does that ask you this that would be for the crossing uh with, with the outside will be on uh, east haven. but my wife was saying this also some maybe some speaking or advantage or what is happening to spray it at the air filter to different countries within the switch. or we might also have to lose the king, but to speak to the passenger stage of tax begins bouts of wisdom, interest pro, just readings, and asked me to ask. so this is really rough. see if everything drops the situation . look, just to the middle is but up to the glue we buy top. this printed off will be a. and of course not the same. it's the same in us return, right? yeah, it's nice and if it gets cities so surely the ask security reputation as to what is going on. what that would like me to print on data additional for me to especially the way to come probably ways to. ready c, describe because this sabrina, across all of these we are seeing is showing the something we offer before. read the box. all right? we have to leave you here. now. i deep savvy executive director of the dr. case center for human secuity and peace

one, we have seen bond yields pull back as a result of the safe haven demand given the conflict in the middle eastand, then, two, the fed. two striking a dovish note suggesting we may be near the end of the fed hiking cycle. we may see them pause by the end of the year. that seems to be enough to get stocks going and the rally in sovereign bonds in the flight to quality trade. breaking it down by markets. this is what the different boards are doing. a widespread rally and broad based gains. ftse 100 is up 1.4%. ftse mib is up 1.5%. the swiss market support .90%. still higher. very strong buy signal coming from the equity market. from the sector perspective, this is the most clear buy signal and this is all about a cyclical narrative. basic resources up 2.8%. autos up more than 2% this morning. real estate and travel on the downside with underperformance in oil and gas after yesterday with the strong outperformance in the energy stocks with the price of oil rallying 4%. let's break it down and look at the sectors that were in focus yesterday on the back of the violence in israel. you see how they a

and with the middle east conflict fueling a flight to havens, the strongest gains in six weeks. netanyahu saying retaliation for the hamas attacks have only started as a militants worn they are prepared to kill hostages. and chaos around the world cup is angering fans. overall, this is what we have with markets. right now, there we go. you can see that generally speaking the bond market is well bid at the moment. yields. the first cash session this week after the columbus day holiday in the u.s. we have 10 year yields in the u.s. at 4.63%. we are looking at what is being interpreted as no more interest rates hikes this year coming from jefferson and mary daly and of the dallas fed president larry logan. let's look in thailand. we have the market up .6%. the currency has strengthened overnight. and the dollar index moving to the downside. and the indian session suggesting a move to the upside. it is also consumer confidence which is up to three year highs which has also generated some positivity. oil markets are steady and holding on the gains we have seen in the last 48 or 72 ho

the last tracks of reaching the 50 states, the dublin was built as a safe haven for all the persecuted minorities in the middle east. but the problem with the system with this country is that we couldn't build the system that answers the diverse society that you have and 11. and it's about having a diverse society living in a unique to the system and the system not answering the needs of the domain. on the 11th, if you ask someone, would you as it has it either from your own site that might be caught up, or somebody from the defense search, but you don't for any, think of them to choose this one. it's main, you know, when you understand this and you understand that the problem is within the system didn't understand why these people are correct. and when they come to office, they don't work for the benefit of the states and the citizens. they worked for the method of the party and did 3. the knew how society that historically been hard job in terms of power and well by these different confessional leads from these different religious and social groupings. and it just becomes a kind of a lead cabal to extract the wea

east analyst, there with us. markets are on edge as we await the gaza offensive. the demand for safe haven asset is seeing limited demand. there is the prospect of price swings hunting investors. let's get more from our chief rates correspondent for asia, garfield reynolds. this is almost an impossibility as to how we set up this week knowing that we are bracing for further development from the middle east. garfield: if you look at what went on on friday, you have a move into a series of haven assets, and also into oil. the market was, to some extent, getting ready for, not necessarily of worst-case scenario, but a worse-case scenario into the weekend. that was a possibility, that over the weekend we would get some sort of severe escalation that could send oil prices up and could also cause this one of geopolitical tensions that concerned investors out of riskier assets such as equities, into -- that can send investors out of riskier assets such as equities, into bond, gold. in times past, including japanese yen. but they didn't go there for an affordable reasons. this morning traders are

