it is a draghi day.hat means we are going to find out that it is going to be a very volatile session. buckle up. ♪ guy: you are watching "on the move." i'm guy johnson. hans nichols is over in berlin. we are minutes away from the start of the morning trading. hans has the morning brief. ecb is expected to nothing today, but recent history suggests we should expect a bumpy ride. scandal looks set to cost volkswagen $10 billion. the stock has fallen 30% in two days. debt warns that china's fueled growth resembles the u.s. just before the global recession. futures though, are pointing at a positive direction. especially if you look at the price value, up almost .7%. let's get over to caroline hyde that the touchscreen. caroline: hans, thank you. as we rev up into trading, we are expecting a fourth day of gains in europe. we are on a three-day winning streak. global stocks are currently at their highest since december. remember, 16% higher than in february. is trading up. we're likely to see falls with erics

and mario draghi's press conference a little later. ahead of the ecb decision we've heard from fitnenance minister e again criticizing policy, saying negative rates do more damage than good. this follows his recent claims that negative claims have helped boost the rise of right wing party afd. negative rates have put on some pressure. and we've spoken about exactly what the effect on european lenders has been. >> it was largely around not much solvent but profitability in the banking issue. and i started mid november. marconi and others have said we're coming towards the end point of reregulation but there is also so much stuff still in the pipeline that is coming out that a lot of the investors are looking at how bank profitability will be once all of these measures are put in place. and i think we're seeing a lot of question in particular. >> important to establish a confidence also in the sector among customers and firms. so we cannot keeping this process of rewriting contracts every time we have a problem. but it is also important

day, all eyesbig on mario draghi. in less than 45 minutes time, an important policy decision from the ecb. that is when the real action happens with the news conference on bloomberg television. david: we have a stacked deck to cover. deutsche bank's cheap international economist had some slack over this. carson block will join us. general motors cfo chuck stephens on the company earnings coming up shortly. payroll: this is like friday. it is just under 45 minutes time that we get that decision. in the markets ahead of that decision, futures over in the u.s. looking at equities in europe, in the u.s., still positive. a vague lower in europe in the last hour, the dax down by 33 points after a fresh high hours ago. this is the fx market approaching that ecb decision, the euro dollar 113.12. earlier on, ugly retail sales from the u.k., cable did, but now it has come back. we are up on the day by .3301%. of 1%. crude bouncing higher again today by almost .1 of 1%. those are some of the market moves. let's get to matt mille

holding to a three-month high, but it is about what my go draghi -- what mario draghi says.e crude is about backwardation looking at brent peter there a lot of discussion about china, up 0.7% in copper. this chartwed earlier. let's see if i can do this. this is claims. it looks good. what do you think? it looks good. claims, recessions. news forood america. this is a part of america that has jobs, even a shortage of jobs. i think jpmorgan, the idea here of two americas, or three, or where there is a struggle is the fed debate for chair yellen. francine: this is our bloomberg surveillance present to the queen. a gorgeous bowtie on tom keene. her own son recorded and broadcast where he reads passages from shakespeare. i prefer the bow tie. i will tie this during the break. i'm wired up in the back, so i cannot do it like i normally do. at emerging markets, anastasia amoroso with us. the global market strategist. on a serious note, we are hearing more people say deploying assets. where in em is the best em? anastasia: i think the oil trade may be coming back. we talked about br

coming up next, germany versus draghi. negative rates are wrong.speak to michael fuchs, a close ally of angela merkel. ♪ great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. to "the pulseome ". i'm francine

when he for draghi, stocks drop of -- waiting for draghi, stocks hover. volkswagen said to have set aside $10 billion to resolve civil claims in the u.s. the stock jumps. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse." life from bloomberg's european headquarters here in london. let's check on the markets. that is not much going on -- there is not much going on in the terms of european stock prices. it is all but mario draghi and that news conference. expecting a huge decision today. it will be good to get his thought. one of the bigger moves we are seeing today, 4995. let's get to bloomberg's first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: volkswagen shares are trading higher as the carmaker said to have struck a deal over payouts linked to the cheating scandal. they have agreed to set aside $10 billion to resolve civil claims of the u.s. government and lawsuits by american car owners. it comes ahead of today's to say how it will fix the vehicle. billionaire investor says china's debt field economy resembles the u.s. in 2007 and 2008. he says china's march credit growth fig

