what are you factoring in in terms of the ecb reaction function?te cuts and that would be a cut in march and in june. >> that's assuming 2% to 15% tariffs. anything more and it is for the ecb to decide in which case it will have to be more but given the neutral rate and where we think it will stop, we think we are probably on the good side of it. >> that is interesting, that call on 50 basis points, and that factors in tariffs. are we underestimating the read across from the fed that may be held on pause for longer and what that impact is on the ecb and boe in the u.k.? >> our forecast has higher for longer. we do not think the ecb will be rattled if the fed stops or goes quicker. they have said they will be meeting dependent and meeting by meeting. of course, it cannot completely ignore it, but we don't think it will be watching exactly very closely. >> do you have a risk radar in terms of the sectors or segments that are most vulnerable to tariffs? what stands out to you as the weak links when it comes to the u.s. economy on the impact of tariffs

. >> the ecb is. mario centeno tells cnbc that europe must take action. >> we are. >> probably use. >> a little. >> bit too much. >> to be. >> sitting in the passenger seat. i think we need to take the steering wheel. we have the means to do that. >> well, a very good morning to you and a warm welcome to the program. president trump has done it. he's ignited a trade war hitting canadian and mexican imports with a 25% tariff, while putting levies of 10% on chinese goods. the duties are set to come into effect from tuesday at 501 gmt. let's get a check on the market reaction to the news of tariffs out over the weekend. as you can see beside me, it is a sea of red for european markets. you've got the stoxx 600, the main benchmark, down more than 1%, and every sector is participating in the sell off every region as well. looking at the bourses individually, here's the picture in europe this morning. we've got the ftse 100 here in the uk down 1.3%. the xetra dax, bearing the brunt of the sell off, down 1.6

you had some rising energy prices in the ecb -- and the ecb is sensitive to that.kish members. for example, what is required to change is for the members to gradually accept the ecb is going to need more, to do more, and we will get that in a few months. jonathan: george, great to hear from you as always. george saravelos of deutsche bank on the risk to return to parity on the euro-dollar. relative monetary policy and eight tariff risk --a tariff risk premium. lisa: when you have german members looking to maybe keep rates a little higher. jonathan: up next, kevin gordon, angelo zino, gregory daco, tony rodriguez. the third hour of "bloomberg surveillance" is up next. ♪ ♪ where ya headed? susan: where am i headed? am i just gonna take what the markets gives me? no. i can do some research. ya know, that's backed by j.p. morgan's leading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management >> it does not look to me like wall street has priced in these tariffs going into effect on a sustained basis. >> i feel

they've got to go home, think about it, but the ecb have got to get together and make some change. test after losing 3—2 to japan in berlin. he'll face the winner of tonight's other semi between barry hawkins and yuan sijun. britain's tom pidcock has won a senior stage pro team last month. flat run, having won two of the first four stages. it has taken me awhile as an elite, but be honest, yes, just the concentration it takes at this feel like he's "already won." bosnia and afghanistan. four years later, he broke his neck and back with a new sense of purpose. lewis coombes has been to meet him. for 25 years, rob shenton has served his country. until the toll on his mental health made you lose part of your identity when could latch onto, and for me it has been sport. he found physical challenges helped him to tackle his depression. but that also became harder after a the journey of me getting back to near full recovery took problems? keep going. it will always be difficult, you will hit the dark places. despite the mental and physical obstacles country once more as part of the royal brit

, and will achieve more than any unilateral action by the ecb in boycotting this match, while we have for many ordinary afghans, watching their cricket team is one of the few remaining sources of enjoyment. as such, we can confirm that we will play this fixture." not the graphic statement. that graphic of the statement. that is the result of england's odi against india, they four 77 four wickets. j the trip to italy on saturday. eddiejames will make his first wales international start. from the as—nil thrashing by france in paris with faletau it's an important game for us. and we're well aware that we have got some other to want to get a win. that's the most important thing. it's definitely not the biggest game that wales have had in the last 20 years. ready to take on france. fin smith will make his first test start after seven appearances off the bench. confirmed that australia will become the sixth ground, will host the first game to be held in the asia—pacific region next year. the los angeles rams will be the designated �*home' before we go i can tell you that liverpool have now

think that with yesterday's decision, we actually saw the bank of england moving further toward the ecb more dovish approach? >> yeah. look again, central bank divergence is something that the market focuses on a lot. and you know 6 to 12 months ago that was the topic. there's no doubt about it that the bank of england's tone is somewhat more dovish. they are very aware of monetary policy and the need to really inject impulses into the economy to get uk economic growth going at levels which, you know, which will bring about long term debt sustainability. >> michael, great to have you on the show. hopefully we can do this again in the short term. michael higgins, the cio at phoenix group. now coming up on the show, we'll hear from the monopolist fed president neel kashkari. today that exclusive interview is coming up at 1340 gmt with our us colleagues. and still on this show, the countdown begins to sunday's super bowl. we'll get the latest from new orleans and dig into what it could mean for advertisers after this break. >> you put together like a classic always work your magic every ti