spread into the other countries in the middle east and i mean in that scenario i can see oil and gas supplies being disrupted and the global economy in the safe havenery: usually what happens with geopolitical tensions it's not the first time we fed conflict in the middle east what does that mean for safe havens like the dollar and japanese yen and swiss franc? >> yeah, so historically speaking the dollar bonds have been inconsistent and i think that comes down to the driver of the dollar. so recently the dollar has become positively correlated with oil prices so in previous years the correlation had been negative, so if we see a surge in oil prices the dollar can benefit this time around despite market volatility. shery: what is a bigger factor when it comes to the yen for where it goes from here? rate differentials or geopolitical tensions and safe haven moves? >> i think the u.s. trade differentials are going to be a major determiner of dollar-yen in the near term. the gap is wide at the moment and i think the risk to dollar-yen has become more balanced just because we have seen heightened speculation that the bank of japan might try to pause yi

the images are stunning, fallout from the middle east, but for the investors. many finding a safe haven us bonds, that since interest rates tumbling. stocks advancing, really advancing when it comes to the dow, not the scenario many feared. even oil prices eased. that might change but for those fearing a repeat of what market and oil prices did 50 years ago and it to the last big attack on israel, nothing even close. no oil prices, no embargo, no gas line, not even fears of one for now. today, we examine why this is happening as this war spirals out of control. i am neil cavuto. we have a war raging half a world away and stocks far from falling, they are going along for the ride. before we get to what the president might say in less than an hour and what a tour guide witnessed from the hamas attack that brought us to where we are now, a very quick look at the markets. you see with the dow up 260 points. the major averages, look at the nasdaq, this will melt down, people have been buying bonds, not a big surprise, that draws up more the yield comes down. and a 4. 90% level, just a matter

and with what has happened in the middle east over the weekend, bonds are likely to compete -- be a safe haven that. yields are back, but that is a starting point, what tells you that the bottom is closed in on loan data treasury? >> i'm not saying the bottom, i am talking about a tradable bottom. i track it -- a series of technical indicators, and if you look at it deviation from the mean, bonds were three standard deviations below the mean. if you look at the average range, bonds are worth three ranges below their mean, that's a 21 day exponential moving average. these are levels that major financial instruments like bonds and equity indexes struggled to maintain over the long-term. >> he also put a lot of store in the idea of this contrarian signal of core reaches. what is that telling you? >> the core ratio has been climbing, and what i look at is the 10 day moving average of the core ratio, which got above one. what it shows me is that we have seen an excessive amount of buying, an indication that bearishness has become excessive. everybody has wet the bed so to speak. put option -- a put

snp's lisa cameron has announced her defection to the conservative party, the east kilbride strath havendidate at the next general election. she's blaming a toxic culture at at the party westminster group, she said . and westminster group, she said. and she said she's quit because of this toxic culture. richard tice your thoughts on that? >> this is actually really, really significant because you might have expected her to go to alex salmond's alba party because obviously both alba and the snp , they're the snp, they're pro—independence in scotland . pro—independence in scotland. the fact that she's gone to essentially to a unionist party and gone all the way over to the conservatives is it's almost unprecedented , actually. it unprecedented, actually. it really is. and she's she's focussed on and this is very damaging for the leadership of the snp the bullying and toxic atmosphere in the snp westminster group, which is a pretty pretty serious allegation . it really is. >> rishi sunak has said he was delighted to welcome her. he called it a brave and committed mp , but of course her mp,

east. we see perhaps a move out of some of the havens of choice and yields pushing up. we have the fed and what we see from the treasury in terms of bond issuance. we are looking at crew just off by 3.5%, really playing into anxiety when it comes to israel and hamas. let's look at the risk asset of choice, crypto. not much volatility on the day. we are seeing such buying in the previous week and liquidity here. we are seeing a level being sustained for now as the dollar is on the downside. ed: three single names i am watching. the first is apple. also an emphasis on trips. we think they will unveil the m3 processor. then we can earnings thursday, big week for apple. meta-up 2.5%. we will have an ad free, subscription-based version of the facebook app and instagram. one interesting name we are watching is the main one of the show. we are down 1.7% following the open. we were up almost 15%. that is a big swing to the downside. upgrading revenue guidance for the year, deposits tripling from a year ago and coming in ahead of expectations with this is an interesting stock re

the same escalation that people had expected with what is going on in the middle east when our bonds going to act as havense not the economy but the economy is seeing headwinds. that is what people are focused on with the middle east and the conflict. joining us is barbara reinhardt. our treasury still haven? barbara: we think they are. we think bonds are sharing their best value in the better part of the past if teen years. right now on index securities, you can get a 2.5 percent will yield inflation if you hold bonds to maturity. we think because will yields are now positive, they are acting like a ballast against equity market portfolios. we think the correlation of returns between stocks and bonds starts to return to some level of normalcy. this is the first time since the global financial crisis that he can say bonds are material value for all types of investors. lisa: how do you make that determination if it is not just about the fundamentals but how much do u.s. cells, where buyers will come from if the bank of japan manages yield curve control? how do you parse out the technicals versus the fundame

