the effects of ecb easing is another one. ecb to cut rates further than they think they will. another one is the potential truth of whatever form in the ukraine with secret construction efforts, reconstruction efforts. there are reasons to be more constructive about 2026 but i think all of those factors will take time to shape out and so 2025 will be a tough lift. annmarie: there is still -- dani: there is still an irony of the ecb if they continue to cut because inflation is not at target and it presents an argument of moral hazard that politicians are acting recklessly because they know they have an ecb at their back. do you put any credence to that? soren: i would say to the inflation, we are now expecting inflation. the ecb will be a bit below that next year and essentially staying at target with risks to inflation coming lower. core inflation is still running above target but the central bank faced with such a weak growth outlook should be more forward-looking. we have heard from several speakers, including christine lag

the fact that ecb, if ecb is credible, it should stabilize in the expectation with the ecb not forcedo use it. >> we will see what happened if the ecb reaches that point. senior economist at asset management. >>> the president-elect donald trump will visit paris this weekend for the reopening of the notre dame cathedral which has been restored following a devastating fire five years ago. this will be trump's first overseas trip since winning the second term in the white house. >>> coming up on the show, we will cross over to the resourcing mining conference where we will be joined by the chairman of equinox gold. that conversation is coming up after this break. at betmgm, everyone gets a welcome offer. so whether you're courtside trying to hit the over... or up here trying to hit the under. whew! or, hitting that win with your crew. ohhh! yes, see defense! or way up here with a same game parlay. yaw! betmgm's got your back. get your welcome offer. and play with the sportsbook born in vegas. all these seats. really? get up to a $1500 new customer offer in bonus bets when you sign up no

let's get to what's happened with the ecb. big day for the european central bank on its final policy meeting of the year today. what -- it was expected to deliver its fourth rate cut of 2024. traders will be looking for clues on the path ahead. lizzie joins us from frankfurt for preview. is there case for this ecb to go big today? not 25 but 50, given the economic and political challenges of the euro zone? >> off the back of that u.s. cpi print, the changes on fed easing, you've seen a shift in that ecb easing. there have been added to off the bat by the end of 20.5. in terms of today, the latvian central banker says 50 is on the table because just think about as you allude to all the developments that have been since last meeting in slovenia, you've got the collapse governments of france and germany, you could see less fiscal tightening and therefore less help for the ecb in the mission of fighting inflation. i doubt christine lagarde will want to wade into the politics when we get to the press conference. but then you've got

the ecb doesn't do surprises. think the gradual cuts that will continue is the way for them to go. since they meet eight times a year, they could speed up the cut. they could cut at every meeting if they wanted to or every other meeting. i expect 25-basis points today. >> you say they don't usually deliver surprises. sometimes the market adds a little bit of pressure on what the central bank could do. we actually saw the expectations of the potential for a 50-basis point cut increasing around october time. what i would like to understand here is when you think about next year, when you think about 2025, are we going to see the ecb cutting rates significantly as a result of the growth picture we have across the bloc? >> it depends very much on growth and that in terms depends on the policies pursued by the new trump administration in the u.s. suppose we see trade barriers and threaten to slow the european economy further, then i can well imagine the ecb will decide to cut interest rates a little bit more rapidly or

ecb expects to cut rates at oath next two meetings. as christine lagarde says euros -- europe's growth is losing momentum. and the french president is due in new prime minister in the next few hours as he looks to avoid another government collapse. tom: happy friday. mixed u.s. data muddying the waters. you saw some pressure towards the end of the trading day with the s&p up by .5%. u.s. jobless claims came in higher than expected and inflation in terms of producer prices also ticking up. european futures pointing lower by .3%. the ecb cutting rates as expected, 25 basis points and expected to cut again in january and possibly march as well. ftse 100 futures lower by .3%. s&p futures up .1%. and there is positivity around broadcom earnings reminding us that strength is there. broadcom beating on earnings and showing the upside in terms of revenue from ai. let's flip the board and lacrosse asset. investors around the ecb and fed expectations -- the expectation is that the fed will go again. currently, yields of 431 on the 10 year. euro-

the ecb has a lot to consider.iggest economies in the bloc are both grappling with political instability and tough economic challenges. add to that the impact the trump presidency will have when he takes office in the new year. interest rates are expected to be cut today again today by the ecb but what guidance will president christine lagarde give? wei li is global chief investment strategist at blackrock. good morning to you. so, first of all, do you agree with the majority that we will see a rate cut in the eurozone today? that's right. we are expecting 25 basis points of rate cut from the current 3.25% level because the ecb actually hiked more than even the fed, so there is more room for the ecb to cut rates and also in the context of weaker growth, we are expecting the fresh macroprojections to reflect that as well.— macroprojections to reflect that as well. but given what's auoin on that as well. but given what's going on in — that as well. but given what's going on in germany - that as well. but given what's

