let's talk about the ecb.t seems to be there is an expectation that the market might cut back on the inflation forecast because of the assumption they have in making around oil prices when we last heard from them. super eyes today on mario. i don't think he is super today. recent events have probably pushed back inflation, given that the euro is about three and a half percent stronger. and oil is down about $15. on the other hand, the growth numbers have been moving quite nicely. i think he will need convincing that china as yet has had impact. i'm expecting the language to be fairly open, he will pick up the baton after the summer. any policy change would be a surprise. anna: i have a chart here of what the euro has done. what it has done against the dollar. has this been not much of a headache for mario draghi? some people were talking about whether we would get the euro-dollar, now we are up around 1.12. it seems like it was the beneficiary of recent markets, will we get ahead of the trend questio. >> he wi

the ecb can respond.hing with a punch bowl filled to the brim and you are seeing that in market volatility. right now, a busy morning. let's get to top headlines. here is funny.

i think we ought to begin with the ecb. i mentioned the ecb held steady as expected. draghi has the opportunity to make news this morning. he will be asked about quantitative easing. asked about the inflation outlook, about china and global markets. let's find out from on's nichols what the world expects. hans: i was in frank for yesterday at a big banking conference. everyone is wondering what is going to happen in terms of quantitative easing. is mario draghi going to hint it could be longer? september 2016, that is when it is expected to end. when we get these predictions for the global outlook for the economy for 2015 and going forward, if we get those in about 30 minutes time and they show that inflation has been disappointing to the downside, that it is not at that .03% they aghi will be asked about the effectiveness of quantitative easing. i think i am most interested in what he has to say about quantitative easing. he is not going to way too much into china. he is not going to be a market commentator that he could indicate whether or not he thinks they need to

our eyes over the ecb. bring you live coverage from 12:45 today. 55 minutes into the session. equity markets at session highs. 54.9, the final reading for services pmi. france, a disappointment. that -- the diversions -- manus cranny up next. germany ok.ata, for for everyone else, not so good. more qe eventually. manco amazing how we have -- manus: amazing how we have gone from no qe and now they're calling for more qe here it -- more qe. bena, perhaps we should asking for reprieve and european equity markets. volatility tiger is closed for a couple of days. the ecb is front and center. goldman sachs says we are going to be back in parity by 2016. parity is back on the writing agenda. you want all heck of a lot of qe to get yourself back there. au want the fed to go on hiking rampage. we're going to look at political issues in china. jonathan: looking for to that. manus cranny and francine lacqua coming up on the pulse after this break. follow me on twitter. the dax, a session high. 56 minutes into the sess

um, we are just here yesterday from the current ecb minister, head of the ecb., ready to act. mario draghi is ready to go again. now, is this the ecb being progressive or should be -- we be worried that six months into q.e., they are getting ready to do more? what i understand is that to the extent there has been a viewing down, both inflation and growth in the years to come, the idea that it is very, very important to continue to counter the risk of materialization of deflation is still there. and what i understand from the position of the governing council, expressed by mario, is clearly that they could, if needed, go over and above the threshold of september next year, which has been the date mentioned when they decided on q.e. so, this is something which was implicit until now. is now exquisite. -- explicit. and is coping with the new situation where the central bank of europe has to pace itself. explicit definition of being prepared to go beyond if necessary is the exact phrase he used, it comes back to china and the threat to global growth. how concerned a

we have the ecb meeting coming up. what is mario draghi going to say about this data. >> and whether we're data dependent on this side. there's a lot of analysts calling for some indication about whether or not we should be considering on with quantitative easing longer. >> exactly. >> the u. s. markets yesterday. the volatility is just continuing. >> absolutely. volatility can work in favor of the bulls and the bears and that's what we saw in yesterday's trade. the dow has seen ten triple digit sessions in the past 11 but pimco was telling us on cnbc that this volatility in the markets should not worry us. this is normal in a rising rate environment which we're technically in given that the fed is expected to raise rates this year. yes. nasdaq, it feels like just from the people that come through our doors, it feels like there's not a sense of panic. we were talk about how the vicks jumped the other day and we were seeing these moves on a at aly basis here and there and even though it's called a fear indicator i'm won

but the ecb is doing more than people thought. the ecb is doing more work and everyone is a -- responding to inflation. that ecb inflation target 2% just like the federal reserve. is there a wrench in this gecko code falling oil prices drop the number to go to the negative? >> absolutely, and i think he gave us the indication that is a possibility. they are more worried about a move low work rather than one-off oil shock. theove lower rather than one off oil shock. even if it is oil doing a lot of the work, it moves the ecb closer to doing more easing. been: we know china has off, and they are off because of the military parade, but how does this then put into the context of china and devaluing the currency? where do they stand on the track of more moves , given what we are seeing in europe? it clear, ifmade the dollar a higher, dollar-china will be part of that story. dollar has been sideways lately, but with this move, i think what the market comes back monday, they may be looking for the chinese currency to weaken a bit more ag

