is there any way the ecb can avoid a taper tantrum? >> i think the way they're managing this tapering is the right way to avoid markets being spooked. markets are being warned every month that at some point in the distant future, looking at 2018, we will start to see lower flows from the ecb in the markets. this is a gradual process. as far as communication is concerned mr. draghi has done an excellent job at managing expectations and setting aside any accident, i think, the markets will actually not be spooked. they know exactly what to expect a very gradual process and no change in the policy rate of the ecb, they're currently at zero percent before 2019 in our opinion. this has been well choreographed and telegraphed by the ecb >> if there is no major corporate reform coming out of the u.s., if there is no phenomenal infrastructure package as donald trump likes to call it, would that be bad for the eurozone would that upset the apple cart? >> i think the u.s. economy is growing slightly above 2% at this point in time the cycle in th

jonathan: who hikes first, the ecb or the boe? >> ecb. >> ecb. >> ecb. jonathan: there we go.ion. maylast longer -- minister or chair yellen? >> yellen. >> yellen. >> yellen. too easy. jonathan: i just love how much trouble you will get in. [laughter] jonathan: you have been watching "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ >> coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week into business around the world. written goes to the polls -- britain goes to the polls again. a diplomatic rift disrupts the arab world. the ecb says no more rate cuts are coming and high drama on capitol hill. >> i don't think it is for me to say if whether the president obstructed. >> this is reality tv. this is not a serious investigation yet. >> apple hopes its new home pod will be another home run. >> tim cook shares insight into the company's strategy. >> music is deep in our dna and

jonathan: who hikes first, the ecb or the boe? >> ecb. >> ecb. >> ecb. jonathan: there we go.ion. who last longer -- minister may or chair yellen? >> yellen. >> yellen. >> yellen. too easy. jonathan: i just love how much trouble you will get in. [laughter] jonathan: you have been watching "bloomberg real yield." ♪ so new touch screens... and biometrics. in 574 branches. all done by... yesterday. ♪ ♪ banks aren't just undergoing a face lift. they're undergoing a transformation. a data fueled, security driven shift in applications and customer experience. which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. hello, mr. deets. every branch running like headquarters. that's how you outmaneuver. tthat's why at comcast,t to be connected 24/7. we're always working to make our services more reliable. with technology that can update itself. and advanced fiber network infrastructure. new, more reliable equipment for your home. and a new culture built around customer service. it all adds up to our most reliable network ever. one that k

the ecb meets in estonia. james in washington after saying the president asked for loyalty. after plummeting stockpiles. qatar continues. this is bloomberg " surveillance."

a big day for the ecb. >> a huge day for the ecb. number one, we are expecting at least 90% of the economist we surveyed expecting the ecb to change the language in its statement and no longer say that risk to growth are tilted to the downside but rather balanced. it's something we've not heard since august of 2011 when jean-claude trichet was president. for me it's going to be an exciting day. >> there were never two words so much focused on in our lifetime. we will catch up for you a little bit later. got to talk about sterling. the one that maybe just got under the radar, this is the probability of a rate hike in september versus december. what you're going to hear from the federal reserve. it's below the probability of a december hike for the first time since march of this year. , all shifting forward their view on when we might get a hike. anna: let's show you where we been overnight in the asian equity session. a slight downward bias. we had james comey, the ecb and the u.k. election, even the chinese data that showed strong ga

who hikes first, the ecb or the boe? >> ecb. >> ecb. >> ecb. jonathan: there we go. final question.t longer, may or yellen? >> yellen. >> yellen. >> yellen. too easy. jonathan: i just love how much trouble you will get in. you have been watching "bloomberg real yield." ♪ . vonnie: it is 12:30 in new york. i am finding quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets." n. i am vonnie quin ♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, the top stories and around the world we are following. u.k. prime minister theresa may firm on brexit as she battles to stay in office after a failed election gamble. the english pound sliding after conservative party losses area plunging into uncertainty days before the brexit negotiations are due to start. and elsewhere, a look at how media deals are impacting the public relations. may vowedle theresa lead the u.k. out of the european union. it comes amid calls

