dr. shiller: doom and gloom is too strong a word.sing is a very strong-willed effect because housing is held more broadly than stocks are, and it is not held in a retirement portfolio. people see it, and they are very aware of these house price movements, so i think it is possible that there could be weakness coming this fall when the seasonal pattern no longer posts home prices. if the fed should raise interest rates, it might be a kind of a signal that the market is headed down, and so there could be a change in confidence. we have not seen it yet, though. caroline: this morning, we have gotten fresh data out of the european area. adding to signs that the ever of economic outlook has deteriorated. lackluster. a surprise? paul: not massively. oil prices lingering on. the important point about inflation, when we are looking at inflation is and should not be sort of dazzled by the decline in the energy price. look at the underlying trend. in some countries in europe, and germany, for example, we have got some signs coming through ther