to too many weird the fed might be getting more dovish.worried it might -- to quickly. the land of the rising yen. japanese currencies rallied to the highest level against the dollar in 17 months. is the boj powerless before the yen's dissent?

they could be a matter of the dovishness outweighing the dovishness we have heard from the federal reservecently, from that fomc meet ing. we will be monitoring this throughout the morning. in the meantime, let's get to the bloomberg is net/. let's get to caroline hyde. caroline: thank you so much, hans. shares have dipped is by better-than-expected first-quarter profits. the release of the galaxy s7 gave it a headstart on apple. estimated onwere the sleales with 9 million units sold. emc is seeking to sell a business as part of a plan to divest more than $6 billion of assets. but is according to people with knowledge of the matter. is move comes as dell pushes ahead with the largest technology takeover ever. numora traders have been accused of increasing the spread of the traits and generating about $7 million in additional revenue by lying how much they paid for debt. shapiro, michael graham and, and tyler clemens have pleaded not guilty and were scheduled to go to trial in november. plansf executive officer to step down, according to the nikkei. earlier, directors voted down proposed pe

we have had a very dovish market become even more dovish in pricing.t is the dollar, which gives problems to the japanese authorities because the last thing they want is a strengthening on the yen. hans: pmi is coming in. the preliminary was 50.4. the number is 50.7. france is coming in right in line with expectations, but still native. -- but is still negative. italy is coming in on the upside. we have seen some strength with the german economy, but not a huge upside. richard, what do you make of these numbers? think it is early days, but it points to something we have seen before. the german economy is doing well as a result of the qe. but there is still quite a bit of work to do and the ecb will be quite vigilant in their program. hans: richard, thanks for that. the euro-dollar is down on the move. staying with bloomberg television, we have "the pulse" coming up next with francine lacqua. all of us here on bloomberg television, we wish you a good week and good luck with those jobs trading numbers when i come out at 1:30 u.k. time. ♪ francine: how lo

did you feel like markets reacted appropriately to a very dovish yellen?it was surprising in the direction that it went with janet yellen doubling down on the dovishness. tuple were thinking because the other central bankers had hadrmined what yellen initially said that she would be more hawkish. it was a surprise that it ended up being a positive. now there might only be one rate hike, there will not be one in april. people were thinking that now is a good time to consider back -- to continue back in socks. alix: there seems to be some kind of divergence in the language out of the bed. what is your take? -- a language coming out of the fed. you getyour take? >> different to like you would on any committee. but we will see going forward is more of a narrowing. it does seem a little too tentative. it is important to be cautious, but there is also the risk of being too tentative. metlife, winning a big victory against the u.s. government. the less labeled it too big to fail, that designation. to gete of four nonbanks that designation. they had been battling

most dovish yellen at 2.9.peeches and remarks since desiccate a possible widening in the views on monetary policy. steve leisman, cnbc business news. >> there is a sense of urgency. deuceal bloom. after a summit originally planned for today was canceled due to lack of progress in talks with athens. the sticking point while the greek business legislation which would set out contingency measures should things get off track. you have trying to get talks together. so you don't have a sense of failure on the very last round. you have been covering this a long time. >> i have. i can tell you what we're seeing at this precise moment is an agreement on 3% worth of gdp of --. that is the package. they want an additional 2% leeway so if they get their budget offtrack they have these additional measures they can then support and try and backstop what is going on in grea greece. the problem is such a slim majority, it is passing those measures back in parliament. and of course you know this is what the imf has pushed for a

guy: draghi needs to sound dovish, right?ould not surprise me if they tee up further easing if necessary. market is pricing the lion share of rates. it is well within their toolbox. jonathan: that is the hangover from the last meeting. they did the q&a session. does he change that? will it make a difference? guy: it is still in the toolbox. we will wrap it up there. jonathan ferro joining me. obstacles did -- hans nichols did a great show. draghi coming up later. ♪ thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast b

how much dovishness are we going to see? tom joins us now from capital markets. call for year-end hikes from three to just one. good to talk to you. >> it was not a fundamental call. it was not a fundamental economic call. it was a fundamental view on yellen. the reality is she has been extremely dovish edit seems as if she has created an extremely high hurdle to actually see two or more hikes. for everyone.r we have been saying four hikes. the fundamental backdrop continues to support the idea of hikes this year but i think given yellen's dovishness toward the global backdrop -- backdrop, think it will be difficult to see more than two. we were basically forced to cut our view. alix: you have argued the fed has met its mandate. the jobless rate right around the long-term estimate as well. does the lack of willingness to raise rates again mean it has adopted a new mandate? how would you describe the mandate? >> it is reasonable to make the argument that in the context, as you rightly outlined our view, you are already north of the forecast for inflation this year