who hikes first -- the ecb are the oav? >> ecb.n: this would change from two years ago. >> ecb. jonathan: final question -- who last longer -- prime minister may or janet yellen? >> yellen. >> yellen. >> yellen. two easy. jonathan: i love how much of what you are getting in. you have been watching bloomberg. ♪ megan: robert kraft leads a a corporate empire worth $5 billion. as the owner of the new england england patriots, he has built an organization that has won five super bowl championships. robert: in our organization, people are free to do what they do and are not encumbered by corporate bs. megan: kraft shares his thoughts on what makes tom brady special. robert: he's the most genuine, nice, hard-working person. a on his toll so with a league over to deflategate. i do not hold grudges, but i will also do not forget anything. [laughter] megan: and on his close, personal bond with president

the ecb meets in estonia.omeyfbi director james in washington after saying the president asked for loyalty. after plummeting stockpiles. qatar continues. this is bloomberg " surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. a lot of news to get through. it is ecb. u.k. election. we cannot talk about polling, anything to do with the various issues at play, but what we can tell you is polls open at 7:00 a.m. in the u.k. and will close at 10:00 p.m.. you will have the first indication of who will be the prime minister of the u.k.. meantime, let's get on to data. investors seem to be a little more at ease with some of the key events. we are not seeing huge moves. financial markets mostly steady, investors avoiding big positions ahead of key events in europe. the u.s. and the testifying of edgingomey appeared oil higher. a nice snapshot of what we are looking at. 46.04.il in the u.s. at workerst to the first -- first word news with nejra cehic. in the u.k., polling stations are now open for the country's second general

between the ecb and its chairman.ake a look at where the upside stands. these are percentage gains. pandora, kara up. interesting downside stories. 20 of ex-dividends to be aware of. story, just two days away from the general election in the u.k. as jeremy corbyn and theresa may make their final pitches for votes. markets brace for a bumpy ride. let's talk about volatility. one week, one month volatility spiked higher. capturing the risk event. we have other risk event's in the next few days including the ecb, lust the testimony of mr. comey. we're watching carefully. joining us is an fx strategy at ing. good morning. let's start with the pound. kohl's have tightened, we take our choice on which we don't believe. how is the market set up in sterling going into this event? >> the knee-jerk reaction for sterling is a function of getting a stable political environment. the status quo of the conservative majority and a small gain in seats should be modest, but our view is for sterling to move higher now, we expect -- we n

jonathan: as of the ecb leaving the door open for the federal reserve to get the ecb going?er of reasons, the fed has an incredible window to move. we talked about the dispersion between the bank of japan and the ecb. there's a lot of talk about to be issue long debt in the u.s.? what is much more important is quite likely where the central bank's are going to go. jonathan: we're going to answer some questions with one word answers. behind the curve or too far ahead? >> behind the curve. jonathan: european high-yield or u.s. high-yield? >> u.s. high-yield. jonathan: long brazil or long south africa? >> long brazil. jonathan: returns before yellen is out? >> no. jonathan: short or long-term duration? >> short. jonathan: chair yellen to hike three times next year, yes or no? >> i would say yes. that is the general direction. jonathan: rick rieder and the guys at black rock. this is "bloomberg reayield." ♪ ♪ emily: it has been nearly six years since tim cook to go over apple for steve jobs. he put off the largest acquisition in apple history. he is taken on issues like the envi

the ecb on tour.will bring you pull coverage on bloomberg tv. ♪ emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. coming up, democrat senator joe manchin joins us ahead of former fbi director james comey's congressional testimony. jonathan: from london, it is good afternoon and to new york, it is good morning. we are moments away from an ecb policy rate decision. euro-dollar a little bit softer. around the table with me for a quick look ahead, vasileio gkionakis of unicredit and dean turner of ubs wealth management. what are the specifics you are looking for? vasileio definitely the part of the forward guidance -- vasileio : definitely the part of the forward guidance. we are confidence -- we are companies they will remain in reference to the low. of course, not the sequence per se, but we are well past the horizon of asset purchases, so that is by far the most important aspect. jonathan: dean? the markets will be looking out for the removal of the forward guidance. perhaps we could see some volatility in the currenc

the ecb will be the big event tomorrow. today, according to people familiar with the matter, the ecb will cut its inflation forecast. the euro is little changed now. tomorrow is the big one. this is our wonderful function, telling you everything you need to know about matters of the european union. these are the polls ahead of the election tomorrow. the majority believe the tories 8 majority.2 a lot closer than several weeks ago. oil plunging, julie, what is the latest? lows: remaining a run the of the session after receiving those inventory reports. 46.50. it was partly to do with crude supplies climbing by 3.3 million barrels, but it also has to do with gasoline. i have a look at gasoline supplies as well as demand. you have supplies, inventory in blue. you have an uptick in that inventory of 3.2 million barrels. you also have gasoline demand which have been going down. that is the four-week average. demand falling by 23,000 barrels a day. this is disturbing because it is summer driving season. people apparently are not t

