dr. clemens? dr. clemens: thanks, sarah. what i'm going to be talking about is -- i guess i need to -- just the down arrow. from the fiscal policy standpoint, a framework for fiscal policy for oil exportin g report. it will give us a overall fiscal picture for not only the world as a whole and here what we're going to focus on is the oil producers. what kind of fiscal situation do they face. let's say for the next five years or so. so in terms of the structure of the presentation, i'll first talk prescriptive. about these macro fiscal developments, what we see in the data in then talk about even looking backwards a bit, the volatility and uncertainty facing oil producers. and then more prescriptive. what do you think needs to be done for a sound and sustainable growth and lt'll wra ip on -- and then just a wrap up on the conclusions. i want to get a sense of how are the oil producers doing versus everyone else. here on the left-hand side, this is looking at the overall fiscal balances for countries. you can see the red line

dr. benedict clemens from the imf. benedict is the division chief for expenditure, policy division and fiscal affairs department at the -- at the imf and we're very pleased to have him here today to talk about the menu of reform options that the imf thinks about when considering revenue dependent oil-producing economies and the ways in which they can adjust and respond to a low oil price environment both in the near term and over time. so, he's going to set the stage by providing a little bit of the way that they're thinking about the current -- the current environment and the options before different countries and then we've got a really excellent panel. we're going to start with a colleague here at csis who is a senior fellow and deputy director here. he's an international renowned expert on the maghreb but much further into the region as well and a darn good colleague at that. and then we're going to go to aaron sein. aaron has been here before. he's a financial crimes lawyer and investigator working as a senior gov

dr. craig clemens. >> the last two years the team deployed 14 wildfires. >> including the rag fire whichast summer. the team travels to real events and sets experimental ones all to boost their understanding of weather impacts on behavior. >> we can scan the fire region with the radar and retrieve the wind speeds and the actually rate of the spread of the fire. >> flee stocked this truck carries a mobile doppler radar unit to collect 3-d samples of the wind and scanning temperature and humidity. on this may afternoon there was no fire to study, the team drove 15 minutes to sample brush at a specific spot. >> already getting grass fires. >> oh, yeah. >> for about a month. >> this is the site on blackberry hill and call fire washes it closely. >> i'm standing up here surrounded by a lot of brush. right here we have dead material and next to it we have new growth. over june, july and august this will dry out rapidly so even the strongest el nino on record cannot wipe out the peek of our fire season. >> those are all the basic measurements we need. >> chris is a grad wait research assistant

joining us now steve clemens and john fund, columnist for the "national review" john, so imagine yourself in the room with drssinger and candidate donald trump. here is someone who has said could use nuclear weapons in the middle east, it's okay with me if japan gets nuclear weapons so we don't have to spend so much money defending areas of the world like japan, that he's going to sit down with north korea and on and on and on. what would dr. kissinger have said? >> well, dr. kissinger knows donald trump and if you know donald trump you know that if you don't like something he says, wait five minutes, he'll say something different and if you do like something he says, wait five minutes, he'll say something different. donald trump has now said, for example, on the muslim ban to the united states "it was only a suggestion. i changed my mind. i change my mind all the time." so i think if donald trump was smart, he just listened to dr. kissinger, maybe took notes. if he wasn't smart he talked a great deal. >> steve, give me you're -- what you would guess henry kissinger in an hour with donald trump would say to