we got the ecb meeting yesterday.he ecb cutting rates by 25-basis points, but investors at this stage asking the question what is going to happen in early 2025 and how much of a problem is the growth outlook because we did see the central bank ading the forecast for the next three years. i want to take you to the different bourses across the european continent this morning. looking at the different bourses, however, we have pockets of green across all of them, but however, when you look at the numbers, we are looking at marginal moves at this stage. indeed, highlighting this cautious approach at the friday trade on top of the monetary policy and let's not forget the news out of china this morning. investors were wondering whether we will get a little bit more detail on the fiscal stimulus and they did not obtain that. a little bit of disappointment with the lack of stimulus from china is also translating into some of the moves we are seeing in europe. however, it is friday and i want to show you the eek to date perfor

i find the ecb tone too hawkish.f you think of how central banks are reacting to macroeconomics conditions. the source of the inflation the last two years was negative supply shocks. now i look at the politics in germany and france and weak pmi. you have demand problems now. if you have inflation that is sticky, you doubt it will be sticky six months from now. you could front load rate cuts. >> what are you pricing in? you think the argument is 50. where do you think we will be? >> i think we are down over the next six months with the hope they pull up a bit and go 50 basis points in the next meeting. that would be the next signal to consumers and markets. >> let's look at france. you are highlighting every day we are talking about what's going on in france at this stage. how are you looking at the downgrade from moody's ? will they come to the deal to correct the finances? >> i think in a haphazard way they will come up with a deal to get to a sustainable path. the question is what political agreements need to be ma

how likely is it that the ecb may tap that?> probably some of them would quite like to have a chance to use it, but it is certainly not able to use for france. it is intended to be used for downturns of contagion which is unwarranted. that is where they could come in and help those countries if it is being caused by something in france. france's problems are self-inflicted. >> so they are worried about contagion and less about a specific mechanism within france. really appreciate your time, thank you so much. coming up, we are going to turn back to the u. be joined for a r look at u.s. retail spending this holiday season. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. time now for the stock of the hour and we will look at gap. shares are getting a lift after jp morgan updated the gap to overweight from neutral following a meeting with the gap ceo and cfo. and of course it is a crucial few weeks for retailers for the holiday season underway in the u.s. keyword being a few because of the late arrival thanksgiving this

>> i think the ecb will not step in. the ecb has nothing to do with political affairs of national countries, of european countries. however, we have to be reminded of something extremely important . that is that the ecb is not-- add new instruments to deal with stress on the market in europe. keep an eye that the instrument can clearly be seen as a kind of nuclear weapon to address any stress on the market. typically because the european central bank can combine any bull market in europe without any limits. of course, the conditions are not together now for the tbi being deployed, but actually, the cost of the crisis in europe is much more elevated than finding a military solution and using what we have. so, ecb, the solution of course, european coalition is not the right institution to mobilize to address the situation. >> yeah, i hear what you are saying in regards to the ecb, this is a political matter, a domestic issue, but if this translates into the bull market, the ecb will be under pressure to actually react here

i guess just moves swiftly and get the ecb approved. at the end of the day, a business friendly government, at the top of the chancellory, will most likely find a compromise to actually think this is actually a good solution. i guess what you need to do, is to say that we'll have security for the majority, and he will not take business away. i think that's the narrative. he will most likely already spread among the parties who might be forming the next government. of course, the race is wide open for the next election. the city will currently have some weakness. it's not enough for the cdu and fdp to form the government, at least according to current polls. it most likely will look like a grand coalition, and that is then of course a bit more tricky for his takeover move. seems to be willing to stay on as well. when i spoke to him a couple weeks ago, at a conference here in frankfort, he said it's all about the procedure. they didn't like the procedure and the hostility of the move from mullan. and the fact there is a combination of the

the ecb is set to cut rates. provide more tailwinds for the european economy, especially given the fact that the euro is sensitive to rates. this should provide more support for the eurozone than other regions. tom: this is the case for europe which is a little counterintuitive, given what we are seeing in terms of the politics. you lay out the rationale for why you should see further gains for european stocks. the relative value of european stocks is a factor along with the ecb. talk to us about germany. there's an election coming up in february. what is the thinking around an opportunity linked to the german election? why could that be a catalyst? >> there's a vacuum in terms of political leadership in europe. if you get the results of the election, center-right, where they have more deregulation and they don't increase taxes, could release a bit on the tax -- on the debt. more fiscal spending. that could be positive and signal strong positive change in the euro zone. that could lead to an outperformance and a

the market is discounting that the ecb will cut by another 1% in 2025.ably markets are already discounting that because when you look at ten year german government bond yields, they are a little over 2% but the overall theme in europe is weak growth, as highlighted, lots of risk to that outlook. whether it be politics in europe or tariffs from america. but with interest rates coming down to a low level with loan deals following.— level with loan deals followinu. :, following. what is your assessment _ following. what is your assessment of - following. what is your assessment of the - following. what is your . assessment of the greater following. what is your - assessment of the greater risk right now? the problems in germany and france or prospect of president trump in the white house slapping even more taxes on the products and services the european union sells? trump is targeting _ the european union sells? trump is targeting those _ the european union sells? trump is targeting those countries - is targeting those countries with the largest trade surpl