jonathan: is it the ecb moving?for a number of reasons, the fed has edible window to move. absolutely. if you said to me, there is a lot of talk about issuing long debt the u.s. what is more important today is where these other central banks go. jonathan: to wrap it up and answer some short, sharp questions. behind the curve, or too far ahead? for the federal reserve. >> behind the curve. jonathan: behind the curve european high-yield or u.s. , high-yield? rick: u.s. high-yield. jonathan: long europe or south africa? tableau long brazil. : jonathan: yes or no? rick no. : jonathan: short or long? jeff short. : jonathan: chair yellen to hike three times next year? yes or no, rick rieder? rick: i would say -- i would say yes. that is the general direction of travel. jonathan: rick rieder and the guys at black rock, this is "bloomberg real ♪ >> it hasn't been nearly six years since tim cook took over cofounder, iconic steve jobs. there will be apple watch and apple music, he pulled off the largest acquisition in history

is the ecb happy with that level?t does not have a currency policy, not a target exchange rate but you would imagine this is getting towards the levels where it may be nervous, 11. -- 1.14. mario draghi has done this before, put in trial balloons into speech and -- beaches, done it in jackson hole, it is is what he isthat doing and put language in his speech which he thinks he can bring up again at a future date. vonnie: exactly, we are on the same page. market, thehe bond way it is now? when we get more details on toxit, we have another year hear what the terms will be with trade. will there be major shifts and bond markets, rate markets, and fx markets when we know more? >> the main point is that the euro economy is doing well. growth is relatively strong. for european levels, it is quite strong. it is improving and broadening to the countries of the euro area, even weaker ones like italy. this is something the ecb has to take into account and bond markets are taking into account. inflation is interesting. a sign th

that should be a sign that the ecb is moving. the baby steps towards the exit scenario, many people think they will unveil either in september or as well in december of this year. so another area of language tweaks might be the area where they could skip that downward bias when it comes to interest rates. that means that they should probably not say any more, that they also could cut rates in the event of an adverse economic scenario. of course, a lot of focus will be the inflation outlook. we get an update of the so-called staff projection for economic growth and inflation and there are many reports which say that the ecb will cut its inflation outlook again to 1.5% for the next three years on average, which would, of course, get more ammunition to the doves in the governing council. the doves, they want, of course, the extraordinary stimulus, meaning the quantitative easing program to stay in place as long as we don't see -- as we see the inflation rate not really picking up sustainablely. the hawks are saying, well, we're gett

that may not be what the ecb intended >>.d all the research from various banks and wall street and they focused on those words as well, prudence and persistence and not much has changed. it is the new information, the that seems to be moving the market. how is this playing out? you have the ecb trying to walk this back after the fallout in the market? paul: it is a topic of discussion, i can assure you of that. the vice president said markets are sometimes hard to understand but his message was that really the statement by mario draghi was exactly the same as he said in his press conference after the last policy meeting on june the eighth. suggested board members and 125 governing council members. there is new fodder in the remarks of mario draghi. jonathan: set me up for the rest of the day because we've got some action in portugal and some names begin later. -- some big names speaking later. concludesecb forum with a policy panel where we have mario draghi sitting down with mark carney, and mr. kuroda those heads of banks c

vonnie: -- jonathan: is it the ecb moving?number of reasons, the fed has edible window to move. absolutely, there is a lot of talk about issuing long debt the u.s. what is more important today is where these other central banks go. jonathan: we're going to get you to answer some short questions with one word answers. , or too farurve ahead? for the federal reserve. >> behind the curve. jonathan: european high-yield or u.s. high-yield? >> u.s. high-yield. jonathan: long europe or south africa? >> long brazil. jonathan: yes or no? >> no. jonathan: short or long? >> short. jonathan: chair yellen to hike three times next year? -- i would say yes. that is the general direction of travel. jonathan: because of lack rock. ♪ york is 12:30 p.m. in new and 12:30 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york city, here are the top stories around the world where following. n will by wholezo foods for $13.7 billion. investors rent their top three market concerns for the second half