draghi and company expec

mario draghi is not expected to do anything.but he has to walk a very fine line between saying that he is not going to do anything, probably not going to do anything for a while. and a sounding like he is done. the market will get pretty negative, because the view is definitely that he is not done enough yet. it is when to be an interesting day, i think. headline level, but i think it will be really important. manus: you think this article that's a goes on to talk about that despite the two major cks 50 in march, sto still down 15% over the last year. it just has not worked. believe market is not he can fix the earnings story in europe. they do not believe that mario draghi has done enough. that is the line he has to walk today. in order to keep the body of the governing council on board, he needs to signal that maybe they are going to review the situation. going to announce the details. but he cannot go much beyond that i suspect. breaking out of the trading range, i think that is important. the last couple of days we see them

anna: mario draghi there.ow we are joined for the next hour or so in the studio by the chief european economist at merrill lynch. he is here in the studio this morning from bank of america. merrill lynch, a great idea to have you here. mario draghi there, a lot of clips of this press conference yesterday. did it change your thinking on what the ecb will do and when? >> nokia not really. no one i think was expecting much from the ecb yesterday. apart from a documents. we do not think the ecb as many before to act further, the summer. we should look at the real economy and the eurozone, it is doing ok. there is no sense of urgency there. my guess though is that when we get through the last month of the year, the market will start sending questions about the continuation of qe. for the time being, it seems they can take a little bit of a break, a well-deserved break. and nothing he said yesterday would tell us that they are ruling out anything. it is very much a case of which rather not doing anything more? anna:

and that's what draghi is saying. the policy is great. reform to go with it. >> -- in terms here. however banks have enjoyed a little bit of a pop for the last three days but not a good start for the rest of the year. how do you view banks if for quarter. >> you have seen positive steps in italy. you have seen talk about ati and that starting to come back. so starting to recede a little bit. and when we look for opportunities we look for the improving credit growth. the consumer demands. the demand is there. the low oil price. all that should support the consumer. and think it will feed slowly into what you see in the financial sector. >> oil prices back up some 1% today. but ever since the doha disappointment we've seen some swings here. questions whether we can stay in the range. what do you think? >> i think it is going to be a sideways move for commodities broadly. for me it is a case of saying there is a floor under the oil because if it drops too low you will see opec get together and say oh we're going to have that production freez

draghi saying we need to be patient? how long? >> i think it is quite unlikely that the ecb again loses its monetary policy in june or september. the corporate bond purchases have not yet started and the cbs significantly lowered already their projections for gdp and core inflation. i don't see in the medium-term significant downside risks to these projections. but in order to convince the governing council to do more in the short-term, you need to see downward revisions in the projections, which i do not expect. nothing will happen i think in june and september, but i continue to expect the ecb to start acting at the end of the year. guy: so we're not done yet. about thisou reporting that bloomberg is producing on the boj that is moving the market? the boj apparently looking maybe to allow banks or helping banks may be to issue loans in negative rates. does this feel like a bit of copycat, like the boj is looking at this story out of the ecb and saying, we will have a piece of that? joerg: that is possible. the japanese yen has a

that is the mario draghi ripple effects side of the region. companies ine 109 the s&p 500 that reported earnings. is a looking at the bloomberg. it is hanging onto a gain of 60% of the companies beating estimates. here, you have the earnings. you have the drop. let's take a look at some of the earnings. you had union pacific. it had volumes down in the rail industry. said second-quarter earnings. increasing sales. southwest turning around. ,n the downside today travelers, the insurance company first order profits are down 17%. imagine as you can see, things are evolving even as we speak, biogen had earnings beating estimates. issues willng labor put pressure on the second quarter earnings. mark: the stoxx 600 was trading lower head of the ecb announcement. it is still lower. hopefully, i'll be able to give some of the sections for you. we do not they said need to do more. he said let's give it time to see if they will do more. they've moved into 17 and 18 and trying to figure out how lending travels were approved. it is still early. this is a

a defensive mario draghi.he is being attacked by politicians, savers were mad that they have negative interest rates and by the pension industry and others who depend on long-term investments. so he had to be defensive. and he had to basically say that he sees signs that it is working and we have to wait. but the problem is, we have been waiting for a long time. march was not the first time that the ecb has done something radical. they gave us negative interest rates a while ago and this is an extension of quantitative easing. so i think people have been patient and they are losing their patients. jonathan ferro: we talked about the impatience, about whether the ecb can afford to be patient given by how low target inflation has been for so long. >> unit to apply a bit of a separation principle. yes, on the one hand they want inflation back up to target, ultimately and it is important for them to have comfortably low , but not too low, ultimately at for them to have comfortably low , but not too low, levels of

