dr. kahl? >> thanks to the world affairs council and thank you all for being inside on such a nice night. so thanks for being here. so in my brif remarks, i want to basically advance five main points. the first point i will make is that the iranian nuclear threat is certainly growing but it's not yet imminent. so it's premature to talk about military action at this point. u.s. and israeli intelligence officials agree that it would take iran at least a year from the time in which its supreme leader ayatollah ali ali khomeini makes the decision to go for a bomb, it would take at least a year for them to produce a crude testable device. it kolt a year total to generate a crude device and it would take several years for them to create a device so fphisticated enougho be put on the tip of a missile. although there's no doubt iran is positioning itself to have the capability to make this decision, u.s. intelligence officials have, testified that there's no evidence that the supreme leader has actuall

my question is dr. kahl said one of your points was that in 60 years there have only been nine countries that violated -- we've only gone nuclear, nine countries have gone nuclear. we have not only the three mentions thatty of you have mentioned, saudi arabia, but also nigeria, bahrain, have all announced military programs. pakistan is building two more heavy water processing plants, a second chemical processing plant. the nine countries within the context of the u.s.-soviet competition now are within the context of the middle east and the sunni/shi'a ferocity. my question is doesn't that change the likelihood of more countries getting nukes? >> it could. we have to be very careful. one of the countries you mentioned was the uae. we should hope every country develops their nuclear program the way the uae has. they've given up the right to domestic enrichment. there's no responsibility for proliferation as long as it sticks to that agreement. a lot of countries have nuclear programs. it's allowed under the np

dr. colin kahl, who is also a senior fellow at the center for new american security. when compared arguing that time is running out to stop program and that a military strike is less risky is dr. matthew kroenig, an assistant professor at the georgetown university department of government. he is also the author of exporting the bomb, the spread of nuclear weapons. he is also the council on the fellow. there will be making the opening statements, followed by some questions and answers on the sanctions, and you will also have the opportunity to ask questions before we wrap up with closing statements. i want to begin with you, dr. matthew kroenig. >> thank you very much for that introduction. it is a pleasure to be here. i think many of us would agree that iran's rapidly advancing nuclear program poses perhaps the greatest emerging challenge to the country, and deciding on how to deal with it is the most important issue facing the united states government now. as i see it, they're all in three ways this issue will be resolved. first, a diplomatic settlement, second, acqui