for the ecb, it is different.hey are overseeing a huge challenge, a huge project, and without the ecb, there are many other problems that you don't even want to think about. i think they lose very long time. we are trying to reach new superlatives here to go beyond gradual, like with the fed. talking of germany, you still believe that the bund yield goes higher. steven: by year-end, but that is still six months away. our most recent publication, we have kept the forecast very low for the next six months. it is not going to go up for a few months. guy: but it is going up? steven: well, if the ecb starts to point towards the exit later this year and this means talking 2017, thenlate in the bund yield should be higher. a goodthinks bund is value at 25 basis points 10 years or -50 42. bones atno value in these levels. -- bund at these levels. we are locked in a very tight low range. the forecast would adjust according to incoming information. at the moment, bund yield's stock. -- yield is stuck. is stuck.tion survey d

timm: the ecb has further to go.loyment rate was much higher and it is coming down and behaving as one might expect in terms of employment versus inflation. it is the other countries where employment seems to be pretty full, inflation might be somewhat asymmetrical. one senses that labor will take it higher. it is not coming through from commodities as you point out. but bonds with negative yield or close to zero, it is not entirely obvious that we are inspired by these markets. anna: our consumers inspired? consumers inspired? germany and the eurozone at the top and italy a bit of a laggard on this front. the italian story fit in? germany you look at with its implement right -- unemployment rate, it is a hot economy that negative interest rates which seem to be inappropriate. it is not interest rates that are causing it, it is animal spirits in germany. france seems to be turning around. with greater confidence with macron and his latest election wins. and italy where growth has stagnated, there are still nonperform

caution is raining -- the ecb meeting to the u.k. election, the u.s. while havens such as gold, the yen come in u.s. treasuries going up. more from our interview with tim cook, he explains what took apple so long to come up with homepod. later this hour, speaking with the role of-- public-private partnership. halfway through the trading day this tuesday. well into june and julie hyman, looking red. j

the ecb and u.k. heading to the polls.s is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final spread. over the next week, right decisions from the ecb, australia, and india. the big event in the u k, the election. june 8 is busy. the u.k. election, the ecb, and director comey is testifying as well. join me as bob michele, kathleen gaffney, and michael collins. what are you looking for? michael: we are going to start talking about tapering purchases of bonds. the fed is talking about reducing the size of mount sheet, and the ecb is talking about reducing purchases. look at the data out of europe, spain, italy, greece moving ahead. europe is outgrowing the u.s. right now. kathleen: i completely agree. europe is going to become the focus. there is a lot of youthfulness coming out of your. we have inflation there. jonathan: i want to go to the rapidfire around. one word answers from each of you. do we had 2% on the tenure before we had 2.5%? bob: 2.5% kathleen: 2%. michael: i wish it

they are keen to avoid the mistakes he's playing it ultraly cautious ultimately the ecb will need to keep rates accommodative despite the criticism mounting from the germans. >> last month we heard from the ecb that they're backing off slightly from further rate cuts. the language was they expect rates to remain at the present levels for an extended period of time and not see a further cut soon was that tiny tweet to language, do you think we heard from draghi in the past 24 hours that will pour cold water on the idea >> i don't think so the mantra here and the sentiment is that we're here to stay for a while the downside rates to interest rate cuts have diminished. given the momentum in the european economy remains robust. we had a pick up of inflation in the near-term. they can be cautious but also slightly optimistic about the growth outlook >> do you think governments are listening to mario draghi when he says i can't do this on my own? this is something you guys need to take control of i need to prop up growth that's my job to give you a window of opportunity. is that something

ecb and u.k. elections.assic haven assets, i want to show you santander because we had exclusive interview with the ceo because they bought banco regular. she said it makes sense because we know what we are buying and banco is not too risky. tom cole: we have to dive into washington. the news flow last night was extraordinary. you can go back 40 years for the speed of the news flow. let us digress rather and look at dana milbank in "go washington post" and tries to get ahead of the story. andn "the washington post" tries to get ahead of the story. under the president, we don't have a prayer. it was quite an op ed. joining us is kevin cirilli. what will the vice president be doing tomorrow during the testimony? that's a question i put to several of his top aides and i while -- and i will have to get back to you. some schedules are being worked out. the president will be in cincinnati later today and during the hearings tomorrow, he dana be live tweeting, milbank reported will be at the prayer breakfast and a