the language from the ecb today was very clear.s they are much more concerned about the slowing growth picture and inflation. if slowing growth picture and inflation. , ., inflation. if they are concerned - inflation. if they are concerned about. inflation. if they are | concerned about the inflation. if they are - concerned about the slowing growth picture, are they also worried that they will not get much assistance from abroad? us is a huge market and there's tariffs donald trump has talked about, if he follows through, could that cause a further dent into europe pots economic growth prospects? the different countries in _ growth prospects? the different countries in europe _ growth prospects? the different countries in europe would - growth prospects? the different countries in europe would be . countries in europe would be impacted in different ways but the main focus would be on the german economy, which is already facing significant structural weakness through the auto and industrial sector and when you look at where some of

the ecb decision in frankfurt on thursday.outlook of a half-point cut, not just at the upcoming meeting but the one after it as well. ecb officials say a jumbo cut would reek of panic, but take a look at the weakness in our next chart in germany. industrial production numbers missing all estimates on friday. the weakest since covid 2020. how much are trump tariffs going to weigh on that growth picture even more? a big question ahead of that meeting but right here on bloomberg tv, stick with this because at 9:30 a.m. u.k. time, we will bring an exclusive interview with the ceo of audemars piguet on the outlook for the luxury watch market. tomorrow bloomberg television will bring you live coverage of our inaugural women, money and power event convening the most influential voices in finance from around the world to discuss the consequential themes facing the future of business. the opening trade coming up next, anna, kriti and guy taking you through the market open stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed w

thursday in europe we hear from the snb in switzerland and from the ecb. the risk to both his they intend to send a dovish message pretty wasn't too long ago we heard from an snb governor that negative rates are still in their toolbox. with the ecb we get their updated growth and inflation forecast alongside their rate decision. the risk is they tend to make a overstatement with both. tom: the doves in the ascendancy as we look ahead to the bank of canada and ecb on thursday and the fed later this month, we will see if the tune changes for the federal reserve, we get the inflation data out of the u.s. tomorrow. our markets reporter with the details, thank you. the rebel group that toppled bashar al-assad looks set to form a transitional government in syria. we will bring you the latest on that story as it continues to unfold. and stay with us for live coverage of bloomberg's women, money & power event convening the most influential voices in finance from around the world to discuss consequential themes facing the future of business. this is bloomberg. ♪ to

. >> interesting how do you compare now we are expecting the ecb to continue to cut rates this week?ces in terms of where we are in the cycle in europe versus the u.s clearly, the u.s. still shows signs of strong growth you mention the inflation print on top of mind european rates have been much more impacted by the tightening of monetary policy a few years ago as well as the impact of the trade issues with china and energy related concerns with russia and ukraine that is n't impacting the u.s. economy nearly as much we do see the rates likely to out perform as the ecb needs to be concerned with setting the policy rates over the fed. >> interesting when you think about the opportunities in the markets, where do you think the opportunities are at this stage? >> we think the opportunities are to own interest rate risk. to take shrank of advantage of d curve in the u.s. remains relatively flat and we haven't seen the true impact of monetary tightening that existed for the last couple years on the overall economy. not to say we think the economy is likely to deteriorate rapidly from here

are they the geithner problems the ecb can address? >> i think the ecb is a challenging outlook.e outlined a lot of the structural headwinds for germany. i think the political stasis that we are seeing is going to be something to monitor but as you say, it is very difficult to generate growth in this environment. this morning we already had the pmi for germany and france which were nudged higher but still and contractionary territory. we see the divergence between manufacturing and service sector. germany being the engine of growth and manufacturing being such a big component for driving german growth, i think the outlook does look quite sluggish. we are looking for relatively sluggish growth from the area going into 2025, 2026. that is going to mean the ecb will be dovish going forward and we are expecting another four cuts from the ecb and with rates settling around 2% by the second half of 2025, so they are going to be quite quick in terms of the easing path. different from other countries, particularly u.s., which has a different growth backdrop. a way of growing out of the f

the markets are probably looking at the ecb as a backstop. it was such a shock when emmanuel macron is all parliament back in july, so maybe the markets are in a wait and see situation thinking it cannot be as bad or as concerning is what happened in july. tom: the ecb may be is a backstop. when do we get a new p.m.? >> she said in the interview she thought a prime minister would come the day after the dissolving of the government. we heard from emmanuel macron vowing to stay on. there is really no reason why he should resign. it looks like the president stays until 2027, but the longer he delays it the longer he gets accused that it is his fault, and donald trump shows up with 50 heads of state with the reopening of notre dame. emmanuel macron does not have a good name yet. tom: so waiting if he can lend on someone that will appease all sides of this political debate. thank you very much with that exclusive conversation with the powerbroker in paris right now. breaking lines right now, and we move to the politics of asia and the uncertainty

