draghi will have to answer to.d the statement, whether it is balanced risk, upside and downside. we're waiting for the announcement, and it is a few seconds late. there it is. zero, and the conciliatory rate at -4%. keep rateswant to unchanged through the summer of 2019. they need to keep rates unchanged as long as they need to for inflation. and reinvestments will last as long as necessary. summer?tion is, what is it august, september? david: which maturing debt will they reinvest? will it stay with the country that is maturing? there interesting questions to be addressed. alix: at the end of the bond buying, it will be contingent on income it data. they will be reducing bond buying to 16 billion euros. it anticipates and end to asset purchases in december. david: that is new purchases as opposed to rolling over. alix: joining us is matt miller from outside the ecb. this was sort of the backdrop for the press conference, but what will be of the core of what we need to hear from mario draghi? matt: what we need to

mario draghi certainly is a big piece in the picture. we are seeing this theme of rising global bond yields in unison. it was treasuries that kicked it off. it seems to be transferring to german bunds. the market has a long way to go. yields are only 0.5% in the 10 year. can you imagine if things turn bearish in german bunds, how far yields could go? what we saw yesterday was huge volume in german bunds. this morning, they are week again. it will probably feedback into treasuries, which are soft during asian time as well even though chinese equities are relatively weak. there is no safe haven play for treasuries. there is no safe haven for german bunds either. jgb's are week. you have the major bond markets all tumbling at the same time. this could run on for a while as people look at what mario draghi has said. it could mean changes to ecb outlook in the coming months. matt: in fact, we are expecting, or the market is expecting, a hike sooner from the ecb. take a look at this chart that hillary devised for us. 5894 on the bloomberg term

draghi yesterday. the dollar going nowhere. whether you're in france, u.k., yields up to basis points. we will talk with the ceo of bp later. what does he think? will he see 100? david: is that what you are predicting? alix: no, what i be here now? confidence data coming out here president trump will address the yuan general assembly. the united states treasury will auction $38 billion on 5-year note speared it is time for the bloomberg first take third we're are joined by rachel evans and marty schenker. marty, the president has quite a schedule today. he has bilaterals with colombia and the secretary-general and security council. what do we really expect out of them at the yuan general assembly address? marty: we expect him to target iran and the nuclear program. last year he targeted north korea. he is now good friends with kim. now iran will take his full fury and you will go right after the nuclear program. fundamentally, do the markets care? rachel: the markets have been immune to most of the conversation on politics and

let me ask about mario draghi. lower his growth while saying everything is cool, do not worry. will have quantitative easing and raise rates at the end of summer next year. how hard will that be? the big worry for us is the weakness we have seen in the european numbers started before a want of the trade headlines. draghi haves mario to explain why there was a negative impact on european business, but he will also have to explain why europe is losing momentum already. a wide -- is such wise idea to withdraw stimulus at that point in time. i want to ask you about the italian story. there are reports around would stay or go. we see this weighing on italian stocks. market. fairly flat are you concerned? is this important to the entirely in budget -- italian budget? are a number of investors out there who view being aernment as mixture of populist and technocrats -- populists and technocrats. salvini need to fulfill their electoral promises. of those technocrats would be a concern for the market. they are struggling to

some are wondering where m draghi sees the big acceleration. partly because he also says he sees a broad based economic expansion. fair enough g.d.p. is growing ok. take a look at this chart. you can see g.d.p. on a quarterly basis has come down. 0.4% to the last two quarters year over year only about 0.6% and the p.m.i., the white line going down still above 50. purchasing managers, manufacturing. still signaling growth. you can see a bit of a down trend. i think that's why people are wondering, what's draghi up to here? could it be that he is seeing broader measures in inflation besides wages, besides other indications, growth getting strong enough? sure. that is clearly what he sees. that's what he says. but people are saying maybe he is also trying to make sure everyone is ready. everyone is set up for an interest rate hike by the end of summer next year. toward the end of 2019. unless trade war. he did raise the red flag on rising protectionism and is concerned it could take a big hit out of economic growth in the eurozone. i think that is

