a littll later she said i fell on da putt in dubuque (laughter) there's nothing like iowa caucus humormoos, cnn,i ride horses that was nothing.new we are under some really chilly temperatures today. meteorologist steve fertig has next.. you're wwtching n. fox 45 good day baltimore. better radessfor your kids. the acttvity áoutsideá the classroom that boosts learning.... on fox 45 newssat &p3 day forecastááá- 3(break 88))-

davenport, cedar rapids, dubuque and sioux city. we'll watch this fill in.itical to romney. that could decide the state right there, the western part of the state. >> fascinating. all about geography. our coverage continues. counting of votes still going on as you just saw in clive. [ male announcer ] what if we told you that cadillac borrowed technology from ferrari to develop its suspension system? or what if we told you that ferrari borrowed technology from cadillac to develop its suspension system? magnetic ride control -- pioneered by cadillac, perfected in the 556-horsepower cts-v. we don't just make luxury cars. we make cadillacs. >>> almost a quarter of the official votes have now been counted. a three-man race very, very close between mitt romney, rick santorum and ron paul. let's go to clive right now. soledad o'brien. have they finished counting the votes over where you are, soledad? >> yeah, just a couple of minutes ago, i told you, wolf, that precinct one was counted. now west des moines precinct two has the results in. here they are. mitt romne

look over here in dubuque. romney county over here.t's dubuque county right noher. 26% of the precincts yet to report. could rick santorum pad the lead? if you look around, a lot of these small counties, 91%. rick santorum could certainly get more here. you're talking about a relatively smaller amount of votes, because you're in a rural area. come out here, 100% of the vote. over here, 88% of the vote in. maybe a few more votes for santorum. this is going to go down to the wire. this is impressive for rick santorum. four years ago, this was romney county. that's way back. i'm sorry, four years ago, let's go to the republican race. sometimes you hit the wrong button. this was romney country four years ago. santorum has made a very strong showing out here. but, wolf, 100% of the vote counted. as you start to go now into these final prnecincts, watch here, polk county, only 1%, but a larger population center. another key place to watch, story county, almost half of the vote out there. 44% still to come in. romney's running ahead here as w

is a person who has a special, special relationship with dubuque.humor for our family. we were on a stage just like there one four year ago. i, standing here. she, standing there. suddenly her half of the stage collapsed. in dubuque at the best western hotel. and she went down to the ground, landed on her back side. and i said, how are you honey? a little later she said, well, i found on da butt in dubuque. >> let's go to chief political correspondent candy crowley watching what is going on in des moines. you will be at romney's headquarters for tomorrow's coverage, candy. how is romney trying to seal the deal in the final hours before the caucuses? ? >> reporter: you know, wolf, even though mitt romney is probably spending more time here than anybody else, i think as after couple days ago he couldn't even make up to three weeks in this entire election cycle here in iowa. so he has been here less than three weeks while you have candidates like santorum who has been here more than a hyundais, on down the line, ron paul, in the 70s. this was not where

what was interesting, jeff, is essentially iowa's coasts, if you will, the dubuque media market and theouncil bluffs -- the omaha media market won by mitt romney. basically the entire center of the state won by mike huckabee. explain why that was the case. >> it was the case actually because of -- governor romney sent a lot of time in both of those and the eastern part of iowa, dubuque to the quad cities is a higher population region and generally more moderate republicans live on that side of iowa. on the other side of iowa, he won a lot of the conservative counties because he spent a lot of time and energy there. that was because of his organizing. mike huckabee didn't have the organizing strength there. but the big difference this time around, i look for a stronger performance from mitt romney in the center of iowa, here in des moines in polk county because there's not been this relentless barrage after tof attacks again by conservative radio hosts and others, so watch for a stronger performance in the center part of the state. >> with rick santorum, you might expect he could overper

dubuque is 65%. upwards of 6 a% catholic. if santorum is moving it's going to have to start up there. >> chris: one of the keys is romney did pretty well 52% in dubuque. if romney is going to eat in he have to do this there. >> i will be looking at polk county comoin, webster and jasper. if romney is going to win the state, he has got to come out of those places with 25% to 30% on the vote on a pretty consistent basis. >> chris: if these guys can find this much in a couple of entrance polls just imagine what we will be able to dig up once we have actual results to analyze. >> bret: that's right. we will be looking for the first class and coach tickets. chris, thank you. >> megyn: it's happening right now. the people of iowa are starting to caucus, folks. the votes are underway and we will soon know which candidate will win the first contest of the 2012 presidential election season. we are live at all of the campaign headquarters. >> bret: plus, we will hear from our all-star panel along with brit hume, mike huckabee, ed rolli