a matter of who will be more dovish than the other or who will be more dovish relative to expectationswith the federal reserve, we are seeing a more dovish stance in light of inflation statistics showing a pickup in the u.s., the fed seems to be preoccupied with risk to the downside inflation. the chief cabinet secretary has come out twice and said that he is looking at the fx markets with vigilance. if a chinese policymaker came out and said those words, twice in a week, this market would fall out of bed if china were looking for a weaker a currency, why does japanese get away with that kind of rhetoric? >> i wish i knew the answer. hang oncentral bankers every word and it used to be where we focused on more companies, not with his what is the central banker saying. david: how can they get away with it. they want to talk it down and it looks like they cannot. the market based not believe them when they say they may intervene to get the yen down. >> they want to introduce two-way wrist into the tray or slowing if they feel the yen will keep going up. if it is a fundamental move and the

and then you can see the most dovish is kansas city fed president george most dovish yellen 2.9. we got lynn reaser, their speeches and remarks since december indicate a possible widening on views monetary policy. they do vote together in every meeting, simon. >> yes, in a word do you think they'll make a statement after the conference? >> i think not. i think the markets should be prepared for possible somewhat guidance on saying, look, rate hikes are still alive but they're not nigh. >> at least you get to stay in jersey today, steve. >> yeah. >> nice to see you. steve liesman there as we anticipate the fed. meantime shares of twitter plunging as revenue misses estimate and guidance again a big worry within tech. cnbc spoke exclusively with ceo jack dorsey, all the highlights on that coming up. >>> and donald trump coming close tore nailing down the gop nomination after last night's big wins declaring himself presumptive nominee. he will make a major foreign policy speech at 1:00 this afternoon. more on that ahead. >>> quick check on where we are with oil, currently trading as

from falling into a air market, continued dovish comments? michael: you can look at europe and japan, who have taken their accommodation to the next level. 50's down the past year. these regions are using negative interest rates. they have massive asset purchase program's going on. you see investors losing confidence in those central banks. so the concern here is, if investors here lose confidence in our central bank, we could see that kind of downturn of matter how dovish. we are at the end of a long expansion that has been going on for seven years now. -- there is only so much more the fed can do here. or categorize the first quarter is the correlation between portland stocks. -- what the horrible is are the correlations that make them a sense to? michael: we saw earlier in the .ear, stocks and yen unwound those concerned may. while those factors should play into the equity market, it should not be on a tickertape basis. for tick basis.c that means people are speculating and not going for the long-term. thelet: what are ramifications of tha

the key question is how dovish or how easy does he want to sound p.r last time in march he added a huge stimulus program which markets embraced and rallied off of but then turned lower and the entire soothing effect wore off when he said that interest rates probably weren't going to go much lower from here. so does he hint that the ecb has more tools or is he going under pressure -- >> -- been clear about his negative views about interest rates earlier. and i think in terms of detail people are hoping to get more on what bonds they are going to start buying. but i don't think people are expecting any form of action or any clear dovishness. he announced big measures, he's got to wait for them to filter through. the second round of tltros was -- i forget what the -- >> just like the say tl -- >> exactly. if it was just focussed on currency last round measures then -- >> -- ever since. >> -- nosly that it back fired i think it was more focused on bank lending. so the -- anyway -- >> plus what does he say if anything as the uk brexit which is going to be

march 16 we had a dovish meeting.ppened the next day of trading -- march 17, next full day of trading after the fomc meeting -- copper sort of i 3%. if you get a dovish fed, you get struck a commodity prices. watch the dollar, but also watch the currency -- matt: there is a soft peg. they would be correlated. mr. davis: right. lisa: even the people are trading without data, how much conviction is there -- is trading slow? mr. davis: the way the market works -- matt: they are going in blind? mr. davis: china is such a black box, we have different data releases, but anyone who says they know, they are exaggerating. we have to grope in the dark. copper was trading on correlations with other comedies. now that we have entered into this season of the gulf in demand -- the spring months when china starts coming back live, we will get data, and copper will start trading based on what is going on with automobile production, real estate. lisa: real stuff. matt: interesting. you are for joining us. dane davis, barclays commodit

blinkers and they were a little bit dovish. whoe is not the only member is a little bit more hawkish. there have been members and not all of them are voting. they say the interest rate hikes why thely and it is forthcoming federal reserve .eeting will be interesting nobody expects him to move the policy and it will be interesting to see if we get many dissenting. move. a policy if we get more next week, the market looks at june seriously as a live meeting and we could have market movement. if the market begins to have a possibility with interest rate hikes, it is likely we will get strength. >> i am pulling up my favorite function. you say that it is time for us to reset with a little bit more to send out there. 13.7% and that is a frisky move that you are calling for. what will it take to make this more live. -- live? >> you look at the data and it was disappointing and the data in the united states is good and janet yellen was quite positive about the domestic demand and the u.s. is a closed economy and then we look at the in