the ecb, thursday will be an important day for the ecb. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here's juliette saly. juliette: u.k. premised or theresa may said she would be willing to tear up human rights legislation and the battle against terrorists. germany corbyn set the correct response was to invest in the police and security services while protecting democratic values including the human rights act, security continues to dominate the general election with one day to go before polling day. --. attorney general seth jeff sessions it does -- has suggested he might resign because of a widening rift with donald trump. hisas come under fire for recusal of an investigation of russian meddling. spicer would not say whether trump still has confidence in sessions. fbi -- fired fbi director james comey will describe conversations with donald trump stop short of saying the president sought to obstruct a probe into russia's role in that election. he has coordinated his testimony to the senate intelligence committee with robert mueller, an

paul: the ecb says it does.eds the ability to oversee systemically important clearing houses. this feeds into a proposal by the european commission to force the large one. now, it is worth remembering the ecb has tried this before, prior to the u.k.'s brexit vote. in 2015.entually lost the ecb do not have the legal competence to do what he wanted to do. now it is asking for the competence. nejra: i was just about to ask you because although this has become a real flashpoint in the brexit talks, it is not the first time this has happened. what is the outcome from last time say about what might happen next? paul: well, the key stumbling block towards this lack of legal competence, at the time, they said they procedure of the ecb would be a brute force to ask for treaty change. clearly, this has to go to the general counsel and the european parliament. that could be a fairly lengthy and complicated process, but it is a way ford, and it does raise considerably the odds of success for the ecb this time around. vonnie

and its relationship with the ecb.s an interesting want to watch because this highlight some of the difficulty that the ecb has as a regulator and some of the difficulties it has as a provider of policy when it comes to monetary policy. fixed, it's not completely fixed, here in europe. this highlights one of the weaknesses that remains ongoing surrounding the eurozone and its recovery. valentin, the ecb talks about the job is done with inflation, but it knows it's not done with fixing the financial system in the eurozone, getting monetary policy and transmission mechanism to work across the continent. it's a has a massive job to do. how does that get reflected in the statement he delivers thursday? >> on the whole, the ecb remains committed to providing credit stimulus or indeed keeping liquidity conditions in the eurozone supported. down the for banks road. from that point of view, we expect and the bigger picture that the ecb will continue to move gradually to the exit when it comes to qe buying government bonds and

-- one option is for the ecb to take direct oversight.le, national regulators, primarily germany, france and italy, the biggest economies in the area, would like to retain oversight over clearing within their countries. a lot morets activity would take place in those nations. this is not a debate that has been resolved. it may not be for some time. has takenthe ecb today strengthens its case as an organization and the euro system as a whole for taking this on board. , in: let me just ask you the german newspaper a couple of weeks ago, there was an desbankew with a bun board member, he suggested the possibility this could move not only outside eu, but off the continent to chicago. why would a -- why would that even be a possibility? paul: he was pointing that out as a risk. just because the clearing his pushed out of london doesn't mean it would come to the euro area. a lot of clearing takes place in other jurisdiction and that is -- was fear of that happening. once again, the ecb has the legal competence to insist on oversight within the

we have a great exclusive interview with benoit coeure, the it was the ecb member. -- the exclusive ecb member. mark, what does the data look like? mark: we are low today, quite a losing run for the stoxx euro 600. we saw a big selloff in technology shares in the u.s. on friday. sterling, not as big a decline as we saw on friday in the wake of the inconclusive election result on friday, which sent sterling down 2.5%. at the end of the day, sterling is down by 1.6% roughly. investors are looking ahead, mean for short-term versus long-term volatility? u.k. 10 year field has barely changed today. it fell three basis points on friday. investors weighing up what the election means, weighing up against data. we had weak consumer data today. the boe this week, wage data. and gold also falling for the first week in five last week, marginally higher. the fed expected to raise rates this week against political uncertainty. thank you, makr. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. reporter: in france, president is on course for a landslide victory after the first round of voting for the nationa

the conditional guarantees from the ecb. macron is trying to challenge that, but i think we all realize his possibility of success is still low. andie: where in europe, let's add the u.k., our bonds correctly priced? eric: i think the entire government bond market is very , globally.rrently there are interesting opportunities in parts of emerging markets. you might argue there is some valuable data in a 30 year treasuries, where you are getting a positive return. but the experience of bond investors have been fantastic the last five years ago. but if you look at the perspective real return, the best you can hope for is not to lose too much money. because you are getting negative implied real returns. that is absolutely a finite game. if you look at the five year real return, it is negative. nejra: we will talk about treasuries in a second. i want to show you this chart. growth inflation and the boe, talking about the u.k. we are looking at 10-year gilts 1.03%. at should that be higher? personallyld not worry too much about s