. >> or potentially an offset of the bonds because of the bid for safe havens in general given what's happening in the middle east at this point. >> but the flight to quality would be short-term, right if you don't want to take duration risk. and they're paying you 5, 2, 3, whatever it is right now. >> in terms of the pain that's out there, there's been no place to hide. a lot of people and because rates historically in the last 15 years for a lot of folks, especially in the advisory community, any time you saw rates go higher, it was an opportunity to get investors into higher yield environments i think the destruction there's been in moving people out the duration curve has been incredible, especially even in relatively conservative parts of the treasury curve and aaa corporate and immunities and whatnot. i just think that's what has the investor community unnerved. a lot of people relatively new and this hasn't been an easy time to do that. >> turning to today's pce data and what to expect from next week's fed meeting, dana peterson joins us onset. welcome to the show. are you expecting a pause? what do you th

east main. hon. yes. in on correct. the 2 men have met many times of the years, and the israel has accused toughie of providing a safe haven to members of the group. during his move in 2 decades impala ad one has always been a sub and support health, the palestinian cause. and it resonates well with many here in turkey to this day, he refuses to classify him, us as a terrorist organization. unlike most of his west and allies, along with the wrong and culture of turkey, a is a central actor that enables from us as activities on an international scale, you know, add on, move systematically to essentially ensure that i'm off bound, office space, diplomatic recognition, and hovering or from us leaders and operators inside of turkey the following. how mazda is that falsities in israel and october 7th. and one has been trying to use his times with the militant group to play a mediating role. tech issue, official say they all negotiating the release of hostages health by him us in the gaza strip. but how much influence does ad one's government have that remains to be seen my my own view on this. we've been suggested through his i

media industrial complex that show israel as this haven for the lgbtq community that show israel as its democracy and progressive place in the middle east whereas its neighbors are backwards. i think the fact that what we're witnissing today, the success of the resistance, the advancements of the resistance just shows how "i'm very sorry, pathetic and weak their intelligence really is, how cowardly their entire basis, operation basis has been so far from exactly 1948 till right now, the fact that westted media is not showing the success and the advancements of the palestinian resistance, but it's rather showing israel as victim with the same narrative that israel has a right to defend itself, is sad and i think no people are no longer falling for it, the way that you see the discourse happening on social media, you can understand stand, you can see how people have been awakened that actually palestine has a right to defend itself, that these israeli sedf for all combattant are all part of huge terrorist movement that have been suppressing and oppressing palestinians for decades and right now, their uprising the the resistance actions th

east. let's get to annabelle. are we seeing much momentum when it comes to safe havens at the moment? annabelle: yeah, something we have been really really monitoring over the past couple of weeks with investors moving in, moving out based on the level of escalation but certainly in the prior session a flight to safety has been a big focus. you can see for instance the euro versus the swiss flank near the lowest level since 2015 and the japanese yen as well. there has been a bit as we've seen further dollar again, another safe haven play, also amid higher treasury yields and when you take a look so far we are again seeing the aussie and kiwi 10-year yields pushing higher, so when you have that environment and that move into safety and of course you have oil prices as shery was binging at the top of the hour, but we saw that spike in oil even though wti is flat but not a great environment really for equities as we know and you can see sydney futures for instance online in less than an hour but a drop of more than 1% and also kiwi stocks trading in the red. what will be interesting in t

