new warning from stan druckenmiller. new op-ed. the fed shouldn't be in emergency mode after the emergency passed the distortion is fed induced of long-term interest rates for the economy. we heard from shelton that there is no price discovery when you control the yield. they also say there is big political pressure in the not too distant future that will require the fed to stop enabling fiscal and market excess we will talk to stan about this at 8:00. it has to do with the independence of the fed. enabling the fed to keep the trillion dollar programs the recovery we have seen since the pandemic lows in the stock market and in the job market we've got 70% of the job losses quicker than any recovery in post-world war ii. it has come back more than any and we're talking about 32 months before the fed is talking about hiking rates they normally would think about hiking rates probably right now given where we were in terms of the labor market and gdp and everything else. we'll let him tell you all of this stuff at 8:00 i think we have

jonathan: stanley druckenmiller, famed investor, saying the following.bubbles dwarf the short-term risk on a booming economy in 2022." what do you make of that aspect of it? william: the fed does recognize that financial markets are frothy, but they are looking through that. they don't see it as a big risk to financial stability because investors in the equity market typically don't do so on a highly leveraged basis. in the great financial crisis, it was the leverage that kilduff. so -- it was the leverage that killed us. so they are looking through that pig at they are determined to keep rates low. tom: i want to digress. we just talked to jared bernstein from the white house about this. the fear that growth will not participate in our deficit solutions, this goes back to berkeley and m.i.t., etc. the idea that this fear that the growth won't be there, frame your optimism that economic growth of this nation will assist in helping us with its pen that -- it's pandemic debt and deficit. william: i think it will help because we have excess capacity in the

in fact, i think stan druckenmiller really spoke to it overarching problem with tech starting this year is it's a crowded and stale long people piled into these names last year, because of the collapse of the economy and the pandemic now we have potential inflation building interest rates going up. you know, the white house did go after technology the economy, not everyone believes it, but looks like we're set for this by june and capital gains could go up. five of five of these is bad for the technology and growth area especially capital gains more than 70% or 80% capital gains just in the sector the other hand, epicenter trade wins on five of five of these. if only one or two of these eclipse, in fact, happens, epicenter stocks keep rallying, and tech weakens the move to the 200 day is probably the most reasonable thing to say, take a look to see if this bargains yes. 7% to the outside. >> right a step further, tom, and you talk about, citing a team if you get back to the level could look at a crash-up into cyclicals the thinking is what a new team of people who want, who say i want i

that is one of the terms that druckenmiller used >> what is transitory? what is not? once it gets worked in the consumer pricing and wages does it come back down >> that is why bitcoin is not correlated yesterday to the risk off trade. if it really is going to replace gold. >> was it that or elon >> he did that later with the cpi number like that. gold or gold equivalent. >> that chills the speculation and fervor around that >>> i want to get to the next guest. this is really important tax day is around the corner monday, may 17th is coming as president biden is pushing on the tax plan, the next guest argues for closing loopholes he knows of what he speaks the former irs commissioner charles rosati he and four other commissioners wrote an op-ed titled "biden's proposal would create a fairer tax system." charles, thank you for joining us today so many interesting things you brought up the thing i took away from this is a lot of revenue escaping because people are not following the law and the irs doesn't have the teeth to enforce the law >> that's right, becky thanks f

not the wealthy. >> that was stanley druckenmiller earlier today on "squawk box.nd lots of thoughts, i'm sure, and many other things for the santelli exchange. rick >> yes, thank you, davids. sure, listen, stan drukckenmillr a trader with the midas touch. whether he's 100% correct on everything isn't the issue he's highlighting things we need to pay attention to, especially his last comment i think many forget that, viewing inflation is a cost of living increase and believe me, bottom line socio-economically will feel the pressure more. raises the notion, to raise the bottom, low are the top. never found logic in that. get to the heart of the matter at the crux of stan's argument today and his reason for thinking maybe the fed's been too aggressive, maybe too much sugar out there, the punch bowl's too big is that the fed needed toosolutely needed to std then also step out we all understand why they didn't step out fast enough. they don't want to do it all basically move heaven and earth to in their opinion save the global economy and pull out too early, but the pr

