is this the moment that the ecb front runs the fed? lizzie: only one of our 62 economists surveyed reckons that today is the day the ecb is going to fire the starting got on cuts. you are right. the u.s. cpi report has rocked even ecb bets for a june cut. that was fully priced this time last week and now it's only an 80% chance in the eyes of markets. what difference does a month or to make, you might ask? if they go too soon, before the fed, it risks euro-dollar parity. so that could feedback into eurozone inflation. on the other hand, the risk of going too late -- this is a different picture in the euro area than the u.s.. it could tip it into recession. even the most hawkish member of the governing council has warned of the dangers of holding rates too high for too long. because indeed, here you haven't seen any growth for about a year and a half compared to the u.s. where you've seen that 3% growth last year. that's a start contrast. today, the expectation is that christine lagarde will telegraph a june cut. the focus in the press

covering the ecb closely. when we talk about the ecb perhaps front running the federal reserve, what does that mean in terms of strategy after that first rate cut? if we get that happen in june, is that setting up the stage for rate cuts every meeting on words, how is the ecb thinking about it? >> it's an excellent question and i'm afraid i'm not having an answer for you just yet. the president left all her options open. we heard it in the clip. she said, if confidence in the inflation path towards 2% increases, then the ecb can remove some of that restriction. she also said policymakers are not pretty committed. they will continue to look at the data and see how it comes in. of course, we get the next projections in june that will tell us a lot. that everybody expects to form the basis for that first cut. what happens after is unclear. the projections, so far the march ones, are built on assumptions the ecb would be cutting interest rates by 100 basis points this year. strictly speaking if you want projection

when it comes to june and the ecb, should the ecb already be cutting?istine lagarde said in december it is likely going to be june. when you see the cpi print happening in the u.s., how difficult does it make that decision? jonathan: in the news conference today, one challenge and i imagine someone is going to ask it, how important is the fx channel to present stability? -- fx channel to press stability -- price stability. lisa: i am checking the euro weakens more, plane tickets to europe. how much could this be positive for the nation besides just importing goods at higher prices? to me, you have to think it is going to be a boost for people who want to fly. is this not where your money goes? jonathan: my flights are already booked. annmarie: this is what you're has done so good after covid, the influx of americans that wants to go to spain or greece. jonathan: your flights are booked, too. there is a g7 if you are interested in a work trip. try and make that happen. annmarie: i am close to making that happen. jonathan: more yuba state ahead, ppi and j

christine lagarde said the ecb will cut rates soon barring surprises.t's steadily moving toward its target, adding that officials just need to build a bit more confidence before cutting rates. sara eisen asked the ecb president as well whether three rate cut this year is a reasonable expectation. >> i wouldn't comment on that because if you had asked me two or three months ago, i would be expecting more than three. and i think we're better off than our central bank perspective, of course, looking at what they anticipate because they're big boys -- too many boys, but they're big boys. they run their models, they observe things, take risks, assess, you know, term premium, but we have to be deta-dependent. we have to look at our own work, and we're very steady and focused on what we are seeing, and we'll play judgment at the end of the day day. what is produced has to be taken into account on our part with the help of the governors. >> she says the ecb is not set on cutting first. >> we are data-dependent. our data came down in march. we have had a little

let me ask you that question, will the ecb go first. i you that question, will the ecb go first. ~ . first. i think it certainly will go first. i think it certainly will go first. probably _ first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not _ first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not today - first. i think it certainly will go first. probably not today but i first. i think it certainly will go - first. probably not today but most likely injune, and that will be the start of a sequence of rate cuts. the big question of course is how many and how deep those cuts will be. talk me through what the ecb will be weighing up right now. the ecb will be will be weighing up right now. tue: ecb will be very will be weighing up right now. tte: ecb will be very much focused on domestic generated inflation but also wage numbers. on the wage numbers, it came in at 3.3% for march. so, the wage numbers are really looking as if they will support a number of rate cuts this year. i think four rate cuts this year. i think four rate cuts this year are likely and then maybe one or two mo

mice the ecb taking an easy allied in its monetary stance. is senior advisor to the international capital markets association. thank you. thank you. the leaders of the world's two biggest economies, joe biden and xijinping, spoke on the phone on tuesday in the first engagement between since they met in san francisco in november. this comes as the us treasury secretary embarks on her second trip to china in less than a year. 0ur north america business correspondent, erin delmore, has the details. the mark the one—on—one communication between us presidentjoe biden and chinese presidentjoe biden and chinese president xijinping presidentjoe biden and chinese president xi jinping since november. they had a lot of ground to cover. the risks linked with rapidly developing ai technology and military communications and the trafficking of illicit drugs like fentanyl. why how summary of the court included a few others like china's unfair trade policies and preventing access to advanced us technology. 0n the chinese side president xi recorded called us s