companies don't like uncertain tom: yeah, does that tie in to the ecb reaction?he election and we've had the market scaling back and rate cuts across europe , weaker growth, it does not mean inflation follows. we go back before the crisis germany had a week growth, prospects are not great but they have higher inflation than elsewhere so if it brings lower inflation the ecb will cut but think they will stop short and do not see them going lower than that. growth has been negative, not positive. longer adjustment going toward target. >> it's very interesting. we had jobs date are on friday, additional dater out today, do they go -- do they go they cut in december? guest: fed made its policy-setting clear, policy is restrictive, they want to remove restrictions but our data dependent. we think they will cut but prospects are growing that they pause or slow down, ongoing rate cuts even if they take a pause but we expect december rate cuts. tom: janet enry on the prospects of a fed cut and not seeing rates below 2%. this is bloomberg. ♪ southern new hampshire universi

. >> what is your projection around ecb rates into 2025?key question is what will happen before the end of 2024. markets are expecting these cuts with a relatively high probability for cuts for the next meeting and we will begin the more conscious camp with 25 basis points seeming much more probable for the coming ecb meeting and all of this bringing policy rates down to 1.75% through 2025 but i think the path is important and there is no reason for the ecb to accelerate in terms of lowering interest rates. >> keep an eye on the view of 175 towards the indy of 2025. kevin steering clear of french debt for now but finding opportunities in european and french equities on the valuation story. and french president emmanuel macron in saudi arabia today as part of a two day visit as sales and geopolitical tensions will feature in his itinerary. this is his first visit to the kingdom since the killing of jamal khashoggi in 2018 at the saudi consulate in istanbul. volkswagen workers plan to stage walkouts today after labor leaders and management fa

a lot of people say maybe the ecb does do it and goes 50.er: we have in looking at this from a nato standpoint. we are seeing the economic separation. we will clearly go after china. i do think europe is in shape to fight with china maybe they should be. the german economy is vulnerable. there is a fraction or disappearance within europe and with our relationship there. i think it will be a drag on the global economy next year and that will not factor at all in the u.s. stock prices. nothing in the u.s. so far. lisa: the disappointments are more likely in the u.s. than in europe at a time when it has been priced in? ellen: so much has been priced in. i don't think the ecb will do 50. i think they probably should. it'll be counter to what they look at. it is hard to analyze europe or germany has been the juggernaut. it's pulling every thing together. we have a plan. we know what we should do. germany no longer does and that's a bit scary. lisa: a lot of us focusing on what's going on outside of markets. a 26-year-old has been charged with the

we have a cut in january, a cut in march and a cut in june such as that the ecb will stop.nflation coming above target at the latter half of 2020 five. we understand the risks are doing more than we expect them the reason could be because they think that the neutral rate is towards the lower end somewhere between 1.75 and 2% and maybe they see it in the first half of the year that could push them to go into an accommodative economy. tom: what independence your view, is that a trump tariff story? >> not at the moment because the trump administration will do after trump's inauguration is highly uncertain. we think at a minimum they will go with 20%, 25 percent tariffs on most of the globe, including europe. and that will leave inflation in the u.s. higher and will be somewhat inflationary for the euro zone. but we can't really put a number on it before we know it will happen. the reason for our inflation forecast rising in the second half of 2025 at the moment is largely based effects on energy. tom: at the base effect energy story. how have you adjusted your view for the fre

it is a path for the ecb.t the moment, they are pricing in two interest rate cuts which to me is conservative. we see in the weak data the last few months, the economic data has stalled largely due to the crisis confidence in the budget. i do believe inflation has been sticky in the past few months. i think we can start to see progress on that over the next year. if the economic data continues to worsen or we don't get recovery in 2025, the bank of england will have more willingness to cut rates. i through is desire or appetite to do that on the mpc. we had three rate cuts in the last year. for me, i think the pound could be set for quite a bit plunge if this happens quickly. >> fabulous. kyle, thank you very much for whatever you are working on. lovely to see you, sir. magnificent uk city of leicester. kyle chapman. >>> right, we are going to take a break. a new year, a new government for france. let's count one. let's be optimistic. let's take a look at the lineup in paris at the bid to break the political i

we have seen it from the fed and the bank of england and ecb.ince 2008, we have seen central bank policy support or central bank programs. i think the market would need that. without that, a huge amount of confidence would be lost. the market does require central bank to maintain confidence. >> we will see if they reach that point. in the meantime, thank you for joining us this morning. that was the head of fixed income research at rathbone. >>> coming up on the show, the second mandate at the helm of the eu executive arm with the team of commissioners. we will speak with carlos moedas after this break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. >> welcome back to the show. now the german chancellor

