what will mario draghi unveil at today's meeting? the ecb is set to announce a plan to buy 50 billion euros of bonds per month when it meets later today. the proposal sent shares in both europe and the u.s. higher. according to the newspaper, the central bank bond buying will last for at least one year. however other reports suggest the program won't end until late 2016. the ecb has declined to comment on the speculation but we're seeing stocks move higher on that report. now the canadian dollar is hovering near a six year low after the bank of canada became the latest central bank to surprise markets with a rate cut. they lowered the rate by a quarter of a point in response to the sharp drop in the price of oil. they suffered the biggest one day drop since november of 2011. i'll send it back to you julia. i know you're joined by a guest that can talk more about this move in currency given the decline in oil prices. >> absolutely. i'm joined by ron mott. i want to come back to the canadian economy and talk to you about hedge funds gi

>> a day of reckonning for draghi on deflation. euro-zone figures are expected to show the first decline in consumer prices in five years. they brace for the next move by the e.c.b.. >> merkel's offer to cameron. a compromise on immigration to appease britain's euro skeptics. >> we'll be speaking live to the c.e.o. of supermarkets sainsburies on trade figures. hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> i'm anne aedwards. the euro has been hitting new lows. the reason, the threat of deflation in the euro-zone amid speculation that the european central bank president path draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month. >> his attention will be focused on some very important data. inflation figures. those figures might edge the european central bank closer to a program of large scale government bond purchases. >> it is expected to show the first annual decline in consumer prices in five years. with oil prices staying low, it could show a slump in growth. the e.c.b. moving towards full blown quantitative easing. >

as mario draghi announced this stimulus. that stimulus, they are going to be buying sovereign debt. you have an automatic buyer, a guaranteed buyer. now we are going to have the same situation in europe. >>♪ >> we are back with lee cooperman. i am going to get to the point. you see it as fair valuation. that means there is some right picking here in the market. we had sam on yesterday who said his big bet was rich picking and some good companies. >> we came into 2014 thinking what was going on in the middle east we got hit. >> did you fall? >> we reduced modestly. a lot of the smart people like sam will be looking for credit. going back to august of last year, about 17% of the high yield index are credits. they have collapsed with the price of oil. there is some interesting paper being acquired by --. you will get a spin out company. we are creating it for near zero. we continue to buy that one. >> if you are a betting man, and i know you are, do you think oil will go up this year? >> i do not think anyone knows where oil is

despite telegraphing the move for us draghi managed to surprise markets. the euro fell to an 11 year low and italian ten year bond yields dropped 16 basis points to 1.6%. stocks soared around the world but there's skepticism. if draghi and ecb are out front, it's the first time since the financial crisis began. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> from athens greece davos switzerland, and london england, we begin in frankfurt, germany, with annette. >> reporter: they have announced the quantitateyate easing program, meant to spur inflation in negative territory and also to have the euro zone in its economic recovery. the volume was a little bit more and also but positive heard from the european central bank today is that there is a notion of open endedness in that program, so that means it could run longer than september 2016. for over all, it's hard to surprise the european central bank even though critics are saying quantitative easing will not work as well in the united states but euro zone banks are more important to the finance the ec

draghi. draghi preview the plan for her. merkel has given tacit blessing.hat bundesbank president young's vitamin and others will do to signal if they are opposed to the size and the scope of asset purchases. how do they signal that? a simple dissent talk of resignation, do they stay on board? the question i have, does mario draghi want full consensus? in december he said he did not need full consensus. if consensus is the goal, we might see qe a little bit more hemmed in than if he had had a few dissensions. the first thing i will look for, were there dissensions or is this unanimous? unanimous might not be the way qualitative easing would be the way some, especially in davos would like to see it. >> i've always read between the lines that he germans and presently -- implicitly gave a court. -- implicitly gave accord. germany will suffer as much as richer countries. >> you can make the argument that germans are talking about how negative qe could be and how it could violate the eu treaty. they have funneled it in a way to suit their interest and their poli

markets moving on draghi's news

decision day for draghi.e a qe program this afternoon that could involve $1 trillion worth of sovereign bond of buying. the top questions, how big will of the program will? what will be the case and how long will it run for? the devil is always in the details. will buy the bones? -- a bonds? bloomberg tv will how full coverage of the press conference at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. in a few minutes, we will get to davos for the easy money hama with some of the most prominent names in the business world. first, the markets. let's check in with caroline hyde at the touch screen. >> let's check in at where the optimism is. 5.5 hours to go will we get a full scale sovereign bond of buying? could it be up to $1 billion to avoid deflation here in europe? to stimulate the economy? u.k. trading day little higher on the optimism. the honest is if it will be individual to do the buying? will it work? we will speak to chairman at ubs.