the ecb so far is sticking to it.eporter: it was not exactly a surprise, the ecb decided not to change its interest rate was widely expected. >> based on our regulatory and monetary analysis and then lied with -- in line with guidance, the council decided to keep key interest rates unchanged. our asset purchase problem continues to proceed. reporter: the ecb will effectively have to print more money if it wants to boost europe's economy. since march, it has been doing that by buying bonds. the goal, to provide businesses and consumers with money and thereby reach a steady rate of inflation. the last time consumer prices rose by an appropriate amount was january 2013. what followed was a steady decline that turned to deflation at the end of the year, which caused consumer prices to fall. now the inflation rate is back at 2%. gasoline is one of the factors influencing consumer prices. it is currently relatively cheap, a result of the very low price for crude oil at the moment. that is weighing down on the consumer price

we will have live coverage of that ecb meeting. in the meantime we're in rally mode up 1.8% for the xetra dax. ftse 100 up 109 points in today's trade. commodities a big part of the story. >> i'm getting ready for the ecb special which i know you'll be watchi watching. commodities not to ignore. silver higher and gold lower and then you have brent over here. a tad higher. big swings over the last couple of sessions and it seems now people are focused on the non-farm payroll data that is due out tomorrow so that should be a big one because of course we're hearing that the fed is also looking at the data, right? so this week's nonfarm payroll data. you have the pound against the dollar weaker and the saucy dollar down by .3% against the green back. stabilizing following the weaker chinese data which is closely linked to the aussie dollar performance. the issue is whether or not we'll see enough of an unwinding for there to be this move to buy into the euro or the yen or whether it's a temporary unwinding. the euro dollar flat to high

our top story this morning, the ecb.ix months into its extraordinary economic stimulus program, and the central bank has revamped its policy, david is here. what does this mean? avid: what has caught everyone by surprise at what -- was revamping the kiwi. ist means what it signals that since that press conference, they are ready to do more. it is a distinct possibility that this time next year, we might actually still -- or the ecb might still be in this extraordinary stimulus program they are in. the surprise was that they did decide to increase the share limit to 33% from 25%. in other words, it addresses the earlier problem that there was not enough funds for them to buy up and there were problems of liquidity. it is a half step. it is not the expansion of the qe program. it is a recalibration. more importantly, it also signals the underlying fundamentals have deteriorated. they have cut growth forecast. there will be no inflation he said over the next few months. listen to how he phrased this. we may see negative num

let -- fresh inflation with the ecb.ut of the three options, an andease in the qe program, then just extending it, are they going to choose option three? leave this up in them -- with this open-ended? will extend the timeframe in which they are doing the asset presages. -- asset purchases. they could increase the pool slightly. but in terms of making big, bold changes. they cannot weaken the currency through the qe. that is unlikely. the political challenges will remain in place. most likely option is an extension of the duration of past 2016. that will not be a major surprise to the market. we are already discussing it now, 2-3 months o ahead of when it will happen. jonathan: there is a much bigger story in play here. looking beyond to 2016 and 2017, this idea of divergent monetary policies. will develop and a potent way? what are the implications of that? the wider implications for the fx market? policy: the monetary divergent market has played out in our view. 1.40.ro is at they said we would take the raw qe back in 2

jonathan: do we overstep the sensitivity of the ecb? is the fx that much important than the bond market in credit? vasileios gkionakis: these are basically 2 questions. how does the ecb perceive what is going on into the fx market? him. glick, the importance of the fx channel -- him. ically, the importance of the fx channel. it is lower now. not only capture the expert side. i do not the ecb, think it has a particular level in mind. what a maybe worrying them is it the depreciation. whenever you see a sharp higher in the euro, these guys step in and make noise. jonathan: i have to ask you about degrees. i was asking a -- ask you about degrees. -- ask you about greece. austerity in greece or something more political? vasileios gkionakis: it will always be about austerity. people do not lie fiscal tightening. think theretime, i was definitely an element of -- people showing their opposition to the previous .olitical party in greece having said all of that, obviously the outcome showed at the polls were a disaster. and i do not think it's

and the euphoria from the ecb fading in the u.s. as attention turns to the all-important nonfarm payrolls. jobs data -- how much should we care? is it aeration a matter what? 217,000?pass -- is it a bearish market my matter what? as global market falling off a cliff? in damnedesty do they don't. the euro staying pretty flat. damned if they do, damned if they don't. we would get an update for you. it was up by almost a percentage point and today we are r emaining at the lower level. a look ato having whether dollar is trading ahead of nonfarm payroll. on a two-day basis we were up yesterday and just correcting ever so slightly. let's have a look back at the one day chart. the euphoria is seeping out of the commodities market but yesterday we saw them all moving higher in today all off by more than 0.15. islly the risk aversion spilling into the commodities market as we get concerns about growth globally and, indeed, whether the u.s. could really raise rates. we're seeing money going into u.s. debt, german debt, risk bondion good for