ecb rate cut.to see ou, and ecb rate cut. lovely to see you. fiona- _ and ecb rate cut. lovely to see you, fiona. have— and ecb rate cut. lovely to see you, fiona. have a _ and ecb rate cut. lovely to see you, fiona. have a great- and ecb rate cut. lovely to see you, fiona. have a great day. i billie eilish, pearljam and nicki minaj are among more than 200 artists who've signed an open letter to tech companies and ai developers calling for an end to predatory use of artificial intelligence in the industry. michelle fleury in new york has more. to billy, aia is the bad guy and for katy perry it is time to rise. a growing number of musicians say companies are training ai musicians say companies are training al to replace artists. in an open letter they acknowledge the creative potential of ai but called on tech companies and developers to stop using it to infringe upon and devalue the right of human artists. 0ne upon and devalue the right of human artists. one year ago suppose a collaboration between

for the ecb, we expect four rate cuts. think they will be done next year as inflation will converge to 3% than the 2% the ecb now expects. >> june for the ecb seems all but certain with the oil markets staying calm. christof reiger, thank you. >>> coming up on the show, maintaining the full-year outlook as it expands the use of a.i. with telenor. we will discuss with the ceo next. what rkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. we put our heart into celebrating moms. we are local farmers, bakers, florists and makers who grow and create with a passion. 1-800 flowers. for mom, with love. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot

that is a very good sign for the ecb.t gives them most likely room to cut rates as soon as june this year. how often they are going to cut remains to be seen. one person close to the governing county spoke to was saying they probably stick to the june rate cut and might pause a little bit because they guided the market toward that rate cut in june. then they could pause a couple of months until there's clarity about the path of inflation. that could be one option. of course, if you look at the euro area, we are in a different world than the united states. the economy is less dynamic. we have seen in the recent ecb lending survey that loan demand from the real economy is falling like a stone. that also indicates that future economic developments is on the stagnating side and not dynamic. we have the economy and the wage round and the recent march inflation print at 2.4% which is close to the target. i guess the ecb, for the first time in its existence, might move ahead of the fed when it comes to changing the interest rate

role it plays in the ecb analysis.xpectation is it will confirm lending conditions are not deteriorating rapidly and that should give room to proceed, cautiously, when they start lowering rates. expectation is june. at 6:00 p.m. london time u.s. treasury will sell 58 billion dollars of three-year notes, so that auction. then later, numbers for airbus and boeing deliveries. boeing has been in the spotlight for the wrong reasons, so deliveries have been slipping further behind airbus. interesting to see the gap. get a roundup of stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. the lead on the bullard comments on fed cuts, still three says james, but stories on blackstone and a deal to buy out the beauty skincare brand. they have ubs to attain full ownership of its china platform by swapping its holding in credit suisse with the beijing government investment. you can get those stories by going to dayb on your terminal. coming up, israeli officials signal optimism on cease fire talks, ministers threaten to bri

stirling in the ecb were _ mean for stirling? stirling in the ecb were saying - mean for stirling?g? stirling in j the ecb were saying that the bank of england and the ecb are probably likely to cut sooner than the us, a lot of that is down to our weak economy and our week inflation numbers. we could see a bit of weakness in those currencies against the us dollar, if you think you can put your money into us dollars and get a slightly higher interest rates, that will be whether pressures are. remember that the reason we are seeing these higher than expected inflation numbers in the us is also that the economy is strong and it will attract investors. in terms of the general health of the economy in the eurozone, what are they doing right? what what are they doing right? what are they doing — what are they doing right? what are they doing right? _ what are they doing right? what are they doing right? i - what are they doing right? wiat are they doing right? i think they... i think it is easier to see what the us is doing right in terms of it has benefited from lower energy costs, now

is the ecb and fed watching that? >> absolutely. they are watching it.hey are worried about inflation being sticky and it is not just commodity prices. it is commodities and shipping disruption. on the services side, the worry is wage inflation. for the u.s., they heare worrie about the trend growth. it has come down, but it has gotten sticky at 5%. the u.s. is worried on the demand side. for europe, it is less of a worry with the demand side because the ecb squeezed the economy more. i think they would be worried from the supply side because that is not something they have an impact on. >> skylar, so many noted the lack of volatility in the forex market. they depend on those moving and shifting between the regions. when do you think the boe will start moving considering the hawks have been falling out of the sky. >> the last meeting we got from the bank of england is a move to the dovish side. you no longer have members voting for a hike. that move will shift. you have seen the inflation come down dramatically. a year ago, no market participant was look