or read into this a more dovish tone. the fed has seemed more concerned about what is going on in china, for example, we might have read into this a more dovish tone, but we are not. it appears to be decidedly more hawkish. far as tot go so describe it as very hawkish, but it is surprisingly hawkish in the degree that it is hawkish. how is that? schatzker,, it erik we will talk with you later. remember, you can follow on the bloomberg terminal. ericas been chuckling as was talking about this hawkish bent by the fed. jim: he has a hard job. i suggest that as journalists, we take a little less preferential view. they remind me in the aggregate of the most novice of novelist retail trend following investors. they have got no model. they have got no history of central banking. what they want to be is right, which means they with thee in sync latest headline, and that is not the approach to making money on wall street, nor is it the approach of making a good job of central banking. on the one hand, it you are one guy. tony, yo

just reinforcing a lot of dovish expectations stateside. that of course boosting the equities markets and having an impact on the dollar trade, as we were just discussing a little earlier. let's give you a look at how the u.s. markets closed. it was the nasdaq that led the charge, up about 1.6%. that was the highest level for the nasdaq of 2016 thus far. the dow jones closing higher by about 0.6%. that was its highest level going back to mid-march around that dovish fed statement. the s&p 500 up by 1%. well, the fed minutes the focus yesterday, but now all the attention turns to the ecb. this comes with the release of the european central bank minutes due at 1:30 p.m. cet. investors will be looking to gauge the level of support in favor of last month's stimulus package. this alongside any clues on mario draghi's next policy steps as well. well, speaking to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament a bit earlier, the ecb vice president expressed his willingness to tackle the eurozone inflation problem going fo

those dovish terms are perhaps official policy.nathan: that's the hard thing, you have to find a captain in this respect. if that's what's going to happen, that's what going to happen. i think obviously, people really do want to save. you look at inflation, and it's moving, but not in a drastic way. at the end of the day, whatever comes out of the fed, it will be prolonged in any case. i think the time has been set for this dovish period. you really will start to see significant growth on the economic side and the inflation and that stance will actually change. rishaad: janet yellen is preoccupied with what happens in the employment situation and has good news with that on friday. report showingbs how the jobs had been created, but actually wage growth numbers, which are pretty good. jonathan: yes. i think that is the positive thing. when you're seeing the economy start to respond, then you do start to see things moved to the top side. -- moved to the top side. see that inflationary since the fed wanted, we are down below the forec

to me, the fed's dovish tone is saying that yellen really wants to take things slow. ultimately, we think she's going to raise rates. i think the fed will have to raise rates due to the strength of the u.s. economy, the fact inflation is picking up. i think yellen is concerned about not only the international picture but wants markets to continue to do well. >> with that dovish fed, eric, what are the best assets to be buying? >> what we think about in credit, high yaeld and bank loans are attractive. also, selecting areas of emer emerging markets. we're in a low interest rate environment. not only in the u.s. but particularly even outside the u.s. and the developed world. i think they should continue to do well. >> ericing, thanks so much for joining us this morning. much appreciated. >>> when we come back, big wins for ted cruz and bernie sanders in wisconsin last night, but does this derail the path to the nomination for front runners donald trump and hillary clinton? we'll tackle that question from washington after the break. >>> but first, here's today's national

it is in the distance, but i think this supports the dovish position. i think this is ultimately good for equities. i have taken the position i don't think we're going to get a good rally equity market unless we really see earnings begin to recover from quite a downfall as we saw in 2015. but i think that is a possibility the second half of the year, and that supports what i think -- i think we're going to be between 17,000 and 18,000 for a number of months backing and filling, but i think we have a good chance for 19,000 by the end of the year. should not be looking at the chinese manufacturing data they can stronger-than-expected? u.k. manufacturing and european manufacturing? everythingto look at , caroline. it is true. one of the reasons people say, jeremy, why do we have such a big house back? major reason.is a there was a big fear january, february, a big devaluation from china that could set off a currency war and all of southeast asia. then when oil was plummeting , thato $26 a barrel, wow was scary. both of those factors have normalized. china

was this up hawkish or dovish statement?we thought it was dovish because they may set themselves up for a june hike. they clearly did not do that. and i think there is a sort of more subtle reading of it that the committee seemed quite that they have underpinned the risk asset recovery since the last meeting. that is why the june hike, people talked about it, it is so unlikely. to be banished from your mind. >> to be learned anything about what the fed is going to do? >> it is much i do about nothing. -- ado about nothing. a mentioned june. that is the long bond for the u.s., but we did not learn much. we will learn more over the next month or two as long as global equity markets are stabilized. that is the key for yellen. she has assumed the role of global banker in the last two meetings, indicating global, not just domestic risk markets, are critical. this may stabilize the stock market and bond prices. the commentary about artificiality of yields and financial impression that has gone over for six years now. through, andm

there's still a lot of debate over what the fomc will do, just how dovish they're going to be. we all know the u.s. banks are aching for them to raise rates. >> sure. the first point on the energy side and the nick they will take, i think this is nothing like the subprime when you had 60% of loans back in '08, '09 which were related to subprime. you're talking about total energy loans to the world banking environment is only 6%. 94% of energy loans are taken in euro bonds, and bonds generally. so they're not going to hit the banks. that's one i'm not concerned about. >> then there's the commodities trading side when it comes to the investment banking performance. >> sure, but you've seen what's been happening. business is picking up in april. commodities have been picking up nicely. in fact, just in the last month. so that should show some improvement. with regard to interest rates, i know it's going to be lower longer now with what yellen's saying, but we're still looking for one to two increases this year. so i agree with you on your point about the yield curve. that's what's