that's according to the ecb supervisory view and evaluation process.enders remained capital above requirements with higher interest rates sustaining profitability. the ecb did warn though that a weakening macroeconomics outlook and structure changes in the economy called for vigilance. we will hear from claudia buch at 11:30 gmt. >>> time to look at the equities this morning. the stoxx 600 in the red down .40%. investors are trying to understand how to position portfolios amid the central bank action this week. let's me take you to the different bourses and get a better idea of what is happening across the european continent. looking at the ftse, the main index here, down .60%. this after wage growth this morning suggested a pick up and, of course, that has impacted the way traders are looking at the upcoming bank of england meeting. in terms of the sector breakdown. this is the best sector which is technology up .70%. also a little bit of upside for household good names. i want to take you to the worst performing sectors. that's the most important mar

i'm looking at the ecb with rates expected to drop for the second half of next year.y get new fiscal stimulus and the support from the ecb and stocks in europe are looking cheap. ? >> it is earnings. and i think you are right. european stocks are a bit underweight but what is interesting, if you look at the history of investor earnings in european stocks, they only increase when they expect earnings to improve in europe and significantly. they need to be higher than the rest of the world. this is not something that will likely be on the cards this year. maybe it will slowed if we get this policy support, which is again questionable given the political uncertainty. tom: marja, equity research strategist, it is all about that story, but for now the u.s. has it. thank you for the market analysis. at 9:30 a.m. u.k. time we will be dissecting europe's economic challenges with nadia calvino. italy's prime minister says the government is willing to work with stellantis to keep jobs in factories in the country. the sides are in talks to protect around 40,000 jobs and sources

i think increasingly the governing council at the ecb are coming to recognize that.om: this is great. i have never typed in erw-krw, euro-won. you can do that on the bloomberg crepe lisa is on the phone trading this. we do not make recommendations here. jane foley again. across the nation and worldwide, apple card play hugely international. on the radio from 90 91 washington up to 90 29 in boston and this morning, we are on bloomberg television with you. we welcome all of you on bloomberg television. i hope the makeup is ok for bloomberg television. that is the way they roll over there. paul: alix steel says you have to invest in your face. tom: i completely missed that memo. we are on youtube. . this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ (cheerful music) (phone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs an

the playbook from the ecb standpoint is clear.t has its transmission protection instrument put in place a couple years ago. i expect ecb policy makers, if yields which are currently on the 10 year 85 basis points higher in france than they are in germany, that is about double their five-year average. that is not a stress point yet. policymakers should try to avert that economic crisis will try and have self-fulfilling commentary saying we have the toolkit come it is there bound -- it is there, we will try to keep a lid on yields. the market reaction this morning is pretty underwhelming, suggesting that even without the commentary that is where market participants expect things to go. lisa: it might not necessarily be some immediate financial crisis getting baked into markets, but the slow bleed of not having readership for monster, with questions over the president himself and whether he is going to resign. what point does that way not only on french assets but the euro as it is not the only region facing political instability, it

is it closer to the ecb considering bigger cuts, growth concerns and so on or rather than more on a fedarrative that actually the economy is doing pretty well and we're not cutting as much next year? >> i think uk is caught between those two worlds i don't think we have the clear signals with the economy as weak as the euro economy. clearly, it is not as strong as the u.s. that is why the bank of england is walking the path with the optionality and guidance they have the three cases. you can broadly map it across the u.s. version and euro area version. the uk is uncertain, therefore, why take anything off the table. >> let's see what they will do later today. we appreciate your time this morning. jack meaning for barclays. >>> in another move related to central bank decisions, the u.s. dollar risen to the highest level against the yen after the bank governor struck a dovish stone today. whether signal rates will rise, acknowledged fresh risks to the central bank outlook the comments came after the central bank put rates on hold in an 8-1 split. our lin lin filed the report >> reporter:

the ecb is probably going to be the fastest cutter.mewhere in between and the reason they are going to be cautious about how quickly they cut interest rates is because of data just like we had today. it wasn'tjust is because of data just like we had today. it wasn't just the fact that inflation rose from 2.3% to 2.6% but also services inflation is still really quite high running at 5%. in the euro area, it is around 4% so the uk clearly has a services inflation problem, it is taking a long time to get rid of that and yesterday we had some labour market data which showed wage growth was still very strong. so the competition of strong. so the competition of strong ways wages and prices has to be taken into consideration.- has to be taken into consideration. ~ ., ., consideration. we will hear a lot about _ consideration. we will hear a lot about stagflation, - lot about stagflation, inflation is still going up. forecasts suggesting it could be a brief period of stagflation but explain why thatis stagflation but explain why that is damagi