what data points in particular draghi isr what watching?lation and growth. it's when he says he sees a vigorous acceleration in inflation that really gets people's attention. he expects aat tightening european labor further.ush up wages federal reserve expects the same thing. ing, his inflation view contrasts with the e.c.b. 1.7% year over year not sound likees a vigorous drive. bloomberg into our library and what you can see is the headline inflation rate, is just at 2% now year over year. the target is just under 2%. so you've met it on the headline but let's look at a couple of turning down a bit. one, you can see is services inflation, a very important driver of overall inflation, then the super core taking on more, and it is also pointing downward so i think that raises question. this.r question is he sees a broad based economic expansion. whyd this be another reason he sees inflation rising? let's go back into the bloomberg library, call up another chart at g.d.p. and the purchasing manager's index as we have been seeing lately. year,

mario draghi talks about significantly stronger core inflation, where does it come from? >> it comes from easy monetary policy. easy monetary policy help strengthen labor markets over time. ward pressure on inflation measures. looks like inflationary pressure is building. similar to the u.s., we got a downside surprise which does indicate downward revised expectations for core pce numbers coming up. but in general, inflationary pressures have been building. arething that policy makers watching, but broadly, central banks and developed a market central banks still believe they have time on their hands where they removed policy gradually, they do not have to push harder against the rising inflation. >> what is your level of confidence then, but with the turkish central bank, the fact that they did to raise more than expected? are you somewhat reassured that they are operating in consequently? are concerned about is that typically with e.m., you do not lump all countries together. every country has their idiosyncratic story, but when you have the pressure is that we have see

president mario draghi his comments were considered the turning point in the crisis the e.c.b. is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. and believe me it will be enough the european central bank began buying government bonds from struggling e.u. countries especially from southern europe those countries went heavily into debt to save their own banks and were then under threat themselves the financial crisis was about to engulf the whole state the e.c.b. financed entire countries it was a highly controversial measure but it worked collapse was averted but the problem of rising european debt still hasn't been solved. so let's talk a little bit about that's i'm joined now by marcus miller from the u. . of us city cents a gallon in switzerland but today you're here in berlin good to have you with us we just heard again those famous words by easy behead dr g. these b. will do whatever it takes to save the euro and it will be enough was it enough yes it was enough and it was probably one of the best sentences ever in monetary policy history so darkie did a perfect job to

manus made the point this was mario draghi want two-way risk into the bund market.p five basis points yesterday. we now stand at 52 basis points. are we going to see that treasury-bund spread tighten? >> possibly. i think the outlook is upward. we have stayed above 3% in the u.s. longer than we did back in may. the swiss government bond yield is positive after -- and it has been for a week. it may well be that the spread narrows a little bit. i think the direction of change in bond yields probably continues to gently be upwards. i do not think that is necessarily a bad thing either. but it is about time. to get a are going couple of central banks in the emerging markets with rate decisions this week. on the equity side, the pieces of news we have been trying to together is on buybacks. glencore announces they're going to add $1 billion of additional buyback. this is nasdaq. it is just a frame for the discussion of buybacks. buybacks have been driving the u.s. market. buybacks are part of the metals and miners. this is incredibly important for the market in terms of

draghi was saying but because of some weakness transpiring in the u.s. you can see euro is charging ahead. not really charging ahead, but trading stronger again today up 1.5%. cable is also an interesting currency pair. trading through 131 now, up at 131.30 there is more optimism priced in on the potential of reaching a deal over the next couple of months between the uk and eu on the withdrawal bill. all eyes on that dollar/renminbi, today a bit of weakness on the chinese currency side of things there you can see that renminbi is about 0.15% weaker. it had strengthened as of late ahead of those potential talks between the two sides. u.s. markets, dow seen opening up about 40 points higher. nasdaq about tf poi26 points hir the best day for the month of september so far in emerging markets, turkey's central bank hiked interest rates 625 basis points to 24%. in a show of defiance to president erdogan. the turkish president called for rates to be lowered. speaking to the turkish media, the finance minister said discussions about the independence of the turki

