not getting rid we're not going to we're not against the u.

dollar and every time the u.s. dollar strengthens it seems to try and take a country down with it which again is a reflection of this this debt binge that the world is bent on in recent years and amassing as the i.m.f. recently reported over eleven trillion dollars in dollar denominated debt they know that these these headlines are not going away as you indicate and desperate countries will end up doing desperate things i've never owned a million years heard of a government trying to make a payment with a bond but again the value of the ball the bar is basically worthless and there is no central bank that can get in the way of inflation that is upwards of four digit gains we've just got a little bit of time danielle but you know speaking of your former employer the u.s. federal reserve i want to ask you about an economic indicator that did come out yesterday the day before and that's industrial capacity which shows that essentially we're staying about even i think it was the same as as last month but is industrial

dollar and every time the u.s. dollar strengthens it seems to try and take a country down with it which again is a reflection of this this debt binge that the world is bent on in recent years and amassing as the i.m.f. recently reported over eleven trillion dollars in dollar denominated debt they know that these these headlines are not going away as you indicate and desperate countries will end up doing desperate things i've never owned a million years heard of a government trying to make a payment with a bond but again the value of the ball the bar is basically worthless and there is no central bank that can get in the way of inflation that is upwards of four digit gains we've just got a little bit of time danielle but you know speaking of your former employer the u.s. federal reserve i want to ask you about an economic indicator that did come out yesterday the day before and that's industrial capacity which shows that essentially we're staying about even i think it was the same as as last month but is industrial

dollars.tep could be complete currency control and not allowing dollars to get out of the country. uliette: global news on air, 24 hours a day and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top go. a little more stability coming through in markets in asia. you have the index higher. investors are assessing how much of a contagion be turkey issue is having into asian equities, particularly when you have the u.s.-china trade relationship simmering. the nikkei still seeing weakness and hong kong -- in hong kong and china. some of thet stocks. samsung is one of the front-runners in terms of market cap. a news report says it could lower the price of the expensive smart phone. -- san see some optical unny optical down 25%. everbright watching international. it is planning to raise $1.27 billion. shares are falling down to around 22%. manus: a red headline on the optical story. billion has been wiped of

way for us to realize how strange the artificial dollars really connected to life. the prize winning documentary from before asst starts aug ninth on d w. how to from great to have you here again from a famous festival to fantastic food this is what's coming up in today's show.

two is the strength of the dollar. they thought it would be short-lived, now we are dealing with a strong dollar against him bunch of major currencies. i don't know if that is a short-term or long-term event. either way, if it was not for that you would be a 3%. >> three basic ways to see this. continues or it reconciles with u.s. growth decelerating. european aging growth accelerating. which one is it? >> the u.s. decoupling continues. it is a phenomenon as we get into next year and the second half of next year. i think that decoupling will have stop. this is just forward growth. not long-term structural change. >> it raises the question whether you are in the coupling side of the story, and whether you want to actually play that and apply it to trade. a wider spread between the u.s. to your spread. >> the u.s. can continue to couple for a variety of reasons. all points were mentioned earlier. it is a matter of timing when we re-couple. have it are waiting, we in play, not going to blink. a lot of treasury supply. wha

tariffs on sixteen billion dollars worth of chinese products they come into effect in beijing responds in kind is there a way out of the race also coming up. caution about one of the biggest company listings in history the saudis insist iran close i.p.o. will not go. and how a dressmaker from broadway is helping to transform the lives of migrants in italy by turning them into tailless. this is your business update i'm having a home for him but then thanks for joining me the u.s. is a twenty five percent tariff on sixteen billion dollars worth of imports from china this is a second round of tariffs in response to what the trumpet administration calls beijing's unfair trade practices well china reacted swiftly with its own high tariffs on over three hundred american products as the trade vicious circle continues its dangerous downward spiral. new negotiations couldn't prevent the latest turn of the screw so far the u.s. and china have each imposed import duties on goods worth around fifty billion u.s. dollars now american companies in china are getting an easy automate issue that our com

dollars, preventing people in hedging u.s. dollars and so forth. the next step could be complete currency control, and not allowing dollars to get out of the country. argentina has taken emergency steps to stabilize its currency in the wake of an emerging market rout. it jacked up its interest rate, already the highest in the world. note a record 45% and pledged to keep it at that level until october. in london, armed police officers have responded to a car crash in westminster after his vehicle hit barriers outside parliament. a car was in a collision with parliament.side of the male driver was detained by officers at the scene. a number of pedestrians have been injured. officers remain at the scene. global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you so much. let's get to our top story, turkey, the lira has gained against the dollar in today's session ahead of president erdogan and the finance mr. speaking today. -- the finance minis