they mentioned that in the first paragraph and that could be taken dovish. ellen zentner, you are sticking with us. still to come, our conversation with ellen zentner continues. and joe, mike and i dive into the bloomberg terminal. ♪ scarlet: this is the bloomberg special report. i am scarlet fu with joe weisenthal and mike mckee. michael: i went to get back to ellen zentner, chief economist for morgan stanley. this should fall into the category of what they should do versus what they will do, but when you look at the fed raising interest rates and what we are talking about between now and the end of the year, is this really just angels dancing on the head of the pin? here is a chart that shows the corporate darling spread, basically, your average corporate bond, and the fed rate increase and we have seen corporate spreads come down, borrowes paying less to even though they pay interest rates. it is not look like they will hurt the economy of they try to move higher and solve some of the problems they created in the markets. ellen: those are all fine points,

the u.s., clearly the fed became more dovish.here we saw questions about central bank policy, particularly in europe and japan, particularly about the efficacy of what those central banks are doing, we didn't see a stronger rally, and they didn't end the quarter in positive territory. that's an important thing to bear in mind. yes, there was improvement in data in the u.s., which had something to do with it. elsewhere, where there wasn't good fundamentals, it's more central bank based. >> agree. and you had other factors line up with that, including stabilization of commodities. oil really got off that $20 a barrel level. we were in the mid-20s. we also saw this emerging markets rally, which we'll talk about. we also saw the data coming in better. corporate profits are going to be the big question going forward. >> indeed. there's been lots of data already this week, of course. at the top of the list, the march nonfarm payrolls report comes out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time today. unemployment is forecast to hold at an eighty-eig-yea

also what does the dovish fed to mean.et me ask you about what is going on with the yen. : i think it is that surprise year that affected a trade and that is the carry trade. a sickly when you borrow and sell a lower yielding asset and you use those funds to buy something, a riskier asset like a currency or bond that yields --e or a stock of equity i've an interesting chart you're looking at perhaps the impact of the yen carry trade. the yen dollar gains a percent. is actually seen in the past 10 instances the stocks are losing dayt .8% on average on the when you see that kind of strength in the yen. i'm not saying that's totally what's happening, that's not the whole story. it's also not the story that when the yen goes up, stocks go down. it is also kind of seen as a safe haven move. if there is a nervousness about the global economic environment, we see that rate. aiver cold and we also have appreciation of gold. carol: what are you looking up particularly with the x? vicks? listed -- we have a chart looking at what is

francine: how long can the fed state dovish? hoping a march jobs report to shed light on the shadowy rate path. kickulus kick sharding -- starting the old engines of growth. is the rally doomed to fail? elon musk unveils the newest tesla as orders surge. so, welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. i'm francine lacqua. we've had some news for individual countries. euro area march manufacturing pmi actually rising a touch, to 51.6. compared to a preliminary figure of 51.4. that gain really comes from germany. germany saying the manufacturing therising 50.7 instead of 50.4 we saw previously. we are getting the headlines from the pboc. we had some china gauge figures. the china economy operation is stable. what we heard yesterday from s&p, downgrading the chinese economy. given the breaking news we had a couple minutes ago, let's check in on the markets. this is a picture for european stocks at the moment. the new quarter was fresh to clients. down 3.5%. investors today really looking to key u.s. jobs data for indications of the

angie: the fed has been dovish, and likely to remain dovish until december, but is there a thought thatll of the tools, the tricks of the trade, as it were, to boost this recovery? do a qe4, they could but they've done a wonderful balancing act of keeping us off guard. nobody really dare say i think they will do this, because they have often said one thing and then done the other in the past. i you had to hold me to it, agree they will be very dovish this year. especially that speech that janet yellen gave in march to ,he economic club of new york and the minutes of the federal reserve meeting for march, where they wrote the word global 23 times. they could reverse that, but why bother? it seems to be working. angie: not so much in japan though. a lot of pressure growing that in fact it would be negative if they did not do what was expected, expand the asset purchase program. 23 out of 41 economists are expecting them to ease, which means half of them will be disappointed. angie: how about you? >> i think they will say something, but i also don't think it will be impact for. ,he analogy

did you feel like the markets reacted appropriately to a very dovish yellen?n a senseurprising of the direction it went, yellen doubling down on the dovishness was unexpected from what i've been hearing from people throughout the week, they were all thinking that because the other central bankers had come out and undermined what she had initially said, that she would come out and be more hawkish, but the opposite was true, so the market was surprised and it ended up being a positive. there might only be one rate hike this year. there will definitely not be one in april as the probability shows. people are thinking it is no good time to get back in the stocks. >> people are looking for some kind of split coming out of the fed. they are being openly -- what weve and will see going forward depends on how the data comes in, and it more of a narrowing in. it's appropriate to because she is in the outlook for the economy, there is also a risk of being too tentative. metlife winning a big victory against the u.s. government. the u.s. have labeled it too big to fail a