h forwould be toug mario draghi to pull off.s you do when the economy is getting worse. what they want to do is do -- when theyou do economy is getting better. they want him to prepare the path for finally raising interest rates to back to normal. what they will have to do today is explained to global wall street why they are cutting their growth forecasts and at the same time remaining hawkish on the economy, which doesn't really make much sense. those two things don't really go together. anna: we will see how they are in the same breath -- will in the same breath lower the outlook but then go on to talk about higher rates and normalizing interest rates. it is see -- italy still a big issue. it's back with a vengeance today. lots of reports today. is this something that is going to be part of the conversation in front for? matt: it will be -- frankfurt? matt: it will be one side of the conversation and journalists will undoubtedly ask questions about it. it's unlikely mario draghi what answer questions, -- will answer questions

that was mario draghi that changed that. counting it down. here we go.markets shutting up shop for the day. these are the numbers come up ftse 100 down by .3%. exposed to the global story, one eye on that story as it develops, trading down by .6%. down by .4%. mr. rosenstein expected at the white house. europe shutting up shop and that is where we find ourselves. vonnie: we are going to continue to keep an eye on that. let us have a quick look at where u.s. markets are trading. did not see a reaction to the rosenstein news. the dollar is a little softer. it had a few soft sections -- sessions last week. are back down partially thanks to the sterling and the euro. that is the yield curve now. we have the conference coming up with the fomc tomorrow. are back down partially in the u.s., wtirling andcrudee trading close to $73 a barrel. $81. trades close to the commodity index is rebounding and i will show you why. macro movers, commodities such as sugar are having a down day even as hydrocarbons are higher. does not seem to be much forward momentum on the t

andrew: i think we have a more hawkish view because draghi is stepping down.ty clear they would like to get out of these negative rates. you see it from the german contingent and wages are interesting. wages.seeing pickup in the german labor market is tight. looking at italy and france, some wage pickups they are. the ecb will be conscious of that and we are still talking a year away. we see some continued tightening in the labor market, in europe, that might be the catalyst to get back to zero. anna: matt? matt: could we see -- if i look or a lot of spread peripheral spreads, they had ballooned out. i have italy over germany here. they are coming back down, especially as italy softens the rhetoric. could we see them go back out if the ecb really starts to taper or stops to buy in these markets? andrew: no, i think not. the widening was around the political uncertainty in italy. there has been more conciliatory comments from the new i tally in government and this -- italian government and there will likely be for barons for the rest of europe around italy. thi

draghi words have created : some damage. interest rates have gone up for households and for firms. all of this hasn't created much spillover to other euro area countries. it's remained pretty much an italian episode. jonathan: still with me, gershon distenfeld, subadra rajappa, and krishna memani. for the ecb, it looks like a bit of a snooze fest. how do you think the policy path does adjust over the next 18 months? subadra: we have the ecb meeting this week, and we didn't get a whole lot of specifics on what they are going to do on the policy front that is new that we didn't already know. they're going to lower the pace of asset purchases in october. they are anticipated -- and they were very careful about their wording -- they are anticipating to end qe at the end of this year, and normalize policy sometime in the middle of next year. they are basically telling you, we are aware of what's happening in italy, but it's not really a policy concern as of yet because the rest of europe seems to be doing quite well. jonathan: wh

mario draghi recently talked being broadly balanced.he listed a number of threats including emerging markets, protectionism, financial market stability. which of these or any other are looming largest in your mind? that what let me say we have at the moment is the market essentially being roughly balanced in its view of these things. if the risks turn out to be less severe than expected come that could be an upside risk to the growth forecast. for example, if it turns out that the trade tensions fade away, if it turns out that the , on all ofome is ok these fronts, if we get an ok outcome, that is like a passive shock to growth. on the other hand, if those go badly, we have a clear downside risk. we can agree that ultimately the happens tois, if it be a severe trade, will have a negative impact. but whether that is likely is hard to assess. let me emphasize with the emerging markets because i think this has been a big point in the last few weeks. we always knew, everyone always that the tighter monetary regime and as the fed the ghent t