dollar. it is similar to what we have seen trump do in the past couple of weeks. the chinese stock market. coming into the trading week, as you can see, plenty of volatility and concern among investors. haidi: plenty of concern, but ,hat about spillover effect contagion? there is a difference between what the markets have said or are saying and what is coming from the trump administration. .os: that is true markets are concerned, and we did see the big jump in volatility in emerging markets, in the emerging markets currency index. piling on thely pressure given the conflict between the u.s., china and the u.s. and russia. of concerns about contagion. the market was down friday. you think president trump, even though he has been enjoying this with u.s. markets competitors are allies or friend amaze, i don't think -- frenem ies, i don't think they want the slump for the election, the midterm elections in november. i am sure they are watching closely and theoretically could pull back from the br

the kiwi dollar finding stabilization as the u.s. dollar eases off its bull run. futures are looking unchanged. the aussie dollar also unchanged. something to watch out for. the reserve bank of australia, the governor will be testifying before the house of representatives standing committee on economics, terminal subscribers can watch that. this is a regular semi-annual testimony that they do. and the rates here in australia all hinge on inflation and the wage growth, both of which seem to be missing in action, so let's see if the governor sees something that the rest of us don't. >> the s.e.c. is reportedly asking directors that musk told them about a substantial deal to take his company private. they said he is investigating whether musk intentionally misled investing groups. gains for a third day as turkey gears up in the worsening standoff. the president spoke to the leaders of france and germany and held a finance call. washington turns up the heat with the treasury secretary warning of additional sanctions. after a, the latest ribe back-to-back rate hikes. t

dollars. it has been a rocky road since its make -- it made its debut. a mixed picture when it came to that income statement. thank you so much for that. breaking news out of australia, watching the leadership crisis. australia's lower house has voted to suspend parliament. parliament is adjourned until september 10 amid its crisis. there is a two week break there before parliament. the prime minister could still resign. we could see the emergency meeting, a vote on the leadership happen today, tomorrow, or sources say as late as monday. looking at other pressing top stories. time, a fresh tariffs land from the u.s. and china. the trade dispute has dominated conversations on bloomberg today. >> if we simply want to have less of a deficit, that is not as hard to achieve and china can do that, but finding more long-term solutions will be much more difficult and i would say more difficult by ourselves. >> there is a growing level of concern that unless both sides do something differently, this --

much of this is a dollars story.ocal idiosyncratic factors and how countries run their current account deficits but this is fundamentally a dollars story. what happens if the fed decides to back off a little bit? showing twort here more fed rate hikes here. we expect someone like stan fischer would have said -- we are the central bank of the u.s. economy. is there any indication the fed looks at the emerging markets? and says maybe we need to back off despite what is happening with the low employment rate? maybe things will start to change. alberto: that is the hope of all of the traders that have been believing in the fed importance. is moreral reserve care about the domestic economy. they had said that before. when you're looking at some markets, there is some pricing in of a fed blink already but i think it is too early. the u.s. wants to build that drive powder for another -- taht dry powder for another slowdown. and the u.s. economy has become isolated because of the fiscal stimulus and the buybacks which means

they lose about equally because china is retaliating dollar for dollar.n andgoing to be cost on both sides. the issue is how to get out of the spiral, how to negotiate .eductions in barriers it is certainly true that china -- important area errors barriers and trade distortion. there is a wide consensus in the united states that something needs to be done about it. aretrade war inter of hikes not the way to get that. on one side, reductions. on another side, retaliation. china has said they will retaliate, but really, every time the story comes up, it's always talk. why are we not seeing action yet? >> i think because there is not yet enough pain. there has been a lot of talk. the amount of tariff increases so far has been mild. the u.s. has put tariffs on $36 billion of chinese trade in addition to steel, aluminum, and a couple other things. $14 million more coming shortly. but the big one, the additional $200 billion the president has threatened is still down the road. there's a lot to go through before that happens. the pain has not yet been great, but