i think we been surprised by this dovish turn, to quit the extent they have been dovish, and she's beenby a fair few of her committee members as well. volcker,you could ask greenspan, bernanke and yellen one question, what would it be? richard: i would love to understand the relevance of u.s. data. we are talking about the shift in stance from december, they were talking about four interest rate hikes. now the only thing that's happened is the condition for integrates -- interest rate hikes have improved. it's very clear that the u.s. is looking at international conditions right now. and regardless of how good u.s. data is, the key is going to be can we see financial markets stabilize? richard, do you think they should stop saying to dependent? -- data dependent? that was ast week, strong set of data. the six-month averages around 235,000. it was a slight increase in the implement rate, partially offset by an increase in the participation rate. these are good numbers, head of forecast. we are not seeing traders adjust their excitation as regards to u.s. interest-rate hikes as a result.

scarlet: was this a hawkish or dovish statement?inic: we thought it was pretty dovish because they may set themselves up for a june hike. they clearly did not do that. and i think there is a sort of more subtle reading of it that the committee seemed quite comfortable that they have underpinned the risk asset recovery since the last meeting. that is why the june hike, although people talked about it. it is so unlikely. it should be basically banished from your mind. >> did you learn anything today about what the fed is going to do? bill: it is much ado about nothing. they did downgrade the global condition. they did not mention june. that has given hard to the long bond in the u.s. by three or four basis points but we did not , learn much. we will learn more over the next month or two as long as global equity markets are stabilized. timmy that is the key for yellen. she has assumed the role of global center of that central banker in the last two meetings, indicating global, not just domestic risk markets, are critical. to me while t

the weak dollar leads to strong oil prices, and vice versa, so i think the interesting dynamic is dovish -- it is far more than it was in january and it became so because of the turmoil because by week oil prices. i think what we are seeing today, that probably makes the fed even more dovish, even more cautious about any kind of feed through that is going to take place to markets. clearly, you see what happened this morning, but to tom's point, we have not had a sustained tumble, we have actually stabilized. francine: what does this mean for yen? high and it17 month looks like it is not going anywhere. simon: japan is the real loser of this game. yes, the fact that they are actually a producer and importer. the lower oil price tends to be better for them, but if you also have a fed that emerges a little more dovish, and you have more pressure on dollar-yen. tom: this came up over the weekend. we talked foreign exchange. when you look at that, the euro came up. where does mario draghi want the euro? does he want a parity euro or a 120 euro? simon: he would probably prefer parity to 120. w

they will remain dovish until proven otherwise.more important to your market, the fed decision today or the bank of japan's decision? george: i would argue the bank of japan. global rates have been so highly correlated, not just with oil but amongst themselves. global rates is what have -- -- if we have a positive shift, if the bank of japan can tweak the message is delivered in q1 and provide more of a positive environment going forward, i think people that are hiding in bonds will jump out of is truend i think that for japanese investors as well as u.s. investors which are out on the yield curve. if inflation does actually end up being more real and people are worried, inflation will start to impact long-term bonds. we are at a critical juncture where the fed is important for how they tee up future policy. but the boj could shift things going into june. there is a lot of positive catalyst coming from stimulus. we will continue the discussion over on bloomberg radio. george goncalves, thank you very much. we will continue our conv

i agree the meeting could be interpreted as either dovish or hawkish.tainly the weak dollar environment most of this year after a strong dollar environment the previous two years. betty: indeed. it's been puzzling since the december rate hike we have seen the dollar weaken considerably. and given that, we were speaking earlier with robert kaplan, the dallas fed president, who wouldn't speak specifically about the dollar's impact, but really on the economy, which he thinks is going to improve through the second half of the year. eric, i want to you hear what he said about that. >> we need to reconcile g.d.p. data with job data. that's going to happen one of two ways. either the job data is going to get weaker, or more likely, g.d.p. is going to get stronger. i'm expecting the latter. and i think if that happens, i personally will be moving toward advocating some removal of accommodations sooner rather than later. betty: is that in your forecast too? eric: yes, i think g.d.p. has been weak in the first quarter, then rebounded somewhat. people don't fn the

we had a very dovish chair yellen. valentin: that took quite a few people by surprise.he fact she did it twice. it feels like she may be not necessarily representing the overall view of the fomc. minutes could highlight there was a range of views in march. esther george did vote for a yellen the same time view.aded her the minutes will provide more details about where the big difference lies. francine: valentin marinov there, thank you very much. stay with the pulse. 20 more coming your way plenty more coming your way including glencore. biggestils, plus the ever health care deal. why it is said to be dead in the water. trump's defeat in wisconsin. ♪ francine: this is the pulse. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: shares and air france have fallen sharply in paris trade after the surprise the parts are of ceo after three years in the job. his departure leaves europe's largest airline with out a leader as it tries to push through cost cuts. when the next corporate default weight comes it could hurt investors more than they expect.