draghi. draghiuestions -- mario brushed off those questions.e did indicate that they are willing to purchase more assets and keep on doing that. that is where if more stimulus is needed, that is where it is going to come from. betty: andrew, maybe the monetaryis not windows easing is going to end, but how long is it going to last? it seems liked it is never ending. is that the scenario that europeans are coming to terms with? yeah, you noticed he used patients at least twice in the press conference. one of the dangers they got here is a low rates of growth and low rates of inflation. they have become the new normal. he made reference to the united states, but alluding to, it can get better. you noticed he did not make reference to japan where you need a lot of patience as a citizen there. what the central banks are really asking for is this grand policies, all three structural, fiscal, and monetary policy to get a recovery. the monetary in there. the fiscal could do more. and the structural is a little bit lacking, and that is what they are ask

did you hear anything today from mario draghi or the ecb that you thought was significant? was pretty quiet, and that was anticipated. people were not primed for anything major. ecb on this point about the , is this going to work to get the credit flowing in the eurozone and growth accelerating? >> i do think it is helping at the margins, and i think it will help the economy continue to grow above trend. but thely 1.5%, unemployment rate has come down almost a percentage point over the past year, so i do think it will help sustain that. the unemployment rate is still above 10%. we think that is probably still a couple percentage points away from normal, so it would take quite a long time of this above trend growth to get back to normal. mario draghi is fielding criticism from german politicians for trying to connect the dots between negative interest rates and the populist party. effects can it have on monetary policy? >> i don't know if they have a lot of effects on the efficacy, but it will make them more reluctant to potentially do more in the future. i still think you c

francine: how should mario draghi greek brexit?safety mike it on the economy ahead of the june 23 referendum vote? harm: he of course is in close contact to mark carney and other officials to get a better sentiment. what they should have in the draw is some emergency plan. , that will extend liquidity to the financial system and cushion volatility. theie: when it comes to federal reserve, will we look to the fed for the next move? you want to come back to this and talk about the fed and market expectations. when human -- harm: the way the fed was talking about market-based inflation, break evens, even in janet yellen's testimony, she was kind of dismissing the message from these breakeven rates because they said it is impacting that is impacted by liquidity and the oil price. they started to highlight low market-based inflation expectations as a reason for concern. that is not helpful in terms of clear communication. since the risk appetite can back to the market, oil prices went up. surprise, market-based inflation expectations ar

that is what draghi has done in the past. consider the big problem for markets over the last two years has been implosions to the dollar, the pressures brought to bear on china. to the downside on oil prices. soon as you started to get a fed that was more dovish, what did you see? outflows from china slowing down, oil prices stabilizing. francine: you could argue it is just kicking the problem down the road, but given what you have just said and what we heard from janet yellen, she's worried about dollar strengthened financial stability and china, do we care about the u.s. jobs report? >> less than we might have done four days ago. it gives us a skew going into this report. francine: wage growth that we want to hear. >> yeah, absolutely. the old fashion thing is people still look at the absolute number. put it this way. , 2,t is stronger than 4 someone between 200 and 210, will bull market taken into account? a little bit. if it is weaker than that, the market will take notice. limited reaction to a strong number. a very stro

this is draghi's preferred inflation gauge. the ecb is jawboning.iot draw the -- today saying policymakers will not surrender to excessively low price growth. the central bank is ready to do what is needed. the inflation expectations have been rising. 1.42% highs of last year. -- we ignored the pounded the last week or so. volatility is on the rise. level, implied volatility, which measures the exchange rate euro-pound over the next three months. at its highest level since 2009. we can't get away from the upcoming referendum with less than 80 days to go. volatility continues to climb. we are not at the highs of 2009 when we were roughly at 21.979. at the way we are going, how soon could it be before we reach those 2009 highs? will be hereens, i to chart it at and be on the referendum. betty: normalize any well. [laughter] from thees are out ecb. he went through some of what they showed. they showed that policymakers do not rule out the possibility of a further rate cut or further rate cuts deeper into negative territory. mark: now joining us for a d

draghi and company expected to hold interest rates steady.cision due around 7:45 eastern and then draghi will be holding a news conference that starts 8:30 eastern. the dax is down by less th than .2%. >> what is that? >> the euro sitting at 1:13 versus the u.s. dollar. and crude oil price, prices initially falling over night. -- >> wait a minute. >> -- contract rolled overnight. >> it was 40 yesterday. this is rigged. >> it was 42. >> at one point in the day it was at 42. >> this is the rnc. this is rigged. this is like reince priebus is controlling the -- >> further and further out. >> -- going to 85 and like a no brainer. >> it's 40 now it's 44 just like a contract roled. it's rigged. you can't go from 40 to 44 overnight and -- >> i looked at crude yesterday and it was 42 and change. >> must have been up then. >> and -- looked at that it was 43 and change. so -- yeah. >> rigged. we got reince priebus and trying to get him mad. >> i think we did that already. >> he's so defensive. have you seen him any of the shows. >> they're preparing for