or cawcation joining us via satellite from dubuque, iowa, please welcome tom cherney, thank you for joining us, mr. cherney. (cheers and applause) you are a registered republican voter from iowa, correct? >> uh-huh. >> stephen: so who are you supporting tonight? >> i don't know. >> well, mr. cherney, some say romney is the candidate of destiny. will you be caucusing for him? >> ooh, um... well... (laughter). >> stephen: how about ron paul? very fashion gnat following there. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. ooh! >> stephen: newt gingrich. >> ugh. ugh. hmm. >> stephen: rick perry. >> huh? >> stephen: perry! >> oh! (mumbles). >> stephen: so you're not excited about any of the candidates? >> well, yeah, yeah, yeah. yeah, yeah, yeah. yeah. >> stephen: well, i'll let you get to the caucus. good luck deciding who will be the next president of the united states. >> (sighs) yeah. (cheers and applause) all right, evidently the iowa voter is a poor predictor of what the iowa voter will do but ladies and gentlemen i am still committed to making a definitive call on this race based on little or no evidence leaving

start in dubuque and marion, i iowa, after that. the latest des moines stege remember poll has him 24%. ron paul close on his heels at 20 two% and and rick santorum surging at 15%. if you look at santorum's surge, he could actually be in iowa voters mind ahead of mitt romney. romney has a lot of work to do in the next 24 hours to convince iowa caucus-goers that he is the guy who can best represent their interests in washington after the november election. it is a bit of a tough road to hoe, if you think he has 24, 25%, bill, that means 75% of people who will caucus on tuesday night don't really support him. bill: wow! what is his appeal then, john? what is his final push specifically? >> reporter: the appeal is most, well, what he has to do, he has to win over some social conservatives. he does have support from a lot of fiscal conservatives who like his ceo background. even though the economy is pretty good here in iowa with only 5.7% unemployment that the country needs a good steward of the economy. the problem is winning over the

dubuque, 92% of the vote, precincts, not vote, precincts. let me make that clear. 8% of the precincts. mitt romney ahead, rick santorum third. if the margins keep up, that's a place mitt romney can, doesn't mean he will, can make up the votes. more of the votes still out over here. 97% of the vote in linn county. romney winning convincingly in this county right now, by tonight's standards in iowa. if you're the santorum cam pawn where an we make up votes? 100% counted. 100% counted. the western part of the state, 100% counted. you keep coming out there. if you're looking for areas where the vote is still out, they are areas where right now mitt romney is leading. they're not all big areas. there are enough votes still out there, wolf, for mitt romney to catch up and eke this out. this is the second time around for mitt romney. spent $10 million in iowa last night. not as much this time. look at the dark red. that's mitt romney now. that's mitt romney four years ago. i want to just emphasize it by doing this very quickly. do this on the map.

county, dubuque is heavily catholic, pro-life, senator santorum expected to do well and the race against that county interesting. and johnson county, home of the university. and woodbury, a lot of people comparing what happened four years ago with mitt romney and his votes in those. you see how it's spread across the state. and jeff, when you look at all of these different places you see the comparison to what rom in i got vote-wise back in 2008 and a lot of people will be looking at just that, to see how he's doing stacking up. >> exactly, and one big ditches between now a polk county in des moines and all of central iowa. he did very poorly four years ago largely because of the conservative radio host who no longer works for one of the biggest radio stations in the state who relentlessly attacked mitt romney's conservative credentials four years ago, that has not happened, so, he believes that polk county is a strength for him this time and some say for governor romney that's the biggest difference and he still, and he wrapped up his campaign in the eastern part of the state yesterday

not far from dubuque. in the eastern part of iowa i happen it have been there last week. edith is joining us. edith, can you hear me? >> caller: yes i can. >> carolyn with is with you too? >> caller: yes. >> carolyn, tell us your last time. >> caller: towel et. >> what is your job? ? >> caller: president of clinton county women. chair of the precinct. and i have been on the central committee for many years. >> all right. is it your precinct that still has not reported the official results? >> caller: no, it is not mine. i received a call at about 12:20 from the state central committee asking if i knew how to get a hold of someone from 22. that time they gave me a name and i tried calling, because it is late here. they were in bed. and the claire was also in bed. >> so what you are saying is -- >> caller: so i came to edith's home and pounded on the door and woke her up and got her up. >> so edith, tell bus this precinct tp is it in clinton county still not reporting the results? >> caller: no. the results from -- it is clinton second ward second precin precinct. and the r

