has he pulled out a mario draghi moment? that is hard to say. mario draghi as head of the e.c.b. is the only one of the key balance sheet. going into next week, are we going to see a calming of the tensions and dialing down of the rhetoric between the european commission and the italian authorities? this is a big step in the right direction. vonnie: what does he mean when he says the european commission will not lecture italy?

draghi is facing.dace: while the decision is likely to be uneventful, the focus will shift to the press conference and the message coming from the ecb. in technology this downside risks. front and center, the italian showdown between the european commission and the populace in italy. we have also seen some of the economic data in the eurozone turnover, a little bit of moderation as well, ongoing trade tensions. a lot of these items are likely to be highlighted in the media and the press conference later this morning. details, trying to see if your looking at the first hike in september of next year. we look at the month until the first rate hike in the eurozone compared to morgan stanley, they are looking at about 12 months. you see this coming earlier, why? candice: the growth and inflation backdrop in the eurozone is quite constructive. alix: the pmi rolling over. the sentiment indicators not holding up as well? candice: the german confidence indicator also rolled over. definitely alarming. a lot of

leaning towards helping italy in some way shape or form but none of none of the sort happened mario draghi said that he personally is confident that an agreement will be found because both sides were seeking a dialogue however this is mainly a fiscal issue and the e.c.b. doesn't deal in fiscal issues it deals in monetary policy and so at this point it's not going to get involved it will however continue to watch the situation continue to watch for possible spillovers should italian banks get into more trouble and should that be the case it may adjust its policy we'll be looking for december to see what's going on you know until now and following the financial crisis the e.c.b. has basically used up all that supply of power but it is going to start winding back that stimulus program of its use in. wa. well you mentioned all the risks and all of these these risks that have sprung up and that are there and are you drunk and acknowledge these risks and said they were there but they weren't significant enough to change monetary policy because a lot of them were country specific factors you ment

because they're selling italy and buying the bunds, making mario draghi's problem even worse.s it end up i'm not sure, but i know that our president yesterday talked about trying to save some money that he wouldn't sign another budget like the last one hopefully many more leaders and many more countries will really think that one through because it sounds like a great idea carl, back to you. >> thank you very much rick santelli now the down is down 384 s&p down 9 of 11, dow is down 8 of 11. e 're back to about 5.5 below threcent record highs. back in a minute here. we perform over 50,000 operations a year in places like this. for the past 15 years, chubb has identified ways that we can strengthen our safety measures. and today, our hospitals have some of the best patient safety records in the country. now, we're constructing new buildings that will define the future of piedmont and chubb is here, insuring our expansion. two million patients a year depend on us. and we depend on chubb. >>> the sell-off intensifies, the dow down 325, art carbon is here as well, usb director, flo

sayo draghi did not anything not expected.lar index strengthening, 96.64.ting, at a weaker euro but it did not take much of a hit following the press conference. vix at moderately elevated levels. crude oil is staying at the 67.68 mark although higher today. the 10 year yield not going anywhere at 3.14%. soft at theeen auction. movers, themacro mexican peso is having a good day. perhaps thanks to the u.s. dollar strength. yuan is not having the best of days, catching cold from china perhaps. to: let's turn the attention the european banking space, shares in ubs up after reporting earnings today as the ceo signals he is making a push for wealthy american clients. spoke to nejra cehic in london. >> our next focus will be on developing more of our ultra high net worth offerings. enlarging and bringing our expertise we have globally to that area, together with family office capabilities into the u.s. and tapping a market that is promising for us and under ubs.- under-tapped for growth, we do for expect $70 billion of inflows in th

what will you be looking for in the new once in draghi's link -- nuance in draghi's language?> i think obviously the reinvestment program is going to be the center of the questions and focus. we will not get new insight into the qe program andy or changes in monetary policy going forward. there is a reasonable amount of policy tightening. which seems consistent with ending the qe and beginning the tightening cycle. anyre going to look for subtlety around the reinvestment program. the question here is whether when the qe program ends, do they fixed the amount of purchases they have done at that time? at the new p,k which will come out for 2019? use the program based on that on that structure? if they were to use the new p, they would favor peripheral bonds at the margin. we are going to get that information today. today would he one of those meetings, obviously there has been a bigger backdrop of volatility. bunds are unchanged. that would be what he wants. told: you say that could toward the periphery. the italians, they have no plan b. talk to me about inflation. draghi, as w