these are your headlines ecb policymakers line up behind a june rate cut, but there is still some concerns>> it is good inflation is coming down. this is what we like to achieve when we hike interest rates. talking about the june meeting, i think the probability is increasing of a rate cut in june there are some caveats. >>> abb raises full-year outlook after topping the full-year profit forecast. >> we see china down 90% it looks worse than what it is i think the sentiment among our operation is that china is stabilizing and even seeing a positive trend. >>> shares of plaisware surge on the paris debut. we will speak to the ceo pierre demonsant at 15:00 cet. >>> and tsmc beats on the net profit for the quarter as they get a lift as the world's largest chipmaker. >>> good morning welcome to "street signs." let's start the show with the equity space the stoxx 600 is up .30% this is basically a little bit of an improvement compared to what we saw yesterday with the benchmark making marginal gains at the end of wednesday's session. we started the week talking about the narratives in the marke

we are hearing from the ecb member is very much confirming the sentiment that we got from the ecb athe last meeting. if the data moves in the right direction, they feel comfortable they are in a position to cut rates. worth keeping that in mind thch because they are getting information stateside and they will get comment with the rate policy. >> you cover that meeting closely here on cnbc they seem to be telegraphing that june being closely. they will cut sooner than the fed. >> absolutely. that retail sales figure you were mentioning is pushed back the further expectation from the fed. >> the question is what will jay powell say today >> exactly >>> coming up, the economist and credit analyst at pimco. we will talk about what is going on in the bond market, but the u.s. economy nicolai, good to see you. >> good morning. >> we will jump into this. the inflation forecast for the u.s. stands at 2.5% to 3%. that is well above the fed target you said the fed will normalize this year. we hear every fed official coming out with this, that and the third. what does that mean in this situatio

. >>> top ecb policymakers converge on june telling cnbc at imf meetings it would take a lot to derailhose amoves. >> we are now confident enough >> we really need bad news to cut. >> i'm focused on june. >>> worth it l'oreal trading near the top of the stoxx 600 after beating first quarter expectations >>> and netflix slips in extended trade despite beating on the top and bottom line as the streamer said it will stop reporting subscriber numbers next year. >>> we start the show with the developing story israel carried out a limited strike against riran overnight iranian state tv reported three drones shot down in the sky. so far, no damage is being reported in isfahan. our dan murphy is in dubai with this story >> reporter: frank, good morning. the information is fluid this situation will not mark the start of the upcycle or a wider re regional conflict. we heard there is no damage to the iran nuclear facilities as well as the iran oil structures are not targeted there have been no reports of major damage or critically any casualties rather, this israeli strike is out out outside isfa

it would need a lot for people to think that the ecb will not happen in june. but who comes next and how much of a time cap is there between them and a cut from the bank of england or the reserve? that's what traders are trying to gauge. for now, they are giving benefit of the doubt that the ecb won't be too far ahead of the others, but if we see that gap get wider, if the fed goes to the fourth quarter, it could be vulnerable for the euro. it would be the currency most at risk within the g10 group. tom: mliv strategist mark cranfield bringing analysis on a major we for these markets, and of the implications for the euro as we look ahead to that inflation print out of the u.s. the week ahead, earnings front and center, as mark was outlining, u.s. and european earnings. against, 40% of the s&p reporting, about half of the magnificent seven. the likes of the lloyds banking group and heineken, which has led global footprint. deutsche bank, barclays, big week for european letter endures -- lenders. and remy cointreau, the french luxury drinks maker. we will be thin

if the ecb does cut more than expected, the decoupling of the ecb and the fed's rate path could meaneaker euro, bank of america has already come out to say the week and parity could come out. is 4.5% the next big test for bond traders looking for opportunity? >> they don't get any rest here. 4.5% after ember that markets love big, bold numbers. it's only looks that way. around 4.4% currently. if we look at the ymca on the terminal, bond yields are inspected at the terminal under 3.9% by year end as the fed cuts rates. if that is the case, investors may be looking at these levels as a good time to get in but 4.5 is certainly a big number to watch out for. >> we thank you for that look ahead to a busy week on the macro front. jesting understory of central banks, on friday, it is a big day right here in the u.k.. we would get the conclusion to ben bernanke. this would inspect the report on boe forecasting. we had to wait a while for it. but it is really likely to be an interesting one. the governor of the bank of england has already it did it will require retiring the boe charts. the ec

that may affect the ecb as well.— the year. that may affect the ecb as well. as well. certainly markets in the last few _ ecb as well. certainly markets in the last few days _ ecb as well. certainly markets in the last few days have - ecb as well. certainly markets in the last few days have been j in the last few days have been pricing in a delayed rate cut, particularly in the us and uk. in the uk for example, the site of the year, the marketer pricing at about five bread cuts for the year. now it is going to want full record perhaps 30% chance of a second one by the end of the year. the ecb however does appear to be on a diversion pad. set to decrease rate as early asjune because demand and inflation is simply not as strong as it is in the us and supply—side inflation also not as high as it is in the uk. they appear to be on a diversion path to the bank of england and as well as the physical therapist only to see evidence of disinformation continuing before rate cuts can be put back on the table. they were discussing liz truss return to the public. with her