haven trade. we're worried about geopolitics, what's happening in the middle east, and then deterioration of the u.s. economy forces people into treasuries. what do we make of that? >> yeah, i mean, you know, our overall view is a soft landing. there is always the risk of a potential recession or stronger for los angnger is a sense. your yields could go higher and equity wills calm down. you have to look past the wall of worry and have a little bit further conviction on a long-term views. and if we look at earnings projections that have continued to be positive going forward we have to lean in right now because, you know, i guess when you think about it, there are still the upside probability our base case. you kind of have to add on when things are oversold at these levels. >> base case is soft landing over recession? >> yes. >> interesting. shan, this idea of what a.j. said earlier, 60/40 portfolio never looked more attractive. never looked this attractive. you know what the narrative's been, as we suggest a moment ago over the last couple of years. to some the 60/40 portfolio never looked worse t

havens this week. the war in the middle east is raging. it is tricky. is there a technical point of view to buy this?s of the bond market, do you buy the dip or can you do that before 8:30 wednesday? >> i do not think you can. if there is a dip after 8:30, that could be an interesting time because wednesday afternoon you will probably get jay powell a little bit less hawkish than he has been over the last couple quarters, so we have this weird dynamic where it is not necessarily a terrible time to buy but you will probably see better levels and entry points to get in as we get this supply information this afternoon and wednesday morning. guy: is this market about supply or demand? and that demand at what price? we got the news already that we could see changes out of the boj. there will be a debate on yield curve control. we will hear from the fed. i am wondering what the message will be in terms of managing the qt story. which side of the fence do i need to look at? is it the supply side or the demand story? ira: primarily demand. i'm writing a note now which will be out tomorrow where we will look

the treasury market as a haven, do you think that starts to complicate this idea yields could go higher? brian: i think so. obviously the situation in israel in the middle east is tenuous. let me say our deepest him for these are with the people of israel of course after this terrorist attack and millions of lives are disrupted with the war but there is a significant risk of disruption in oil supplies that could meaningfully impact the trajectory of the economy and monetary policy. sonali: jim beyonca a beyonca research online pointing out this idea that those sharp moves in the 30 year only happen when something is up. what is up? do think these moves will continue to be exacerbated either because of macro reasons or because of treasury market liquidity concerns? barry: it is the supply demand imbalance. i don't really recall, and i have been at this 39 years, two serious events where excess supply really caused a backup in long-term rates to absorb that supply. the first began january 4 22 anyone when the republicans lost the senate. we went from expecting no new stimulus to an additional .9 chilean dollars. if you take the 30 year real rate or tip sealed,

east main news in on colorado. the 2 men have met many times of the years, and the israel has accused tuffy of providing a safe haven to members of the group. during his move in 2 decades impala ad, one has always been a sub and support health, the palestinian cause, and it resonates well with many here in turkey to this day, he refuses to classify him, us as a terrorist organization. unlike most of his west and allies, along with the wrong and culture of turkey, a is a central actor that enables from us as activities on an international scale, you know, add on, move systematically to essentially ensure that how mosque bound office space, diplomatic recognition, and hovering or from us leaders and operators inside of turkey, the following. how mazda is that falsities in israel and looked over 7th ad one has been trying to use his times with the militant group to play a mediating role. turkish officials say they all negotiating the release of hostages health by him. us in the goal is a strip. but how much influence does ad one's government have that remains to be seen. my, my own view on this we've been suggested, to

east. we've seen the move and safe havens in swiss francs. we have to look closely at the japanese yen.re not moving as quickly, the japanese yen stands out as one where if you are looking for a safe haven and one that has followed the masses, you have to look there. lisa: you say you won't talk about this but then you talk about this. there was some interesting stuff over the week. let's be honest. xi jinping made an unprecedented visit -- and on president visit to the people's bank of china saying he cares more about the economies were raises the question about stimulus. do you buy into that or say i'm not going to go there and it's not investable for me but maybe for other people. if you want your analysis go elsewhere? >> i will defend this. zero is not the right exposure to have to china. you have the flexibility in your mandate to go to chinese equities and credit and chinese high-yield credit. probably not me. for the reality, it's probably not zero but it remains to be seen what it should be. it seems like a trade on a rebound of chinese growth. it seems directional and somethin

east main. hon. yes. in on correct. the 2 men have met many times of the years, and the israel has accused toughie of providing a safe haven to members of the group. during has more than 2 decades impala ad one has always been a sub and support health, the palestinian cause. and it resonates well with many here in turkey to this day, he refuses to classify him, us as a terrorist organization. unlike most of his west and allies. and along with the wrong and culture of turkey, a is a central actor that enables from us is activities on an international scale. you know, ireland move systematically to essentially ensure that how mosque bound office space, diplomatic recognition, and hovering, or from us leaders and operators inside of turkey. the following her muscles as falsities in israel and october 7th. edwin has been trying to use his times with the militant group to play a mediating role. turkish officials say they all negotiating the release of hostages, helped by him. us in the goal is to strip. but how much influence does ad one's government have? that remains to be seen my my own view on this would be to suggest that