we got some impetus yesterday after the fed minutes, which were seen as nicely dovish. let's have a look at the yield on the u.s. ten-year treasury note. we've continued to see pretty low yields the last couple days. no big movement today. 1.734%. >> the show stopper in the last 48 hours, the dollar against the japanese yen, hitting a 17-month low. that is a significantly stronger yen and a weaker u.s. dollar. below 109. this after minutes from last month's fed meeting suggesting they're unlikely to raise interest rates before june. meantime, we'll also get minutes from the latest ecb meeting later this morning. just check out the euro. it's weakening a bit against the dollar. there's been some ecb member comments on the tape. for instance, peter prett saying that growth and employment cannot depend on monetary policy alone, but if the economy should take a turn lower in europe, the ecb has the tools to act. lots of central bank speak. i think the people reason are watching the dollar-yen so closely. look at that move, down 1.3%. it's a read on monetary policy. japan ha

we heard janet yellen speak once since that meeting, more dovish than will be reflected in the minutesiggest problem for investors is that they have moved away from price stability, from full employment, to talking about international factors. concerns aboutng the chinese economy, where the currency is heading, and political dimensions, u.s. , allions, brexit vote those things the fed does paul's on when they do high rate -- hike rates. ,hen we look at market prices those are far too low. at two pointn is 3%, the highest in the cycle, showing things are improving in the u.s. economy and rates do need to move higher. but it be gradual, slow, does not mean it will not happen. i think markets are too focused on that at the moment. angie: what about the rba ahead of tomorrow? similar situation with the rba, the biggest thing we think about when we consider the rba is the currency. it will cause a hindrance to the growth in the global economy, the austrian economy, but the difference is whether it is short-term or persistent. the stronger aussie dollar creates a problem. if it is a sharp mo

we had seen a lot of yen strength in recent days, following the dovish comments from janet yellen, which pushed the dollar lower. now the dollar paring back just nearly 0.2% after that survey. zblshlg >>> well, let's give you a look at how u.s. futures are calling the market today. we have the all-important jobs number ahead. as you can see looking at a bit of softness across the board. predicting just modest losses at this stage, with the s&p called lower by about three points. the dow jones called lower by 19. the nasdaq off by 11. the nasdaq the only major market in the u.s. to miss out of positive territory on the quarter there. we did get a remarkable recovery, especially from the dow jones on that quarter. going back to the biggest comeback since 1933. well, taking a closer look at what investors are waiting on today. the dollar is now holding steady after falling to its lowest level since october. this ahead of the nonfarm payroll report for march, which is set for release at 14:30 cte. dow jones median forecast is looking for an increase of about 213,000 jobs. while strong, that

the fed is very dovish and leading towards a cautious stance, while some of the regions are less dovisha budget micro-economies. new york is booming for what ever reason. maybe they have some of the shale action from pennsylvania. and then we have many recessions throughout the country. richard: yes, it is very much like europe. we have a multi-speed europe. germany is doing much better than some of the other regions. and that is true of the u.s. as well. given the regional distortions and the regional specificities, i think that makes a lot of sense, hans. guy: richard jones, thank you. stay with bloomberg after the break. coming up in a few minutes time. a wide-ranging conversation coming up there with francine. and then, a conversation on luxury with paolo scaroni. withar themes tied up lvmh. the market is taking burberry down to the 1250 level. we are trading down 7%. they have exceeded expectations on the downside. it is unsurprising to see european equity markets very flat this morning. the singapore story is front and center. "the pulse" is up next. ♪ francine: zero appreciation.

a fed that is more dovish. and in ecb that is perhaps more dovish.nwind plays itself out and we see the greek issues becoming more front and center, the dollar could resume its leg higher against the euro. guy: richard jones. it fords and i, that is "on the move. so cook's will berlin blink on debt relief for greece? anothereading for summer of crisis? ? a shortl rally over position in oil increase. saudi arabia backs away. who is afraid of a brexit? about 75% of britons cfos are. we will talk with the referendum means for the city of london. ♪

we've had very dovish comments out of central banks, including the fed and including last tuesday and if you look across markets, melissa, it's not that we're pricing central bank support but we're expecting the fed to hedge support and i don't think that's going to happen and, therefore, i think there's vulnerability to the market on how it perceives central banks. >> when you say sunny side of central bank commentary do you mean dovish, and if that is the case, i mean, if the fed is basically telegraphed that it's going to be on the sidelines for, i don't know, until the back half. year, we could be setting up for, you know, a window of time in which stocks can actually go higher for a few months here. >> reporter: we could if the fed doesn't change signals. the problem is that the fed has been changing signals so go back to december, they hiked rates and told us perhaps we'll get full hikes this year and then the market reactivated negatively and come february they started becoming more dovish and the market liked that. the problem is that when you have a fed that's data dependent