it's the facthat mario draghi lianif fit to call the i government out. and it's that the government does indeed have plans for w spending outsit the eu wants. so all of these things say yes th another problem. >> we have always had to take the chinese growth numbers with grain of salt. ears.ve known that for but the markets seem to be sensing that there is a real slowdown going on there economically since they' been my grating to a more consumer oriented economy. you think is happening over there in and what impact does it have on investors here in thenited states? >> the real impact, the real sign there is trouble in china is the chinese government is taking repeated efforts over the past couple of weeks and months to actually strengthen the economy. that's something they do when they are worried about growth. so the fears coming are not from whatre.s. banks saying, they are from the actual action attentionf the chinese itself. that said you have to remember china is in fact either thege second l or the largest economy in the world. so when china sneeze

draghi seemed a little concerned about that, but how big of a downdraft would you need to see for draghi to change tack? sarah: it looks like we would have to see a lot more. when we speak to investors, many agree we are not at the current place where they maybe would step back a bit. interesting, because draghi did say that risks are broadly balanced, but it also seems like he is trying to do a bit of a balancing act there as well, because he is talking about the fact that they slowly addedging growth, but when asked what would it take for you guys to discuss extending qe, he says the ecb has not discussed it. he is a technology the fact that growth is slowing down and there are many risks out there. italy,ed about brexit, and slowing growth as a whole across europe, but it seems like they are going to stand tight on ending qe when we get to december. guy: cameron, what did you make of his comments, which appeared to be a thinly veiled reference to the auto sector in germany, citing issues that are being affected by the trade story at the moment. he has his eye on a number of key areas

and mario draghi's term is up in october next year. back to you, willem. >> annette, thank you so much for that >>> nick cunis joins u amsterdam. you were probably hearing about some of that, about the race to succeed mario draghi does it matter who takes over the ecb in terms of policy, do you think? >> i think it does we know someone like jans wideman has different views about monetary policy for instance than the current ecb president. i think that if jans wideman had been strength over the last few years, economic history in the eurozone would probably look very different i think it is quite crucial. >> let's talk about something more near-term the plan of the ecb right now is to end net purchases this december subject to uncoming data inflation numbers being met is there anything that you think that could derail that >> no, i don't i think that's almost certainly going to happen. i think we would need extraordinary events or extraordinary economic data points to prevent the ecb from ending net asset purchases at the end of the yea

draghi has any influence over. ecb has to sit and wait to see whether the politics evolves in a way that allows the economic forecast to play out, in which case we will get rate hikes before the end of next year. the policy response with a people is that the bond buying program will anderson, but? it's more guidance that will change? michael: that's our view. the stock of bonds, you don't really need to keep buying them. they would still end the bond buying program at the end of this year, but delayed first rate hikes into 2020. yvonne: i want to bring up a chart showing the btv spread. we can see we are above 300 basis points right now. mario draghi basically saying that they need to narrow the spreads. if it doesn't, how big of a pressure will this have on the italian banks, as well as their funding and budget issue? michael: importantly, because this feeds directly into the lag with the banks and willingness to extend credit. yvonne: so is draghi underestimating them? michael: the assumption is this will be reso

draghi thinks the momentum is there.consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy and gradually rising inflation pressures. kathleen: there are red flags. the ecb sees them. why not take a look? if you hop into the library, these green bars are gdp. s up arounddp wa .7 the last few quarters. the composite of manufacturing and services fell to 52 and change. it is the weakest since december of 2016. numbers like this in the past have been associated with the ecb leaning toward looser polit ices -- policies. that's a statement to keep in mind. the health of the banking system, the fact there's monetary policy banking it up, taken, he says investors are confident backing everything up. fed is committed to continuing tightening policy. kathleen: not surprising. --ell's supporters new the knew the new vice president seasoned banking veteran. here is what he said. furtherieve some gradual adjustment in the federal funds rate would be appropriate if the data does not come in as expected. monetary pol

has he pulled out a mario draghi moment? that is hard to say. mario draghi as head of the e.c.b. is the only one of the key balance sheet. going into next week, are we going to see a calming of the tensions and dialing down of the rhetoric between the european commission and the italian authorities? this is a big step in the right direction. vonnie: what does he mean when he says the european commission will not lecture italy? is he saying it is ok for italy to present a budget not adhering to the european union rules? >> this is a delicate balance. adageis an old average -- that people in glass houses should not throw stones. italy is not the only country potentially in violation of european rules. their 28 countries in the e.u. only estonia and sweden have never been in violation of the deficit procedures. we are in a situation where italy is the outlier in terms of having a budget least in keeping with european rules, but there are legitimate concerns about portugal, belgium, spain, france. and for the european perspective, this is about giving italy enough leeway to not trigg