francine: inflation in focus as the ecb meets in frankfurt. mario draghi will address market volatility. manus: chinese markets on holiday. stocks get a breather as the country commemorates the end of world war ii with a massive military parade. francine: the latest report says risk to global growth have fed should the remain data dependent when it comes to raising rates. welcome to "the pulse" live in london. onus: let's check in breaking news. composite. eurozone pmi comes in 51.3. mark: the compass i -- compass it is the manufacturing report. the services has just crossed. this is the final rating for the month of august. 54.4. the survey estimate was 54.3. the prior reading was 54.3. services has come above the previous estimate. as a result, the composite has come in ahead of estimates as well as 54.3. so, it is a good piece of data for mario draghi to get his head round as the ecb meets today to discuss policy. later, to discuss his plans for q.e. investors will want reasserts -- reassurance the ecb is willing to expand the q.e. program,

stock index futures rating and ecb policy meeting findings. the s&p up 10.u are watching "fbn:am," your first look at morning markets and breaking news. ♪ lauren: breaking news this morning. helical antenna has taken a capitol hill to answer questions about the attack on the u.s. embassy in benghazi libya. im lauren simonetti. nicole: we are almost there. i am nicole petallides. we are checking out the stock markets closed because of a parade going on. calm returns to global trading for the moment and the global markets right now and rally mode. after the dow surged 300 points yesterday commit dow futures this morning been higher. up about half of 1%. s&p up 10 handles as debate on the ecb. lauren: asia not looking too shabby either. the shanghai and hong kong looking better today. japan's nikkei up half of 1% prefer 1%. first tries in four days. nicole: stocks open higher with further easing in what everybody's looking for. the ftse, cac and dax all looking up. lauren: absolutely. some weakness however. crude just turned slightly to the downside to $46.17 a

meanwhile, the ecb announcing a revamped qe. draghi saying the bank will increase it to bond buying program. he added that risks to both remain -- china, refugees, and emerging markets will dominate turkey. talks in in a statement, the group's monetary policy is tightening. let's have more on a crucial jobs report out there today. the last main data points before we see the policy meeting later this month. > ebola ron washington will be shutting down for the holiday weekend, but at least one piece of news will grab everyone's attention -- the august payrolls report. it will mark the last piece of economic news before the september economic policy meeting. it is considered pivotal as the fed weighs whether or not to raise interest rates. above 211s that the thousand jobs gained each month this year. the number is considered increasingly important. in the u.s. that have been a series of positive economic reports in recent weeks. been, global markets have roiled in uncertainty over china's economy. the payroll survey cover the week

if we see a negative print for the euro area will the ecb worry or not?don't think they'll worry just from one inflation number. i think markets might become concerned but that in itself could have knock on effects to the european central bank if you look at market based measures of inflation expectations. you're looking at something like the five year five year measure that's already heading down toward 1.5%. it's a 7 month low and that's what the ecb gets concerned about from the points of view of ingrained expectations of low inflation. >> we'll have to leave it here. thank you for your time. chief economists at investec. >> the u.s. senate will vote 10:00 a.m. eastern time on the bill to fund the federal government through to december 11th. this is a stop gap measure which does not go after planned pas parenthood and should pass with a simple majority. the house should pass it by the end of this day and that avoids a government shutdown at midnight. the house is also scheduled to vote an an amendment to defund planned parenthood but that's not expecte

so the ecb and the u.s. jobs data will be the two key words for the trading for the rest of the week. but for now, that's it from me. back to you, ramin. >> the ecb sand the jobs data, mayu, thank you very much. >>> now, more than 20 million cats and dogs in japan are kept as pets. and they're taking on the same importance as children in the lives of many of the owners. in the first installment of our two-part series in trends in japanese pet care, we'll look at some of the steps that companies are taking to help people keep their cherished companions in top form. >> reporter: at this gym, some of the customers look a bit unusual. it's a dog on a balance ball. a dog swimming. and another, learning to jump over a hurdle. this fitness center for dogs opened last month. this lady comes here once a week. her dog lives indoors. she wants to make sure he's getting enough exercise. an expert in animal fitness consults with the owner and draws up the customer's program for each dog. she wanted him to get used to wat

