lori rothman is here to discuss this with charlie gasparino and doug holtz-eakin, director and presidente american action forum. doug, let me start with you, what do you think of the big plunge in oil? >> look this is a really good news story in the end. it reflects the fact that u.s. production has broken pricing power of opec. the saudis took a look at emergence of u.s. as largest producer of liquid fuels and decided they need market share, not high prices and keep pumping. this is not temporary. this is change in the global markets and this is important. melissa: i covered oil a long time. in summer it was $147 a barrel. this is sea change. peak oil is never going back down. even though it feels like something real is going on forgive me if i'm skeptical. >> something real is going on. it may not be $60 a barrel forever but it is not going to be 100, 120. it's a different world. >> our lack of dependence is real with fracking and things of that nature this is big stuff. i've been with you when it is high, everyone says we're done, we're finished. melissa: peak oil. >> this is interest

joining me now, doug holtz-eakin, economist and president of the american action forum. shane cider man, founder of bay ridge financial group, and moody's chief economist john lonski. great to have all of you here. shane, i will start with you. i want to talk about markets first because it was a highly volatile day. we had swing of 346 points from high to low, big moves. why is the market so volatile right now? >> i think fear. fear drives markets. when you see russia raise that rate up six 1/2 basis that is pretty impressive. they're in a little bit of trouble. gerri: what you're talking about russia's national bank essentially took interest rates to 17% overnight. that was unstabling. but we had oil prices actually come down a couple of cents here. >> i think that that the next quarter will show up with the consumer. the middle class will benefit big time and small business own years john, let's get to that. i thought falling oil prices, we had them go up only a couple of cents today. i thought falling oil prices was good news for all of us, for consumers, country and

joining me now, doug holtz-eakin, economist and president of the american action forum. founder of bay ridge financial group, and moody's chief economist john lonski. great to have all of you here. shane, i will start with you.

doug will remember, douglas holtz-eakin wrote in the new york times that the real number was going to add to the deficit by $562 billion. his estimate and the cbo estimate were off by $700 billion. so what i'd argue is that the cbo should express uncertainty in scoring. and i have to say -- and this is controversial. okay. i give a talk at the cbo a couple years ago about this. cbo has established an admirable reputation for impartiality. maybe it's best to leave it alone and just continue things as they are. i worry, though, and maybe this is just my being an academic from the outside who doesn't understand washington, but i argued that there's been a social contract to accept cbo estimates. i worry that social contract is going to break down at some point, someone will dig in, in congress or the media or dig in and find some estimate from the cbo they don't like, ask how the sausage was put together, and then say, well, you know, who knows. and then this cbo's reputation will go. i would rather the cbo face up to this, and provide uncertainty in its scoring measures. very simple way