following latest developments, doug duncan. lot of people calling for housing boom because of a 4 and a half percent mortgage which i don't get but is it doomed? >> the average mortgage rate since world war ii is about six and a half percent. today's rates are good from a historic perspective. we looked at the last two times mortgage rates to a significant degree to see what happened in the marketplace. that was 1994, 1995 and 1999, 2000. in both ip stances the numbers of homes sold fell or flattened but prices went up. just not as fast. you'll see some slowing but it's unlikely unless there is an additional upward shock that you would see prices decline. >> we often forget that inventories also play a big role in where home prices go. if there are fewer homes in the market there is going to be more more bidding. what do you see in terms of transaction volumes? >> you're absolutely right about the sensitivity. we would expect to see the volume are going to level off or slow a little bit, but we've been in the market saying for

let's get a breakdown, duncan brock director of sips. doug, nice to see you. really strong number.is the sustainability of it? how does it reflect what is going on? >> i think the sustainability comes from the fact that house building in particular has been strong for six months now. and that's starting to feed through. the strongest level we have seen for a period of time. other thing that came from the survey, interesting for us, employment levels were high. companies don't invest in people unless they're confident in the future of the company going forward. and we as look at the confidence the people have in the future. 50% of the companies surveyed said they were expecting growth over the next 12 months. >> what's been the biggest driver of this turn around? construction was a big dragger, biggest dragger on gdp in the first quarter. >> yeah. i think the driver is confidence in housing particularly. >> does that feed back to the policies or -- >> policies -- >> what is it? >> there was encouragement for housing building. we have seen the growth over the last six months. you arg