mario draghi knows this well.s taken the slowest possible way out of extraordinary stimulus for the ecb. he has been slowing down purchases and quantitative easing very slowly, only in the end of december will they completely stopped. he has pledged to keep reinvestment's going and said the rate hike won't come before through the summer -- it is a bit unfair what this means, but it doesn't mean any time before september of next year. that might even change. remember thiswe lesson, he is been extremely prudent not to pre-commit and not to jump the gun on normalizing ecb policy too fast. this would probably be the job of his successor. let's do forget, mario draghi leaves the president of the ecb in late october 2019. guy: certainly chatter about an extension of the program. i think one spanish bank were talking about earlier on today. contribution your to the program and are coverage as well. vonnie: let's check in on the first world news. americans have been given permission to jump the line at london's heathrow a

keep rates on hold today, all eyes will be on the eurozone's growth outlook analysts expect mario draghif the asset purchase program earlier than anticipated in a warning with rome over its budget dispute with the eu. annette more good morning >> good morning. today's session will be all about economic risks and whether these risks also will materialize and there will be a change in language for the ecb so there's room for a dovish surprise by mario draghi clearly the risks have not materialized yet but they're growing. just the recent ifo index which came out a half hour ago, it is showing us again that especially manufacturing export oriented businesses are feeling the brunt from the ongoing trade tensions. expectations are deteriorating substantially. at the same time pmis are a disappointment and also at the same time core inflation was coming in a tad lower than we had expected so this mix is giving room for draghi and his team to be more dovish having said that, though the bank seems quite adamant about the fact that they want to end their qe program at the end of this year, even i

draghi, what would it take for draghi, for the euro to rally? this is the question. there is no plan b. more from the prime minister. let's get back to juliette saly. she has the bloomberg first word news. juliette. juliette: president donald trump says his responsibility is responding to the killing of jamal khashoggi to the u.s. congress. he added to he wants a bipartisan recommendation on penalties. thelso criticized conflicting accounts from saudi arabia and said those responsible are in deep trouble. was. trump: the cover-up one of the worst in the history of coverups. a bad deal. really messed up. they have the worst cover-up ever. is athould have stopped the deal standpoint of what they thought about it. .t's a bad idea i think it's in big trouble. and they should be in big trouble. juliette: expectations for a meeting between president trump and his chinese counterpart is already being lowered by both sides. larry kudlow said the two leaders would meet "at the g20" but warned they may not even agree on basic principles. they are bracing for a prolonged fight

and the ecb president, mario draghi, said a continued selloff in italian bonds could hurt the country's banks and impact their ability to lend. >> these bonds are in the bank's portfolios if they lose value they are denting into the capital position of the banks. that's obvious that's what it is. so you have or one may have -- well, i'm still not optimistic, but i'm confident an agreement will be found that basically you have a dent in capital position, then you have a weakening funding condition as well. all of this will translate into different lending terms. >> that's been the response from rome a powerful italian lawmaker has responded to those comments. he is an economist who heads the budget committee in the senate, he said it was improper for the

deadline day here in rome where the italian government must submit the draft budget they tell mario draghi that the central bank does not exist to save italy. >> the answer to the last is no. it's really clear why that's the case the ecb has one program which is called omt which was created during the crisis of 2012. >>> our roche is waking up to a number of political developments and flash points but also some good news. >> yes, exactly. >> steve is outside westminster as brexit talks have hit crunch time sylvia is in brussels and willem is in rome as the italian government plans to deliver its fiscal plans to the e.u. let's start here in brittain as they have pressed pause on brexit talks brexit secretary rodnick with his counterpart michelle bernier in brussels said there was more to do. we are still weaker down .2. $131.30 roughly on the trade let's get out to steve in westminster for more steve, we thought it would be a busy day on the ground we seem to have stalled. where are we at? suggestions were we're 80% there. doesn't seem like that this morning. >> reporter: no. we're always 8

economic slowdown and european central bank leader mario draghi who worried out loud about eu members spending beyond means. the dow dropped 327 points. and today another bumpy ride. gain of more than 200 points disappeared. buthe dow bounced back again and finished up 64. in man ways the wild ride traces back to last week's two-day loss of more than 1,300 dow points. since then, lot of bumps. >> and the question investors want to know is whether this bumpy ride continues. mike santelli editionnto that. >> stock market hit tushlens in october with daily swings at least 1% in the five of e past seven days and the sharpest drop in eight months. is this another test of the market resil yaens of the first phase of a tail spin into a doob deeper correction of the sort investors endured early in the year appear before that in late 2015. traders are dissecting the day to die magi rations for clues.