time following president mario draghi's news conference 45 minutes later.l apple's iphone launches pay off? they lacked major dances but may appeal to more users. analysts have praised the apple pricing strategy. emily chang reports from silicon valley. italy: a big day at apple headquarters in cupertino. hundreds of apple fans pouring into the theater from around the world, excited to see the unveiling of these new iphones. apple did unveil three new iphones, basically a cheaper version and upgrade to the iphone x and a big iphone x. the cheapest one will start at about $750. the middle phone about $1000. at $1100.e starts apple is really betting big on the idea of a family of iphones to reach a variety of customers and a variety of price points. keep in mind they still have the iphone 7 out there retailing in before hundred dollars range. perhaps the biggest news was the -- retailing in the $400 range. the series for watch starting at $399. analysts and investors are excited about the health tracking features. an electric cardiogram on the watch got the t

mario draghi sees relative vigor in week european inflation. we will talk of the euro and bonds and european equities next. nejra: economics, finance, politics, i'm nejra cehic in for francine lacqua in london. let's get the bloomberg business flash. >> the founders of instagram are leaving facebook after growing tensions with the ceo mark zuckerberg over the direction of the app. they have been at the company since instagram's acquisition back in 2012. they have been able to keep the brand and product independent from facebook. were frustrated with it unusual uptick in day-to-day involvement from zuckerberg who is now overreliance on instagram for facebook's growth. its moore will increase share buyback program. they will return more money to investors. this comes less than a week after the number two minor company announced a 3.2 billion share buyback. -- shareholders got most of the $11 billion from the sales of its u.s. shale assets. starbucks is planning and organizational shakeup. chain triese coffee to reverse stagnant sales and rekindle

what draghi is struggling with is inflation continues to be relatively subdued.icallynflation is a target. the underlying core inflation is low. i think the euro yesterday was that hei don't know delivered anything unusual in the meeting. opennk they left the door to potentially not ending the program in december, but i think by most analysts, they would suggest they will end it. one of the opportunities we look at in europe is btp's. they have come back over the last two weeks or three weeks since the beginning of august, but if you take a step back and look at btp rates on the year, they are 70 basis points higher with bund trades basically unchanged. when we look across the european landscape, etp spreads are an interesting opportunity for investors going forward. understandingmore of what the government's intentions are in italy. they seem to be much more accepting of european rules, so as spreads compress, we to think that is an interesting opportunity. i have this chart handy year. -- nejra: i have this chart here. you are short french bonds and german bund

>> mario draghi caught people's attention with his discussion on inflation.w the euro pick up. not sure, just move the deal as far as ecb expectations. the fed, everyone is expecting a rate hike this week. what a lot of people may be curious about is the idea that the neutral rate can be a little higher in the short term. again, it will be one of those statements where they will parse out every single line and comment at the news conference. right now, the market is pretty -- getting much closer to the fed dot plot and what they expect or the rate for next year. it would be -- have to be a big shock to upset the apple cart. scarlet: thank you mike regan. anthony, talk about the fed and what it would take to surprise investors? jay powell wants to make sure everyone is surprised of what he is thinking. he has said he will be more transparent and open every meeting and everything live next year. what couldn't -- what could surprise investors on wednesday? >> they will raise probably in december. you see in the press today is in market starting to anticipate the

draghi has been.if it gets confirmed that germany is not after the job because it is not in their interest in the sense that by controlling the ecb they will be blamed for everything that goes wrong in europe even more so than so far, you're left with finding someone from another big country, the french probably or we go for a smaller country with a more centrist personality. do know know whether this moves you or not that the germans would rather have a president of the commission instead of the central bank or could they change their mind? gilles: it would make sense for germany not to get anyone at the ecb. if it is someone who becomes president of the ecb, there would be two solutions. guns and sticks to his he refuses to engage in the forceful moves in which draghi has in gauged and the question to the government, what next? if the ecb does not want to help, what next? do we need to start thinking about the implosion of the zone? it is not an easy position for germany. the other option is someone