everyone will be looking at those numbers. >> let's go back to the ecb now.fter the ecb paved the way for additional stimulus measures, how did that affect the euro? >> the euro sank after the draghi's dovish comments. it hit a two-week low against the dollar. it is still around that level or around 1.25. and that led to some of the yen buying. but we expect to see a rally. dollar/yen is 119.94. before we wrap up, hong kong won't reopen today. that's it for me. back to you. >> great stuff, thank you very much, mayu yoshida reporting for us live from the tokyo stock exchange. >>> now, we've been looking at trends in japan. the pet industry. yesterday we reported on fitness trainers that helped cats and dogs stay in shape. today we look at another emerging business. this one targets elderly bet owners and the service is peace of mind. >> reporter: kyoko shibata is 83 years old. she has no children. she lives alone in tokyo with her dog emily. emily is her partner on walks and in conversation. the dog helps keep her going. shibata takes emily to the vet every mo

john, what are the policy options available to the ecb?n: you can increase the size of the program, and become an asset program and you buy more sovereign debt. can extend the program that is supposed to end in september 2016. the problem with increasing expanding the program is that it is being priced into the market. will they have any kind of decent effect if you want to increase the size of the program, then the question arises once again do you have the will of assets available to availablel of assets to do that? rates, hasgative monetary policy been exhausted? the bottom line, i hope to come out the other side with a little bit of currency. mark: we look forward to hearing about that, see you later. commodities rout, seeing a sell off slumping, chinese pmi hitting a low, glencore shares hitting a low, but they are slightly up in this session. caroline: asia is where the rout is still continuing. asic -- theheb basic resource area hit worse than expected. no manufacturing improvement in six months. a downward they in asia, and europe

the ecb is no longer including loans backed by volkswagen financial assets.uick look at shares in vw and they're down once again after recovering a little bit of ground at the back of last week. volkswagen shares off by 5.63%. in the last hour volkswagen has suspended the research and development heads of vw passenger cars, audi and porsche. >>> moving on, the u.k.'s labour's party. controversial chancellor is taking center stage when he will deliver a, quote, new economics. let's get back tout wolf who is in brighton. wolf? >> reporter: carolin, thank you very much. yes, indeed. we're getting closer to the keynote address from john mcdonnell at lunchtime today. there are more questions than answers. people will be looking to get clarity from him. the rail ways are going to be the first sectors to be nationalized. what sectors would come next? we've heard of plans to increase corporate tax yesterday on the marsh show, he said one company boots needed to face up to the full tax -- the amount of tax they were paying. we'll be looking for other names of other co

the ecb cut its forecast for growth and inflation for the next two ears. conference, mario draghi said the euro zone economy will grow just 1.4% this year. he also revamped quantitative easing measures, which he says have kept the economy growing. draghi: overall, the measures we have put in place since june of 2014 provide clear support for improvements both in borrowing conditions for firms and households and in credit flows across the euro area. olivia: there has been more speculation -- the biggestcing military cuts in almost two decades. the world got a look at china passes military might during the parade today. said he cut 300,000 soldiers from the 2.3 million strong army. stephen engle file this report. >> i'm reporting outside in the heart of beijing where the parade is literally rolling by here. have the artillery of the people's liberation army as they celebrate the 70th anniversary of the ending of world war ii. to showhis opportunity his grip on the military but also to show unity to the chinese people. this --ion to beijing, he is also sendin

investors want some reinsurance from ecb president mario draghi he is willing to expand the ecb's bondry to fight deflation. look at the german bund. little changed. up 2.8%. 8%.up to . the five-year forward inflation operate has actually fallen to 1.67%. you know more than i know because he used to live here at the ecb target for inflation is just below 2%. i, orto you mr. drag should i say mr. miller. matt: if only i were in mario's position i think i can do a lot. we had gains after europe gains. we are coming off session highs. we are up 113. the s&p at half of 1%. seenf the changes we have in one of the reasons we are seeing the u.s. indexes come off this session high is because oil has now turned around after we got some higher crude supply numbers and we expected. take a look at crude. this is the intraday, down 2.2%. yesterday we were down 8%. we have a double date of back-to-back loss of 10% in crude. back down to $42.42 per barrel. he see a lot of oil stocks moving down as well. they are the biggest losers on the s&p. we are looking at noble, diamond offshore fars percentage

the ecb comments are very important and substantial because we have a bank review by the ecb.ish at the end of the year. we have a recapitalization of the bank that needs to happen. qe good flow, the only if the reforms are implemented. it is expected to contract by the end of the year, employment is around 25%. there are reforms, but any coalition will be very painful for the greek people. brendan: the other political story of the day, and the political story of the year, is the refugee crisis in europe. we will bring in hans nichols in berlin who has been following this. a new route opened in croatia they are already feeling overwhelmed and shutting down their borders. does the european union's leadership have a handle on this at all? hans: they knew not -- they do not have a handle on the numbers. the numbers are out of date. they do not know how many will be arriving, and how to emigrate them in -- integrate them into society. the private bank in germany is 5.5 billion euros this year will be spent on housing alone, only on the german side of the equation. brendan: where i