does the ecb pay attention in the uk? >> if every central bank turns hawkish, the ecb would listen to that. on the margin, i think to the extent that the european central banks are shifting to cutting, i don't think there is any marginal effect in any way. >> looking at the dynamics are the ecb and fed, a lot of conversation if we see parity in the schexchange rate. when you compare the comments, it sounds more hawkish with the fed policymakers. >> it is a fundamental battle with divergence. the u.s. has applied a stimulus set up for decades. they continue to do so. the inflation reduction act. chips act. invest in growth. consumers are still experiencing the positive effects from the past stimulus. european economy has been hit by slower china and hit by higher rates to investment. they are diffiverging. the market has not been pricing so far. it has just started to price it. it hasn't fully priced in the last few weeks. >> it just feels like at this stage they have to diverge. the question for the ecb is how long can th

it was a concern previously whether or not the ecb would move ahead of the fed.th on inflation in the u.s. and that suggests the fed could be patient. then looking at the data in the eurozone and signals from the members of the committee with the ecb suggesting at least june or not sooner. it is clear you need support for growth in the eurozone. a rate cut would help. we are encouraged that the ecb seems to understand the situation and will react to it. lower interest rates should support the economy. >> we will see the message next week. it is coming up quickly. thank you for your time. that was daniel morris from bnp. >>> well, coming up on the show, we have plenty more coverage out of the amborsetti forum. we will get a gauge on italy and what investment looks like and how people are feeling about the prospects over the next 12 months. we will talk to the ceo of the house. we will do that when we come back here on "street signs." what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is

that happened after the ecb decision yesterday. no surprises in tefrrms of the decisions.t does look increasing like like they are accepting the fact they will diverge from the fed and will cut in june. the euro/dollar is 107. dollar/yen weakened. 152 yesterday. now it has pushed up to above 153. do you hear that? nothing. crickets. nothing from the boj. no intervention yet. let's look at the european yields. we have yields slightly sitting on the back foot. gilt at 4.14% over in the bund with 2.38%. we saw an interesting and mixed picture as far as yields go in u.s. trade. a lot calmer than the previous session with the cpi print on the hot side. ppi was a little more comforting. we saw last night that the t two-year yield fell. we will keep on watching what happens with yields. it is all very exciting with a lot of change this week. frank. >>> mandy, touurning to the uk economy. a modest 0.1% increase from the month before driven by the services sector. the bank of england is publishing the review by former fed chairman ben bernancke today. we have taken a look at what i

we talked about the rates environment as well as i asked the ceo if he was concerned with the ecb andhe fed. >> if you look at the ecb versus the fed, you are talking to the cfo of the european bank let me give you the view of what we see in europe there are diverging inflation issues in the eurozone and in the u.s. for us, we see and hear the ecb should deploy the first rate cut somewhere over the summer and it will be easing what we see is the logic with the ecb seeing inflation going down that will trigger them to bring down the rates that will lead to confidence and growth we could get into the spiral that it would be triggering. for us, that is what we are observing. >> that was the cfo of bnp we see positive reaction on the back of the board this morning with shares up 15% in of last 12 months >> charlotte, thank you. >>> turning to barclays, it posted a profit of 2.28 billion pounds in the first quarter. down 12% year on year. in line with expectations according to the consensus the bank would return 10 billion pounds to shareholders through 2026 through buybacks and dividends.

when do you think the ecb will get the party going?> we are looking at june, really, as the most realistic time the rate cuts kick in. in the meantime, they are data dependent and signs of inflation are coming down now. that should open the window for the rate cuts. the headline inflation numbers will give the ecb not just comfort that current inflation is down, but reduced wage negotiations which means workers have less grounds to necessity dp necessi negotiate higher pay. we have seen those flash numbers for march. the service sector cost in price indices coming down as well. the ecb is watching these carefully. the service sector is the main concern. that added to the case for rates to start coming down in june. >> of course, june is the month that a lot of market watchers are focused on for a lift for fed cuts. increasingly with fed members pushing back against the june t timetable, is the ecb able to move on that fed cut? >> it is quite unusual territory. i think with the fed clearly indicating that rates are going to fall in the

the ecb, cutting rates in june.d consumer discretion will be the best performers, they wrote. shares of boeing and southwest airlines lower. the faa is investigating another in-flight incident. this time, it was an engine cover that fell off and struck the wing of a boeing 737 taking off from the denver airport. the plane was towed to the gate. boeing is dealing with regulatory scrutiny after a door blowout on an alaska airlines flight earlier this year. the south carolina gamecocks are national champions, beating iowa, 87-70 five. this is their third national title in seven seasons. they are the 10th team in history to complete an undefeated season. caitlin clark ended her career with 3951 points and leaves as the all-time leading scorer in men's and women's college pascual. jonathan: what a phenomenal athlete, what she has done for sports, women's sports, has been absolutely incredible over the last few weeks. lisa: all the jokes about going to a bar to watch women's nba and this question of whether college brass