in light of the announcements from mario draghi. the euro down by 2%.owest level against the dollar cents december 18 -- since december 18, 2003. it has fallen 6% versus the dollar permit 7% in the last 12 months against the u.s. currency. analysts forecast it will end at $1.15. that could shift after they moved by the ec be. -- ecb. revising their forecast to $1.15. still, a minority predicting the euro will fall to parody as -- parity. brown brothers harriman are some of the only analysts that agree the exchange rate will fall to that level by the end of next year. one group says the euro may achieve parity. will the forecasts change in light of what happened yesterday? time will tell. there is zero against the dollar -- bureau against the dollar. >> the election in greece is in its final stretch. the next government must decide against extending the bailout program. voters have been attracted to their opposition to the bailout well creditors have been spooked by the locations of the potential victory. the president of yemen and his government has qui

so european central bank president mario draghi has decided to launch quantitative easing. he says the bank will buy government bonds and other assets from eurozone's member nations. he unveiled the plans after members discussed monetary policy for the euro. the bank plans to buy six billion dollars worth of assets every month, about $68 billion, and it includes investment grade bonds. it will start in march and continue to the end of march 2016. >> these factors should strengthen demand increase capacity utilization and support money and credit growth and thereby contribute to a return of inflation rates towards 2%. >> it is the first time ecb policy makers have gone down the road of quantitative easing. their counterparts in japan and the u.s. have taken similar steps. ecb officials want to revive the eurozone economy. they will have to decide how many government bonds to buy from which countries. they also decided to keep the ecb key interest rate at 0.05%, which is an all-time low. >>> most european leaders support draghi's decision. nhk world's tim west has more from d

mario draghi is going big all in. the ecb president announced a $2.3 trillion asset purchase plan, better known as qe. bigger than expected. investors have responded by selling off the euro. hans nichols was at the news conference in frankfurt, germany. you have to explain this to us. this is a massive number. we were saying what about 500 million -- billion? i'm having a -- like the movie with dr. evil. and austin powers. >> here is what we know. here is what mario draghi just said in frankfurt. remarkable in so many levels. 60 billion euros a month through december of 2016. they get you up to 1.1 trillion euros for all asset back securities. and crucially, it includes it sovereign debt. here are the limits. 25% of each issue no more than 33% of each issue r. in terms of losses and risk sharing, there are some complications -- 20% of the new assets, there will be risk sharing with them. when he was talking about the economy deflation, he was not overly optimistic. certainly was not brimming with optimism. >> economic

>> judgment day for mario draghi . and the european central bank's next move on stimulus could hang on their word. europe's growth will lack behind the u.s. this year. that is the latest projection from the world bank as it cuts its outlook for global expansion. >> and copper plunging again. the commodity route deepens. ♪ >> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> i'm anna edwards. >> i'm manus cranny. >> his fate lies in the european court of justice and his opinion on omt or outright monetary transaction. >> the ecb first introduced the concept in 2012. enabling purchases of sovereign debt in secondary markets. they are considering whether they convene eu law. this meaning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the court opinion is nonbinding. if it goes against omt, mario draghi might wind his options on easing in the euro zone are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb president. for more, hans nichols has traveled. you are back in berlin. this opinion really is quite important for him and the f