president mario draghi his comments were considered the turning point in the crisis the e.c.b. is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. and believe me it will be enough the european central bank began buying government bonds from struggling e.u. countries especially from southern europe those countries went heavily into debt to save their own banks and were then under threat themselves the financial crisis was about to engulf whole states the e.c.b. financed entire countries it was a highly controversial measure but it worked collapse was averted but the problem of rising european debt still hasn't been solved. so let's talk a little bit about that's i'm joined now by marcus miller from. the union university cent a gallon in switzerland but today you're here in berlin good to have you with us we just heard again those famous words by easy to behead mario dr g. these b. will do whatever it takes to save the euro and it will be enough wasn't enough yes it was enough and it was probably one of the best sentences ever in monetary policy history so darkie did a perfect

tom: mario draghi talking yesterday.n turkey as well that were very carefully worded. let us look at the central bank. i want to look at the ecb and all that is going on. daniele is with us as well from morgan stanley. let me go to you. did you change any of you from morgan stanley? frankly, it seems to me like mr. draghi and others are coming toward the morgan stanley view. daniele: that is right. , my sense isecb use the central bank will this reinvestment policy quite effectively with some sort of operation twist to eventually suppressed long-term interest rates. other is to promise they will not hike for quite a while, the first and only rate hike we expect for next year is in october. that will still leave the key policy rate for the whole of 2019. tom: in thinking and reading for coming off of mark carney and ecb is what these guys do. they have a plan and they have a message. the idea is great, we want to raise rates, but, but but. is chairman powell going to join mario draghi with the but, but, but of 2019? bob:

paul: the euro jumped briefly after ecb boss mario draghi said he sees a relatively strong pickup intion. he also signaled that the bank remains on track to raise rates. draghi told the european parliament that ecb projections show inflation averaging 1.6% through 2020, below the 2% goal, but an improvement. president hasn told bloomberg there is zero chance of a default given continuing support from the imf and others. he declined to give specifics, but set a new deal should be signed soon. the question of failure to pay debts has haunted argentina since it defaulted in 2001 following another imf loan. >> the level of support that we are receiving, especially from the united states of america, the level of commitment of my government and our citizens, , is this new exchange rate a very competitive exchange rate. we are balancing our foreign accounts. paul: global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. up, the coming brazilian president telling bloomberg t

big central-bank news from the european central bank, mario draghi says he is confident inflation willeturn to target levels. special coverage of life after lehman continues. we speak to former senator chris dodd. julie: 90 minutes into the trading day. let's take a look at stocks. hanging onto gains but off the highs of the session, considerably. consumer staples weak, led by kroger. energy shares also a drag on the major averages with oil prices trading lower. stocks rebounding. philadelphia semiconductor index had seen a slide over the past sessions, down 67%. losses in six days. very weak as a late. rebounding stocks. outlier tooing, amd, the upside within semis. setting prices are good at highest on the street. qualcomm reinstating overweight at barclays, company starts $16 billion accelerated by back and we have an apple ripple effect in wake of the product announcements. firstapple suppliers, gain in 12 days. apple, representing 30% of revenue. when it comes to amd, outlier. it had four down weeks going back to april. extraordinary, the gains they have had and especially since i

you and mario draghi at the start of this week talked about inflation being relatively vigorous.used a little bit of confusion in the markets as to whether this was a new signal from mario draghi. >> i do not think it is a new signal but people in the markets should listen carefully to what remember, we is, set policy for the forecast of inflation over a medium-term. over that medium-term, the final leg of the journey, a stronger labor market, stronger wage outcomes. as unemployment comes down, as you see more and more countries coming towards a situation where the labor market invites , theger wages and workers final leg of the journey to the inflation target is kicking in. lane.: philip time for the stock of the hour. posting a loss of 34% and taylor riggs book tell us what you -- will tell us why. >> it started down at the beginning of the quarter and never recovered. report, twitter saw a drop of one million monthly active users and that put pressure on the shares and they said those losses were not going to turn around anytime soon as they continue to fight fake accounts and