the dubuque, cedar rapids, waterloo but did not do well in des moines. he only one won county in the des moines media market sort of right outside dallas county. and that's where for instance mike huckabee got a huge bump. two other counties that we're paying a lot of attention to have to do with where iowa city is and ames, iowa state and iowa, two places we expect ron paul to be able to, quote, run up the score. but one other area to look for is on the western side, sioux city and in the omaha media market. that is a more conservative area. romney did surprisingly well there the last time. a lot of evangelicals. we'll see if he can equal that and surpass it. one thing to keep in mind on santorum, rachel, as a devout catholic the eastern part of the state the dubuque area in particular a lot of catholics. maybe he cuts into where romney did well four years ago. so it's nice to have apples versus apples at least with mitt romney and considering that all of a sudden rick santorum is the social conservative so we have a lot of ways we can look at the resul

. >>> looking at live pictures of an event where mitt romney is about to speak in dubuque, iowa, theastern side of the state. we'll bring that to you live when he shows up and begins speaking. >>> earlier i mentioned the santorum surge in the pre-caucus polling in iowa. not everyone is impressed by santorum. the surge or the polls, for that matter. case in point -- ron paul. he is polling somewhere in the top three and who headlined an event last hour in des moines just before that event you are looking at, he and his son, gop senator rand paul, spoke with cnn's dana bash. >> reporter: rick santorum is a former senator. you know serving in the senate is like serving in the congress. why wouldn't he be a good republican nom snee. >> he's very liberal. >> santorum's liberal. >> have you looked at his record? >> what makes him liberal if. >> he spent too much money. he wasn't leading the charge to slash the government and vote against rig government. >> dana joins us live from des moines. he also said he was inexcited by the enthusiasm for his campaign. really? is there a huge enthusias

jon: john roberts is following the romney campaign in dubuque, iowa. it is our quick response vehicle he is riding in right now. what is governor romney up to today, john? >> reporter: good morning, to you, jon. we're on the road. we'll take a shot of our front camera and look at that beautiful iowa landscape. on the road between davenport where romney just appeared and dubuque which is his next stop. he is been hitting the western side of the state and now the eastern side of the state in the final hours before the caucuses. these were areas good to him in 2008 and he is trying to make sure he gets as many people out to caucus for him on tuesday as he possibly can. in 100 people in davenport. there was lot of room. he appealed to come out and vote with good old-fashioned values, reminding people after time when their biggest worry going into the weekend what movie they would take their kids to go to see as opposed to will they have enough food to put on the table to last the weekend. he looks toward november hitting president obama on what he calls br

in dubuque and close to 10 in. coming down in the city of chicago ... so we will average that we come out with six and a half inches of snow maybe 8 in. maximum in the greater chicago metropolitan area we will update this data as more information comes in but so far it will be the biggest snow of this winter season ... we of the coldest afternoon temperature regime and months ... wind is northwest around 25 mi. per hour bringing a big wind chill factor ... we will say seven degrees overnight below zero in the western suburbs ... clouds will thicken and the snow will develop becoming heavy at times through friday afternoon into the evening totals we believe will be between 4-9 in. across the chicago metropolitan area ... temperatures will rise into the 20s overnight tomorrow. it will remain cloudy saturday high 26 degrees. it will not be quite as cold going into sunday where we expect some sleet or freezing rain. >>you need to bundle up and get your shovels ready ... it's time now for today's trivia question: yale university is ♪ ooh baby, looks like you

the $25 donation from the grandmother in dubuque has the same amount of pro quo, the same i need somethingemand something from you as $25 million from the coke brothers. or from a labor union or nonfor profit. you don't want to get rid of some of the cancer when you have cancer. you want to get rid of all of the cancer. >> well said. let's move on. let us do international espionage assassination and nuclear scientists. turning to iran, where the killing of a nuclear scientist there is ratcheting up tensions between the united statesç and that country. whatever that may mean, the country is calling on the u.n., iran is calling on the u.n. to condemn the murder of one of their top nuclear scientists blaming it on foreign agents, specifically agents of the united states and israel. kind of makes sense. the iranian nuclear scientist died wednesday when assassins on motorbikes stuck a magnetic bomb to the man's car. the u.s. denied any involvement in the attack. this is one of those that i imagine everybody will deny forever, but at the same time, it's hard anybody having -- >> you might think