at the ecb.y had sliding commodity prices, rather than confidently addicting a gradual rise in --wth and inflation the ecb that was the plan. acknowledged the outlook has deteriorated. >> based on our economic analysis some of governing council decided to keep the key ecb interest rates unchanged. 2015, theith june projections, the outlook for real gdp growth has been revised down. we expect the economic recovery to continue, albeit a somewhat weaker pace than earlier expected. reflecting in particular this slowdown in emerging market economies which is weighing on global growth, and foreign demand for exports. the council wanted to emphasize in the discussion today it's willingness to act, it is -- its readiness to act, and its capacity to act. anna: let's get more from our guest host, paul donovan. rejoicing -- reducing growth forecast, is this the ecb just catching up with forecast already out there? or is this a signal of a weaker environment? paul: on the forecast site it is catch up. we don

the market is assuming the ecb will do mark qe. translate into the real economy and equities remain under pressure. andrew: europe is in a tough spot. we've had the benefits of the lower energy prices. those benefits are going to wane into 2016. the market is expecting an increase in quantitative easing and maybe an extension of that. the real question is how much impact does it have on the real economy? transmission mechanism is via the era. if the euro were to appreciate, that would cause the ecb consternation. francine: thank you so much. stay with us. we will be talking about japan next. that conversation brings us to today's twitter question. do you believe janet yellen on a 2015 rate rise? tweet me at @flacqua. hashtag #thepulse. u.s.e said to be under antitrust scrutiny. officials asking whether the tech giant stifled competitor access to the mobile operating system. google shares are down in premarket trade. volkswagen's board expected to name the successor to martin winterkorn today. 27 u.s. states have begun a joint inves

jonathan: what would it take for the ecb to step it up?s ask paul gordon who joined us from frankfurt. where are we now? we spent the last couple of talking about the prospect of more qe. did he push it further down the road? l: as noted, he said time is needed to look at the data. we will perhaps get more clues tonight. to beuld expect the line we are ready to act, and willing to ask. look, the key thing will be inflation data in particular. over the coming weeks, we get the september inflation data just after the end of the month. interesting to see if that is slowing. so, should we weaken at that point, that maybe when they say ok, let's err on the side of caution and step in. float overn trading in frankfurt, working out exactly what the ecb can and cannot buy if they want to boost stimulus. where are we on that debate? let's do the will day, and then what can they buy? paul: all options are on the table. pastan extend the program september 2016, you can broaden it to include the elastic classes, or up the monthly amount. you spoke to

futures adding to the gains and ecb rocking the market, a press conference in minutes.the one on the left. the speedy guy on the right is part of an intelligent system that creates the optimal trip profile for all trains on the line. and the one on the left? uh, looks like it'll be counting cows for awhile. so maybe the same things aren't quite the same. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. >> these markets are rocking and rolling, up 109 points on the dow still average. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. final thoughts here? >> it can be interesting. the jobs numbers tomorrow. if the jobs numbers are too hot puts the fed back on the table for an interest rate hike, i continue is say is not a good idea. maria: sell into the drought. dagen: when world growth is the issue weighing down the markets. if the u.s. economy looks like it's on solid footing. that's good even down the road. maria: dagen mcdowell and scott, thank you for joining us. tomorrow on mornings with maria, 8:30 eastern, we'll be joined by monster worldwide and see where the jobs ar

. >> quickly before we go, dovish comments out of the ecb. reiteration from the imf that global growth is weak. does that mean that the fed would risk an even bigger decoupling so to speak? if they were to raise rates in two weeks? >> i still don't believe they should do it however i will tell you, these are unconfirmed rumors and the watering holes of wall street. that they're serious enough about it to hold conversations with the primary dealers, the people who trade in treasuries. asking what do you think would be a negative consequence if we did it. so it sounds like there's certainly considering it. and are concerned about it. if those rumors are correct. >> i would trust the people in your watering holes, that's for sure, art, art cashin, we appreciate it. >>> happy 20th birthday to ebay, we'll tell you the first thing ever sold on the online auction site. no, it wasn't a pez dispenser, and stocks in the green again today, the dow up better than 150 points. next big driver for today's auks action will be the close in europe. no student'

the ecb can respond. tom: it is everything with a punch bowl filled to the brim and you are seeing that in market volatility. right now, a busy morning. let's get to top headlines. here is funny. is promisingnping to work with the u.s. to fight cybercrime. he was in seattle speaking to american business executives on the first stop of his u.s. visit. he said china was a staunch defender of the cyber security. >> the international community should, on a basis of mutual respect and trust, work together peaceful, secure, open cyberspace. china is ready to set up a high level joint dialogue mechanism with the united states on fighting cybercrime. obama administration is likely to be skeptical. the u.s. has accused china of being responsible for massive cyber attacks on government agencies. with has signed a deal boeing to build a 737 completion center in the country. it will be boeing's first facility of its kind outside the u.s. buy 300s agreed to jets. on the first full day of history to the u.s., pope fran