is it possible mario draghi is going to have to get dovish again? we are looking at a 10% drop in u.k. stocks. a 13% drop in german equities. that has got to hurt the economic outlook and the inflationary outlook for the ecb. >> certainly. doesexperience tells us it not take much to get mario draghi on the dovish side. i think you can guess that's the way he will go. apart from the equity market weakness we have seen, you must also be concerned about what is happening with italy. they have a long way to go before they make an agreement with the european union. all those things would give him reason to sound a little bit dovish, even if he may lower pd ideathe ecb -- repeat the that the ecb is not going to be dissuaded from moving to the exit. he will probably leave the door open to say that should things deteriorate, they may be willing to go back to more quantitative easing should the need arise. as handwringing continues over the equity markets, we are down. 10-year btp yields thank you so much, mark cranfield, bloomberg mliv strategist. you can f

draghi will be keen to keep rates low.en useful for government fiscal policies because they have a carry trade. they are able to receive money, which they would not otherwise receive. they will also worry about the extent of which, if it reserves quantitative easing, it will drive bond yields up. and then it has gone back to the central banks and let's consider a members of the ecb and falls into real problem areas. i think the ecb will keep rates at current levels to much longer than the market is prepared to accept. nejra: you are very much overweight the u.s. you don't see opportunity in europe. european banks most oversold since 2008. james: i think for a good reason. i look for the finances of the french bank. there's been a dependency on target to an u.s. dollar funding, meaning france is an economy generating -- at the moment. that puts the banks in a risky situation. nejra: what about banks elsewhere? italian banks, some of the banks recorded -- reported this week? interestingly, i wouldn't go to deutsche bank. ger

if i were in draghi's shoes, i would be looking at that we know it is a world capital market there aredid i don't see si -- i did i don't see sing -- >> it is enlightening to talk about markets economics. thank you for joining me jobs friday julia, back to you >> rick, thanks so much. >>> let's get to scott walker for what's coming up at the half >> we are following the biggest story of the day, rates are rising, stocks are falling dow is at the low of the day as we speak we'll talk about that with tom lee. find out if the ten year keeps climbing what happens to stocks. >>> and did you know nasdaq is having the worst week in more than a month how big a problem is that if the best performing index continues to sputter. >>> and call of the day on real estate, retail and rising rates. one analyst weighs in big time today. quk le iba athe day. "sawaly"s ckfter this lows the dow with a decline of 219 points, good for a loss of 8-10ths of a percent no surprise, information technology, communication services on the s&p 500 really a head wind for the markets. let's bring in bob pisani. semis a

plenty to watch with draghi today. "squawk alley" is back in a moment it's easy to trust geico!nk you todd. it's not just easy. it's-being-a-master-of-hypnotism easy. hey, i got your text- sleep! doug, when i snap my fingers you're going to clean my gutters. ooh i should clean your gutters! great idea. it's not just easy. it's geico easy. todd, you will go make me a frittata. you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. so, that means no breakfast? voya. helping you to and through retirement. unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. >>> it is a tale of tech earnings microsoft, tesla, twitter beat expectations last night. is this the start of a turnaround for tekch in a volatile market. henry blodget joins us at post 9 alongside mike san

villa marks is in brussels for us tonight. >> reporter: yesterday both eu president and mario draghi and the european commissioner for foreign air force had strong words of warningor italy's new government and the spending plans. draghiai the iuorioie countr must follow rules. while the ministry expressed serious current about the italy' budgets. senior politician in rom did not reac kiently. one minister said bureaucrat ins pursuele shouldot pont fif kiting and find out what italians want. the they said the you weren warning show italy was in the right. today in rom ty nchzed the eu has no intention of sbrfrpg in the italy air fors but thead blood is unlikely to end soon. italy must formal responder to co which monday and in the meantime the 10 yeyrd peeled the stock market touched a 20 opinion month and bank stocks took ari ham. villa marks in bruisele was alling up. >>> time to loo upgrades and downgrades. we begin with disney, upgr to overbating equal weight at barkleys siting the focuses on streamorg and the potential growth in that area. the price tget 1309, sharz of disney ros