draghi's got a problem, right? rish: this does not make his job any easier.sts are coming to the conclusion that they will have to do something additionally when it comes to using. market pricing is pointing that way. the oil story doesn't make it any easier. for default we have seen just puts pressure on inflation, and every other central banker. guy: what are the stakes? are they just watching and giggling? jonathan: the world we live in, the likes of draghi want a higher crude price, and crude is seeing -- it's pretty ridiculous, but that is the place we are in. there is an session to see how wti trades into the open as an indicator of what will happen. at the same time, we are ignoring what's really going on. corporate profits. we knew earnings were going to be week. all roads lead back to crude. if you look at those numbers you go through jpmorgan, bank of america, you strip them back and analysts dominate my saying that we don't care about your consumer business. we want to talk about those increase in provisions and the losses on the back of energy. jo

. >> be more jealous if the panel had draghi, kuroda, carney, and yellen. that would be epic. we'll organize that one. >> this is "worldwide exchange." we'll go global. fareed, you've got nothing on us. >> once we've organized that. right. our top story this morning, jpmorgan releasing ceo jamie dimon's annual letter to shareholders last night. among the highlights, dimon says he's not worried about negative interest rates in the u.s. that's because the chief executive notes housing is in short supply. car sells are at record levels. consumers are spending what he calls the gas dividend. dimon is more concerned about rates rising faster than people expect, which is odd for aening baaing ceo to outline that rue. the banking ceo also warns high

. >> meanwhile, central action today, ecb, mario draghi says he sees rates at current levels or lower for an extended period and that risks to euro area growth remain to the down side. he said it's essential to preserve appropriate accommodation as long as needed, try to keep alive the actions than he did first and the last month, this is a quarter, by the way, that has been completely dominated by how the linearity of the quarter has been. january okay, february, march good. march good. europe. i've never seen this. mabb this is just the new world but every day seems how was yesterday? it was good, let's by the stock. how was the weekend? it was okay. sell the stock. honestly, it is day to day now. people are judging people on a day to day. >> and it's also the earning. >> i'd love to hear what the president has to say about this. >> let's go to riyadh. here's the president of the united states. all those guys working the mikes all that time and no audio. >> well, we got a ton to say. >> we'll way to see if they fix it. obviously we want to hear what he has to say this morning, wheth

is the key message from mario draghi. this was at yesterday's news conference.ftened his tone about taking rates into deeper territory. he says he wants to see if stimulus will jumpstart the european economy. joining us now is marchel alexandrovich. great to have you with us. when i reflect back on the news conference from draghi, it was clear to ban issues were at play. he wants to guide expectations that we need to be patient to see the five-year take higher from 1.4%. marchel: there are a lot of messages coming from him. is really about markets not expecting much from the ecb too soon. if you look at the sequence of , in the ecb, the last was the ideawanted that the ecb will do anything at the meeting in june. he will take it one meeting at a time. the april meeting -- the signals coming from the meeting yesterday was that for the time being, things are good enough. he is basically guiding markets towards looking past the june meeting, perhaps the july meeting, and more likely to the september meeting. at that point, markets need to be compared to do more. bu

francine: if brexit happens, how this mario draghi deal with it?brexit happens, there are near-term consequences. speaking on fx, there could be some good news. my guess is the euro would take a hit. it euro sterling would not be a wouldver but euro-dollar quite significantly. it is very difficult to get a clear picture. stories on both sides of the fence in terms of what could be outlook. francine: the math doesn't come into reality anymore. derrico the u.k. treasury -- derek: most economists would be in terms of protecting what is going to be the case in 2030. this idea of real gdp being 6% lower. ,hey divided per household 1300. when you look at what the -- where the government projected gdp would be in 2015, they missed by nearly five percentage points. consumer confidence in 2015 had not arrived. we've got to put it in context. 6% on gdp over a 14 year period is not huge. francine: it is the unknown. we don't know. derrico is trusted -- derek: it starts to be in spent on economics -- spin on economics. the bank of england is going to have a bi