dovish minutes from the fed helping out. also, a strong rally in the crude price.ing by over 5% in new york. helping out the energy players. malaysia has started, flat. singapore with again. tie one coming back after the shocker -- taiwan coming back after the shocker. up.nikkei 225 the asx 200 up as well. it is driving on the back of what we saw in the u.s. session. gas players leading that charge as the crude price rallies in new york. if we look at the main stocks, five out of the six arising, led by beach energy. course, the health-care sector also having a big rally in offshore trade over the allegan-pfizer deal, now off. those int some of australia, up by almost 1%. yen, upr story is that for a fifth session in a row. earlier this week, people calling for 110 by years end. of 1% alreadyrd against the dollar, so we continue to see that yen rally. some pickup coming through in japanese equities in early trade. rishaad: let's get back to one of our top stories. quarter earnings eating estimates for samsung. sales estimates tripling the previous models performanc

her recent speech was extremely dovish, of course.will be interesting to see how the divisions are. that being said, markets have moved towards what has for quite a while been the oxford economics view, namely two hikes this year. we stick to that. betty: how does that make sense, then? economists expect rate hikes. janet yellen is talking like a real dove. how does that make sense? gabriel: even for a real dove, for whom clearly unemployment is the big traumatic issue, if you want, unemployment continues to fall. the participation rate is edging up. pay is edging up. is not blooming as we would like but doing reasonably well. withdrawalcontinued of accommodative policy is the right thing to do. janet yellen is not stupid. she approaches things in a different way, but she's not stupid and she knows it takes a long time for monetary policy to work, and even the dovish central bank manager may need to take some steps towards tightening or less loosening. central bank governor that has been in the headlines is the swedish central bank ma

yellen doubling down on the dovishness.y were thinking that the other central bankers had come out and undermined what yellen initially said about being more hawkish. the opposite was true. the market was surprised and it ended up being a positive. the rates hikes, there may only be one this year. there probably will not be one in april. people were thinking now is a good time to continue to get back in stock. alix: there seems to be a split at least in the language coming out of the fed. what is your take on that? >> there could be communication challenges. they are openly communicative. forwardwill see going is more of a narrowing and. they are being a little too tentative. it is a risk being too tentative. the u.s. economy is stronger than yellen is giving credit for. >> metlife winning a big victory against the u.s. government. it had labeled it too big to fail, one of only four banks to get that designation. they have been battling that name in court over the last couple of years. a court ruled it metlife's favor. you

have a dovish outlook, two and a half figures higher from when they moved in march.is the good. i think the bad is going to be the fed. no one is expecting anything. the risk is to the upside if they come out with a hawkish statement, but given the key event risks around june, july, briggs it being the main one, you can assume it will be a neutral to dovish statement if anything at all. the ugly is the boj. i think the boj is divided where they're going to move are not -- whether they are going to move are not. shery: how much is enough stimulus at this point? it is difficult for the boj at the moment. how do they satisfy the market. this is the key question that not only everyone is asking themselves, but also the boj. as you and your viewers know, when they move for qe3, january 29, dollar-yen was 118 before they moved. we had that quick spike up, and we are obviously a lot lower. we were won 12 this morning, so significantly lower, and i think it is a sign of qe fatigue that we have been talking about for a while that is showing its phase come so the boj is thinki

dovish members of the federal reserve.s the dollar misplaced at the moment? isk: after the fact, who best placed to reach their target to match their inflation rate? jeremy: i would have to say the boe. is arisk around brexit blanket smothering everything at the minute. nobody is talking about interest rate rise. i know some people think if we pass the referendum that expectations move to 2020 to the early part of 2018. the national living wage will have a possible effect on inflation and in which expectations moving forward -- inflation expectations moving forward. those are only current situations that point to a move higher. mark: always good to see you. thank you. jeremy cook. still ahead on the european close, many energy companies were crushed by last year's once in oil prices. one large group of largely surge.us traders saw a who were they at how much money do they make? that is next. ♪ live from new york and london, i am betty liu. mark: i am mark barton. this is the european close. time for the bloomberg business

the federalnder: reserve goes dovish. the ecb, you know where they are -- they are quite dovish. carol: right. mr. morganlander: then you have the news that china is try to stabilize their currency and have a modest fiscal response. the commodities complex across the board goes higher. equity markets go higher. then, of course, credits has to behave somewhat. ok? we are expecting that the federal reserve will slowly raise rates. we think they are going to signal a rate rise perhaps in june. they will talk about it. after the election, that is when they will raise rates. carol: so, december? mr. morganlander: december. that is when you will start to see an unwinding of the trading. carol: interesting. it sounds agree will be talking about the topic for quite some time. mr. morganlander: elliott, a few moments. -- oh, yeah, a few more months. carol: chad morgan tuck, thank you. -- chad morganlander, thank you. coming, mcdonald's gaining momentum after a strong report. where is the fast food chain gaining growth question mark we will look at that. microsoft is down big today. are th