know he said he doesn't even think it's going to make it to the 50th anniversary this august stan druckenmiller is quote very very short the dollar so there's one thing to say all the dollars fading away and it's going to be replaced by that for some very smart people they think it's actually on the within months i'm utterly collapsing how do you weigh in on that. i agree with alistair i think we're very very close. on easy so is the greatest economist and try a century came up with this term called a crack boom you know he saw the hyperinflation in austria after the 1st world war and typically you have 6 to 12 months when the currency collapses when sirin hyperinflationary crack up. and i think we probably have already started to crack a boom in most countries around the world today including the united states which is why everything is going sky high you know people exit in the currency it may take longer than 6 to 12 months because we have more regimentation and more controls and people today than there were in austria after the 1st world war so maybe it's going to be a 12 month or 24 months

when they shorted the pound and forced them out of the exchange rate mechanism he also said stan druckenmiller 5 years ago i said crypto was a solution in search of a problem well now the problem has been clearly identified as jerome powell and the rest of the world central bankers there's a lack of trust but you can trust kaiser for we've been telling you all this time you like he didn't see it 5 years ago we told you 5 years ago now he's saying yes stacy and max are right 5 years ago this no this is causing all the money printing is cause for 10 years and he said the problem with such a bank's yes we did hear yet so stand 2nd milers like oh finally i figured out you know had you been doing it we have been doing stand your performance would have been a 1000 times better you would be losing money like ray dally oh so back in the seventy's when we were talking about when this all began then we had paul volcker to who is the one that took interest rates up to make iggy pop head of the central bank he's the new call of ok he could be the new paul volcker look because it is the solution for all pr

and you can't help but think stan druckenmiller talking about it and wondering what's going to help next. >> yeah. $16. $16.42 that is -- i remember 13 and $14. but you hear my reference to the '70s andrew's next story about the pipeline i mean, i don't think you guys remember, you're lucky you weren't around in the '70s if you are, you're old >> i do remember in the back of the station wagon waiting in line >> you needed odd and even license plates to get it >> exactly >> this is the deja vu i'm having the middle east, crime in new york -- crime in new york city the middle east. gas lines, inflation i mean, all of these things are happening again, the only thing we don't have are hostages iran. taxes going up we don't have high interest rates and the stock market looked good for now. it's just starting to look -- i don't know, i'm having this horrible deja vu from the '70s and there's no reagan on the horizon who is going to come in and fix all of these things, sorkin who do we have when this carter redux presidency is over, who do we have that's going to come in here and start a new bu

when you look at the distractions, the fed, the standard and miller -- the stan druckenmiller exercise, will see class officers adapt to that -- will c-class officers adapt to that? tobias: if you have cheaper funding costs provided by central banks globally, companies are going to look at what are those conditions compared to their return on capital deployed, and they will make investments in working capital. so they are flexible. think about it from this perspective, just how remarkable the response has been from corporate america over the past year in facing the covid threats, not just to their employees' health, but also to the businesses' health. it is pretty remarkable. jonathan: are you still 3800 for year-end? tobias: i actually bumped that to 4000 on friday, driven by the very powerful earnings we have seen. we saw more than seven dollars better-than-expected results in the first quarter, so we took our expectation up, but we still think there's downside risk here. jonathan: is there a compositional shift as well? tobias: absolutely. we are more in the value perspective over t

we also have longtime donors like ray dalio and stan druckenmiller, special guests like cathie wood.also have a very special guest i can't tell you about, but everyone who has zoom fatigue, this one is worth dialing in for. it is an investment in you as an investor. just take the time out, dial-in 9:00 to 5:00. it is chock-full, very well curated, and we are really sensitive to people's time. we are going to give them the most for their money. guy: no hints as to who that person is? trying to break a little ground here. mary: it will be very worth your while. alix: a man. guy: we will leave it -- oh man. guy: we will leave it there. what do you think they will be talking about? the hot topic right now seems to be inflation or no inflation. what do you think the big theme this year is going to be? mary: first of all, dislocations have been happening more in the last year then for the past several years, and that is exciting for people who are active in the marketplace. the whole trade-off, as you all have been talking about and highlighting so well, is the great combination of loss of

&p is almost disguising the incredible amount of pain we've seen in nonprofitable tech stanley druckenmilleralled them stay alongs how do you perceive overall sentiment? pain the indices don't reflect at the headline? >> you hit the nail on the head, carl we can't address what's going on in the tech sector without looking at the elephant in the room that's inflation and higher interest rates what we have seen is that tech -- i mean, they had a horrible week this week. tech underperforming the s&p 500 since september 1st when it peaked not surprisingly, that coincides within a month of the low close and the ten-year yield interest rates have risen, tech is hurt. highly valued or lower earning stocks much more than mega cap stocks but it hurt the overall sector really interesting to know, though, is that the tech sector, unlike prior periods in the past, whenever we talk about tech at lofty levels back to 2000 and say, oh, my god here we go again the thing is, the tech sector has relatively -- only slightly higher than the broader market right now and trades at about 30 times trailing earnings