this uncertainty was one of the reasons that mario draghi went even more expansionary.reated again uncertainty. to get out of this vicious circle, we need some kind of stability. that is a stein that janet yellen could give tonight that the situation in the u.s. is not as bad. case, the growth will be increasing in the coming months. there is even room for higher interest rates. guy: the best way she could say she is comfortable with the u.s. economy and where it is is to raise rates. would that be too much? >> no. i think it would not be too much. i think it would be really a good sign to say that everything seems to be fine the time being. risksare risks, but also on both sides with growth and inflation. she is fine with the current situation and that is about it. further data will show the future. guy: when you look at what is happening with the story relating to the banking sector in europe, we were talking to the cfo of santander early on. he is waiting for details from the ecb. monetary policy at this point and time seems to be stuck in the middle. we are waiting

draghi holds the door open for yellen. will she stepped through? through?he stepped we've got the fed on wednesday. .his is a bloomberg report the boj on more japanese equities than the world's biggest asset managers. we asked what is left on the shopping list? good morning hans. we have a big week it comes to the central bank story. politics fascinating and germany. , obamathese leaders corralling everybody in the same room. what are they going to be talking about? hans: they're going to be talking about the middle east, syria. more the industry side of things, the economic side of things, they are talking past voters. it is remarkable to me when obama and merkel, they are talking free trade and yet very few german politicians are willing to publicly say this is going to get done. everybody is playing defense on trade ahead of these waning hours of the obama presidency. that is the challenge moving forward. guy: it is going to be interesting to see what the subject at dinner is going to be. we have the list of who is going to be having dinner. a particular

draghi faces april 21. >> that's a tough one.hink we really understand what's going on the productivity. i just read those 700 pages of bob gorman which says that there is no -- i find it to be overly pessimistic. it's the end of mankind invention, so i don't buy that. withpect it has to do measuring because the economy is moving more toward services now and we don't really know how to measure. tomfrancine: do we know what is going on behind yen moves? i have a chart -- until yesterday, yen was going ever higher, despite all we had from boj and governor kuroda. are you worried that again we are piling into -- is a haven? is it because there is a lack of structural reforms? >> i don't know what's going on, and when i talked to policymakers over the last couple weeks, it's the one thing they talked most about -- what is happening to the end. a community of a dozen of my types from around the world just a week ago, and we were guessing where it goes. it was 50-50 up or down. we have no clue. i'm in the camp who think that over time

draghi is leaving the door open to further rate cuts that they at the ecb. we are going to take a very quick look at other asset classes when we return. up next, we will talk to the head of the global emerging markets. ♪ guy: kuroda is still speaking in tokyo. i love this line we have up on the screen at the moment. helicopter money not legally allowed in japan. what he said was under the current circumstances, under the current legal structure -- you change the legal structure, it might give us the opportunity to do that, but monetization might be been, for that -- might be the moment for that. academic.cally an that has no relevance to the real world. it is interesting that kuroda is saying that the boj will add easing in all three dimensions if needed. that is very sci fi out in tokyo. let's get back to switzerland, where the world management summit is being held. caroline hyde is there with another guest. back to you. snowine: yes, and the continues to fall. warm.afael is keeping me clients inking to brazil and mexico. what is the risk sentiment at the m

your thoughts. >> rick, i don't think draghi did anything that wasn't expected. i think he pretty much laid it out in march and i didn't see anything yesterday that really changes anything. and, you know, a little bit of volatility in the dollar/euro, but i don't really see where -- things he proposed in march don't kick in until really over the next six, seven weeks. so i don't expect much there. i think the real events are next week with the fed meeting and the bank of japan meeting. >> i got ya. now, you know, on the fed quickly, just to pick one because i could pick a lot, b l bullard flip-flops a lot, latest is lockhard. april on the table right before we wouldn't support a hike, we hear a lot of this. i don't know, to me it's hard to get your gps when there's so many conflicting microphone entries into the process. your thoughts. >> rick, i've never seen more fed governors go against what the chairman is pretty much outlined. and we're going to go with the chairman here. you know, i've been doing this a long time. you got to listen to -- you got to watch wh

carol: i think about mario draghi.re going to do whatever it takes, so they set a precedent. >> they set a precedent because there was no one else in charge. someone has to say -- to give the boost and say we're going to save the things. ben bernanke did thqat, and mario draghi did that. carol: having laid that out there, what does whatever it take me for the european central bank? they have done a lot. >> they have done a lot but europeans have to learn to boost their own economy. people have to borrow, people have to invest, to build new things. they are not doing that. carol: what about the bank of japan? which you guys also include in this. but they have done a lot. but they have also thought about things to stimulate the economy. it is not just global central bank issues. >> in japan it is interesting. the political system has a lot to do with why the economy is not working. there isn't enough -- they are not changing the way people behave. that basically is a huge damper on the economy. that is why they face defl

