we are now joined by doug duncan / chief economist, fannie mae. it seems that we have a mixed outlook on housing. in your opinion has it bottomed out or not? our forecast is pretty consistent with what the results of the survey say. in this survey 80 percent of people say they feel like housing has bottomed. in particular when they talk about price they figure it will be flat or 1% increase. we may differ a little in that we may think there may be a little more downside to the prices but not a large amount. we do not expect a strong recovery in housing for a while. that will wait on a pickup in employment which we do not see happening for a couple years. there is very modest growth from a historical standpoint. housing is a big piece of that. let's talk about the numbers on existing home sales for example down 32% from 2007. home prices are down 16% from 2007. you said prices could see a little more downside, how much are we talking? it is difficult to tell because of the policy interventions. for example you saw prices actually go up a little bit