haven. or at least get us out of gaza. >> the u.s. is issuing security advisories throughout the middle east as protests continue to spread.crowds gathered wednesday in cities across jordan, morocco, lebanon and in the west bank. cnn's sam kiley has more on the fallout from the hospital blast, this report contains some disturbing images. >> a blast immediate strategic impact. jordan canceled a summit with the u.s. egypt and the palestinian authority as news of mass casualties in gaza emerged. >> now with the hamas controlled gaza health ministry saying the death toll is over 470 from an explosion in the courtyard of this church run hospital. >> there are protests around the world. >> [crowd chanting] >> and in this war the truth is unlikely to emerge quickly. the u.s. based on its own analysis of the evidence, including secret intelligence, has supported israel's version of events. >> based on information we have seen today it appears the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in gaza. >> israel blames hamas in these land jihad, arrival is the militant group. islamic jihad hamas and other palestinian groups

heard this from semma shah, amid risk aversion during the conflict in the middle east, you can see treasures are not havenhave seen at the low end of the curve in some places -- i talked about the gilt market and the u.k. -- we are talking about losses of 50% to 60% depending on which security you look at. have we fully realize the pain associated with those losses in this bond market? tom: this is something for me, i was in 3rd avenue having fine dining and a guy came up and said, thank you for mentioning what people really feel. there is a separateness right now of institution of bond dynamics from the real world of the pension people i mentioned and others of -10, -12, -18%. lisa: one of our guests that if she could find a 30-year treasury selling 40cents on the dollar, she would buy it but you cannot because they are not for sale. they are not being realized. the for sales are going to be the question, when you see big flows out of treasuries in a way that forces the hand of investors? tom: but i would say as you can think as hard as you can about this but you can never see it coming. i cannot tell yo

haven? are they worried about inflation? are they buying that because there watching what is happening in the middle east with concern?ferred hedge and what we have been recommending is looking at oil prices going higher, a director's mission mechanism, and we also like energy equities which we think are attractively priced. we are seeing clients turn into gold -- turning to gold. go to see some support here because of the geopolitical risk. this is not something you can just trade in and out of based on tragic attacks. there's a lot of transaction costs. alix: but sitting and holding and having in your portfolio is a different kind of story which begs the question how much more upside on that. how much upside do you think there is the goat? -- gold? mark: i did not think it is one of our preferred assets. i think for a variety of reasons a better transmission mechanism and more attractive prices can be found if you're looking to hedge things through oil. for more immediate concerns and people trying to run for a safe haven and think the swiss franc is very attractive they are and as much lower transaction costs. guy:

haven, but he quickly deleted the post. later on, he disavowed it, published another statement denying that he had issued the 1st statement. now let's cross live to a middle east experts, the only been men knocked him in jerusalem, jani is good to have. you had joined me right now that the british prime minister arrived in use will adjust the day after us presidential biden was there. why do you, why do the east west and lead us feel such a need to express personnel? so the diary to with israel ibis time eh, i think that the, they also remember the cost and the atrocities the domestic. is that the nazis a being to the jewish people then they want to express those? so the dorothy and the also they are on the same a can or the same hicks, this is united state these and the quote fully quite to the quad. and they did leave the president buying right now. but the us has vetoed multiple initial initiatives in the, on the, in the u. n. the would have facilitated a cease fire and a community or an a to policy. and then everyone involved, why didn't hear it saying this was vetoed because the suction atrocity that it's such a horrible domestic more than the mexico for

we see eac as such a safe haven where food security issues are resolved, energy security, our countries are jointly developing. both in the east direction. valdai remains a leading discussion platform; this year, despite the difficult situation, the composition of participants is no less representative than in previous years. 140 experts from 42 countries in europe, asia, africa, north and south america. anastasia kobazeva, ivan pokhomov, zulfiya khakimova, channel one. european union. the meeting on karabakh in the form in which it has been advertised in recent days will not take place tomorrow. refused to go to spanish granada president of azerbaijan ilham aliyev is coming. as announced, baku does not see the need to discuss the problems of the region with countries located far from it, and any format with the participation of france announcing plans to supply weapons to armenia is generally unacceptable. prime minister nikol pashinyan said that he would still go to spain. in response to demands for his resignation that were heard in yerevan in mid -september, he replied that he was ready to... he would not leave, because wi