i don't think it's all mario draghi. has backpedaled from her tougher stance.verybody is noodling around and the bank of japan is happy that this is supportive. now that the trial balloon has worked, they will probably implement it. tracy: give us your outlook for the fomc meeting next week. >> the dollar has been rising relentlessly until a few months ago and then people realize that may be we are near the top of the cycle in the u.s. will only rise as inflation goes up. real inflation may not go up and mario draghi says we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle. he tried to tell the market that the rate differential is increasing. i don't buy that and i don't think the market rise it. when you look at longer-term moving averages, we are more than steve -- than two standard deviations on the high side on the dollar. we should be coming down and i think the dollar has to come back down. thank you so much. we will be right back. ♪ scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. tracy: this is your global business report. scarlet: last year's easel in missions scandal

is it time, that mario draghi said, to bear fruit? >> i think it will bear some fruit.n you look at the impact of things, the policy of the ecb, and think about where we are in terms of growth and inflation now, i think you would have to be quite confident suggesting that the ecb has done enough. i think mario draghi suggested that today. >> some central bankers this week saying that we have reached the limits of the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy. do you concur, or is there more to be done, and can more be effective? >> i certainly concur that the marginal efficacy of each additional dose of monetary easing is declining. i would disagree on that we have reached the end. in the press conference, mario draghi breast of those questions about purchasing equity or helicopter money. what he did indicate was that they are willing to purchase more assets and keep on doing where i think is it more stimulus is needed, that is for it will come from. >> tech stocks take a tumble. microsoft and apple that deep in the red in the premarket. forecasts.lysts' look at the

is can argue mario draghi having a similar problem here.be this will make life even more difficult for him. fundamentalist, the bounceback may be stalling. given what is going on with the banks this hasn't been helpful. inflation is a big problem in europe. we haven't hit inflation for some time. that may continue. guy: do you think he is right on the credit channel? that gets through to the real economy. at some point, people start to talk about helicopter money. guy: they already are, but the bankers are saying we have to put it back in the drawer. if that is the case, if that is a language, it is getting pretty close to the edge of what is feasible year. that is why the talk about fiscal policy is getting more and more. does this talk about fiscal policy and they push or you? buten: less than talk helicopter money. that is a bond investment and it really worries me. fiscal in terms of addition, that is a sensible thing for countries around the world at this point. i'm not sure it would welcome it, but it would admit that it is a necessar

we are getting some comments from mario draghi, the ecb president. he said that the ecb helps in then trust currencies. they are all saying that further stimulus could be needed. it is necessary to get prices back to their target. will behink it necessary to pull the stimulus gun again? kathy: it certainly looks like it. it certainly has not accelerated to the level that the european officials would like to see. we are seeing a rolling over in some of the industrial production levels. some of that is due to the slowdown in exports from europe and the slowdown in china. i think there may be more that is needed. the question is, what are they going to do next? they are buying corporate bonds. they are fretting the line between monetary and fiscal policy. where do they go from here? speaking in is lisbon, by the way. i'm going to bring up a chart of the spanish 10-year bond yield. says is a lovely stat that this has not happened since july 2012 and you know what happened then. this is one draghi said he would do whatever it takes to save the euro. spani

another chart that matters to mario draghi is inflation.dent said the central bank will not surrender to low-inflation. yesterday, draghi reiterated that plenty of tools remain. that does not include the financing of fiscal stimulus. i guess that would be illegal. if not, then what? that's the question. let's put that to the bloomberg news senior economic correspondent. we talked about tools in the box. helicopter money is apparently not in the box. we try torough as understand the relationship between the ecb and of the central banks around the world and what policy positions they are likely to put forward. what is left? >> for a start, draghi and his colleagues are giving the mantra that they have plenty left. if we look at the other details from yesterday, for example, in the accounts of the last military policy meeting, we can infer there is only one interest rate cut left before they have to say, that's it. then we get into uncharted territory. at the same time, that is why we having this conversation about helicopter money which would

has draghi got it right? he said that the ecb doesn't surrender to excessively low-inflation. is this the right policy? more of that, or would you say more negative rates, richard? >> none of the above. all these policies the central bank is putting in -- not just the ecb, but the fed as well -- they have to help the lenders when the money. end money. but the borrowers are missing and when the borrowers are missing there is little they can do. borrowers are still not comfortable with their balance sheets, and until they become comfortable, they are not coming back to borrow. in the meantime, what government has to do -- they have to be a borrower of last resort to make sure all the saved funds are put back into the income stream. manus: so how much fiscal stimulus -- is that the road? and if so, who should be the vanguard? is that what will turn around the deflation story in japan? is that what abe should be focused on, mr. draghi should be focused on pushing governments to do? >> well, we can see that in the