we will hear from mario draghi and company tomorrow.ancials not taking is higher over in italy. so the not -- luxury names taking is a little higher in the target market, not the financials. whatstrategy around italy, do you do in the bond market? alan: it's not a wonderful narrative to put it mildly. a yield in euros is very you can take that yielding euros in at 3% to make it a yield in dollars. the way we look at italy, it's a chickens way of doing it. we mandate what we can, particularly dollar mandates, do we think there will be a default? no. that's crazy. example of japan where the level of government debt is a poor predictor of default. break above euro, over the next two or three years very unlikely. dollars, you into can afford a 4.5% yield on three-year debt and that is attractive. default theon't see thai government next two years. matt: i think there's a way on the bloomberg to look up default risk. it could be drsk. alan higgins will stay with us, we have more to talk about. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast business built the

mario draghi has met with italy's president has discussed the budget.s after we got the government 2019.5% gdp forecast. that was higher than consensus. for 2019, is 2.4% down a little for 2020 and 2021. those figures lower than originally reported. a bit of a concession to investors. the 10-year btp yield rose, closing on a 333 handle. for now, let's talk about the fallout of danske bank. denmark's largest bank has been rocked by allegations that $235 billion in suspicious transactions pass through its estonian unit. danske bank has become the target of criminal investigations, but according to the director general of the danish supervisory authority, danske bank is not the only bank plagued by money laundering issues. yesterday, i asked with the fallout might be. >> the bank is very solid. is exceptionally well managed and other areas. massivenot see any changes in relation to retail or customers. obviously there will be some. danske bank is not the only bank around that has had issues with money laundering. nejra: that brings me to my next question.

draghi commenting on europe. you've got interest rates up fed minutes yesterday. the unsettled nature of the market lately. >> mean i think you see the moves, you're seeing on a daily basis in the market it shows you how sense tifr the market is to all of these things. and it also points to the fact that we need to get return to the fundamentals we're getting into earnings season next week we'll get really into the peak hopefully this will help assuage some of these concerns and show us and remind us that the economy here is on very solid footing. we heard from the banks, they talked about the consumers and their corporate clients and how strong they are. going into the end of the year >> this whole notion, though i got you. focusing on the fundamentals, the fundamentals could be changing, though right before our eyes, because of what's happening with interest rates. >> so the market is down 350 if you're bearish and looking for a further extension in the equities market lower, you look towards the credit markets and they're trading favorably well the other side o

draghi as well.versation with the chief financial officer of truly a beleaguered deutsche bank with the price under nine euros per share. stay with us. this is "bloomberg." ♪ comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. tom: this morning, volatility prevails. of and down, and lower. risk off. the dollar is stronger. thismorgan of j.p. morgan hour. the president goes after chairman powell. from happy valley. and mohammad bin salman will speak. will erdogan speak? this is "bloomberg surveillance." francine, extraordinary to see to see the giveaway and banks this morning. francine: you are right. we

what would be the surprise for mario draghi tomorrow?an he step into the political arena at this stage? >> i don't think he will and the surprise would be if he actually did. voicing a strong opinion of what is going on with italy. if he voiced an opinion on either subject, that would be a surprise. i do not think it is in his best interest. i think it is summing he will address in a cursory manner and not more of a material manner. maintain in the het month, i do not think will want to address politics specifically in the press conference. vonnie: what area of the market are you looking to for some direction as to where the market will go? yields, it plays into so many parts of the market , the currency markets as well. the --ks specifically, what it does for the interest profitability,of where treasury yields go, how much of that acts as a brake on the economy on the stock market, and therefore individual stock names, that would be something to watch for sure. >> 3.13 percent. thanks to christina here in new york. thank you. you can fi

draghi with a path out well into 2019. is mr. draghi going to have to blink?think there was a degree of consistency between the forecasts of the ecb with their projections and some of the language. i do think there is a suspicion negativewe don't see a growth in the shorter term, there may be a case to be made that mr. draghi and the ecb could back sooner than that. i think in the context of what we have seen in other central banks where there have been those on a gradual basis, i would not be surprised if the ecb are considering an action earlier than that. that is something the market has yet to take on board. tom: that is the heart of the matter. you do multi-asset studies. within multi-assets, there is the movable force that events will happen. how are you protecting yourself from these macro shocks within investments? >> we really have a portfolio, which i described as high quality. i realize that is a little consensus in a reflection of what we have seen over the last few months. it really leaves us to u.s. access where the federal reserve interest rate