havens in focus with the u.s. heading off a widening of the middle east conflict as an israeli ground invention of gaza looms. supporting china's economy, the biggest term liquidity injection since 2020. also ahead the biden administration set to restrict china's access to semi conductors and chipmaking. plus an exclusive with the ceo of the vietnamese electric vehicle maker on expansion plans in china and india. rishaad: we had a positive site here for the hong kong market but not really coming through with the hang seng now down and we saw the whole region on the downside. let's take a look at futures in the overall benchmark. msci down three quarters of 1% and other future suggesting positivity. things can markedly change. yvonne: so much on tap. not just news flow but also u.s. earnings, earnings for the region. massive data dumps in china so certainly a lot at risk. taking a look at oil markets, commodity prices, a flight to safety. you're seeing that on friday. not so much today. look at the yield curve, treasuries are higher. recovering from the drop of 10 basis points. rishaad: the yield can just move

situation of the conflict in the middle east as well as china reopening after a weeklong old and a holiday as well. there are a lot of factors. we are seeing a move to havens. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy.

east. commercial off by a quarter of a percent despite the inflation gauge. bitcoin has been on a tear. up some 14%. is it a desire for haven? probably not. it is more a focus, hope, prayer, reality that an etf and spot bitcoin is coming soon? ed: it is a broad risk on sentiment. it was about tech being on top and earnings is the driver. intel gave a sales forecast for the current period. at the top of the range was way above expectations. the story they are trying to tell is the pc market has bottomed out. pc chips are their biggest volume sales. that has been important. we will speak to pat gelsinger later in the show. in the session, one of the biggest jump since january of 2021. also the third straight quarter where investors have looked at into and said "we like it, we believe the turnaround is happening." the other big name is amazon. with amazon, we have paired session gains. we were up a little more than that. still up significantly. the story was beat across the board, apart from aws, relative to expectations. you look at the bottom line, the cloud unit brought in almost $1.5 billion of operating. more than the str

east cost of living issues. u.s. futures are coming online. and .10 -- .2 of 1%. ahead of tech earnings. and traders continue to and ahead of tech earnings season and watching treasury. traders continue to seek haven. 10-year yields slumping after topping that 5% level the first time it touched that level in 2001 and tense volatility. we continue to see downsize for the dollar falling the most in a month and reverse of lowering u.s. yields and oil gaining .8 of 1% and fallen the most in more than two weeks as we continue to see more signs from israel that they would hold off on a broader ground incursion of gaza. hamas militants have freed two more hostages. let's get more from our political news director. with the release of the hostages, does it signal that more could be released soon and seeing progress on this front? >> well, that is the hope of families of those held hostage and who were taken by hamas on october 7, but unclear. we have seen now four hostages released, two, a mother and daughter late last week and two today, two older women who had been on a kibbutz near gaza and were released today but no indication there may be more or a lot more. unclear at this point, the u.s. and other w

a member of parliament for kilbride parliament for east kilbride strath and les mcgough strath havenhave leaves, which i should have practised obviously, before coming on air. lisa cameron has quit the scottish national party and to the and defected to the conservatives . she that conservatives. so she said that she quit because the toxic she quit because of the toxic culture the party in culture in the party in westminster and said that she had received support from mr sunak after mental sunak after her mental well—being deteriorated in recent weeks, but had no contact from the snp leadership . the from the snp leadership. the prime minister welcomed her to the a brave the party, calling her a brave and constituent mp. and committed constituent mp. with is catherine with us now is catherine forster, our political correspondent at what's happened i >> -- >> it's quite astonishing , isn't >> it's quite astonishing, isn't it, patrick? yesterday lisa cameron was the scottish national party mp for east kilbride and today she's still the mp for east kilbride . but the mp for east kilbride

