bonds are back y'all, baby. >> bonds are back, y'all. >> thanks, dryden. appreciate it today. >>> coming up, has the day trader disappeared even with this year's rally? retail activity at the lowest level in something years we'll discuss that coming up plus, everyone is talking about china's red balloon but the companies reopening after covid and now the lunar new year could all combine for a huge impact on the world economy. that's coming up on "power lunch. stay with us. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones sflo. >>> welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. a shift in retail investing. maybe not surprisingly last month's trading activity among retail investors hit lowest level in more than three years according to the firm manda research wrote an article looking at retreat of amateur investors here with us now, the lead writer for "market live" at "wall street journal" as well as cnbc contributor welcome. good to hav

dryden: i think it is still the fed.but overall it is still driven by the fed. we have change the narrative over last couple of years because we have higher interest rates now. tom: what is your conviction on rates? we were speaking to goldman sachs earlier. saying it is potentially up to 5.5%. you have conviction from 5% of 5.25%. what is underpinning that? dryden: there are lag effects people are not fully taking into account. the big issues are it takes four to nine months for lag effects to work through. we have not seen the last 150 basis points the fed has already done. i think there will be desired to take it a bit slow. we have a little ways to go. that is part of the reason we are at 5.20 5% as a terminal rate. tom: what gives you the confidence inflation has turned? dryden: it is easy to go from 9% to 5%. we are directionally in the right way where i think it will be harder to move lower because the services sector of the economy. the supply chains have opened up a bit. i think directionally we are right, but t

oh gosh, our thought well, for now with the small rivers of run, dryden and all about, i think climate change and humans are to blank on the ali this much less water in the go be now the like offered a home on hot water with don't get a handle, my parents teach me how to work with my hands. i try things out and touch things. allie, if i make mistakes and they correct me, i can keep on trying until i get it right. i get, i enjoy learning from my parents. oh, sustain with albert, with them on at around 10, camels still need to drink so we have to have water at 10 more times for you or maybe even 20 times or even 30 more dover. thank in 10 years, i'll be back here and i will be a dance teacher when i pull, there'll be lots of children around and i'll teach them to dad. with me about monte. again, how to work out in nature. i learned from the animals for tampa. again, if i shared but at home and with my family, i learn how to be a good person. my wife didn't take a lot, and in school i learned how to read the right thing, et cetera. if you thought english then was that miss man, it's so ni

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so, you know, we worked dryden in a, something we didn't want to do. we were simply looking at what was practically in the best interests of ukraine. now, germany was reluctant to lead on this. they were reluctant for obvious historical reasons. you know, to how have german tanks, a new crime. they wanted the us to make it clear that we supported this move and it was sort of working out that little dance of differences there, that, that took the time to get us there. but everyone wanted to get the tanks and keep in mind the u. s. has also been sending bradley fighting vehicles and strikers a to you for and already because those are vehicles that can be effectively operated in ukraine. so that's what this was about. got to have effective weapon systems, not just weapon systems that people are clamoring for us to send. the republicans have a majority in the house. now you are well aware of that. can you reassure a key that us support for them will not waiver, given the questioning of ukraine ain't among certain parts of the g o p. yeah, absolutely. i mea

so, you know, we worked, dryden is something we didn't want to do. we were simply looking at what was practically in the best interests of ukraine. now, germany was reluctant to lead on this. they were reluctant for obvious historical reasons. you know, to how have german tanks, a new crime. they wanted the us to make it clear that we supported this movie and it was sort of working out that little dance of differences there, that, that took the time to get us there. but everyone wanted to get the tanks and keep in mind the u. s. has also been sending bradley fighting vehicles and strikers a to you for and already because those are vehicles that can be effectively operated in ukraine. so that's what this was about. got to have effective weapon systems, not just weapon systems that people are clamoring for us to send. the republicans have a majority in the house. now you are well aware of that. can you reassure a key that us support for them will not waiver, given the questioning of ukraine ain't among certain parts of the g o p. yeah, absolutely. i me