indeed, and that also adds to the euro and the european regions general economic lens where again the ecba speed much greater than perhaps a us fed is doing because of the underlying weakness in the economy which is now being compounded by all the turmoil around political uncertainty and gridlock in france. thank ou for and gridlock in france. thank you for your— and gridlock in france. thank you for your thoughts. - the president—elect donald trump has said afresh that he will block the japanese company nippon steel from taking over us steel. the takeover bid has been mired in controversy for almost a year since nippon struck a deal to buy the american company for $14.9 billion. but both president biden and his successor have been opposed to a takeover of what they regard as a strategic industrial asset. nippon steel is a historic us icon. it was one the world's most valuable company and the first billion dollar corporation. donald trump thing again on a social media that he will block that deal. —— saying again. as you've been hearing, president biden is in angola in what is his first v

there is a plan in place, mario draghi, the former chief figure at the ecb, he has put together thiset out why that is being enacted -- not being enacted, and what the problem is? guest: what francie has experienced is this condition where ms. economics increase economic challenges and these charges themselves feed into messy economics, so you end up with this vicious cycle to break. the way to break it is for us to have the economic policies, and there is a very clear pathway to what is needed to improve productivity, competitiveness, and growth, it is, as you say, a very well written report by mario draghi, the former prime minister of italy. so we know what the solution is, but implement it, you need political leadership. and if you can't get out of the cycle, then you neveret to implement it. what barnier tried to do was a small step towards it, but there was too much fiscal austerity and not enough economic growth elements. and it has failed. so we have to wait for the political leadership that can implement a plan that i think is well-defined. christian: mohamed el-erian, we ar

the ecb opened the door more clearly to further interest rate cuts.5, which includes france and germany. but also to help cushion potentially some of the trade tensions with the return of the trump coming back to the white house. >> charlotte, thanks as always. >>> next up we'll bring you the latest on the political upheaval in syria and what u.s. officials are saying about the country's new government. >>> michael weiss will join us next on "way too early." we're not sure how that other individual shown got through security. we'll be right back. security we'll be right back. for more than a decade farxiga has been trusted again and again, and again. ♪far-xi-ga♪ ♪far-xi-ga♪ ask your doctor about farxiga. jen b asks, "how can i get fast download speeds while out and about?" jen, we've engineered xfinity mobile with wifi speeds up to a gig, so you can download and do much more all at once. it's an idea that's quite attractive. or... another word... -fashionable? i was gonna say- "popular! you're gonna be pop-uuuu-larrr!" can you do defying gravity?! yea

overall, the ecb is going to be cutting rates far more aggressively.point cut thrown in, in 2025. the fed will get maybe a little bit closer to neutral but probably not below. there is raisin -- reason to have that. you have to be really careful keeping an eye on what is going on with the budget deficit in every country that we are looking at will be key for next year. there is so much in the government policy side. bond vigilantes really starting to gear up and keep an eye on what is going on in different countries. we have seen it in the u.k., an idea of it in the u.s.. i think that is going to be a key conversation for all of the countries. lisa: the trade in the american exceptionalism in the small caps given the fact that they seem the most leveraged. just picking out the window in the united states. seema: i think the small-cap, it is really about valuations. it is catching up with the large-cap. as you were saying before, small caps, they have significant exposure. if you don't see significant rate cuts coming through, that will be the fly in th

plus, ecb rate decision as well as cosco earnings.rities, emily rowland of john hancock and los angeles executive director gene seroka as we finish up the year, heading into cpi. what are you watching? dani: i'm just watching the enthusiasm that we hamper this market, enthusiasm but geopolitical risk. enthusiasm a policy risk for 2025. people are giving themselves kind of the out to say it might not all the sunshine and roses. >> especially these bank of america surveys saying 30% of geopolitics look at the events of the weekend. we are seeing shifting narratives when it comes to the middle east and russia. >> massive changes as we just heard. just basically overturning but water than we had seen in the middle east. this was bloomberg surveillance. thank you for choosing us. we will be back from tomorrow. from auctions, lots of them, have a great day. : all right,, lately. sonali: "bloomberg open interest" starts right now. ♪ matt: coming up, john stoltz will seize the s&p 500 hitting the 7100 by the end of next year thanks to a stron

that is something we saw yesterday with the ecb cutting rates by 25 basis points. take a look.e united states, all inflected higher after yesterday's punishing session. it was not terrible from the internals. in europe we saw the selloff gain steam after ecb president christine lagarde came out and did not give a sense she was going to acknowledge some of the deep pain. annmarie: she did give a not to the fact that europe is in political paralysis. she thinks maybe in 2025 that paralysis will evaporate given the fact we will get a new french prime minister and potentially have elections in germany. many say she could have leaned more into it given on the horizon there are so many unknowns when it comes to trade policy and how difficult it will be for europe to deal with president-elect trump. lisa: suggesting a rate cuts would be the path forward even as they remove restrictive to the benchmark target. the euro getting versus the dollar even though the dollar has been ascendant. part of this has been this idea that if ecb president christine lagarde is not more dovish, that mig