and ecb are in the same boat.have to depend on the july and august inflation numbers to tell us what will happen in september. i think that's when the ecb is expected to make an announcement about its tapering decision, to scale back its 60 billion to maybe $30 billion next year and the fed has to make a decision about the balance sheet as well as whether they deliver the third rate hike. the images that fed hikes in june and this week and then a december destin in september as well and then december they give the announcement about the reduction in the balance sheet. jonathan: it feels like they are on the federal reserve and the ecb and i don't know many people who think we will get to the end of the year and the ecb will remain with qe at 60 billion euros. regardless of what the data will be, do you believe truly that the ecb's next move is data dependent? a it is, does it have to be substantial move away from the current should directory? raise a good point, inflation remains low. the ecb's point last week was

. >>> some of the world's most influential central bankers will meet at the ecb forum sgo and sto. >>> and stocks to watch. we'll round up the movers. it's wednesday june 28, 2017 "worldwide exchange" begins right now. >>> good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen >> i'm mike santoli in for wilfred frost. >> and the rest of the week. happy to have you. >> until the end of the quarter. >> especially with this market move yesterday >> a lot going on. >> so let's check on global markets. after we did see a selloff s&p closed lower by 0.8%, the worst day since mid-may for stocks certainly the s&p and the dow. futures looking positive there the nasdaq still under pressure which is the concern for the overall market now those tech stocks weighing down. we have a quick early indication of the so-called f.a.n.g. stocks which have been driving the markets. facebook, amazon, netflix and google or alphabet alphabet is the only one higher in the premarket otherwise seeing some declines for amazon, netflix, facebook. the winners yesterday got crushed. the broadcoms of th

what do you think about the ecb and draghi's comments.y seemed initially much less dovish than the market had expected from the ecb president, but he then had the ecb walk's comments back shortly thereafter, confusing the markets even more. ewen: i think we need to unpack it between the market positioning, which has driven a lot of the fluctuation in the short term. that what mario draghi was saying, it is evolving a little bit and the important sentiment was about if we keep policy as it is an asnomy continues to recover, our saying a moment ago, we would be loosening financial conditions. i do not think that is inconsistent. , that is the question the reporters on a focus on. what he is saying is that we are going to reduce the pace of accommodation. we have told you that already, and in preparing you for the timing of this and the degree of this. supremeaghi is a manager of medication. he has had previous forms as it were. and whatever it takes. prepare beginning to markets for the change. year-end forecast on my bloomberg is .6 accord

ecb inevitably start to heads to the exit, that is bad for spreads.n on that argument. mr. macron did very well in the national assembly. he has a mandate, and this was one of his primary driver's, to drive europe in a more positive direction. therefore i can assume germany will underwrite it. he's still very keen on integration, and integration at some point has to mean some sort of mutually assured bond market. does but itially think we are a long way away from true eurobonds. with regard to the macron story, one message we are seeing is that in order for germany and france to work closely, in order for macron to be seen as credible, the germans are still going to require that pound of flesh. he is going to have to make a lot of structural form in france. 50 billion euros is the number we are talking about cutting for the public sector. that is likely to be disruptive for france, and it means that is italy wants to be seen as a credible member of the world, it has to get the structural reforms done. which means that yes, macron has a positive vision

the euro a little bit softer ahead of the ecb, with reports saying that the ecb staff forecast will be fo projection. maybe we have a dovish surprise in store. yields up a single basis point, 215 on the tenure. year. david: the big news this morning and that last hour has been the new fbi director. jas comey of testifying in front of congress, president trump has nominated a replacement. he tweeted, i will nominate christopher a ray, a man of impeccable credentials, to be the new director of the fbi. details to follow. joining us now is a woman i was turn to when i want to know the law, lenny o'kelly. what we know about mr. wray? >> first off, he's not a high profile person, but he's a career prosecutor type and has worked in private practice as well. he was not a politician. david: like joe lieberman. : he has done a number of things we remember well like the enron task force. more recently he represented credit suisse and its settlement with the u.s. government over helping americans evade taxes. hereost significant thing might be that he represented the chris christie in the bridge