really do whatever it took as mario draghi promised back then. well i'm sure that you know there are monetary policy whizzes or you know experts that could come up with more innovative idea of ideas of what the european central bank could have done but if we take into consideration that the balance sheet of central bank is now at more than four and a half trillion euros that's forty percent of g.d.p. forty percent of the value created in the countries of the eurozone this is definitely a very bold move and it was enough at least i can say to convince speculators that it makes no sense to speculate on the break up of our currency union our economic with is in frankfurt. businesses reducing or delaying investments in the u.s. it central bank the federal reserve says the trend is due to concerns about washington in beijing's trade war so far the effects of the tariffs have been modest but they've bush had some production costs according to the fed several american companies want the more towers with their businesses off the president don't trump sai

buyer nick have continued their perfect start of the season with their fourth win and for how mr draghi has scored and won a penalty in a two zero one a shocker borussia dortmund drew one one of hoffenheim high flier her to a high flying her to berlin beat gladbach forty. two while bremen won three two at oxford promoted nuremberg beat hanover and freiburg won their first game of the season and wolfsburg on friday stuttgart in dusseldorf was a no score draw on sunday laver queues and host months and r.p. life's visit frankfurt now here are the bundesliga standings after the main program of games champions byron are blazing away with a maximum twelve points hurts our second with their third win in four braman are up to fourth in the bottom half freiburg have jumped up to twelfth while last season's runners up shall remain without a point now the world's largest beer festival october fest is now officially underway here in germany in the very capital munich some seven million liters of brew are expected to flow at the two weeks elevation the event attracts revelers from all over the world

guests as -- your guess as to mario draghi's successor?a real shift in ecb monetary policy. ,o you expect that possibility or do you think he will conform to the consensus? ann-katrin: the focus of the markets is so much on the ecb presidency because of the reshuffling that will take place next year, when we will probably ike, as first table h well as several others. the ecb president clearly has and room and scope in tone communication during the ecb press conferences, that he has one vote of 21 in the governing but he has one vote of 21 in the governing council. forget the ecb council is supposed to conduct monetary policy for the eurozone as a whole and not for one member state. matt: no one is going to forget that, but that is an important point. thank you so much for joining us. ann-katrin: thank you. guy: -- matt: let's get to the stock of the hour. is worth 50 billion euros, and aerospace and defense company. shares jumping the most in more than three years. this is amid increasing demand for civil aircraft engines. chanrice of six

we have seen a bit attached to mario draghi is in brussels talking to parliamentarians and he is sounding quite hawkish. vonnie: he is talking about a relatively vigorous pickup in underlying inflation. we are seeing a movement in bonds as well. bonds are more often some of the core bonds but he's leading the entire story across europe. you also have a question in the market -- are the markets underpricing the risk of early rate hikes through the ecb? you wonder with the fed sounding hawkish potentially as well, the ecb might be picking up the pace. german a big move in the and italian yields. will get budget proposals thursday out of italy. china says it won't talk about resolving the trade war if president trump keeps threatening more tariffs. they reiterated their position $2er the u.s. imposed billion worth of tariffs on chinese goods. we are joined by the head of research strategy at the eurasia group stop we knew this was coming so what next? >> you can expect escalation to be the tenor of this relationship through the end of this year. there was speculation that the two leaders of

jumped aftereuro atv boss mario draghi said he saw a relatively strong pickup inflation.ys the bank remains on track to raise rates. he told parliament ecb projections show inflation averaging 1.7% through 2020, below the 2% goal but an improvement. measures of underlining inflation remain generally muted , increasing from earlier lows as domestic price pressures are broadening. underlining inflation -- underlying inflation is expected to increase further over the coming months as the tightening market pushes wage growth. >> jamie dimon says it could take a generation before angry taxpayers are ready to forgive the big banks. he says washington did the right thing to avoid another great depression, but admits it could take 25 years for people to accept that. he says president trump is correct to admonish china on trade, but tariffs are the wrong way to go. >> the argentinian president told bloomberg there is zero chance of a default, giving continuing support to ims and others. he declined to give specifics but set a deal with the fund should be signed soon and should bol