what will mario draghi unveil? will it be the bond buying program at this point the market is expecting but mario draghi in the past has overpromised and underdelivered. >> the question is why do we still need stimulus six years on from the crisis? why so much focus as far as central banks and their maneuvers are concerned. we'll be talking about the prospect of qe. the global disinflationary environment another crucial issue but the oil price shift we've seen over the last four to six months another crucial issue. we have a great guest line-up coming up on worldwide exchange. we'll be talking italian banks. carlo hessina. we'll be talking to the ceo of middle east, of europe and the americas for standard charters. talking about that business too. the secretary central he cries go structural. i look at asset prices and say where's the incentive. and also david harding. what we have seen from hedge funds has been a real struggle. what does that mean for the situation going forward? i did mention italy of course. let

in lockstep with draghi? bundesbank -- >> i think they and the ecb share a common goal. there is a principled disagreement over means toward that end. tensely the effectiveness of qe. a big qe program probably will not do a lot to boost inflation this year, but it may prevent inflation and falling. it may anchor inflation expectations. >> aren't we just pushing on a string. looking adding negative 5-year note. what does it do for mario draghi? >> an excellent point. all the monetary policy can do and all that he can do is buy time. he has bought more time than many of us thought he could. europe challenges are not monetary. interest rates are low in europe . there challenges our productivity, competitiveness, and fiscal. he is buying time, masterfully. >> all we hear is the need for structural reform. have you seen anything in europe that looks or smells like structural reform? >> the spanish have done structural reform. structural reform in italy has been disappointing. nonexistent in france. the big countri

>> green light for draghi. the european court of justice says the lmt bond buying program is in principle in line with the eu treaty. this clearing the way for qe. >> dr. copper gets a cold. the commodity follows oil. >> and, activism in europe area does it work weston mark we are going to ask bill ackman. good morning, everybody. you are watching "the pulse." i'm guy johnson. >> i'm francine lacqua. we are getting breaking news out of italy. possible qe next week in terms of that inflation figure that is due out any second. >> we've already had a lot of macro news affecting the euro this morning. though it actually hasn't affected the euro in terms of where the currency is trading. a little relief for mario draghi. the european court of justice has given a favorable opinion on outright monetary transactions, seen as a precursor to the qe plan that many people believe draghi will announce next week. >> the court has said the omt plan is legal in principle. what can you tell us about this opinion? it seems like

mario draghi has a real tricky problem. he has issues related to being able to signal the central bank's intentions. 19 central banks, all of the points of views, all of the political constraints. i think he has no choice but to be little bit less clear. he does not know what he will be able to do. >> it seems mario draghi has been very clear. he has preempted the ecb moves by being strong vocally. the markets have believed him so far. >> read what he says carefully, lots of conditionality. if we review, we may reconsider. one of the things we may reconsider would be sovereign bonds. only a certain amount of ways to get there. whatever it takes. the strongest tool in his arsenal, given the political realities he faces is the ability to be able to scare the market down. what i'm expecting thursday is we will probably not get the huge purchase of bonds the market is looking for. that will remain dangling in the future as a possibility. we might see esf the -- we could see foreign exchange added to the mess. >> we will have pl

everybody's bank bank drop the druggie, -- mario draghi mario draghi, yellen, yellen. >> you have toivity growth. you're right, we are confusing things. a lot of the flight to quality is people converging on reality. it is being driven by excessive fear, excessive risk aversion but nothing like what we saw in 2008 and 2009. focus on the real economy. focus on a china that has only slowed a little. focus on the u.s. that is growing without have a housing bubble. people should not get too whacked out. >> the virgins is all the word. -- divergence is all the word. do you have something to keep you away from the three and four standard deviation moves away? >> went into, yes, but three and four, no. -- one and two, yes, but three and four, no. if the u.s. focuses too much on growth and central-bank policies and every thing else in the rich world, then the dollar shoots up. and if the dollar shoots up a lot, then you get a breakdown in trade talks and certain sectors of the u.s. economy. to me, that is a one started -- one standard deviation move. i worry about the forecast. >> we talk ab

mario draghi expected to unveil a 550 billion euro qe program this week. paul gordon joins us from frankfurt. is this all but inevitable now? i have seen the polls, and it looks like expectations are high. >> they are stellar according to one economist we spoke to. you can pretty much take it there is going to be some form of qe this week. there will still be discussion between now and thursday but it looks at the moment inevitable because the market expects something like that. one of the characteristics attributed to mario draghi rightly or wrongly is that he is aware that disappointing the markets when the economy is as fragile as it is is very dangerous. we are looking at something like 550 billion euros. >> let's say we get 550 thursday. i guess the bigger one could be the nuance between the headline. i think the major haggling seems to be around risk. what are the potential outcomes and what do they mean for the market? >> that is key. the key issue remains how do you allocate the risk how do you limit the risk. the options come down to how do you bu