and the ecb will be delayed.e are data dependent, so our data came down in march. we have had a little bit of data in april. but it's on that basis that we have to make our decisions, and not on the basis of any central bank in the world, be it the fed, which is the largest and with the largest economy measure of gdp. we cannot make decision on that basis, hence, we are not fed dependent. but what i will say, the evolution of inflation, the evolution of monetary policy in any of the large economies that actually have a bearing on the global activity in the world, of course, we take into account, and we take that into account in our own measurements and in our own models. it does find it ways in how we forecast. as i said, one of the three key criterias are inflation outlook and the other two, but inflation outlook, and that, of course, receives and is informed by multiple data, including what happens in other countries. >> and also currencies. i wonder how closely you're following -- >> central bankers don't talk

do you feel that is something that will possibly delay the ecb cut and fed cut further? >> i think it's a good factor to delay both ecb and the fed desires to cut rates i don't think it is the only factor it is a convenient one that will make folks understand what they're up to. there are other driving factors. in the u.s., likely housing and other inflationary measures beyond energy prices to force that cut to be held off until well into the year i wasn't in this camp three weeks ago, but maybe no cut at all this year, assuming they can find a way to stick the landing with their narrative >> alex morris, thank you very much >> thanks, frank >>> ahead on "worldwide exchange," a big morning for big tech as netflix shares take a hit despite the first quarter stock pop. >>> and a look at europe and one-on-one withthe eu commissioner margrethe vestager. that's when "worldwide exchange" returns. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? -anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! -back into play and... aw no, it's in the water. wait a minute... -alligator. are you kidding me? you got t

especially the ecb forecast in terms of the inflation path.or now, it looks like the inflation in europe is still on the inflation trend. so they have room to maybe start cutting rates. in our base case is starting from june, three cups this year. i think even for the u.s., there may be some change in plan. for europe, especially in terms of the european economies, we've been seeing a turnaround in the economic momentum. especially for the inflation continuing that will give them room to start cutting rates from june. paul: one of the questions we are asking a lot of guests today is what do you hear the -- see the euro hitting next? grace: yeah. i think it also depends. the dollar. obviously, we've been seeing some strength in the dollar and then the euro could be weakening. also, if the ecb has a more dovish tone, that could actually drive the euro slightly weaker. paul: all right. thank you so much for joining us. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what

and we have ecb moving into cut rates in the summer. from the perspective of the boj, the right time to intervene is probably later second quarter when the ecb makes the move. paul: just in your view, is intervention really worth it? there is always a risk you just give traders a more attractive selling price. jung: true but we also have to be cautious about what other big players are doing. so if you go out with a lot of fire on your back will pose a lot of risk. obviously the boj does not want to embarrass itself. they will act very consciously and i am prettier sure they are looking for the right moment to intervene. paul: all right. jung in yun, thank you so much for joining us today with your insights on both central banks and also some of those tech names. on that note, let's recap the lines we have been getting out of sk hynix. the operating profit come at 2.8 trillion yuan. the expectation was for 1.8 trillion yuan. sk hynix believes it has entered a phase of a clear rebound. the overall memory market to be on a steady growth pa

it will stay as we build up to expectations of the ecb cutting in june.any of that data change that view. let's bring in zoe for the details in the take away. what do take away from this gdp print at a friends, slightly better-than-expected. >> economists were expecting 0.1%. moreover, if you dig into the data, the consumer spending numbers accelerated. overall, good news. just as a reminder, the euro area was in a shallow recession and the second half of last year. all the data and brands are good news that the euro area will have exited that recession grown in the first quarter. tom: what do we expect for the prado europe -- broader euro areas? >> the euro area we expect 0.1. before that we get that out of spain, italy, and germany. germany is the one we watched closely. germany had a contraction in the fourth quarter. initially we thought they also would be contracting. they changed and said it would be slight growth in economists are expecting that slight growth. the economy with the stronger growth will be spain. we get that data in just over an hour

many people expect the ecb will cut rates injune. now, the timing of the first rate cut here in the united states this cycle has become a subject of much debate from main street to wall street to the campaign trail. the fed had previously signalled it intended to cut rates several times this year from a 23—year high of 5.5%. us stocks fell after mr powell spoke. tensions in the middle east have also been weighing on markets, the conflict in the region has been cited as a risk to recovery for the global economy by the international monetary fund. in its annual report, the imf said growth would remain steady because propped up because of emerging economies like india but high inflation and weak demand in china and europe are major challenges. the bbc�*s economics editor has more from washington, dc. we have got new numbers from the imf, theirforecast for the world economy, and it shares a world economy that is more resilience and mainly driven by what is happening here in the us and in some emerging economies, such as india. there is a