you're mario draghi and you look at qe, he's trying to argue with what we heard.ing the economy because it is filtering through the economy. i'd argue that qe hasn't done much -- >> sure. and it else risk sentiment to a certain extent -- you see the rally investments and the announcement of the changes of composition. the problem is they were late to the game. workstative easing when equity valuations are low. none of it makes the case, and it is not the case now that they are putting more into it. doesn't mean nation but it means they get less for their buck. i think bank lending is very important; the stress test an asset quality review, as far as them being lenient, were positive for confidence and that is crucial. say withhat draghi can a clear heart that the european economy has been one of the success stories of this year. francine: at the margins, we aren't doing so great. it's not a catastrophe, but given how much money is pumped out there, we aren't in that great of shape. >> true, and he is fighting against a lot of structural rigidity and fiscal consoli

this alongside any clues on mario draghi's next policy steps as well. well, speaking to the committee on economic and monetary affairs of the european parliament a bit earlier, the ecb vice president expressed his willingness to tackle the eurozone inflation problem going forward. >> ecb has done and will continue to do whatever is needed to pursue its price stability objective which now implies also trying to foster growth in order to close the negative output gap that is putting negative pressure oin fla -- on inflation. however, other policies must also act to deliver a lasting and sustainable improvement in economic growth prospects. >> well, joining us now for more discussion of the ecb ahead of those minutes is otmar issing. sir, it is a real pleasure to have you with us. thank you for joining us this morning. a lot of people looking for exactly what the central bank could do next, but in your opinion, should the ecb take any additional action? >> i wouldn't expect too much new information from the minutes. as we have seen in the past, the minutes

what is the toolbox that's optimal for janet yellen and optimal for mario draghi?if you look at growth in the u.s. it's running at 17%, so the u.s. might well afford slightly higher rates without killing credit -- economic theory states the opposite, but if you look at the rest of the world, credit growth is very mediocre, so i think the central banks are still trying -- especially in europe, which is a bank-based economy, trying to foster lower credit growth by lowering or fostering lower credit rates so if the e.c.b. tried increase interest rates, we have also seen the savings and from lower oil prices, this is the major driver in the european economy right now, it's bad consumption because of the real income gains and if you look at low inflation you have to take that into perspective when you look at interest rates. because interest rates are not that the great but they are not that bad. francine: when you look at what the real -- i'm going to jump in with a question. you're saying that the e.c.b. -- to remain very acome very accommodative, do you think janet y

what would you suggest to president draghi? >> well, you know, i'm not draghi. i don't have all the information. i think we should not have this competition between central banks as to who can go the lowest on this one. at a certain moment, we just have to look at the politicians and ask them, you know, do the reforms in the countries that still need to do the structural reforms to make the economy sustainably healthy. i think what we're trying to do now with this last step is actually -- you know, it's not a sustainable move. sustainability of turning the economy around can only come from structural reforms and some of the countries in europe. >> reporter: all right. well, thank you very much. that's the ceo of ing group, really discussing some of the macro trends, the headwinds banks continue to face as they try to innovate. coming up, we'll be speaking to a very special guest, blithe masters. i'll be moderating a panel with her. we'll have sound for you in just a little bit. louisa, i will be flying back to london very shortly. ive enjoyed my time here in you

draghi isio towards a record. many companies are inching closer to borrowing for free.heard it right. darling for free as the ecb expands its stimulus package. we are joined with our corporate finance reporter. it is great to have you with us. the does this tell us about european credit market? when i look at this story, i see one big bubble. >> it may well be a bubble. what it does tell us is that investment companies are listening to mario draghi's message. they heard loud and clear. we have seen a near record amount of issuance in march. that across the board, investors are reaching down to try and get yields. deposit rates have been cut to -.4%. investors are looking for places to put their cash that are not negative yielding. they have looked to corporate bonds. across the board, there is a lot of advertising for credit at the moment. hans: hans here in berlin. you cover corporate bonds so well. do you see the national breakdown? are german corporate borrowing less? why do we have this french company that was the first to issue such a low yield? katie: we could mak