that is a great concern for draghi and his team. quite clearly the un-anchoring of inflation expectations is something they are watching closely. one clear way to gauge this is the bond market. if we have negative interest rates, some of the capital that is intended, that is part of the intention of the monetary policy stance, they will try to look for different destinations. they will try to invest in something else. while this is intended this carries the risk of further misallocation of further capital in some areas where you might see bubbles developing and that's the same risk switzerland is facing warehouse prices have been growing faster than any other developed economy in real terms. there is no cheap win. central banks have to play an important role in recovery from the crisis. it's important that no complacency sets in. it contributes to recovery of growth. i think this is the ultimate test. the ecb can set the scene that can open the window of opportunity, but they cannot solve the problem. it depends on what governments

draghi and the germans in particular, are terrified of deflation. draghi and greece have it easy.greece can prove austerity led -- now deflation is knocking on the german doorstep. >> how long, simon, will it take for the germans to realize they are wrong, if that is the case? >> they would take a higher moral ground. the austerity that any fruits that have been born, i think that is the rays of the finance minister last week in greece, are a result of the policies they pushed. at the same time you are seeing inflation in germany at a five-year low. there is a limit as how much they like inflation to fall. perhaps now more than the last year the opposition to qe may not be as great as it once was. >> simon kennedy in london our chief international correspondent, and oppenheimer funds allessio. >> what are the chances of a deal going through? >> a company that makes the chips and gadgets you use every day. we talk to the ceo of broadcom. ♪ >> welcome back to "market makers" i am stephanie ruhle. aol and verizon. verizon approach to the internet pioneer about a joint venture or acqu

mario draghi firing this latest shot.two at goldman sachs talking about it overnight at davos. how does that end? and what are the implications of that kind of heightened risk for equity investors? >> well so far it is a war, but it's being played look a chess match. that laid back sur reason bralcerebral attitude will disappear. someone will get the currency in place to cause pain to somebody else. >> we're already having pain in the u.s. with the stronger dollar. so many different companies. >> we have discomfort we don't have pain. when we get to pain you'll see. >> it's more than that isn't it? if the foreign exchange levels are falling for japan and europe, everything that comes out of the japan and europe is falling in value. that's massive waves of deflation that at the very least are lapping at shores of this country. you can argue the stock market will still ride through, and it's a very strong economy but we should acknowledge that's the effect of what's happening. and it's only going to get worse. those waves o

mario draghi sees new risk of deflation. china's challenges in the new year, pollution and slowing economy are just two of them. colleges ramp up their bids for your charitable giving. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live from our world headquarters in new york, it is friday january 2015. tom keene is off for the day. time for our top headlines. >> first trading day of the year, the euro hit a 4.5 year low against the dollar. it fell to less than $1.21 after mario draghi said the bank may increase his stimulus. he says they're still a risk of deflation in the euro area. that sent italian and spanish bond yields falling. now at a record low. one of the most eloquent speakers of his time, at democrat made the case for the parties liberal wing. former new york governor mario cuomo died yesterday, he was 82. he served as three terms as governor. his speech propelled him into the national spotlight. he was considered elected presidential candidate in 1988 and again in 1992. each time, he refused to run. he bowed o