in the red and they were safe haven asset flights golden the dollar surge, but the wall street fears that hamas the terror attack on israel, good snowball until middle easte price of the futures group, the is the oil prone author of the energy report, what you thank you so going to happen fill. >> will i think of the story, this could be the most significant threats, the global oil supplies in a generation and in fact, this terrible attack from hamas and israel could create a real possibility of global oil shortages. phil: and you know right now believe it or not, iran, if they are involved with this, they could get him from the biden administration with sanctions on his face it, the biden administration has been coming around to keep the globe supply and recently the hit a fire for your high their exports all right a five-year high and fully you will you use the oil there's nowhere else to go so that could leave a global oil shortage in the biden administration is already looking to try to make up for the difference is that here in the united states and the other key think of the traders are very worried about is if issue directly attacks, iran, and if

turkish authorities haven mars tightened up security, limiting traffic in front of american diplomatic facilitieorities d as tensions appear to rise across the middle eastion. >> jesse? thanks, mike. you be.t. amas >> now, it's been 11 days since hamas launchedheir their terrore attack and slaughtered nearly 1500 innocent livelys in. >> israel in addition to those killed by hamas, the terror grou p has also taken nearly 200 hostages in the gaza. l heartbroken families are left in limbo, not knowing how theinr children, parents, grandparents, husbands, wives and grandchildrewives n faring.o >> hamas released the firstne video of one of the hostages, mia shem, a 20 one-year-old french and israeli citizen who was shot in the ara shemm and taken by the terror group at the rave last saturday. >> w e going to show you thatespect video out of respect for her family. mike tobin f sat down with me, a mother, to hear her reaction. >> watch t. >> did you know she was alive after the attack? noe , i didn't know if she was dead or alive. i knew nothing until yesterday i that i saw this video. fid the first reaction was screaming and, then shouting.ho the other react

east is adding to challenges to ties between the world's biggest economies. that air was later on "daybreak: asia. -- that air was 0 -- airs later on "daybreak: asia." annabelle: there is still haven demand we are continuing to assess in the light of the hamas war. of course, it was jay powell's address and when he said in that speech, taking the idea of a rate hike off the table and off the back of that we have seen money markets starting to price the chance that we will see rate cuts around the midpoint of next year. it previously had been around the third quarter. we have seen market moves in treasuries off that, yields moving lower at the front end, higher at the longer end. it is still pretty subdued as we get early trading underway. let's change on, because the other thing to note is that the wall street session has had dollars office start to come back in. japanese yen was still very close to the 150 mark, but was even closer, around 149.96, close to the level we monitor for intervention. offshore yuan very close as well to the 7.35 mark. that is down to the eco-issues within china because property weakness is still a story there that is putting pressure on the aussie dolla

east. add to that the fact that they are targeted. you know, when i first started doing this some 25 years ago now, you had a red cross on your truck, that was safe haven. there were international humanitarian sorts of codes of ethics. in 2006 i was covering the lebanese israeli war and someone took a shot at the truck we were in which had a red cross on it. i realized there are no rules in situations like this and hospitals that are in the war zone become targets. in fact, sara sidner did a great report about hospitals under ground in thief. that started happening in lebanon about 25 years ago. hospitals have to go underground to try to preserve the resources. something else, you know, i covered natural disasters, conflicts. they are both terrible. the thing about conflicts is that the targeting of that, that really messes with the mental health of the clinicians and people trying to do this work, so they are going to save lives, oftentimes strangers' lives and saying to their spouses when they leave, today i may die in order to save the life of someone i don't know. it's really from a burnout standpoint and sort of mental health standpoint, really si

east, they don't think it will expand beyond the players. they could be wrong. >> they, the countries concerned that it will get bigger. and what i fear, which we don't want to. neil: we've been a haven for that money. i we just sort of the most reliable dwarf in the room? kenny:over the long-term we will remain a haven. i hope they can control this, there's a solution to it, nobody wants to see it. neil: we haven't seen the rush, that yields would tumble, what do you make of that? kenny:we saw the russian oil very briefly. we started to see that back off because overnight last night we haven't seen it explode any further. the market is trying to digest it and we can control it. we could see that flip. one thing goes wrong and oil pushes higher once again and the market will selloff, that's at the level but geopolitical issues don't typically price stock in the long-term and structure chaos and become the opportunity, good names that selloff, for no other reason than that. once it settles down stocks go back to the fundamentals and that's where the opportunity is. neil: you are a genius with this stuff. we always like to put this in context. sometimes you tell by following folks with