for now we don't know it perhaps mario draghi may give away more details even though a lot of analystst expect too much here. but that would be the new thing, the reinvestment theme clearly the third theme will be interest rate guidance, befowhe we get more update on the window for the first interest rate hike whether we get an update here. again, three big themes, of course the additional ones coming through the press conference which is italy and the italian budget, turkey, emerging markets, you name it. there will be all different topics during the press conference back to you. >> all covered during our decision time. we'll come out to you in a few hours time just on the topic of forward guidance, it's interesting that the timing of the first rate hike has not moved since june. the first ten basis point hike is not priced in until december 2019 we'll come back to you shortly >>> do tune in to our decision time special, that's from 12:55 cet. we'll bring you all the interest rates announcements from the ecb, the bank of england and the central bank of turkey >>> also coming up, apple

speeches from both mario draghi and koroda. with me for some final thoughts is jeffrey rosenberg, krishna memani and noelle corum. for the federal reserve, keep things a look ahead to next week? noelle: we all know they are going to hike most likely. we're watching. we think that the surprise is going to be to the dovish side. december is on the price dan at 70%. we don't think it will come out overly hawkish at this point. we are watching the trade monitoring. its impact on growth. we think they want to see it through to harder data and i could be as early as q4 that we see it -- as early as q4. any talk around full employment, i think it will keep that subtle. they are discussing it. we think they may address it next week. jeffrey: there are four key points. the most important part is, do they change the language describing on a carry policy? if they were to, that would be a big point. second is economic forecast. the longer run forecast for the employment rate. how tord point will be characterize growth. i think we will get

mario draghi also expressed confidence on wage growth. >> another closely watched central bank, the turkish 24%.al bank, take a look at what that did to the turkish lira on the day. a big pop stabilizing slightly below that big gain at the start of the session against the u.s. dollar. that had other emerging-market currencies strengthening. take a look at the emerging market index. we have watched these markets and seen a flow of capital out of them. we saw that reversal. a turnaround here as the bank moves in the direction that startled some because there has been great pressure not to raise rates. uber plans to invest $150 million in a canadian engineering hub and investments in self driving car units. i had a chance to sit down with the ceo and ask what has to happen before that ipo is expected next year. >> 2019 is our target. cfo, it ison a important to have that spot filled. at this point it is all systems go. >> what do you need to show the street? profit, near profit? >> we have to show a path to profitability. there are many different segments. there is a ride segment which is the

was the impact of these balance sheets that draghi and others have to face?of those balance sheets on emerging markets? me theaude: it seems to central banks did what they had to do. .hey were in a crisis had not the central banks been bold and swift, we would've had a great depression and we would have been in a dramatic situation for all of our fellow citizens in all advanced economies. the central banks did what they had to do because the situation was dramatic. when the situation is less dramatic, they have to withdraw progressively, which is being done successively because the sequence of events or not the same in the u.s. and europe. they are progressively withdrawing. there is nothing to say about that. it seems to me that the central bank did their job and in any case the counterfactual would have been much more dramatic. that is absolutely obvious. it is true there is not only central banks. they are not the only game in town. you have all the other partners. private sector. the other institutions, the governments and the parliament to -- and the par

this is a serious issue for draghi and this lays a trap for him of his own making. unless he violates the capital key. >> as an investor, this may not be something to be worried about in since months but in the long term investors will have to deal with this in a big way. >> and there's the spillover effect. >> which i'm worried about the most in terms of what comes over here. >> and the politics, everybody talks about the straw man of immigration in germany i would vehemently argue and push back that the afd started because of the financial repression of the german savers. >> we're out of time real quickly interest rates moving up. are you shocked considering the economy and where stocks are >> no. >> i didn't think you were. >> i've got a bet that if the ten hits 3.4 before the end of december the yield on the ten, 3.4, i'll get a bottle of poppy van winkle and i'll be happy to drink it. >> ira harris. sara, back to you. >> let's send it over with a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley." >> oracle is up better than 2.5% but the action has been uncertain since