dollar. -- mechanism is through stronger u.s. dollar.ia levine of the in line -- bny, thank you. not, is, believe it or not quite closed yet. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am emma chandra. coming up, tom schapiro, cheetahs partners -- gtis p artners president and cio. this is bloomberg. ♪ now to your bloomberg business flash. billionaire investor carl ica prominent shareholder advisory firms have come out in favor of the deal. he has called it a travesty, saying cigna was overpaying. bain capital private equity has agreed to purchase esurer. a 72% premiumg over friday's closing price. falling.een bridgewater associates has maintained their position in gold. 5% intal fell more than the second quarter. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thank you so much. we turn to wall street beats, covering three things on wall street. first up, goldman's european affair. goldman sachs is legal and financial trouble. the never ending lehman short. making millions when lehman went bust decades ago,

dollar at a 96 print. dxy, bloomberg dollar index.,ng at stronger turkish lira blowing out earlier at that big 5.8% move. frome looking at a speech president erdogan in an hour and 40 minutes or so. what you need to know is not about spacex or this or that or the other thing. this is the san francisco office of the securities and exchange commission. judith burns had no comment yesterday. we are fortunate that alex webb, bloomberg's opinion columnist has comment this morning. where are we right now in this drama? alex: obviously, we started with a tweet. media and investors, and now incomes the sec. they are asking questions of tesla and if there is any truth behind those tweets and whether there should be any regulatory announcement beforehand. the question is whether they launched a formal investigation. that has not happened yet. i would not be surprised if one does materialize. tom: where are the wall street firms? one of the lead stories, at least the reporting, is mr. musk cannot. are they now -- cap them out. giving advice? has

this is a dollar story because dollar rate has been going up and dollar assets have become more attractivea lot of people discounted that, but our strategists say in the u.s., the central bank is the only game in town and that is a reason the dollar has been well supported. nejra: speaking of central banks, the political changes, does that make any difference to the rba's rate hiking path? we saw a little repricing in markets over the changes in politics. james: i don't think so. like a lot of central banks, the rba is pretty independent. if it affected the economic outlook, it might have switched them a little, but they will do what is right for the australian economy. nejra: you were talking about aussie yen and that being a play on the trade. in terms of other commodity how are you positioned on other commodity currencies? james: we are relatively neutral. we bought some brazilian government local debt. that is much more of an em play more generally. the selloff in em assets over the summer has been overextended. we have taken turkey as an example and extended it into the em generally.

screw over another four dollars recorder surance. these these kinds of models will collapse and so will the value but if you think about it max who does it hurt that hurts the guys you know that that's the income inequality problem right it was overheard loses you know twenty billion dollars in a day a gene that helps income inequality right he's rich as you was before so that kind of thing goes on and he called it was you know a realistic model for a length of time it actually benefits things especially a production comes back to united states another common person as a job and or a right in other words wall street is the big loser going forward and main street could be the big winner and that's the way markets go karl denninger thanks so much for being on the kaiser report there is really an x. herb my pleasure and that's going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and stacy everett i think our guest karl denninger of market hyphen techer dot org the place to go for data and analysis and get that nicevil

, the dollar being a safe haven. the means you are buying core bonds in europe, and the two 10 spread continues to flatten. and this is on its own, despite the risk off field. jason: that is a fascinating turn of events. alix: it does not make any sense. we have to take these moves in that mindset. jason: we are joined this morning by mike mckee, as well as brooke sutherland, bloomberg's opinion columnist. so -- none of us are out there. alix: keep going, whatever. >> i am going in five minutes. said something interesting as we were coming on, there are a lot of folks on vacation and they have to be waking up and to thinking, do i have to get back to work? mike: it is a big deal. our friends at the financial times started this by reporting that the ecb is concerned about the european banks and their exposure to turkey in foreign currency loans. particularly unicredit. and that raises the specter of, could this be another greece? could this bring down the banking system? most analysts i have read this morning say prob

dollar.merging-market fx very much the story. jeremy, great to have you with us. a chart here shows turkey versus argentina. for thesety stunning two countries. are we being discerning enough between emerging markets, or are we -- is the fx world tempted to put everything in the same basket? >> that is the first target as soon as something like this kicks off. start playing against them and see how much we connect size against them quickly. we do not think the situation warrants dollar-rupee above 70. objectively -- and abjectly large move on the day for the dollar-rant. dollar-rand. they are always the first kids to get picked on, unfortunately. manus: jeremy, good morning to you. the global market map really encapsulates what you have been saying. the rupee is still under pressure. i was looking at the trade deficit for them, the widest in five years, $18 billion. the market had penciled in 15 point something billion dollars .- $15.7 billion the indonesians may raise rates later in the day.