anna: is that enough to worry the ecb?didn't hear anything that nicholas was saying in the green room, but i think that they made a lot of money betting against the fed and they are overpositioned in this current situation. ecbstart seeing mthe moving very aggressively and does the 1.20 euros scare mario draghi? absolutely. tohas done a lot of work improve from a trade standpoint. will he have to live with this? it is coming to that place where he has to feel comfortable. ds?t: where do we see bon we are at 0.728. that seems rather low for the normalizing ecb. >> they could have the handle and there is no question on that. that reflects the reality of the economic environment. gils? >> it is a tricky one. it is difficult to see the bank of england moving rates. we have the reality of the trajectory of growth being down. you think of uncertainty and it is probably building and not declining. in the eurozone, the uncertainty is declining and that gives a little more wiggle room. >> thank you very much. head of -- he will als

we're seeing a jump in the euro as the ecb president talks up the economy.ll just got more complicated more republican senators voicing opposition after the cbo scored the bill a live report from washington straight ahead. >>> and if you're planning to hit the road for independence day, you're not alone. we'll tell you why you can blame low gas prices for the 37 million americans you'll be sharing the road with on the fourth of july it's tuesday, june 27, 2017, "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. >>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the music, we think, is referring anyone planning to travel over the holidays, not the beginning of the show. joe and andrew are off today our guest host is jason trennert from strategas research. thank you for cluing me in on the music. >>> eu antitrust regulators fining alphabet 2$2.7 billion google has been accused of promoting its own shopping search service over those

it's the euro that will move on the ecb. dollar/yen for comey and the pound for the british election. that's all you need to know today. right now, we're sealing a whole lot of nothing head of these big risk evens. a little bit of buying for the dollar versus the yen. perhaps why you're seeing that in futures and early action in europe. quickly, let's just show you gold, which is backing off a little bit. it's been stronger lately trading near a seven-week high. it's down .5%. this is another place you want to look today when it comes to policy uncertainty around the globe. could lift gold. ite up about 12%, 13% so far this year? >> so far, year-to-date. a lot of that came just this month. >> true. >> wall street will be closely watched in washington again today as former fbi director james comey delivers highly anticipated testimony before congress. this will be comey's first public statement since being fired last month by president trump. comey's opening 125i789 was released late yesterday on the senate intelligence commi

with the ecb, it really has been what the market saw the ecb may be. ready to be more assertive draghi pulled things back. we would expect to see this from the boj as well. when is the yield curve going to be recalibrated? are they going to increase -- four yen appreciation, if it is domestically drive. n. it's a story our investors are not focused enough on. yvonne: what we are showing now from our bloomberg library is v btv -- it shows various european countries showing the same pattern. inflation started to rise. where so many central banks could not get inflation to move towards target, in terms of the g-7 countries, what does that affect investors? what do you buy or sell? geoffrey: private investors, we are still advocating diversification. we think eurozone equities to the u.k., they are risk strong in earnings beyond what is being priced now. the other thing on the private side, we are trying to shift more risk. cash ratios are very high right now. when people ask, where do you see value? valuations aside, the value aside, you have to look at w

likely the next step for the ecb tightening. the bias is probably in that direction. only friend we have been central-bank land is over and asia, bank of japan, for the most part now. that said, whether the central bank is supporting or detracting from demand in a given market is defined by whether they are tightening faster or slower than what is priced in. what is priced in right now for most central-bank action is a relatively gradual pace of tightening. if we generally do get tightening that is not priced in, that poses a modest problem for risk assets. i doubt it is a huge one. the issues with high-yield are really aboutif we generally do t tightening that is not priced vs to the equity market rather than direct central-bank policy. jonathan: everyone seems to be confused by bank of england policy. jim caron with guy lebas and margaret patel. let's get you up to speed on the markets. what a week it has been. yields higher by a margin of three basis points. big move further down the curve. 13 basis points. on theet back up to 282 30-year treasury still ahead, the

ecb seems to be struggling a little bit.have growth that is coming in and they want to eventually monetaryr extra very stimulus, but they don't want to roil markets. right? guest: ecb is in a good position right now. europe is recovering and it looks broad-based. going all the way to greece. it is just germany as the main engine, all the countries in the eu seem to be improving and we have seen that affect in terms of equity markets as well as emerging markets. if you lookeeing, at relative valuations, very positive. the outlook is positive for the eu. that means the ecb is probably going to maintain its stance. jockey has suggested it. they will continue their program in early 2018. rates are certainly on hold, inflation rates have been close to the targets, but still below target. i don't think you will see any rates rise. the rate for the u.s. to raise its rates and therefore, we want to have a lower euro because that helps exports. from the ecb addition, making liquidity in the markets, let markets revived, hope that wil

