dr. henry kaufman, dr. doom. i will go with henry. >> thank you. neil: that ever bug you the dr.thing? >> no. what would bug me really, if i had something that was negative, and turned out wrong. that would -- neil: wasn't always doom and gloom. >> no. neil: you famously predicted the turn around that would be wind at ronald reagan's back in '82. some of the headlines were showing back in the good old days, doctor, you were like frankenstein almost. >> in august of '82, as a result of that prediction we had the biggest rally in the bond and stock market in the entire postwar period. neil: right. we should say, back in the '70s, before interest rates took off and inflation would be a problem, you saw the inflation wave to come and how high interest rates would go. a lot of people laughed at you talking about double-digit rates and all. then it happened. do you see anything like that now over the horizon? everyone seems to feel rates are going up right now? anything like that? >> no. i don't think we're going to return to a prime loan rate of 21.5% and long government bonds at 15%.

dr. kaufman? henry should be a greater management structure in a very big organization. what he got wrong, from my perspective, is that financial institutions should have only limited entrepreneurial drive. they have to balance that out with their fiduciary responsibilities, which he could not manage correctly. tom: he was a learning curve. many others as well. you were knee-deep in this. what was the number one mistake in the servitude of bankers that got us into this unholy 2007 mess? henry: they could no manage risks correctly. they could manage a very complex financial institution and still come out with reasonable behavior, good performance, and satisfy all of their constituents. that is what they got wrong. tom: that would be called the black swans out there. once in a generation, a black swan seems to wander by every number of years. the present value of our financial history. what do you mean by that? henry: well, one of the great problems which we have today is that most leaders in financial in