>> did mario draghi embolden risktakers today?> you will start to see some kind of increase in risk-taking. the fact that there has not been more risk-taking in the corporate sector is surprising. if this low right -- low rate environment persists, why wouldn't that be the environment risktakers want? you have withdrawals from a lot of high yield bonds. it shows how cap located this is. -- complicated this is. >> the central bank does something like this volatility is supposed to be suppressed. it is not. >> it is the other way around. thanks to the swiss national bank -- they really induce a lot of hedge fund closures hundred of millions of dollars of losses. we don't know of the fallout from this. you have treasury yields high volatility rising to the highest level since october 15 when the world went haywire. there has been more volatility introduced by the movement of the stimulus program. which a lot of people do not understand the applications. >> tell the average investor why they should care about volatility. >> volatility

mario draghi announced this decision at about 7:45 a.m. eastern time.ress conference at 8:30 a.m. eastern time where he then answers more detailed questions on this. the formal announcement again comes tomorrow morning from frankfurt. once again, the officials asked not to be identified but the latest numbers we are getting here is 50 billion euros a month of quantitative easing that is sovereign bond buying a month through 2016 that would not begin until march, betty. >> thank you so much. we will see if that holds through tomorrow. olivia sterns joining us now who of course has been following a lot on the european central bank. she used to be based in london. olivia, we just talked to larry summers who said look, it is necessary, there is deflationary risk in the eurozone, it is necessary for the ecb to come out with quantitative easing. the question is how much and how long. >> everybody is worried that europe is rapidly going to become japan, everybody is worried that the european economy is going into this sort of stagnation phase with no growth an

thanks for marriott draghi. big moves in oil. sad news on the back of the death of the king of saudi arabia. he lived to a grand old age. how it is trading on the day. up pops up 2%. questions about whether his brother will continue with his predecessor's policies. also, will they keep their oil minister? big questions but oil markets are getting a boost on the back of the saudi arabia's king abdulla's passing. this is about ecb returning. borrowing costs driving down. italy down. 1.46% italy is looking to borrow on the 10-year. spain able to access the market at 1.3%. germany still less than half a percent. bond markets getting a push high er. a quick look at a few stocks this morning. we have got m&a. it is all about telecom. at least they find a buyer for 02. 10.25 billion pounds. talk talk had been faulted as potentially what would be bought. trading higher. wait for premier foods. mr. kipling bisto. fourth quarter triaailing. >> thank you. breaking news on -- for france manufacturing and services. the composite drops below 5

. >> draghi does deliver. stock investors cheer. the 1 trillion qe package as the euro falls below 113. executive board member tells cnbc in an interview the market reaction justifies the bank's action. >> it is encouraging. it shows that the program is credible but it's obviously too early to tell. and what mattered for us was inflation. >> saudi arabia's king abdullah dies at age 90 following weeks of hospitalization for pneumonia. he's immediately replaced by his brother sending oil shares higher. >> telefonica is in talks with hutchison for $15 billion. >> telefonica confirms it's in talk with hutchison to sell it's business for more than $15 billion and it's payday for lloyd blankfein. he will join the crew on squawk box later this morning. you won't want to miss it. >>> manufacturing and purchasing managing index for major european countries have been coming out today. we heard from germany. january pmi falling below 51.7. composite pui 52.2. they cut it at the fastest rate in years. not as bright as initially expected. the eu

it's the only policy cool draghi has.some estimates this program at one trillion worth of bond buying is only going to improve -- lori: hey, keith, i don't have a lot of time because you know we've got our davos coverage as well, but, trent wagner, we saw a big, big decline, three year on the euro versus the dollar. what kind of impact, curious for your take on how this might drive some of the u.s. companies that do so much business overseas, these multi-nationals. >> well, i mean, as far as the drop today in the euro, i would agree with keith. obviously, i think the move today and the announcement of this program is going to affect the euro and the dollar more so than anything else. you know, coming into the meeting today, i thought the chances of him disappointing and underwhelming the markets was more so than beating expectations, so the reaction that we've seen in the dollar and the euro today, the euro to the downside, the dollar to the upside, speaks volumes as to what the market feels as far as the way that he beat

draghi won't say it, but that's the desired effect. it helps exports and boosts economic growth. this is what a currency war looks like. not just europe. denmark, canada, peru switzerland, india, all of the countries' central banks, and the last week alone cut interest rates taking an unprecedented dramatic steps to ease policy whether it's to fight super low inflation, driven by lower oil prices weaken currencies, everyone mentwants a weak currency fuelling growth. countries are in search of it. someone is a loser, and currently, that's the united states. the u.s. dollar at multiyear highs hurting american companies that do a lot of business abroad. everyone from amex johnson and johnson, we saw it in the earnings, expect a lot more of that in the coming weeks. will the u.s. fight back? for the moment, no. the u.s. economy's doing well. the fed says it's not too worried about what's happening overseas and the u.s. dollar. add it all up, stock markets love this currency war. more qe easier policy. in the longer term though as one trader told me sue, that book has not been written