it sounds to me as if the ecb is flying a bit of a kite.e hand they are saying the academy is less dependent on the ecb buying bonds, but on the other we are saying it is too early to discuss. i think that means they are flying a kite to they want to see how markets respond. bestme point in the civil 6-12 months, the ecb will have to get off events and start to frame something in terms of policy and the markets are awaiting to hear. when we going to get that tapering? you stabilize interest rates and you start to address qe and and then and only then you start to take about raising interest rates. it feels to me they are inching towards that point. get out of europe at the moment, there is a much stronger case to be made on steadier ground but not necessarily study ground just yet. if you take the yellow line on this chart it is the bloomberg intelligence super court. that is highlighted in the yellow. that has not budged a square inch. to europeanrush equities, the money flowing into european equities, the ability to reduce prices is not t

let's get back to the ecb story. ecb prevented -- proposing a statute change for euro clearing.int around brexit, isn't it? matt: right, and not something everyone agrees on. the bank of france governor has said he wants to move eu clearing -- clearing of derivatives into the eurozone. we have heard that the u.k. wants to keep them in london and even some bund is bank cash bund is bank think it should be going back to chicago where most of the biggest clients are located. proposal, the european commission is going to talk about this over many months and then in november, donald tusk has said the council will vote on where to move certain like they bodies, clearing regular, the medicines authority, a lot of these regulatory bodies they want to move possibly into the you -- eu or maybe put somewhere else. anna: this story will run and run, we have heard high-level voices weighing in on the topic. where you are, all of the conversation was around the rights of you citizens after brexit. what is theresa may offering to the 3 million who live in the u.k.? she is offering for eu 27 ci

that is not near where the ecb is targeting.ch as central banks would like to normalize rates and get the -- get on with the process, there is really no durable upside yet. vonnie: the would you summarizet the bank for international settlements is telling us right now? richard: the banks for international settlements is key in for central banks to return to some type of "normalization." it is difficult for central banks to achieve that globally, because, in the case of the ecb, they're one mandate is inflation. one mandate is inflation. it is not picking up. i think the fact that wages are not taking up as quickly as -- picking up as quickly as they should be is a conundrum for all central banks. the swiss national bank, the ecb, the bank of england, the fed. what the bis would like them to achieve is becoming more difficult. vonnie: it feels like a pause time in economic data until the tea leaves say what they will. do traders take the summer off? richard: i am not sure they take the summer off, but we are probably in for some

the trifecta tomorrow, ecb, comey, and the u.k. elections. this chart shows the last six prime ministers in the u.k. and how the ftse fared under each. blair, down 47. brown, down 18. she has a long way to go to catch up with the lady known as the iron lady, margaret thatcher. sterling, what is it going to do depending on the outcome of the election? should the election result in a hung parliament, this is according to a bloomberg poll of analysts, signaling a drop to 123.50. a labour party victory is not seen as bearish on the sterling. a victory for the tories would be supportive of the pound. lots of eventualities that we will discuss with our guest. this is showing the probability of a particular parties win based on betting. very different to what the polls are telling us. one caveat, the betting odds leading up to the brexit vote were implying a probability of 22.9% of the u.k. leaving the eu. we all know what happened that day. vonnie: absolutely, thank you. there is something happening today, donald trump breaking big news earlier on

and for the ecb.hey come back to cricket? do you believe that was because it went to pay for view television that that audience was lost? i think you can say that. but as i said earlier, you have a situation where the money was there to get more kids playing. 0ften there to get more kids playing. often more help to the clubs who we re often more help to the clubs who were struggling at that stage. but now we really have got this wonderful sort of situation where we can get the young kids watching on tv again throughout the country and it really is a huge bonus. as i say, it really is a huge bonus. as i say, it really is a huge bonus. as i say, it really does mean a huge amount and ties in with the all stars cricket, the 5—8 —year—olds, watching t20 cricket live on the bbc, it's a fantastic outcome. the ecb's deal is worth £1.1 billion. in your day you were a household name and face because of free to air television, but perhaps not as wealthy as you might have been. television, but perhaps not as weal