on the balance of things, is it good news for draghi? will he take an upside risks to growth and a downside risk to inflation? jeff: i think it is good news. mainly because it is better than expected growth print today. .6 versus not .4, which was our consensus. i think mario draghi would take that any day of the week. considering the first quarter worries we had, this is definitely good news. we knew inflation was going to happen. that is because of oil. jon: do you think the base effects continue to weaken throughout the year? far: all of the signal so are that in the second half of euro area inflation will pick up, perhaps even markedly. it is still a long way from where it is supposed to be, but what we are really interested in here is the underlying momentum of the economy. that is why today's data is, on balance, good news. the fx channel, a lot of people said it does not matter as much to the ecb, is a wanted a year ago, two years ago. as the euro get stronger, does it become more of a headache for the ecb? jeff: it has always bee

francine: where does this leave mario draghi? qe's? to more marcus: this is the thing, if you have bought china by weakening the dollar, the effect is you are going to hit assets --t draghi in the euro [indiscernible] the euro and the yen will suffer if the dollar is weakened to help ease the problems of the emerging markets. francine: as a market strategist, what would you do, follow the money? follow trends? or do you next six months out? marcus: i think is a great trading market. don't get to worried with thanks. it is not a long-term market. sit back and watch. you don't have to be nimble. it is about making sure that you understand rates are falling everywhere. therefore it is probably -- [indiscernible] francine: marcus, thank you so much for joining us. .hief market strategist up next, suffering the penama paints. will it be that banks who take the biggest hits. we speak to -- talk about markets, banks and the currencies. we talk about yen. it is missing in touch. it was gaining earlier. it is one away .07. we are back in a coup

mario draghi talking about patience. news, viacomaking and dish resolving their differences over a fee dispute over which dish network subscribers would be able to carry viacom content. sharplywhich had fallen , rebounding by 12%. lisa: thank you so much, julie. the dollar is gaining. let's check on the bloomberg first word news this afternoon. prince isc legend dead. his publicist says he was found at his home in suburban minneapolis. he was widely acclaimed as one of the most innovative musicians of his era with hits including "little red corvette," "let's go cry."" and "when doves fans gathered in the rain outside his house. prince was just 57 years old. a former ambassador and congressman who sat on the 9/11 commission is urging the release of 28 pages that have been kept secret. he says the public should be allowed access to the material which reportedly focuses on saudi arabia's possible role in the attacks that killed thousands. the investigation did not discover any role by senior high level saudi government offi

draghi? >> hard money.s dragged into the idea of negative rates and the idea of exceptional accommodation, and let's be fair, if the german housing market is one of the big beneficiaries of quantitative easing, then that's booming. the bigger dynamic in germany pleas betterthe coming from the imf and christine lagarde, please ease fiscal policy in germany. tom: how does that play out? i saw no cultural suggestion that germany would do what madame lagarde requests. >> exactly that, although certainly not without some quid pro quo. the imf meeting last me could be summed up as the world has borrowed too much, has too much debt, could those who have room please borrow. an odd message, but one which is sent toward germany and falling on deaf ears. francine: will he have a crisis this year? can central banks combated if we do? >> i don't think>> we will have a crisis. look, i have been amazed by the ability of central banks to come back with more and more. it feels as if they are running out of room. if you do c

i am sounding like mario draghi but not enough is being done to address the structural problem, is itlucio: that is absolutely true. --have encounters that have the levels of unemployment and youth unemployment are still unjustifiably high. that is one of the reasons why one of the components for the priorities of the commission is exactly to support the structural reform in the european union. that is one of the key political priorities and actually, one of the main priorities of the investment plan itself. as you know, the investment plan has three components. financing, communication components and the reform component. ovet we can do to impr business environments -- and also what we can do -- it is clearly one of the priorities that we have. mark: how much further can the european central bank go? in its effort to try to stimulate growth? the experiment in unorthodox measures continues, as it did on march the 10th. how much further do you expect will be necessary to boost growth, try to get inflation back to that target of 2%? thank you for the question. as you are aware, traditio

guy: draghi chivalrous to the last. maybe has done a janet yellen a favor.t want the raise rates -- want to raise rates. the market thinks we are good to see some hike. -- are going to see some hike. is unlikely to be this week. the market is on board with that concept. if they do hike rates you are going to see the dollar go through the roof. this chart here -- the trade weighted euro, the spread has widened. what draghi has given to janet yellen is an opportunity to keep that going. maybe there is room for the dollar to go up a little bit but still close that gap. still not completely close it and therefore give her the run that she needs. anna: the fed has been worried about the strength of the dollar and maybe that is less of a worry. nicholas: the watchword is in reality is stability. maybe the same for the fed. currencies don't do a lot. we are in a bid for stability there. chart according to the function of a rate hike from the fed. that sound about right? nicholas: maybe that is too high. it is -- if you take a step back and think about broader issue