stephen: the big problem is who will replace mario draghi.ader of the ecb will be one of the other northern europeans. it will be some sort of proponent of hard money. what is the new president of the ecb going to do, cut rates? they can't do that. europe is a bit of a mess. you saw commentary from michelin and volvo on the momentum over raising interest rates. this has stalled badly. i am quite worried about europe. sad place toa leave it, but we appreciate you joining us. stephen will be joining us on bloomberg radio on london dab digital. later, we will be talking about europe with the danish prime minister. catch that exclusive interview at 3:30 p.m. u.k. time. let's get the stock of the hour with juliette saly. juliette: i am looking at the paris-based telcos and construction energy companies. a profits bit of warning that has been raising eyebrows somewhat in terms of the timing. the stock has fallen the most in two and half years. a statement was released flacking problems at not only followingions, -- problems not only at power statio

mario draghi and his team might judge whether to halt the bond buying program.or the time being, he admits is temporaryness and remains manageable. >> incoming information, while somewhat weaker than expected, remains over all consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy and gradually rising inflation pressures. >> the most powerful storm to hit u.s. territory since 1950 has killed one person in the northern mariana islands as theow -- and is now on track to hit philippines and taiwan. it had winds of 290 kilometers dropped.and almost 20 centimeters of rain and cut all power and local authorities say that they could be months before electricity is restored. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am jenna dagenhart. and this is bloomberg. haidi? haidi: jenna, thank you. i had come australia's top-performing superfund chief investment officer joins us to talk strategy. shery: but up next, much more on tech after the short-lived rally. we

will end this year and interest rates could rise in the second half of next year president mario draghi says the bank still sees risks to the eurozone as broadly balanced regarding the e.u. spat with italy over its budget he says officials didn't discuss the matter widely drugs as italy is a fiscal matter not an issue for central bank is but stresses the importance of e.u. regulations. full of hearings to the stability and growth pact is critical for safeguarding sound fiscal positions. structural reforms in your account needs to be substantial. as many companies boycott riyadh's investment conference after the killing of a saudi journalist russia's sovereign wealth fund has announced saudi arabia will become a new partner in the russia china investment fund ria is set to contribute half a billion dollars raising the total capital under management to two and a half he russia china fund was founded six years ago and focuses on economic cooperation between moscow and beijing. twenty years of mass tourism take their toll on one's pristine beaches there is sometimes only one solution shut i

vonnie: what is mario draghi thinking right now in the context of european countries? o.a.t.' the environment generally -- it kind of depends on the italian situation. seeing anly, we are increase in core yields across the world. the ecb's big issue is inflation. mario draghi recently talked about we just picking up --orously test vigorously vigorously.rigorousl guy: thank you for spending so much time with us this afternoon. we covered a lot of ground this afternoon. what is happening in the united states and here in europe. vonnie: it is first word time now. emma: the u.s. ambassador to the united nations has resigned. nikki haley will leave at the end of the year. . she says she doesn't have anything else lined up yet. president trump met with her in the oval office, saying she has done a fantastic job. he hopes haley will come back to the administration in a different role. for the first time in my than two years, the international monetary fund has cut its forecast of global growth. the imf is projecting growth of 3.7% this year and next. the imf blames an escalating trad

. >> what was this central message that draghi delivered today i go wasn't steady as she goes?oday?vered was it steady as she goes? >> steady as she goes for now. you heard his acknowledgment of the data is weaker than expected. that has to be a concern. to be honest, as one reporter asked, draghi said so many things were not discussed at the press conference. she wanted to know, what did they actually talk about? the economy and a look ahead to have the economic projections in the summer might look is the key factor there. >> the dow jones industrial average adding 400 points. after yesterday, tumbling 608 points. the s&p 500 gaining 1.9%. with most of the big sectors advancing led by technology with those big earnings on top. >> relief in the tech sector was short-lived. amazon down more than 8% in premarket trading. the world's biggest online retailer missed revenue targets and google's parent company alphabet also missed targets for the third quarter. overall, is there a link between the two companies? why did they both underwhelm markets? >> the link is that revenue growth