you've got druckenmiller. you've got chinese inflation data. tech is getting trashed.ow far can you go? alix: it spread to europe, but europe is the one getting hit today. the selloff in the u.s. is down, but somewhat moderated here. the nasdaq 100 down just 0.6%, so we are off the lows of the session. we did hit some moving averages when it comes to tech that we will have to see if we can hold off of. you get tech getting hit. higher inflation, you've got to rerate growth multiples. but you've also cut the airlines index down by 1.4%. you would think you get inflation, you get growth, that's not the worst for the likes of, say, airlines. what is also interesting is the lack of say kevin buying in the dollar and within the treasury market -- lack of safe haven buying in the dollar and within the treasury market. also, euro-dollar now sitting at the highest level since the end of february, not seeing that safety within the dollar trade. so some interesting quirks within the market to dissect. guy: the island sector has gone up really sharply -- the airline sector has go

. >>> druckenmiller's duquesne took a position in citigroup it took a smaller stake in jpmorgan chase will start making more money if yields end higher based on some of stan's comments duquesne added to starbucks and expedia and took a $70 million in booking holdings. duquesne liquidated disney and carnival cruise line andrew. >> you can see what they're playing. that is interesting. >>> michael burry now revealed a short position against tesla a lot of folks have shorted tesla over the years and few made money doing it. burry was one of the first to recognize the profit from the subprime mortgage crisis he revealed his long puts more than 8,000 shares of tesla are worth $540 million it is a bet the shares will, of course, fall burry mentioned in a tweet that tesla's reliance on regulatory trem credits is a red flag. he has since deleted that tweet. a lot of people have long questioned the valuation of tesla. it has gone up and up and up i don't know i don't know, joe. >> i wonder what thestrike price is at the time end of quarter we know what month we're talking about. i wonder if th

smart players like paul tudor jones, stan druckenmiller and dan loeb i think jpmorgan is right. portfolio and we're also tracking 1200 funds. with the soft conference we have at least 3 or 400,000 institutional investors we're surv surveying. i think jpmorgan is right in that topic. >> in terms of the bull case longer term for bitcoin, how much does it have to become a true store of value for institutions to get to the kinds of levels, the 100,000, 200,000, 3 -- some of the bigger numbers if you want to have remarkable returns on bitcoin at this point? how much -- how much do the big institution vs to come into this >> well, listen, we've had remarkable r remarkable returns without a lot of saturation. you have 2% of the world adopting bitcoin now look at the math if you go to 4 to 6%, i think those coins because of the scarcity of them and there's a large group of people, including ourselves, that are holding the coins or as they say hoddling those coins, you can see the exponential liftoff that we're predicting i said to joe earlier in the year, $100,000 price target for bitco

you saw it with the great interview you had with stanley druckenmiller. are people who think the fed is not just behind the curve, they're maybe missing the point and by the time they start to play catchup, it's too late that's what we saw with -- when mr. voeker had to come in and resolve things we had arthur miller as the fed chairman way back. we went for guns and butter. they were accommodating. inflation started to get out of control, and we all learned how painful it was to bring it back under control. so yes, we'll be watching what the fed speakers say, but the great fear here is that the fed is a little bit behind the curve. if the market begins to truly believe that, it will be a very painful change in what's going on so pay attention to what they're saying, but look right through it i mean, they're talking about inflation. sara eisen yesterday did a great interview and put someone in the corner saying lumber prices are at a record, house prices are at near records, and you guys are buying mortgage backed securities hand over fist. that's an abso

holy grail, but it is the currency or the asset that given its brand value, we've talked to sam druckenmillerure, but then how do you think about a dogecoin that emerges out of nowhere or an ether or, look, i'm a big believer in blockchain i'm a big believer in great innovation so i would like to think two years from now somebody's going to come up with something given -- more clever, more innovative than ether, for example. >> no, i -- i absolutely agree with you i would divide it into three questions. very good questions. we talk about these with students all of the time look at your first question, bitcoin. the way i think of bitcoin is a global currency. individual countries will continue to have their stable coins, could be usdc, irnc, leta, anything, but then you go into country, then you go global you have to use a system like bitcoin because you cannot stand in the same room and one is indian and one is american and can't transact to each of us standing in the same group of three days to five days. that's how i think on a globe, bitcoin completely covering the globe. within your count