but the banks president mario draghi says this is dangerous. he says there is danger of deflation in the eurozone. his remedy is massive purchase of bonds. >> it maintains control over the design features of the program. the ecb will coordinate the purchases, thereby guarding the single nest of the euro systems monetary policy. >> the bank will buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds every month until september of 2016. that is more than he suggested. >> he has been preparing for this day. now he has followed through. he has shown he has prepared to take action despite the warnings and skepticism from some quarters. >> many of the governing council see it as their duty to stimulate the eurozone economy. >> what they can do is create a basis for growth. but for growth to pick up you need investment. for investment, you need confidence. and for confidence, you need structural reforms. >> it was not a unanimous decision. germany has opposed as quantitative easing because it could reduce the pressure on states to reform their economy. he agrees it woul

draghi has a big group of policymakers. he has to find a consensus. 500 is more in line with the ecb president who can't quite do whatever it takes. >> the aaa element of this it is fascinating given the meetings on the 22nd and the greek election shortly after. it excludes greece effectively from this. there is a political message as well one would assume. >> perhaps. other measures were shown, including buying bonds rated less than aaa. again, this might be a nod to germany. germany remains the euro area's biggest economy. you can't lose germany in a decision from the ecb. you can leave it out -- not leave it out, you can push it aside, but you can't ignore it. they are saying clearly they don't want to expose the ecb to the risk. >> simon, stay with us. we have an ongoing story developing as well. we are just getting reports suggesting that there is a high alert in the last couple of minutes. we are seeing some of the helicopters landing near the town. the town remains in lockdown. we are getting headlines coming through

draghi and the ecb.ight now manufacturing america and global manufacturing america, daniel ammann is president of general motors. there's all the distractions of rebate this in rebate that. let's talk of manufacturing discussion. dan, why are you in davos? >> we are a big global company, operating in every major market of the world. there's a lot going on in the world right now and also also volatility. we want to understand what is going on so we can adjust our business as needed. >> we talked to general electric the other day. there are many major players. it is a cutthroat business. what is the gm process distinction in asia, europe, or frontier markets? >> where we are taking the company now is reorienting our whole mindset around the customer. starting with the customer and having a deep and profound understanding market by market what does each customer need what does each segment of the market need, then working backup the china make sure we're delivering vehicles and services that meet those requ

that is mario draghi. he is opening his mouth like this and letting bits and pieces out. let the bloke be his own man. until that happens, the ecb is just a mouthpiece of germany. i think the perception is dangerous. germany is in real problems at the moment. it's a fantastic country, but with russia so reliant if that actually starts to damage germany quite badly, which i think it might do russia needs $60 a barrel for the oil to balance their books, and if this isn't happening, you get the domino affect. i don't want to hear anymore muttering about quantitative easing. do it. >> no more muttering. >> happy new year david. >> "on the move" is next. we will be focusing on greece. the euro hits a nine-year low. but the more to come. -- plenty more to come. >> good morning. happy new year. welcome. moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to the morning brief. the euro slides. the single currency dropped to levels not seen since 2006. speculation increases the european central bank

and so far, draghi got his wishes. >> we are going to tell by european politics after the break.t to give to your thoughts on sterling. and political risk around sterling. what is more nor -- what is the more negative outcome for struggling in this campaign? there are three possible. you can get some form of coalition. what would make strong negative? >> each of those three scenarios, a split vote. not too much focusing on the referendum on either end. the deficit, referendum conservatives have promised by 2017, or potentially the s&p does well with the legs coalition and the skies referendum will be back. maybe one-party doing well. -- with the latest coalition and the scottish referendum will be back. the broader the coalition, the probably worth it is. >> let's start with the referendum. on your call of the euro, you reference the political risk saw the euro trading below financial estimates. we know it is reasonable risk. but for sterling, could you say the same thing for sterling? >> slightly extreme and we look at the scottish referendum and a little preview of what politic