nobody argues with central bank santa claus, whether it is janet yellen, ben bernanke, mario draghi afterig parade, there's a guy with a broom mr. paowell was the lucky guy with a brook what would we do, see mario draghi to put rates at minus 200 basis points yeah, that will fix everything >> rick santelli thank you. >>> up next, more from the apple event in brooklyn. jon fortt wraps up everything you heard this morning meantime, dow is up near session highs, near 280. more after the break >>> dow is at session highs. one name that is helping propel that rally right now is apple, up about 1%. that event wrap up across the waterways in brooklyn. let's head out there now to jon fortt with an update. >> morgan, it is rare to see apple up on an event day often you have the sell the news effect let me put into context what we heard from apple today this will event. we expected to hear about new macs, portable macs, and also new ipads. we got that. what happened here is a recasting of the ipad. more specifically the ipad pro as a computing device primarily. apple didn't talk about tablets mow s

who were you expecting to replace mario draghi and does that make a difference?hould we assume that whoever takes charge will keep its same for at least a year? simon: i will give you the boring answer. i think the germans are continuing. i think they want it. have luckily gone on with a qe program that is taken longer and seen a greater skill they feel comfortable with and the quid pro quo is they get the next governorship. i think what you see going forward is a policy environment that remains broadly agnostic to the present of the central bank because as grand coalition, the governing council, done by majority vote. don't think it's as presidential as the title suggests. francine: betting on brazil as voters had to the polls on monday. what does it mean for latin america's biggest economy? there's a view that it is idiosyncratic if you look at turkey come if you look at brazil and venezuela, argentina too but it all goes down to what the fed and dollar does. u.s.ill get back to the jobs report today and i think that will be very significant. this is bloomberg.

wide variety of issues from economies to what's going on with lack of real significant plan by mario draghi >> interestingly in today's german zew number, one of the factors they cited for decline was uncertainty in german politics it is possible by next spring merkel is no longer the leader of germany and we have somebody else that will lead into who is going to run european central bank when draghi leaves end of next year there's belief it will be a german if merkel is weakened, not sure who replaced her, maybe it won't be a german that runs the central bank and maybe it will be somebody else. >> italy, no conversation on europe would be complete without it italians say 2.4%, that's lower than the u.s but the point is there are major growth assumptions when you model anything, the assumption, those details, that's where everything goes haywire. central bank programmers, hope you're listening final thoughts on italy? >> 2018, growth is estimated 1.2%, due to the budget to accelerate to 1.5% the problem is if you don't get there, you don't get that revenue, then we have a problem because th

. >> what was this central message that draghi delivered today? was it steady as she goes?dy as she goes for now. you heard in that clip, his acknowledgment of the data is weaker than expected. that has to be a concern. it is likely to be a topic of debate within the governing council. to be honest, as one reporter asked at the press conference draghi said so many things were , not discussed at the press conference. she wanted to know, what did they actually talk about? one has to assume the economy and a look ahead to have the -- a look-ahead to have economic projections in a december might look is a key factor there. >> the dow jones industrial average adding 400 points. after yesterday, tumbling 608 points. of course, the s&p 500 gaining 1.9%. with most of the big sectors advancing, led by technology with those big earnings on top. >> relief in the tech sector was really short-lived. amazon down more than 8% in premarket trading after reporting a second consecutive quarter of sales below analyst estimates. the world's biggest online retailer also missed revenue targets a

the week ahead featuring a rate decision from mario draghi and the ecb. that is next.his is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: "real yield." this is bloomberg "real yield." week, ap over the next really busy recover of earnings and central-bank rate decisions. the ecb and the bank of canada with their announcements as the fed releases its asia book. european bank earnings. to wrap up the program is guy lebas, kathy jones, and matt freund. kathy, let's begin with you. ecb, what are you looking for? >> not much, don't expect them to do anything. they have pretty much signal but they will do for the next year. the big issue they face with italy is how they address the situation because the bond market is so huge. jonathan: the italian bond market is all over the place. basis points intraday. >> there is some risk of expands more systemically. if we look at what happened in may, june, there was a pretty quick bit once we had about 3.80. it doesn't seem like that is evolving now. tt, what are your thoughts on the italian bond market? would point to is these things are grea

alix: mario draghi, before i leave, just one more time.we are halfway through earnings season for the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: we are halfway there. it is earnings season. just over 50% of the s&p 500 companies have posted earnings growth. beat, you got killed. what is your take voice so far? -- takeaway so far? >> a lot of this was priced in. what i want to highlight is the fact that the market will always look to or three quarters down the road. they are looking at gdp print. the consumer was superstrong. i think what everybody is seeing is we pushed a lot of the investment into the last couple of quarters and that she bp was artificially high. everybody is getting ahead of that here. rates are picking up. we are at the earnings. you heard those numbers from caterpillar and others. it is going to be tough going forward to meet these numbers. you don't want to get into an environment where you are long against really high tops. that is the rule against investing in companies that are really hot. you have seen a lot of these hig