haven man play out across the markets. the fighting is threatening to inflame tensions across the middle east which is home to almost a thirdnue to watch with more than 700 israelis, mostly civilians killed. which erupted outside the gaza strip, 400 palestinians have died as well in retaliatory attacks. the israeli military gaining -- regaining control over most of those areas reached by militants. the operation by hamas which also included taking scores of israeli hostages was an unprecedented incursion that shaken stability and markets with israel's official declaration of war. let's get more analysis, david miller is a senior fellow for international peace. we spoke to him earlier and he told us the conflict reflects both intelligence and operational failure for israel. >> we won't know the full story on the intel here for months. if that. but it is quite clear that the israelis underestimated their adversary. simply could not comprehend, even though the idea of hamas operatives tunneling -- hezbollah operatives tunneling in the north has been a major concern of israel before. they simply could not imagine that hamas cou

east, and a potential ground incursion in gaza. we had the big-tech selloff as well. we also had treasuries rising across the curve, havenemand being seen in the 10-year yield which fell to the 4.6% level. we are also watching oil continue to rally. the largest weekly gain in a month. but you can see in the agent session, a bit of downside, 0.2%. perhaps one positive for the broader market was the earnings season being kicked off by big wall street banks. jp morgan, citi, wells fargo. we had a couple of them really gaining ground on the friday session on solid earnings. we have goldman sachs, morgan stanley and bank of america this week. it was already a big week for politics where it came to us truly and new zealand. australia seeing a comprehensive defeat of the voice referendum, and questions about what that means for prime minister albanese who made it a key campaign pledge. we know that he really announced this referendum at the height of his popularity. and then we saw at the end of the campaign how he had taken a hit on his support levels across the country. we will see what his government does in order to refocus

haven in the wake of what happened in israel, really wasn't there. there's a little niche in this that we vice presi-- haven't sp, last time things flared up in the middle east and one root where this would affect everybody the oil route, america was not the preeminent producer in the world. the amount of oil we get that comes from this country imported from not opec countries but canada, has really changed, i think, the need for a safe haven play. i'm pushing back a little bit on the and you lying reason for your question. >> it's a thoughtful response. >> i hate to interrupt. quickly right now, jay powell just wrapped up his remarks at the new york economic club and seeing the markets at their session highs and over to the q&a live right now at the new york economic club. >> given everything that's going on in the world and in the economy, there's a lot to talk about, lot to discuss. let me start with something you referred to which is the surprise to the upside in the economic data, termed it historically fast pace of growth. are you surprised how resilient the united states economy is. we got jobless claims numbers, surprise they were low, retail sales n

east, people take a different view, given that other big countries don't get directly involved. i don't see too much change from that. vonnie: where should investors position themselves if they are looking for a safe haventhe lowest hanging fruit is high quality bonds. that can go from government bonds, safer investment rate bonds. we have seen yields which we have not seen probably in the last 15 years. global economies, the u.s., really does move slower, and inflation with it. beyond the carry, you get potential -- that's probably the first place where i would look. vonnie: i have to ask about the boj meeting. it is the one central bank where you might get movement this week your it are you anticipating anything to do with the tweaking of policies? >> whether they actually take action i think is a question mark, but i believe they might go further in that direction and take more steps last year -- next year possibly. even though when we come to the yen, the big investment implication, probably the boj is not really the moving element of the two sides. it is still probably the dollar, therefore what happens in the u.s., we get payroll on friday, so we will see if we get a lead from that. other than tha

haven u.s. treasury is still going to be that, correct >> it should be that, but let me give you some numbers. before the conflict started in the middle easttreasury was at 4.80 today at 4.97. we still face the risk of escalation of that crisis. there has been two big puzzles and they speak to how unsettling the volatility and the u.s. treasury has been. one is you haven't had it been the safe haven we haven't seen the flight to quality and the flight to safety that you would expect, given what is happening in the world the second thing that is equally counterintuitive, you have people talking about bitcoins, about equity being the safe asset because that last confidence in government bonds being the safe assets, because of the nature of this interest rate risk. so, yes, it should be the safe haven, it should have already benefited, but the reality is that the ten-year yield today is a good 17 basis points higher than it was before this latest conflict erupted >> mohamed, the fed says it is going to keep rates higher for longer i believe them if they think inflation is still a problem they will not lower rates, but if push comes to shove a