historically, e.m.ies don't start to decline until you see imports, the trade balance begin to deteriorate. we are not there yet. until you begin to see too much credit growth, we're not there yet. so rather than trying to time it in terms of periods, i think you sea there are things you look for, a surge in credit and a surge in imports. until you see those you can reasonably confident. joe: you are here in new york, i assume you are meeting clients there and you have been traveling. on this question of sentiment, does it feel like people have moved in or are people skittish and potentially could move in? paul: sentiment is very positive. we've seen very strong in-flows this year, but the questions flick very quickly from e.m. is doomed to is it too late to put your money in, so i keep coming back to this idea, just watch imbalances. as long as trade is in surplus you should be ok. scarlet: so when you look at e.m., which markets or which products is the enthusiasm a little too overheated versus where

the debate over e.m. will continue. monday resenting us with .his about $2 billion in cash, $2 billion to boost its offering of home dialysis devices. they will pay $30 per share for the massachusetts-based company. it will be financed with cash and debt. in may, it plunges to as much as 31%. down 12% this year. vonnie, how is it looking? vonnie: at the end of last month, we were talking about how the vix might spike in august. heard our guest early talking about how maybe we are putting in a bottom, but he is the chair. -- but he is not sure. see, crude oil is 48.68 as opecat and non-opec countries continue. we are seeing some buying in sovereign bonds in south africa. this as we look to the no-confidence vote. there are some other interesting trends there. we should talk about china as well. that is all that we have time for at the moment. the bond markets are clinging to the idea that inflation will make a comeback. blackrock says it is only a matter of months before inflation is back at 2%. liz, they are clinging to

into e.m., where the opportunity for return is much higher.: i was speaking with mike buchanan, who said local currency e.m. debt, highest conviction but so far this year. lisa: and he is not the only one, i am sure. the market closes next. we have less than four minutes until the close of trading. a mixed picture heading into the close. ♪ ♪ >> what did you miss? there is little bit of it as an end. trading volume is really light at two is of losses in equity. i am joe weisenthal. scarlet fu and juliet are off today. if you are tuning in live on twitter, we want to welcome you for our closing bell coverage of everything. >> we begin with our market minutes. this is a listless day of trading. we are seeing stocks bounce around from gains and losses. we see this throughout the day. we have gained at some point throughout the day and losses at some point during the day. it was like a nasdaq is the loan of the major opportunities to finish in the red. each managerhe dow about a 10th of a percent gain. trading volume has been quite like today. -- l

mark: does the e.m. trade unravel and worst-case narrow? -- in the worst-case scenario?ames: a lot of what is going on happened partly as a function of exit liquidity and the need to go down the quantity spectrum and lisk spectrum -- some of that will definitely unwind. mark: james athey, fixed o income investment manager at aberdeen investment. why shopping online has led to $10 billion acquisition in the e-commerce space. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. mark: live from london come i'm mark barton. let's take a look at the bloomberg business flash. shares of mylan falling today. the drugmaker hit by a wave of generic price cuts. it's already hurt other companies. mylan posts second-quarter estimates.at miss american worker productivity picked up in the second quarter. according to the labor department, employee output rose as an annual rate of .9%, beating estimates. rodriguez plans to capitalize on the retail crisis a party license to in the miami area -- looking for shuttered brick-and-mortar locations to fuel their expansion. that is the bloomberg busi

is potentially bleeding over ,nto trade sanctions for china which would have a deleterious effect on e.mdexes. itus: citrate or is political risk? which is the bigger one in your mind? the trade risks are in expression of the political uncertainty. when you talk about risks out there, inflation is something we continue to watch closely because that will send the central banks to change the policy. manus: thank you very much, mark haefele joining us this morning. next up is kees van dijkhuizen. manus: 6:30 a.m. here in the city of london. the nikkei down by 1.4%. donald trump aiming directly at north korea in terms of what they can expect. over to the fx board, you can see the yen is rising and the dollar falling. this is one of the biggest utilities in germany. euros.ome 881 million dividend,mes to the the first half adjusted net rises 46%. that is a comfortable beat for the company. the adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, 12% in terms of first quarter. earnings adversely affected. confirming for your outlook for 2017 in the range of 1.2-1.5. 25t has been reduced to billion euro

