a 30 point deficit, as the dracts had in 2010 in their wipeout election for the g.o.p.? he would still get elected in the that scenario if he maintains that roughly 47% support level from white college graduates. so he can sustain a wipeout among the white working class provided he maintains his white college graduate vote. now, what if that vote falls as well for obama, which may indeed happen, although he's looking pretty decent. our calculations are that he could do as badly among white college graduates as john kerry did in 2004, eight years back from 2012 when the demographics were a little different. he could do as badly as kerry did, lose the white working class by 23 points, lose college graduates by 11 points and still win the popular vote by 50-48. so that's a pretty reasonable target for obama, of course a target he might not be able to reach depending on how the campaign works out. so that's the national situation. now, as we all know, the national situation is not how presidential elections are decided. we only have to go back to 2001 to see there are instan