europeanhe ecb moving markets and we have a little bit of a move in european equities.he nasdaq is off of the red, pretty much unchanged from earlier. 100 -- nearly 1%. let's show you what is happening to u.s. debt, what is happening in the treasury market. it is a mixed picture depending on maturity. no longer unchanged. let's call it unchanged. let's show you what is happening to oil. oil was catching it a little bit on the back of those comments from mario draghi, who said he would step in to support the european economy further, perhaps extend the quantitative easing they launched earlier this year. rise, oil and risk assets but i guess it petered out. mark: and they are looking at inflation as well, because they have the same target as the federal reserve, the ecb inflation target of 2%. olivia: indeed, but further to go. mark: yes, they do. olivia: international news, a federal judge ordered a kentucky clerk to jail after she refused toissue marriage licenses same-sex couples. the judge said she would be jailed until she complies. saying that she answers to a high

what the fed decision means for the ecb in the boj. later, greece -- the second election this year. we are live in athens as political parties wrap up their campaigns. ♪ the federal reserve sidestepped the opportunity to raise rates for the first time since 2006. here is fed chair's janet yellen's news conference in 90 seconds. >> the central open market committee reaffirms the current target range for the federal funds. july,the committee met in the pace of dropped gains has been solid. the unemployment rate has declined. an overall labor market condition has continued to improve. islation, however, continuing to run below are a longer run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy and import prices. we still expect that the downward pressure on inflation from these factors will fade over time. recent global economic and financial developments are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. the outlook abroad appears to have become more uncertain as of late. heightened concerns to back growth in china and other emerging market economies have led to n

will the ecb respond?verbally but nothing -- all the economist we surveyed do not think we will see a benchmark change. get an update on the inflation outlook for this quarter, the last time we got this was in june and in some ways the inflation outlook, the economic growth outlook is more important. we suspect inflation will be revised downward. it was 0.3%, hard to see how you are close to that, especially when you see the price of oil to $43 a$63 a barrel barrel. they will have to factor that in and what it means for quantitative easing and in the presser, china, china, china you are excited as i am. brendan: is mario draghi not the only game in town, is countries like italy doing the structural reforms as needed or are relying -- we relying on mario draghi? hans: some of the structural reforms in italy, spain has made them, what does mario draghi do? will he actually announce something new on quantitative easing, a longer duration beyond the september 2016 deadline, the cutoff, a 1.1 trillion euro prog

we think that the ecb will be dovish tomorrow. think that the fed will not be as bad as it seems but medium term fundamentals still remain poor. >> thank you very much. >> stick around. cross atlantic dealing. could ge be on the verge of ceiling it's $14 billion tie up with alstom? stay tuned to find out. try the superior hold... ...of fixodent plus adhesives. they help your denture hold strong more like natural teeth. and you can eat even tough food. fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. fixodent and forget it. . >>> stefen is in paris with more on this. so it looks like it's going to go ahead stefen. >> absolutely but for the time being alstom denies or declines to comment on the report and will still wait for the decision by the european commission due by september 11th. that's the deadline. according to the financial times they're close to a deal with the european commission and should get a green light very closely. disapproval would come after they agreed to make some concessions. they didn't say precisely where these co

the ecb will also have to use inflation. the ecb inflation is only a derivative of the growth mandate. francine: what does it mean for the bank of england? mark carney is saying we will decide by the turn of the year whether we hike interest rates or not. if it's being delayed in the u.s., it's likely it will be delayed here as well. carsten: looks like it. no one wants to be the first. the bank of england wants to wait for the fed to wake up its mind and come with the first rate hike. francine: what does that mean overall for growth? where are you more optimistic? carsten: i'm optimistic about the u.s. i think the domestic story is a strong one. the u.k. is doing well. everyone is afraid of these famous external circumstances and what is happening in emerging markets. i think no one has the answer but everyone is concerned. the growth story in europe remains a week one. francine: what's your take on the athens election? we have alexis tsipras, almost like a lesson in history. he was calling the imf criminals five months ago