ecb is very likely to cut rates in june and beyond this will help the bond market as well.ou have from the bond market perspective, a goldilocks situation where growth is strong and inflation going down with the ecb about to step in with rate cuts. it is a very attractive setup for the bond market against the u.s. >> thank you for joining us. >>> coming up on the show, volatile trade in the yen this morning. we will look at what's behind those moves coming up right after this break shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free we put our heart into celebrating moms. we are local farmers, bakers, florists and makers who grow and create with a passion. 1-800 flowers. for mom, with love. >>> welcome back to "street signs. i'm frank holland. these are your headlines philips reaches a settlement over the u.s. ventilator recall paying out $1.1 billion. >> we got court a

the governing council decided today to keep the three key ecb interest rates unchanged.ncoming information has broadly confirmed our previous assessment of the medium—term inflation outlook. inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation. most measures of underlying inflation are easing. wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs, in their profits. that was christine lagarde. tomasz wieladek is chief european economist at asset management firm t rowe price. we spoke before this announcement and no great surprise, what we are looking at closely as the detail, the comments, the forecast about what may happen next. what do you read into this?— read into this? well, i think today the ave read into this? well, i think today they gave a _ read into this? well, i think today they gave a little _ read into this? well, i think today they gave a little bit _ read into this? well, i think today they gave a little bit of _ read into this? well, i think today they gave a little bit of what - read into th

the ecb's major restructure to women's cricket — eight counties will host professional women's teamshe first round of the world snooker championship is drawn, does the crucible have a future as host of the event? the as host of the event? sport needs to grow and evoi so the sport needs to grow and evolve, so unless the crucible can hold more people, it is inevitable that it moves. welcome to the programme. let's start with the big news from the last couple of hours, that fa cup replays will bescrapped from next season. from the first round proper onwards, all ties will be decided in one leg, as part of an agreement between the football association and the premier league. joining me now for more on this story is our correspondent laura scott. what more can you tell us? it is not exactly a huge shock, this is a long anticipated change to the fa cup structure, but it is nonetheless controversial. it depends who you ask how they will view this change. this is part of a six—year deal that the fa have signed with the premier league, the fa claim it will strengthen the competition. the prem

it precedes the ecb minutes at 12 p.m. u.k. time, you have got a june cut looking like a done deal, therefore the focus turning to how many cuts will follow this year. an hour after, we will get u.s. initial jobless claims. we will watch out for how many people were laid off as a result of the baltimore bridge collapse, of course. that will tee us up for the main data event of the week, the u.s. jobs report from march that comes out tomorrow. we will get fedspeak from master, bargain, harker and goolsby. what a mouth full. whatever happened to less is more. you can get a roundup of the stories to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find it by going to dayb . coming up, we will go to the middle east. pressure on netanyahu is mounting. a prominent member of israel's war cabinet says national elections should happen as soon as september, not in 2026. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." to israel. a permanent member of the war cabinet says national el

policy to determine how far the ecb can go on its own?xt but at the same time we are not the 13 federal district we have our own monetary policy, our own set of economic outlook, inflation outlook, and as christine already alluded to, some of the fundamental drivers of inflation have developed quite differently in the u.s. than in the euro area, so we have our own monetary policy to do. that monetary policy i think is testimony to the fact that we are increasingly confident with a disinflation process that we have been seeing and that we expect to continue. we expect it to become a little bit more bumpy down the road because of all kinds of technical factor that i wouldn't want to tire you with we are confident that the overall picture is one of continued disinflation. lisa: you mentioned bumps. this is something we hear a lot. what kind of bonds with you have to see to not cut rates in june. >> bumps that would lead me to fundamentally change my assessment of the ongoing disinflation process. i think the protections that we have are pret

the ecb rate path ahead and earnings season is underway.ss giant raising its forecast as blockbuster treatments outperform. european futures after reprieve is given to those who had their hands burned. the s&p closed higher. futures looking flat but a decent session in europe. ftse futures after a fresh record. we keep our eye across the treasury curve, back below 5%. the yen is in focus. gold dropped 2.7%. brent has a gain, $87 a barrel. avril hong has a take on the yen. upside for chinese tech companies. what else is happening? avril: that is the focus for asian stock benchmark. hang seng is leading the charge, but elsewhere it is tepid, csi 300 is sinking. improved sentiment seems to be coming through from the rare upgraded and it seems to be the indication that despite worries, there is divergence. despite the tick up and recovery, it is failing to recoup declines. kospi flat, a lot will depend on tech earnings and we are seeing tech indices benefiting. let's take a closer look at ubs, msci china has been recovering since the january lo