that's the other side where you are selling italy and you are buying bund and another problem for draghire are so many forces that gravitationally pull yields down everyone thou everyo even though we are at a time where jay powell company is defining what it is. dollar index, one week is just as strong in that chart. time to pay attention to the dollar index above 95.5. should that occur today. carl, jim, and david back to you. >> good eyes, rick santelli. >> as we show you earlier stairs of stitch fix is tanking today down 20% stitch fix's ceo will be with us to discuss as we go to break, take a look at the top performing stocks on the s&p today which is flat. back in a minute ♪ ignition sequence starts. 10... 9... guidance is internal. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1... ♪ don't forget that the past can speak to the future. ♪ ♪ i'm going to be your substitute teacher. don't assume the substitute teacher has nothing to offer... same goes for a neighborhood. don't forget that friendships last longer than any broadway run. mr. president. (laughing) don't settle for your first draft. or your 10t

you have a fair view to what goes tlon in teron do you think mario draghi is concerned to say we need to put some of our plans on hold? >> no. as i know him and i think -- i think he's a european. i think all the other board members are european i think monetary policy has to be designed as a whole the european economy is doing well they have committed to exit qe they won't stay longer on qe they won't stay on to help italy. there are other instruments in case of financial instability. i don't expect interest rates to change just for them >> could the path of interest rates change in the other direction for different reasons? because sometimes what is happening with the global environment, particularly led by the federal reserve, wondering what that's going to do to the global liquidity picture, tightening infect tightening effect it may have around the world if inflation starts picking up, they may have to alter the course in that direction >> i mean, there are many, you know, we have many risks ahead of us. we have the risk that the fed find out they're behind the curve. they may ha

draghi's comments on a jump in rates, or a jumping inflation, i don't really see it yet. you had an estimate last month, super court inflation has rolled over. hitting itshumming, inflation target. the evidence we have is that that will continue to be the case. i noted in a previous segment that the debate may we -- may well be about having a fourth hike next year. matt: the inflation measure they care about the most is reportedly pce. i think core pce is probably the most important to economists. it takes out the things we need to buy. check this out. i was noticing over the weekend that if you look at the -- let's say the gas price. this is the u.s. unleaded gas price. we are now up above the 200 day moving average. that is a problem politically and it has to be a problem for the fed as well. tim: it brings the u.s.-saudi discussion into all the greater context in that there is probably very little the u.s. can do about what is going on related to this story about the saudi journalist. there are some offsetting headwinds. the stronger dollar can keep canation not suppre

the next summer president mario draghi said that the central bank still sees risks to the eurozone as broadly balanced regarding you know he spat with the e.u. of the country's rejected budget mr druggy said e.c.b. leaders didn't discuss the matter widely and that he personally hoped both sides would find a solution. let's bring in pakistan but it's at the frankfurt stock exchange. let's talk about italy first of all quite surprising that they're not talking all that much about italy considering where mr druggy comes from. yes not just the fact that he's italian also a lot of questions in the question around from journalists about italy and that's of course because there was some expectation that tomorrow a drug in the e.c.b. might in some way show they. you know are leaning towards helping in italy in some way shape or form but none of none of the sort happened mario draghi said that he personally is confident that an agreement will be found because both sides were seeking a dialogue however he said this is mainly a fiscal issue and the e.c.b. doesn't deal in fiscal issues and deals

how difficult is mario draghi's job going to be this week? stephen: this year, the next year.d be the hardest 12 month stretch yet, and convincing european leaders to do qe was hard enough. what was your question? nejra: how difficult was his job be this week given this catch 22 with the euro? stephen: he has a difficult balancing act because the need -- the political and economic needs of the constituents of the eurozone are not in harmony. he has to probably another sort of brought neutrality, give with one hand, take with another. it will probably keep euro-dollar confined to its recent ranges, which we think for the time being is 1.1 350. manus: ok. thank you so much, stephen gallo . the european ahead of fx strategy -- european head of fx strategy at bmo. don't miss our exclusive interview with the prime minister of italy, giuseppe conte, at 2 p.m. london time. nejra: whatever you want to call it, we are watching it. next, jacques van den broek joins us for his first interview of the day. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:46 a.m. in lon