imf is also suggesting that the ecb should expand it's quantitative easing program. the imf and what it has on its agenda, it's responsible largely for these nations. that's when things hit hard when it comes to the stock market. the european central bank policy makers are today and due at 7:45 eastern time. most suggest it will hold back but cut it's inflation forecast. mario draghi will be holding a news conference and covering it all right here. let's get you up to speed on the markets as well. a bit of a huge turnaround with the markets up close to 300 points for the dow. there's green arrows and in combination with what we gained back yesterday you're about back even with what we had two days ago before the big sell off. the dow futures up by 65 points. s&p futures up by 8 points and the nasdaq up by 23. >> here's the other big stories we're watching today. china stock markets closed until monday as the country puts on a massive military parade to commemorate the defeat of japan in world war ii. they watched column after column of tanks, missiles and troops in a

the ecb pledges more easing as needed. this as the former greek finance minister tells cnbc that mario draghi is trapped in an ire cage. >> the central bank of europe is a paradox. on one hand it's extremely powerful. on the other hand it's utterly powerless. >> vladimir putin shrugs off the sharp fall in the oil price but how much of a threat is the china slow down? we have the prime minister later in this show. >>> welcome, everyone to the show. it is one of the most critical jobs reports in recent memory. this could be the number that decides whether the fed will lift off or push out a rate hike this month. economists are expecting another solid month of hiring. forecasts call for 220,000 in non-farm payrolls versus 215,000 in july. august tends to be quirky. numbers are inaccurate as many people are on vacation when the government conducts it's survey but a very important number. >> i wonder where it's going to fall when investors take it as this means september rate hike is there. tweet us with your prediction and whe

-- you look at the ecb. low,a: bond yields are so spanish tenure is less than the 10 year in the u.s.. -- spanish tenure is less than the u.s. 10 year. market turmoil did not keep the biggest part of the u.s. economy from moving ahead. the service industries closing matt growing at the fastest pacn a decade. it makes up 90% of the u.s. economy. everything from farming to retail to restaurants. the european central bank has cut its forecast for growth and inflation through the next two years. draghin frankfurt, mario said that the euro zone economy .ill grow 1.4% this year he revamp plan to measures which have kept the economy growing. the monetary policy measures we have put in place since june of 2014 provide clear support for improvements in borrowing conditions for firms and households and in credit flows across the euro area. olivia: there has been speculation that more stimulus is on the way in europe because of a slowdown in traits. -- trading. brendan: the kentucky county clerk who refuses to issue ma

the ecb meeting is on thursday. everything is up roughly 1%.nd want to note, jim, you were asking earlier what would put in a bottom in the market short term. there's two answers for that. first is to friday, august jobs report. if we get some weird outlier number. i was asking people, what's a weird outlier number, 160,000, way below consensus of 220, that puts a stake in the idea of them raising rates in december. at least we get a number. if we get 280,000, it would increase the chances. we can get a short-term estimate but also a lot of chinese growth metric numbers next week. we'll get trade, cpi, ppi, retail sales on the 12th, and any kind of stability there might also help stabilize the market or potentially if they go in the other direction, unstabilize it. right now we're off the highs of the day, dow up 180 points. >> let's get to the bond pits today and check in with rick who's had a busy morning of data. >> good morning. we're only going to get busier. volatility keeps us busy. if you want to know what's going on in treasuries, of c

patrick: i think the ecb will use words rather than new measures.nk it will be very important that the ecb very quickly comes out, and if japan -- if that the virgins doesn't happen you need strong words from mario draghi, whatever it takes, those types of things, that the ecb's and ready to loosen policy further if the fatty doesn't raise. francine: patrick, thank you so much. patrick armstrong. manus: here is a look at what else is on our radar this friday morning. the bank of korea has kept its key interest rate unchanged for third month, as engages the uncertainties for its economy from the china slowdown. a possible rate rise from the federal reserve. the decision to hold the seven day raise at a record 1.5% was forecast. 17 of 18 economists surveyed agreed. iran nuclear deal has survived to key test despite a republican effort to block the deal. the senate will hold another vote next week, according to a majority leader. manus: a currency trader says a colleague who has since been promoted profited from running foreign-exchange orders. dismiss

ecb is doing it, u.s. has done it. japan is doing more.er, i would say the fed made quite successful ends to that. now they are about to raise rates. however, in japan's case we had some success -- pardon? anna: carry on, i apologize. >> no worries. positive aspect was that yen but the costeak, is a rising percentage. owns moreank of japan than half of its debt with rating companies continuously cutting down its credit rating, i think the long-term credit ability of japanese yen and government debt will be increasingly in question. that will gradually and eventually undermine the ability of the japanese public policies. anna: do you think more quantitative easing is coming? >> that seems to be the only way. in an ideal world, there would be more structural reform, extending retirement, there would be more opposition -- competition, perhaps immigration into japan. then, unless japanese government became's -- becomes bold enough to tackle these issues, i think they will keep using monetary policy, raising the market for the bank of japan, bu