. >> live from dubuque iowa. >> des moines. >> chuck todd and peter alexander are in iowa tonight. >> abc's john carl in iowa for us tonight. >> we'll turn our critical edge on reporters in iowa and washington and especially the surge in negative reporting about ron paul. >> this the skeleton in ron paul's closet. this is from the ron paul newsletter. >> so you read them but you didn't do anything about it at the time. >> i never read this stuff. >> why did the press take so long to start examining the congressman's sometimes inflammatory record? i'm howard kurtz and we're kicking off the 2012 season onsome reliable sources." happy new year to all of you. it's obviously not a holiday for much of the political press gearing up for actual voting of 2012 after a year of prediction and prognostication. after treating ron paul as an entertaining side show they reacted to his rise in the polls the same way michele bachmann, rick perry, herman cain and newt gingrich shot up in surveys by belatedly examining his record including incendiary and racist news letters that were published under his

that's why romney won the omaha media market and dubuque media markets at that point, but he lost deswent heavily negative. so this is what we're going to be watching for tomorrow night. can romney duplicate this. what's interesting between santorum and huckabee? the eastern part of the state, very heavily catholic, santorum, a devout catholic, did she make more instance and combine that a little bit with doing well with evangelicals who are more part of the center of the state? this is just a little bit of what we'll show you tomorrow night and we'll have the results going in. we'll go county by county when we need to. lots of fun stuff in here that we can use with the app, just a little taste. we have a lot more coming up. >>> all right, after months of buildup, it's finally caucus eve. >> nbc, i'll give you a little shout out here, has done a great job in following our campaign, frankly longer and consistently than anybody else with the inbeds. >> i love it. rick santorum gave a shoutout to our campaign embed. they're on the road with the candidates and no other network has done it

he has nothing in common with the guy that lives in dubuque, iowa. >> when you look back, presidentse that connection. >> they are not president. they are running for president. >> but it's different than saying -- >> go ahead, karen. i don't think this is about we don't like people who are wealthy. god willing, we could all be wealthy. but the point is what romney and gingrich represent is a broken system. newt gingrich created his own sort of pay for play system. maybe it's historical and not l lobbying, but that's what was going on. that's how he made the wealth. and similarly, mitt romney, i'm sorry. when you have accounts in switzerland and the caymans and complicated tax forms. the system he's protecting and standing up for is the very broken system that means that people like jimmy's brother could never even accumulate enough money to put in modest investments. that's what both of these guys are missing. >> the only thing i would sort of add to that because we're in the 30 million jobs tour. we were in the valley last week. we saw very wealthy people who have created a tremend

i think governor romney goes out to these events, whether it's davenport, dubuque, des moines, he's hadncredible turnout that he does feel warmly about his chances. but i think what governor romney's talking about is his ability to win this nomination. it starts in iowa. i think that's something we have to remember, is that iowa is not where the clock ends but where the clock begins on this campaign. he's going to work very hard in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, across the early primary states to earn the nomination from republican voters. >> if he comes in second or third, is that a romney loss or do you see it as long as newt gingrich isn't ahead of him, that's a win for mitt romney? >> well, i think the plan was to compete very strongly so i think a position in one of those spots would be one where we show that he did compete vongly in that state. i think the most important to this campaign is that this is a campaign that's going to be one that's won over the long haul. if you look at other states, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, they figure prominently in the

we have places like dubuque county all the way on the mississippi river where we have yet to get any returns in but i can also tell you this. i told you about our modeling that the boiler room is doing first and third based on different models. there is a precinct model we do. there is a county model we do. based on those models, throwing out the entrance polls at this point, actually using the data that we have, 1.1% separates first and third. so unless something dramatic happens with some of this un -- this vote that we haven't seen come in, but in the way it's coming in it feels like it's a representative sample, we're going to be here a while, rachel. >> 1.1% between 1, 2, and 3. i will say in terms of those of us whose job it is to just make sense of what all of this means rather than just count it, i'm very grateful that the idea that there is these three guys at the top is the most important thing of the night has been settled already. no matter how it comes down between the three of them. >> and i also think it's important, let's remember going forward, what this means. this

was in iowa last week it was impressive to see the ron paul organization, whether in davenport or dubuque or clinton. wherever i went there seemed to be ron paul organizers. give me your impression. you've been there now for a while. it looks like he's got a terrific operation under way. >> reporter: that's right. they're very confident about it. i spoke to the senior paul adviser tonight. they are, as you know, also very secretive about it. because they've got a lot of volunteers both locally and in from around the country. they do say that they feel they have got their voters identified, that they feel confident enough will come out to win. ky tell you just even in the past day they are lowering expectations for that win, even to come in second as we've seen other candidates surge like rick santorum, wolf. >> amazing what's going on. dana, thanks very, very much. candy crowley spoke with ron paul earlier in the day on her "state of the union." candy's going to be joining us and we're going to be talking about that interview, we'll hear a little excerpt of the interview as well. stand by