now, the euro has hit a 29-month low following comments from mario draghi. speak at germany's newspaper, draghi jurndz lines the ecb would be ready to act against low inflation earlier in the year adding quantity taken easing was still on the card. eurozone inflation is currently at 0.3%, a far cry from the 2% target. >>> the iranian deputy minister has called on saudi arabia to halt the fall in oil prices. still with us, is anthony chan from jan p morgan chase. let's talk about the oil price and its likely impact on the u.s. equity performance. you've prepared an interesting chart on this which does ug that even if in the short-term there is correlation with ek markets, it's almost always beneficial for equity markets. >> it really is, will forget. if you look at u.s. equity markets, whenever oil prices drop by more than 40%, i know there's a big department. i've looked at it since 1990 during economic expansion. as you start to see that through, you get really impressive gains in the equity market, close to 13.5% for the s&p 500 six months later. how about

mario draghi has placed his eye on japan.deal with the eurozone and the looming problem in greece. what will happen if they leave the euro? i wanted to ask our columnist. what is the score in europe right now? >> the market expects qe january 22. if they don't, we will see an implosion. >> an implosion, i love it. >> what do you mean? >> the market was down 2%, 3% a few days ago on greek headlines. imagine if we have all set up for qe january 22 and they don't do it. >> what about other assets? a lot of this is posting to sovereign debt. >> i think sovereign debt is priced in, but u.s. treasury's -- you can get a massive flight. everyone is forced to buy more and more just to get underweight. i think that is where the biggest impact will be. >> that was t days -- that was two days ago. why is the market up then? >> [laughter] >> it was up because people were worried about the implosion. people should have been worried two days ago. what is the difference? >> people keep taking this thing every couple months. this volatility w

how difficult does it make it for mario draghi now?ke a little bit of pressure off of mario draghi. clearly the swiss had tied their currency to a currency that was depreciating pretty rapidly, the euro. i think this was an opportune time to get themselves out of a difficult situation. >> let's revisit the confidence of a few years ago. the confidence that switzerland is different. it will longer tolerate a euro exchange rate below 1.20 swiss franc. it did not work. what does it cost the government of switzerland? >> they will be tallying those numbers for quite a while. swiss foreign exchange reserves have exploded from the beginning of 2012. of particular concern is that they just reported that the reserves went up by 33 billion during the month of december alone. that is just an unsustainable pace of acceleration in their reserve accumulation. >> the money coming in. you have been out front on this. here is wy plot six years ago. wow. coming off the swiss move, do we go to a new regime of currency war that could lead to deflation an

and the anticipation of draghi's long-awaited quantitative easing. manus cranny is at the touchscreen. >> it is very much a case of yang and yang. yet the china data which beats one of the slowest years. we should take a little bit of heart from the retail cells numbers. is the imf cutting growth at the fastest rate in three years, really that much of a shot -- shock? we suck equity markets and commodity markets come under such an audible trouncing. global growth down at three and a half percent. they're cutting the inflation target globally. why have inflation target? -- targets? oil prices are falling again as long with a couple of individual names that caught our attention. great interviews done by caroline. there is a ceo who knows how to answer questions you they missed on their sales targets, there's slowest growth targets in 2014. s.a.p., when it comes to business, will mcdermott lowers the profit target and the sales target is lowered. and that is moving from licensed software. that is actually underplayed. salesforce is not something they ar

normally, such a move, such a promise by mario draghi would help equities. not this first day of trading the dax dropped. that need not be the trend for 2015. at the moment, most people are expecting the dax to be higher at the end of this year than right now. >> here come the market numbers starting in bradford with the dax. i .4 of 1%. stocks fell but by half as much closing at 3139. the dow jones in new york where they are trading is down. .25 of 1%. and 12010. after a difficult 2014, i suppose the best we can hope for is cautious optimism. >> time for closer look at the german economic look for the year ahead. >> this is where the money is. they facilitate many players of the german bank industry. they're supposed to lend to companies to generate economic growth. in 2014, it could have been better. that's take a look around the city and check out the driving economic factors of the new year. >> the european central bank will set the tone in 2015. it's huge amount of stimulus have yet to spark substantial growth but the ecb will be injecting even more cas