what to expect from the ecb press conference. >> greece is no longer on the agenda. happened,eeting, what and what is the situation today. greece was right on top of the agenda. that is no longer in the play. ,hat we have now is euro which was dropping has brought back up to 112 113. secondly is the inflation part of the equation, it is very important. mario draghi needs to knock that down if you really want do something about it. the reason, as you said commodity prices are dropping. the reason for that is oversupply in the market. they are drafting that, opec or not opec, that is the question for debate. inflation, you will see inflation carry on from this commodity price. >> let's see how the markets are shaping up in europe ahead of that meeting. a pretty optimistic day on the european market. there are all important comments from mario draghi, hoping for pledges of more support. looking at some of the companies moving the markets today, shares jumped by 5% after the low-cost airline reported record -- record passenger numbers. it rates its profit forecast of amo

ecb's segment of the banking sector this year.open away to the euros of the recapitalization of the banking system and possibly qe, quantitative easing from the ecb. a well regarded economist who had difficulty negotiating. what is the verdict so far? if he is continuing on his ability to negotiate with the rest of europe? >> there are reports coming through in the last few hours that they will be reacquainted tomorrow. ..5 hours will be made my morning, the cabinet will be confirmed. much more moderate in temperament and appears to have a much better relationship with credits. he famously ruffled feathers. , thoughe of a diplomat he said to us he will continue to push for some kind of a relief in the four or five areas that he said creditors agreed to put on the table, and still up for negotiation. 50 million euros is part of the creditor's plan. it seems ambitious too many analysts. they have more faith in him than they do on he who caused a lot of attention. brendon: thank you. for more in greece, i'm joined .y hans, let's go r

the ecb,old you about but what about the fed? the odds for a september rate hike held study with investors thinking it's more likely time for an increase. anding us is torsten slok dean baker. volatility makes now the right time to raise rates. why? torsten: there are many things that go into the decision of when is the right time. but once they it going, they don't want to tighten financial conditions too much. may be a good time ironically to do it when markets are saying we don't really know if the economy is strong enough. but if the fed has the confidence, this could be the reason to go into september. david: do you think the timing is right? it is an interesting argument. i would have to say that volatility makes it to my mind less likely. on the one hand, how does the market react we haven't seen a rate hike in eight years. what is the immediate reaction? second, what is the underlying state of the economy eschew mark it doesn't look -- state of the economy? the drop in the euro is going to worsen our trade deficit -- that

they are concerned that if the ecb does more on that, it will send the wrong message. : the ecb has toat. there is not a whole lot they can do, to be honest. from a financial markets perspective, it is something that is always watched and spoken about. the divergence has not become impair onh to start confidence. there are risks going forward. there is a real problem at the core of europe and that could become an issue for investor confidence further down the line. perhaps it is to the bond market, you would start to see investors becoming more and more concerned because of the unsustainable levels of debt. compare and contrast what the ecb does next and what the bank of japan does next. derek: i mentioned earlier that mario draghi did a good job. rhetoric, don't worry, we will reach the inflation goal around september 2016. when you look at the growth figures and you look at what is happening in commodity prices in terms of the currency, there is a real risk the markets come back to asking the very broad fundamental question, what is abe-nomics? became prime he minister is up 1%. in g

it will give the ecb more flexibility. >> this potentially keeps the ecb in an using mode for a longerime. you see the reflection in interest-rate target and currency markets, even energy and whatnot. brendan: you might as well claim is to me right now. what is the significance of the move now within each asset, they used to be able to buy a quarter of each asset and now they can buy one third of it. what does that mean? >> this post a limitation in terms of the entire size of what they could actually purchase. question, they would eventually run out of assets. now by ending the month -- the amount they could buy, it gives them more scope for a bigger program. this lays the groundwork to say, you thought we were doing qe, we are doing qe 2.0. we are also seeing asset creek. brendan: the other news that came out earlier this morning, they could buy irish mortgage debts. we will see an expansion of the kinds of assets they are able to buy. >> right. issue was they would eventually run out of targets. it is not necessarily that they see some problem in the movement, but rather that they h

there we see that the ecb has been a significant rise in its currency. downward pressure from oil -- yes, we size way 5% rebound in the last three days, but that is for very low levels. inflation expectations have fallen in europe if you look at breakeven measures. all those things are likely to set the ecb on a policy of further easing. we expect them to extend their qe program the minimum time commitment. they make it is sense that they will go to negative rights. francine: what do you expect euro-dollar by the end of the year? marvin: low parity. 98, actually. francine: interesting. thank you so much. head of european fx strategies at barclays. here's a look at what i else's on our radar. the biggest rally in 25 years -- oil rallies, and data will show an increase in valves. 27% in therged previous three days, after opec said it is ready to talk to other global producers to achieve a fair and reasonable price. francine: angela merkel and the spanish prime minister are due to hold a news conference on migration near berlin. it comes after merkel called