claudia buch, pcp supervisory board chair. -- ecb supervisory board chair.ivide administration has been trying to ease concerns about the thousands of drone sightings reported in new jersey and other parts of the northeast. i white house spokesperson said the drums are "a combination of personal, professional and government aircrafts." donald trump says he thinks the white house knows more than it saying. trump added he does not think it is an enemy but suggested his new jersey golf course could be a target, saying they're flying very close to bedminster. alibaba shares are falling in hong kong, down 2%. it agreed to sell it in time department store business for around $1 billion. it will result in a loss of $1.3 billion on alibaba's initial investment. the e-commerce giant is struggling to grow with rivals. t. rowe price out with a punching and call on treasury yields, saying the 10-year may climb to 6% for the first time in more than two decades. the firm's fixed income cio pointed to inflationary policies and the growing deficit under trump. he wrote he e

people should be aware of david klein of the california taxpayers association or cal tech's says the ecb's decision was made without transparency. >> klein says he is not opposed to the sdi program as a whole but believes the latest decision to increase paycheck withholdings was made without letting the public know. the edd says it did post the new increased on this part of its website. but klein says the agency did not put out any other notice or press release and should have done so. some people look at the stats and say, well, it's only a $50 a year, $100 a that's not that big a deal. but at the end of the year when you're counting $50 in this tax and this other tax, a local utility taxes, sales tax increase, gas tax increases. >> property taxes go up a couple percent a year. all these things add up and at the end the year, it's a big hit on your budget. so we think people need to be aware governor gavin newsom offering his thoughts earlier this week paid family leave. that was a multi-year stakeholder process dozens of hearings and public forums. that's a very transparent process. it w

great place to be where you can put your money to work, we have ecb into next year.ng on spread but if you are investing i think the yields looks attractive. tom: that -- and -- that -- that is the case for u.k. credit. alexandra: credit trades with some premium so i don't think it will make a big difference. sterling is the market where having lower expectations and sticky inflation is great because you can clip your coupons, do your analysis. being selective means avoiding places where there are problems and that is the way to outperform the market because you might see credit markets look expensive. tom: indeed. do your homework when it comes to the market. three cuts would be appropriate. the breakdown of the fed in a preview of inflation date or an eight minutes out of the u.k.. stay with us indeed. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: bring it down, the economy is stronger but still has weaknesses. what happened in the middle east, korea, germany? this could impact the united states. tom: bank of america ceo on risks facing the economy. we lead up to the fed decision. rev

the fed is at the lower end of cuts and when you think about who is the most dovish it's actually the ecb rba but feeding into that will be the inflation picture and we will even get more of a read on that and if we flip over again you can see maybe that work -- that will herald a risk for inflation in europe with cpi re-accelerating. you can access these charts and others throughout the show on your terminal. next, the opening trade with anna edwards and kriti gupta. that doesn't for bloomberg daybreak: europe. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: good morning from london. i am anna edwards alongside kriti gupta. european future said for a weaker open

i expect rates to collapse next year, because europe is in a recession, ecb slashing rates market forcess to come down. cheryl: what the fed to lower rates or or beganically. >> our treasuring dominated by foreign buying pressure very strong dollar they want appreciation of the u.s. dollar furthermore rates higher than europe a lot of other places, so, but as rates come down in europe, it will help shove our rates rohr our inflation will be in control as soon as shelter costs are equivalent rent finally comes down, and, are right now we're at fed 2% target if we throw out shelter costs i am expecting good inflation news a lot of foreign buying pressure collapse of i mean european central banks can rates four or five times a year a tremendous downward pressure on treasurys, hoping that on new treasury secretary will better manage options than janet yellen did. cheryl: we showed yields as talking about them, but very interesting thesis right now. >> from your lips to god's ears interest rates, makes sense europe pushes central bank pushes them down half, from u.s. it isn't all about fed ce

what we heard from the ecb official was fear about disinflation from china.hat terrorists causing inflation from the u.s. if trump were different tariffs on chinese imports, the flipside of that is deflation, and china has a couple of tools at its disposal if it wants to use in a trade war. he could subsidize borders and reduce the cost of their production and make the cost of their exports go down. can also let its currency weaken. economists are kind of makes on the degree to which they think other things would happen, but this ecb official we heard today is clearly putting his finger on something that the europeans are worried about. they have a much slower grout -- growth outlook, and he has right to be concerned. >> you are looking at a function on the terminal they can show you how the u.s. trading markets are coming out. >> you guys can have a conversation, i'm just clicking on seeing all the trade partners we have. full of about this is if you kind of change the main bar to china, you can see also just how much china is engraved into the global econom

and then an ecb rate decision. just before we go and a final word. is in and out. lisa: the idea that governor desantis could be the next defense secretary actually has legs and i am told that he was almost basically given the job yesterday. potentially we will hear moral about this -- more about that. but pete tags seth with a lot of hurdles. lisa: there is so much euphoria in markets going perfectly that there is a question about whether we are underpricing a slowdown in the ians laid it down. jonathan: is that the take away? the wrapup from the ians. tomorrow we will catch you up with max, nouriel, kathy jones of charles schwab and an ian free program. we are going to head over to michael mckee sitting down with the st. louis fed president and the gic central banker symposium. let us take a listen. >> something that would fall into the category of soft landing or goldilocks? >> i try to stay away from labels. i think of it clinically and we have a dual mandate and we have to focus on that dual mandate and i do not try to put labels around it. i lo