draghi said low prices are good for people. . that is true in germany.have everyone employed in price is not moving, that is great news. it is not great news for the rest of the eurozone. >> unemployment in germany dropping to a record low 6.5%. check out the unemployment rate in greece and you will see a different story. "the pulse" is up next. we are here in europe and we are focused on eurozone inflation data, which is released in about an hour. economists forecasting a move to negative for the first time in five years. later today the attention turns to the fed. patients the word. that will be at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. ♪ >> brent below 50. oil hits a new five-year low. >> deflation dilemma. eurozone consumer prices are set to drop into negative territory. >> merkel meets cameron. the german chancellor in london. we are going to speak to one of her key advisors in an exclusive interview. good morning, welcome. you are watching "the pulse." i'm guy jo

the head of the bank mario draghi expected to make a major move tomorrow to help the struggling euro zone economy and the stakes are high. >>> historic meeting. a delegation from the u.s. arrives in cuba in an attempt to reestablish economic ties. >>> american express reports a rise in profits but plans to lay off thousands. all that and more tonight for "nightly business report," january 21st. >>> good evening, everyone. i'm sue herera. tyler will join us later in the program from the morning star fund manager of the year awards. wall street wraps up another volatile trading day with stocks ending modestly higher as anticipation builds for the expected announcement of a massive stimulus package from the european central bank. here's how things looked at the close. the dow up 39 points despite a big drag from a 3% decline in shares of ibm following weaker full year guidance. the nasdaq was up 12 and the s&p added 9 points. with stock's gains and losses today, investors are looking for some real direction tomorrow when we learn just what the ecb has in store for europe and for the glo

draghi will make a blunder beyond. think if you came out with a couple hundred and said -- it would be -- >> catastrophe. >> it could be complete chaos. if you pull that trigger, you have to do whatever it takes. >> what does that look like? >> minimum 500 with clear statements that this is just the first one. we will do whatever it takes until we see the deflation risk having disappeared. my guess, given the fact -- maybe there is in january some private sector stuff to extend sovereign qe at 500 with a clear indication that there could be qe 2, 3 4. >> when we had news they were going to publish, the ecb, in order to be transparent, you were on set with us. what does it mean for the markets? here, we have a very clear indication of where the ecb stands. >> we will see how much they actually published. i remember some years ago, a governing council member said to me, you would be very disappointed. you never really know what it is. you never really know how much they will tell. the other side of it, sometimes you see

and that is the most immediate impact of the draghi policy tool. reaction across global stocks is they like it because it's that stimulus. whether it will target europe or anybody else in the world, that eventually boosts -- >> underlying guy's point was the fact that that leaves the u.s. with a stronger dollar which should be a good thing philosophically and yet maybe becomes more and more of headwind for some companies with a lot of overseas operations and that sort of thing. >> i don't like the handling art. i think every large corporation has currency traders and if they wind up getting hurt from this very substantially, i'm going to start interviewing them all and ask what have they been thinking. >> it has been a big move in a short period of time. >> guy, i want you to relax a little. sbl hang >> happening on a second. starbucks is moving. earnings are out. 80 cents exactly what the expectation was. dominic chu with more. >> 80 cents is the headlines earnings number on an adjusted basis. that matches the wall street estimate. sales at $4.8 b

but mario an draghi the big bank of bank said 2 1/2 years ago, he said i will do whatever it takes. i am ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. finally after all this time we may see this -- very likely going to see this announcement that critics will say, both sides will say, the european and euro zone and economies are in such a state that something like this is needed. >> huge amounts of money. billions have been spent here trillions, more than the u.s. >> their program was $3.7 trillion. >> and it's worked? >> still debatable, but, yes. look at the u.s. economy and the uk economy. the international monetary fund as good examples of certainly putting the financial crisis behind them. there is an argument that yes, these economic stimulus programs have certainly boosted both the uk and the u.s. is it right for europe we'll have to wait and see. >> one country that will be closely watching the qe announcement is greece. they're getting ready for an election on sunday. it's an important one, because depending on the result some say it could even trigger greece's eventua