that matters because when you compare the ecb with the fed, it seems that we are looking at differentduring the press conference kristen leguard got a lot of questions about this difference in speed between the ecb and the fed. ultimately, though, worth keeping in mind if the ecb moves a lot faster compared to the fed when it comes to reducing rates, that could put pressure on the currencies. we could see a lower euro and a stronger dollar. and of course that's also important for both central banks, really, as they assess the outlook for monetary policy. but just a final point to say that kristen leguard made it very clear that for the ecb what matters is european data. and if they're ready to move to cut those rates, they will regardless of what the fed is doing. >> all right, we will stay on that in the weeks ahead. cnbc's silvia amaro live from london, thank you. have a good weekend. >>> still ahead here, the justice department is trying to crack down on the so-called gun show loophole. we'll explain what it means for firearms dealers when "way too early" returns. i'm not an actor.

that was driven by the ecb taking liquidity out of the system.itulate if the ecb indicate they would not cut this year. charles: doug, talk about stocks you like. you like meta and alphabet. a lot of folks talk about that i would like to talk about taiwan semi which is in the news big time. crt is name i played with my subscribers but i don't think a lot of people know it. >> taiwan semi, there was great news for them. $11 billion from the chips act to help build a fab in arizona. the story with taiwan semi they are the leader. >> amazes me. i've been in taiwan semi, i've been in couple years. it was did. no one wanted the stock a year ago. all of sudden everyone wants it. it sparked after chatgpt, that was fading a little bit, this was the second spark for all these semi. >> it was in every semimaker, nvidia, amd, using advanced chips. they have to use taiwan semi. there is no other maker in the market that can do what they do. you mentioned very tiff. they make basically liquid cooling solutions for data centers. the chips consume a lot of elec

i do also agree the ecb will move before the fed in cutting rates. i think the bank of england will do the same. interestingly, not just what it does for the fixed income market, but what it potentially does for inflation in the uk because if rates are higher in the u.s., that means rates are more attractive in the u.s. you could get the secondary imported inflation act because of the impact on the currencies. credi >> we mentioned we're in the middle of earnings season here in the u.s. and in europe. automakers under pressure after the reports. what are your expectations? we see the ftse 100 hitting new highs every day. 3% or 4% in the u.s. indices as well. >> the ftse 100 hit the all-time high, but it has taken a long time. the last year, we have seen difficult months for the s&p 500, but the last 12 months, we had several all-time highs. japan at an all-time high after four decades. the ftse 100 is stronger on. we feel earnings are patchy than in the u.s. we have seen great results from financials. we expect it to be positive. we are mindful infla

we have had the bank of korea and taiwan raise interest rates, ecb standing pat. rba looks like there's the possibility of a rate hike. the inflation dynamics across the globe are very, very different. i think central banks will obviously have differing policy moving forward. i think global growth is still slowing to some extent. not as much as anticipated at the start of the year, but, yeah, i think central banks will be driven by their own country dynamics rather than what the are doing at this point. haslinda: hang tight. i'm going to bring in my colleague who joins me in singapore. we talk about how the be ok stood pat. mes stood pat. pretty expected given that everybody is waiting on the fed. >> that's right, especially after u.s. inflation came out much stronger than expected, and the rate pricing for the fed has also pulled back. i don't think any central bank in asia would go out there and say they are ready to cut interest rates when inflation uncertainty still remains the buzz word. when i was in singapore in january and i met with a bunch of investors,

it's already quite a significant shift in tone from the ecb in just two or three months.oo late in the great scheme of things but i don't think moving forward by one meeting will make a lot of difference. lisa: how much of a cycle will this be? people are questioning whether the fed could cut rates once and be done for the rest of this year. for the ecb, do they care if they are cutting more aggressively than the federal reserve? >> actually, christine lagarde was asked about this and her answer was ambiguous. they will do whatever is needed considering conditions in the euro zone. the only thing which would make them think twice about decoupling from the fed would be if we hadn't issue with interest rates. they could argue at this point in time that even if cutting faster than the fed could trigger a further depreciation of the euro, it would be ok for inflation. the root source of the resilience in prices we have in europe now is not on the upside. it's domestic. the price of manufactured goods which are massively important continues to go in the right direction. we cou

when it comes to ecb, not looking at confirmation of the pivot.t the fed does, conditions have been ripe for easing, but there was an inflation battle. got a market open to look at. haidi: cpi will be major, but let's get into the start of trading, stocks coming online. where we are sitting for the nikkei 225 and the positivity and a second consecutive week of weakness, not the case when it comes to the unstoppable equity rally.