the number 21 ranked harvard crimson while everybody else was checking with the vote total was in dubuquears ago i was checking ole miss is 9-4. go ahead, shep. >> shepard: that's all i have. chris wallace with us live from new york. good night. just kidding. most of us don't understand why it all begins to iowa. why iowa is supposed to matter so much. why it should be relevant to people across the country why this place should be the one that win those people down. it is what happens. i need to know from you what happens past tonight. >> you made exactly the right point. win knowing down. it isn't that they are going to go on to be the republic nominee let alone the president of the united states. iowa has a pretty poor record of picking nominees and picking presidents. we went back over. carl rove and i going back over it today george h.w. bush lost in iowa in 19 8 went on to win the nomination. i think it was bob doll in 1996 and george w. bush in 2000 are the only two people who won the iowa nomination went on iowa caucus went on to win the nomination and bush was the only one that we

i think governor romney goes out to these events, whether it's davenport, dubuque, des moines, he's hadncredible turnout that he does feel warmly about his chances. but i think what governor romney's talking about is his ability to win this nomination. it starts in iowa. i think that's something we have to remember, is that iowa is not where the clock ends but where the clock begins on this campaign. he's going to work very hard in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, across the early primary states to earn the nomination from republican voters. >> if he comes in second or third, is that a romney loss or do you see it as long as newt gingrich isn't ahead of him, that's a win for mitt romney? >> well, i think the plan was to compete very strongly so i think a position in one of those spots would be one where we show that he did compete strongly in that state. i think the most important to this campaign is that this is a campaign that's going to be one that's won over the long haul. if you look at other states, new hampshire, south carolina, florida, they figure prominently in th

he won here in the eastern part, davenport, cedar rapids and dubuque. he won out here in the west. this is the key area to watch for romney tomorrow night. if romney is doing well out here again, then he could be on the way to winning iowa. the big question is can he keep these conservative voters? this is evangelical country. one thing we don't know is this is the first presidential election where we know the tea party is a force in the republican party. the darker the color, darker green or almost black, these are areas of iowa where voters say i identify with the tea party. a lot of evangelical voters here four years ago, a lot of tea party voters in these areas as well. do they come together around one candidate or are they fractured, are they split? that's what mitt romney is hoping for. another quick point i want to make. candidate visits often make the difference in iowa, yet mitt romney, that's his color, he's been in iowa the least. rick santorum, he's the candidate who has visited all 99 counties. which one of them will emerge tomorrow night. the old fashioned way, hand t

that's dubuque, quad cities, things like that, and the omaha media market, sioux city media market, he did there surprisingly well. but in the center of the stay, in des moines, for instance, he lost it. huckabee did very well in the more rural portions of the state, where there is a lot of social conservatives. and so tonight, what will be interesting is, look at what mitt romney got last time, dylan, 25%. that's what he's polling in the polls today. it's taken him five years to go from 25% to 25%. but is that a winning number tonight? you had four years ago social conservatives sort of coalescing around mike huckabee. that gave him that nine-point victory. will it happen this time? can santorum get that? i think that's the question. where's the rick perry number? where's the michele bachmann number? if they keep fading, as it appears that they're doing and those numbers go into santorum, that would help. you brought up the ad spending. i do think it's fascinating to note the campaign that has spent the most money is rick perry. he may finish fifth tonight. the campaign that has spent

chicago controller steve mcgreevey was doing all he could to help the pilot of a piper seneca land in dubuquewa during a spring storm. >> turning hard right. come back to the left about five degrees. >> controller mcgreevey realized ice was weighing down the plane pushing it off course. >> the worst case scenario is the aircraft is no longer able to fly because of the amount of ice buildup on the air frame. >> don't make any dramatic changes in your heading or anything. >> reporter: repeatedly he reoriented the pilot and plane and tried again. >> the tower says you are cleared to land. >> thank you. >> well that was dramatic. that was tom costello reporting. that's it for news 4 at 5:00. news 4 at 6:00 starts right now. >>> tonight at 6:00 we're following two big stories. it's the final push before the south carolina primary election and the race that seemed certain is now in flux. >> but first brace yourself for winter weather. the same system dumping snow and freezing rain in chicago is headed our way this weekend. good evening. i'm pat lawson muse. >> i'm doreen gentzler. jim vance is off