and then that ecb interest rate decision.dp, chris of wells fargo to -- wells fargo and the iif president tim adams. good morning to you all and have a wonderful weekend, thank you for choosing bloombergtechtv tv. this was bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪ matt: futures turn higher after the jobs number beats. katie: bloomberg open interest starts right now. sonali: coming up the labor market bounces back from storms and strikes, the u.s. added 227,000 jobs in november and that estimates. matt: blackrock and pimco, we will get reaction on the jobs report as well as acting labor secretary julie sue,, rick

the ecb come to the rescue and will those rate cuts give european stocks some of the ballast that were. let's flip the board and have a look at some of the targets, we are analysts are most bullish and bearish. oppenheimer talking -- topping 7100 and terms of this targets looking with a lens on the s&p. when it comes to the most bearish, let's flip the board, 5500. ubs, 6400. jp morgan and bank of america a little more nuanced with questions or on taxes and inflationary risks. some would suggest the outside chance of the fed coming back with a rate hike at some point next year. do not forget about having that on your radar. in terms of the ai rally, the transition has been fascinating and terms of the games that came through from the networking equipment maker, the likes of supermicro, then it moved to nvidia and vista. software next for 2025. there is nissan and that story coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data dr

national bank delivered a bigger than expected rate cut, 50 basis point points from swiss national bank ecbnutes ago union central bank cutting, federal reserve next week to come out say they are cutting rates again by 25 basis point points if things go the way you are laying it out doesn't that give some pause to the fed even a lower rate into economy that is growing? >> yeah. we would hope fed isn't extremely aggressive into 2025. again we think there is going to be a lot of animal instincts flooding the economy you are seeing with small optimism improving, 15 years got used to aggressively, central bank easing, we need to end that given, potential longer term support for growth productivity deregulates low tacts don't need lower interest rates may be few more cuts the bottom line you are going to have more central bank, test economies, nowhere as halt as earlier this week, cut rates also sect up for a stronger dollar, obviously, very, very strong already, china is continuing to ease, stronger dollar another disinflationary force for 2025 reception of the underlying in u.s. economic activ

you could catch our interview with claudia bush, ecb's supervisory board chair and deutsche boone displayingent at 11: 30 am u.k. time to add some views around the politics of germany and the economic challenges of that country. stay tuned for that interview. there's a lot more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ i graduated from southern new hampshire university. i always swoul back to school when i had time. new hampshire university. i went on our website, i spoke to an admissions counselor. we applied right then and there. that's when the journey really begins. going through the program, having the support that i had, really helped me understand what i can accomplish. and i learned this just by taking classes at night while working a full time job. the resources at snhu were incredible. i think if i was back at the beginning, i would choose snhu all over again. >> i think the dot plot will show two or three rate cuts in 2025. question of what would cause them to stop, that would be an economy continuing to do better than expected, inflation is sticky and fed revising up their estimate of what

we will have an important day next week with the ecb meeting, frank. >> silvia amaro, great to see you as also. >>> we look at south korea. these are live pictures from seoul where thousands are holding a candlelight vigil where opposition parties were moved to oust the leader. what you are seeing today is in sharp contrast to two days ago where the south korea military was storming the parliament after the martial law declaration. we are looking at the asian markets which are oadly higher. hang seng is down 1%. you can manage the kospi is down 1% as well. the japanese nikkei up other than .25%. >>> in addition to the developments in south korea and france, the fed is digesting the comments from jay powell. powell in the final public comments after the meeting in two weeks, gives us a review on the economy to andrew ross sorkin. >> the economy is strong and it's stronger than we thought than it was in september. the labor market is better and the downside risks appear to be less in the labor market. growth is initely stronger. the good news is we can afford to be a little more cautious

the traders are pricing in a 20% chance of a 50-basis point move lower from the ecb.o the main expectation is they will cut by 25-basis points. let's see what's going to happen. at this stage, the euro/dollar is 1.05. let's see whether the announcement of the decision and the new economic forecasts, i should say, could actually change and tip the balance of the euro against the usd. >> i know you will cover that later today. a busy day for you in europe. thank you very much. >>> we have a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to hear today and the stock pick that every investor needs to know. first, we breakdown one of the hottest trades on wall street and one etf that caught the wave early. >>> plus, the one chip stock closing in on nvidia's turf. seema mody will be here. >>> and call it the largest transfer in history with $1 trillion expected to be passed down in the next decade. what it means for wealth and one industry looking to get a piece of that action. very busy hour still head when "worldwide exchange" returns.