it's really the ecb. president lagarde has made it extremely clear, barring disaster like and energy price spike they will cut in june and most u.s. investors ignore the global bond market but you should not do that and why that's also bullish, when she cuts before the fed, which has never happened before, the euro is likely to be very, under pressure. could hit parity. then that sets the stage for the fed to cut because that is very deflationary. commodities are priced in dollars. so nobody is focusing on the ecb and europe, which is fine for equities but not good for bonds. >> okay that is absolutely a fascinating side window look at this. that's why we bring people like jay on, you guys. you need to hear that kind of thing. it makes sense. the dollar is right now stronger against all major currencies. the euro a buck six it takes. it is going lower and lower. let's talk about what investments you would make if the s&p is indeed going to hit 57 plus? >> anything interest sensitive. even today you saw wi

many people expect the ecb will cut rates injune.iming of the first red cut in the united states this cycle has become a subject of much debate. from main street to wall street to the campaign trail. if that had previously signalled it intended to collaborate several times this year from a 23 year collaborate several times this yearfrom a 23 year high of 5.5%. us stocks fell after mr powell spoke. let's speak to will walker—arnott, director of private clients at charles stanley. good morning to you. what do you make ofjerome powell's latest comments, as michele explained, it did hit financial markets with wall street seeing another day of the clients. it seems a long way from the end of 2023 when we were actually talking about the potential for a hard landing or recession. now we move on and the us economy remains in strong health. earlierthis economy remains in strong health. earlier this week with strong retail numbers which knocks expectations out of the park. we are seeing strong employment number. and yesterday was the imf upgra

now the central bank convergence we may be experiencing between the fed and ecb and the ecb telegraphing the idea of a cut coming is in his june, when you were taking that into consideration now from what you were hearing from williams and the fed pushing back expectations of rate cuts, it shows what a turnaround we have seen and how difficult it is been to calculate the fed trajectory through the rest of 2024. tom: pivoting on the pivot. jill with the analysis, thank. here is what is else on your agenda. a gauge on the health of the u.k. consumer. we have been hearing about the bank of england governor and releasing inflation remains us of a challenge. on the earnings front, procter & gamble and american express, a touch on the u.s. consumer that remains relatively strong according to recent data, and today we get continuation of the imf and world bank meetings as well in the u.s. we will be listening out for a new sound as they address economic inflationary and central-bank challenges. almost one billion people in india begin dividing today in the world's largest ever general election.

haslinda: some say the ecb is likely to cut ahead of the fed. >> we think the ecb will be a bit cautious, they will want to see more evidence that inflation europe is slowing down. we expect cuts from june and not from next week meeting. haslinda: from the sound of it, everything is waiting on the fed. they have been under pressure, the likes of the yuan engine. are they likely to be under a lot of pressure? >> most currencies will be on the back foot because dollar interest rates are high. they will be waiting for the fed just like the rest of us and the fed will be waiting for u.s. inflation numbers. once those numbers moderate, policymakers and asia will be able to follow the fed and cutting rates, but not before then. haslinda: some say perhaps devaluation of the yuan is the way to go is a reflection of how weak the economy really is. what is the fair value for the yuan right now? >> the pboc is caught between a rock and a hard place. they don't want the currency to slide. it does look undervalued. fair value is difficult to work out. but i would say beyond seven, if the fed does cut

i know you will cover the big ecb decision later today.usy day for you. >>> let's turn attention to asia. a volatile session there. jp ong is standing by in singapore. jp. >> reporter: good morning, frank. a lot of markets in asia closing in the red. the tone was set on wall street with the hotter than expected cpi print which has cast doubt if rates will stay higher for longer. we saw yields rising here in the fixed income space in asia. china had concerns with deflation pressure. this hinting at a slowdown in the second largest economy. the shanghai composite rallying after opening up deeply in the red. the nikkei 225 is worth looking at with the volatility vanderbcurrency with the japan yen. the finance minister of japan coming in and saying they are prepared to intervene if we see the pullback on equities. it kept the yen in the red in today's session. i want to end with one bright note. it is not much to write home about, but the kospi managed to close in the glreen. the opposition party won a victory which might cast doubts on how we

the ecb is cutting interest rates in june. maybe not dramatically ahead of -- much more than in the u.s.. that's a combination that gives you real money in stocks. jonathan: can you point to the examples in the last 10 years? ben: there are some of them. europe has always been cheap. deserves to be cheap. apart from the ftse valuations today, they are 20%, 20 percentage points cheaper than the 10 year average. i would make a version of that argument at any point. it's the catalyst. the ecb is going to cut. it has more profit margins and is more sensitive to these catalysts. jonathan: great to catch up, buddy. let's talk about things international for a moment. people talking about intervention, 100 5560. lisa: the obvious intervention is a rate hike. there's a pot -- policy monetary perspective. inconceivable for them to do that, but i'm curious to know why. jonathan: snapback from the u.s. administration, isn't this what you would say to the japanese? annmarie: they would say you have the tools you can use yourself to get the