our next guest says the market has been to dovish. -- too dovish.y served as the director of financial stability, market monitoring at the new york fed. that is quite a former title. expectations are pretty low this that meeting, almost no one is expecting any sort of rate hike. what will people be watching out for? >> no one is looking for a rate hike, so people will be looking at how are they assessing the state of the economy right now, because that will help them decide in june whether they go. you have a meeting coming up after april and the need to start to signal that. we don't think in this statement, they will actually signal any movement in june, but they mark -- they might start to suggest that the economic outlook has improved, that inflation is stabilizing and that the headwinds have abated. the might be a sense that june is on the table. what will be interesting is after the statement, how going towards june they start to work this idea that they want to prepare the market for a potential hike. >> to your point about how we have seen s

was this a hawkish or dovish statement? dominic: we think it was dovish. expectation was that they could set themselves up or height. they clearly did not do that. i think the more subtle reading of it was that the committee was getting quite comfortable that they had underpinned the risk access recovery since the last meeting. so that is important. it, i thinkitoring because there are so happy and pleased with what they have achieved over the last few months. and they did not want to give that away. unlikely, itso should be banished from your mind. looking at the markets today, we saw a rally in the s&p afterward, but not strong either way. anything else in the announcement that struck you, or boring asexpected and most people thought it was going to be? there were a few things on the defense. but the hidden thing and there is the real yields reacted. they had risen quite a bit, recently, and came down. a lot of focus on the doj. all, there could have been a terrible reaction, have they done the wrong thing. all, after the doj, people are more confident r

in fact i think we're much too dovish. i do.ink they will raise rates twice, june and december of this year. i think it will be a little bit of a headwind because we're all so overly dovish. think he raise rates but no recession. liz: echoing what yellen said. economy is on solid footing. i would say a stubbed toe here and there but solid footing. lovely to see you. >> thank you. liz: larry shover, one of our favorite traders, sfc alternatives. as close kicks in what a week of wary trading. [closing bell rings] the worst week since february. s&p, barely 2 1/2 points above positive territory for the year. a win is a win. david asman, melissa francis after the bell. have a great weekend. melissa: stocks ending the day slightly higher. dow and s&p 500 both ending the week down 1.4%. worst week since february. i'm melissa francis. david: i'm david asman. this is "after the bell." at this hour, a press conference just wrapping in belgium. major developments in the hunt for terror suspects linked to the paris and belgium attacks. seve

the smashgt making it dovish. the dow and s&p 500 is at the highs. the dow up is 60.urn now to bill gross of janice. all right, bill, before we get to some investing ideas and thoughts, do you agree with the discussion we just had which is that while they'll never come out and say it explicitly, the federal reserve behind closed doors is talking about a potential british exit from the eu and is worried enough to keep things on hold in june? >> i don't think so. not that it's not important. i think that the fed is focused on global market conditions to the extent that brexit affects. that i think what they have in the radar are the employment numbers as opposed to real economic growth. this quarter for almost the second quarter in a row were close to the flat line. the jobs market is doing better. so, you know, as long as jobs keep going at 200,000, you know, a month, i think that the fed is well on its way to a june hike. >> what i like you about, bill, you've thrown your hands up at the fed as well. you're outperforming most peers because you look around the world. y

if you are an investor, you are looking at a dovish fed.vestors are reacting to these macro fact or's? be.t: it could i think more so is the fact they are turning around the sales, that they are starting to gain market share back and get aggressive with price point and the fact that they have scaled enables them to source projects cheaply. equipped tos best do well in this type of environment. scarlet: thank you so much. as far as the burger wars are concerned, shake shack wins in my book. alix: julie hyman has the latest on stocks moving on analyst calls. julie: let's start with energy and talk about valero. credit squeeze downgrading valero. say the stock has factored in the earnings weakness for the quarter. one factor is the difference between crude oil and the refine products. there's a structural concern in diesel cracks that might continue for some time. the main reason to sell refiner holdings is not necessarily the seasonal trade, but the likelihood of recession and valero shares are pulling back. bm oh capital is upgrading that on

while the fed looks dovish, my sense it is will stabilize.ices stabilize, the fed might consider coming in and tighten again, that would give support to the dollar. >> alison deans, thank you for joining us. we've only got about a minute left. i want to highlight a few key things to watch today and indeed the week ahead. what are you watching, seema. >> optimism, instead of pessimism seems to be on the rise. preeconomic reports inflation overnight trade and gdp will be watched. those numbers go to the upside, maybe this is a sign of a turnaround. >> indeed. china's market up this morning. nikkei is down. that's kind of the theme the last couple weeks as well. the main thing i'll be watching today is alcoa, kicking up earnings season. i think earnings is go to be absolutely key. as we started to tread waters in the last weeks there's been an lack of conviction. alcoa later today, later on in the week, banks earnings and jpmorgan on wednesday. on the facebook question, we asked will earnings steer stocks this week? 66% said yes. let's get a loo