what are you looking for from draghi for the next 12 months?e forward guidance, we think they have given themselves very little wiggle oom. there's not as much excitement around the ecb as there used to e. exiting qe is telegraphed on its way out. e see to what extent they take into account italy on their periphery in changing the tone of the statements. we had a pretty soft start to the year. making the end of summer more likely than later down the year. >> i would agree. i think it is mostly about the balance sheet decisions going forward, and forward guidance. next year with the ecb, someone new will be in charge. that is a wildcard as well. jonathan: it might not be a german. >> which is surprising. we all thought we were going to get a german and now it is up in the air. it is less predictable. jonathan: that might be positive or risk. >> i think so. the concern that a german might be too tight. that is obviously a big event. the ecb has a huge footprint. jonathan: there is a feeling that ecb policy is on autopilot. do you share that feeli

speeches from both mario draghi and koruda. round of tariffs set to take affect between the u.s. and china. still with me for some final thoughts is jeffrey rosenberg, krishna memani and noelle corum. for the federal reserve, key things to look ahead to next week? noelle: we all know they are going to hike most likely. we're kind of just watching. basically we think that the surprise is going to be to the dovish side. december is already priced in at 70%. we don't think they will come out overly hawkish at this point. we are watching the trade monitoring. monitoring its impact on growth. we think they want to see it feed through to harder data and it could be as early as q4. also, any talk around full employment. i think they are going to keep that subtle, but it is something they are discussing. we think they may address it next week. jeffrey: there are four key points. the most important part is, do they change the language describing the stance of monetary policy? don't expect it, but if they were to that would be a big poin

president mario draghi as well as from the head of the international money monetary fund christine legarde. and south korea and the united states have reached an agreement on a revision other two thousand and twelve trade agreement was reached with president obama's administration the renegotiation is one of his trade policy revamps that u.s. president donald trump has pursued acting on his repeated in the in that big at times complaints about poor outcomes from past trade deals and policies the us ran an overall trade deficit abruptly eleven billion dollars with south korea their six largest trading partner in two thousand and seventeen but in goods including cars and metals that seem to capture mr trump's imagination and attention the u.s. ran a deficit of twenty seven billion dollars last year the renewed agreement leaves the vast bulk of the text unchanged from that obama era two thousand and twelve agreement but removes a barrier to export of u.s. cars that do not meet south korean safety emissions standards the updated agreement also extends a twenty five percent u.s. tariff on south

really do whatever it took as mario draghi promised back then. well i'm sure that you know there are monetary policy whizzes or you know experts that could come up with more innovative idea of ideas of what the european central bank could have done but if we take into consideration that the balance sheet of central bank is now at more than four and a half trillion euros that's forty percent of g.d.p. forty percent of the value created in the countries of the eurozone this is definitely a very bold move and it was enough at least i can say to convince speculators that it makes no sense to speculate on the break up of our currency union our economic with is in frankfurt. businesses are reducing or delaying investments in the united states its central bank the federal reserve says the trend is due to concerns about washington and beijing's trade war so if you fix of the tariffs have been modest they've boosted some production costs according to the fed several american companies warned the motown could hurt their businesses after president don't tru

we are hearing from mario draghi right now.e things we just heard from deutsche bank. saying banking union has to be completed and npl's need to be reduced. he wants banking union to cut on npl's. with banking union, you have consolidation. we know deutsche bank, the running,ion sewing is is considering a tie up with commerzbank. so are people in berlin considering that possibility. let's get the thoughts of peter chatwell, head of rate strategy at mizuho. it's interesting in the abstract to talk about banking union, but i can't imagine the european union actually achieving this, because it involves shared responsibility, shared financial responsibility, which states like germany are not likely to take for states like italy. peter: it is a massive stretch. the banking system in europe is still extremely fragmented. you can see that, how the banks lend to each other, there's very little cross border activity within the euro area. the reason why the ecb and others really want banking union is because it would make the financial s