if you are looking at the e.m. trade throughout the world and the last several years when the dollar was strengthening, there was a massive divergence if you think we're seeing some convergence between central bank, the u.s. perhaps doesn't do too much, dollar could continue to weaken, that likely will continue but i think dollar is instrumental. >> do you want to answer the question on whether the market can deal with the high growth tech stocks? >> sure. >> no coincidence tech is down a half a percent and the s&p is down a little more than 1. >> the market i think this year has basically gone through a lot of different rotations and the rotation has basically been through growth and value, growth and value. and i think in order for the value to grow you need a catalyst absent a catalyst, money defaults into growth trade what could that catalyst be? we've talked about this many, many times potential tax reform or people perhaps adding some high probability there. you will see a lot of your airlines, autos, retail,

let's talk about the brexit from e.m., we have a cracking piece and they are looking at the metrics anding brexit premeeting -- premium is dissipating. they looked at stocks and implied volatility. ,hey are back at 2015 levels credit default swaps. the euro is more volatile. there is the rise there but is there still a brexit premium in gilts and sterling in the markets or is it saying? john: it is changing in nature. this is a slowed emotion -- slow-motion showdown. that is what we see in the first half of this year, every recent to think it continues. this is a story about a chronic relative weakness in the u.k.. it is not the catastrophic collapse that some feared after the referendum immediately after. brexit is a significant headwind, it is a persistent one n acute one.a anna: thank you for your time. ands: a host of earnings the below ceo joins us for the first interview of the day. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ what should i watch? show me sports. it's so fluffy! look at that fluffy unicorn! he's so fluffy i'm gonna die! your voice is awesome. the x1 voice remote. xfinity. the future of

when things are picking up in macau and people are gambling, it is often a good sign for e.m.macaue gaming revenue of nearly 30% year-over-year. the blue line is a ratio between em stocks and global stocks. they track each other pretty well. when macau gaming revenue started rebounding, a few months later em stocks started rebounding. with that acceleration in macau let's see if that continues to be a good sign, all kinds of animal spirits percolating. scarlet: i love how joe gets so excited about macau getting revenue. let's focus on oil prices. $50 a barreloff today. forget about being there sure bullish on oil. they are pulling that's off the table overall. this chart looks at the total number of wagers on wti. either rising or falling. it has reached the lowest level since in november. the yellow line shows you the last time it was a slow. short-sellers have been setting the tone. , then plummeting rebounding as bearish bets retreated. long positions on wti have not changed that much since may. everyone looking for some sign of evidence the global oil market is balancing b

that is an early warning indicator, e.m.arry trades may come under some pressure, especially if central banks gathering in a couple of weeks indicate that the fed is on , the ecb taper is coming. not entirely in the price. mark: there is plenty coming up. mark carney warns the you can economy -- warns the u.k. economy. rbs is back in the black. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: let's get the bloomberg business flash. ianz the record inflows. -- some record inflows. the fourth consecutive flow it inflows. has -- haveazda agreed to invest into a u.s. plant. in oil trader is closing down his office. the capitulation comes after oil prices. his selection find lost almost 30% in june. that is the bloomberg business flash. brexit is carney says casting the biggest shadow over the u.k. at comic -- economic output as uncertainty looms. he says there is only so much the policy can do for the central bank. the u.k. economy is beginning the process of adjusting to a new and insurgent economic relationship with the european union. return pol

if you look at things like the dollar-denominated e.m.ets, about three quarters of the net issuance this year has been chinese companies. chinese companies are borrowing much more than emerging-market corporates anywhere else in the world. there is a lot of leverage which continues to build up. francine: guy stear, head of fixed income research at societe generale, and ashok shah, thank you for your time. how the sec is working on a plan to sidestep european regulations. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. have fallens in wpp by as much as 12%. that is after the world's largest advertising company cut its full-year revenue forecast as clients slashed marketing spending. the company said like for like revenue and sales growth is expected to be between 0% and 1% in 2017, down from an earlier 2% forecast. u.k. companies are getting more worried about the economy and feeling less confident. the recruitment and employment confederation says an index of ec

i understand you are backing off the e.m. zone.ri: we are backing off some areas in emerging markets. alex dryden: for us, it is the area of commodities. seere starting to see, we this table in commodities. what could give it the next light up? that could kick up in demand. we have had a couple of good weeks in the sector but that has been on the back of temporary chinese stimulus that we think will fade once the major elections have moved past this into 2018. we can see what the big pickup is in the demand side. i know there has been some selling off in the last few days but this is the region that does well when the rest of the world as well. when consumers in europe and the u.s. get a job and they feel like they have more money in their pocket, they go out and buy phones, tv, cars, the past to which is in southeast asia and that is where we think there is opportunity. get 30% offkorea gdp from exports which we think will get boosted as the developed market economies pick up speed. alix: one of your conditions calls is short trea