jonathan: i wonder if there is a message for ecb, as well.e people signaling they would like to cut basis points, why are they doing the same thing? lisa: since when do german central bankers take advice from the bank of england? there is a question on whether this is a dual mandate. jonathan: sterling right now is down by one full percentage point against the u.s. dollar, 1.2374. amazon reported after the closing bell, jack caffrey of j.p. morgan writing, interesting times are more of a challenge for markets. there are stream -- extreme versions, to the point where it can be paralyzing to many. jack joins us for more. we are starting to see some of that from officials, officials who do not know what to do in this moment. jack: you are left with having to respond and react to a series of executive orders. i think we are at 40 plus at this point in time, and so it is rather hard to figure out how do you allocate? i think it is hard how you sometimes allocate capital when i can change my mind quickly and it is more difficult when i'm going to s

questions hanging over european banks is how you were going to handle the turn to read cuts from the ecb. how do you expect a mortgage growth pending with rates coming down? >> yes, i think rates are already coming down. just by having historic high revenue numbers in 2024, we expect our revenue numbers for 2025 to remain around that figure, and does rates come down they stimulate mortgage production. we saw strong mortgage production in 2024, and we expect that continued strength to continue for ing going into 2025. lizzy: as the netherlands' largest lender i wonder how you expect donald trump's tariffs into effect not just the netherlands, but also ing as well. >> tariffs are not good for economic growth, but ing has a diversified franchise operating in europe, the u.s., and asia, and we had the opportunity to front pockets of growth, and european growth is not been strong and yet we managed to grow what pretty good pace. we are increasing our loan book by 27 million euros by 2024. we expect our customer growth to be more percent in terms of lending and deposit in 2025. lizzy: someplac

i'm talking about this with the same light that the ecb may take a page from the bank of england anden in the face of somewhat stickier inflation. jane: there is a lot of news floating elsewhere. when you mentioned the euro, we had pretty weak growth, we have political issues from france and germany, and it really is still fragmented in france and germany , as well. that is not a great situation for europe. it is weak leadership at a time when trump is threatening the eu with tariffs, a difficult position and the impossibility from the euro and looking up politics in the u.s. jonathan: plenty of debate on the continent today about whether neutral rate might be, i'm not sure why we are still having a conversation about neutral at the ecb when they suggest that they have a real conversation about making an accommodation quickly. jane: we have had that conversation quite a while, and we know exactly what the neutral rate is. but one thing that the ecb does is there is the possibility they could relate to the key, and that is what we have in europe, and that will potentially be a break o

ecb cotton is alive with more on that.t dhs secretary kristi noem fresh off a visit to guantanamo bay for the administration continues to grow its migrant detention facility for those it says are the worst of the worst. some criticism and concern has started to emerge. primarily from the american civil liberty unit about the living conditions all the migrants want access to legal representation. here is noem's response. >> of course we are giving due process to migrants who do not all the time from the same procedures we already have been. where are they advocate for the children that are missing that joe biden lost? where in that not advocating for the simmons who lost children lake and rylands family, johnson's family. get your priorities straight this is about america start focusing on them. >> noem shared photos of the 2 military flights that took off this week each carrying roughly a dozen migrants who were all gang members according to dhs about u.s. officials say the rap sheets for those on the second flight include

people say the ecb has to cut more, just follow the money. jonathan: equities negative stateside.ary phenomenal. up something by like 8%. let's get an update on stories elsewhere. yahaira: disney shares are rising in the premarket. the company reporting robust first-quarter results led by its blockbuster films. streaming did well amid price hikes, achieving a third straight quarter of profitability. the gains offsetting what was a tough quarter for disney's tv networks and theme parks. president trump said he wants iran to be great and successful that it cannot have a nuclear weapon. trump posted to true social this morning that he prefers a verified nuclear peace agreement. the post comes after the president signed a directive to raise economic pressure on iran through sanctions and tougher enforcement. the u.s. treasury department says elon musk's government efficiency team has been given read-only access to coded data of the government's payment system. one team member has been given top-secret security clearance. democratic lawmakers raised concerns about the system's integrit

what ammo does the ecb have to combat this?han: in this market, president donald trump ramping up terror threats saying levees will definitely happen. not specifying a level or timeline for any action against the european union. for china, now with corresponding counter measures. china including export controls on critical minerals and market access restrictions to some american firms. we will wait to see what they do and what mexico does as well. that will be a big one a little bit later. lisa: the president mexico outlining plan b. that might be more salient considering they don't want to blow all of their ammunition now . jonathan: if we weren't talking about trade we probably would've opened with this. doge team shutting down some payments to federal contractors. musk posting the corruption and waste is being routed out in real time. lisa: a lot of questions surrounding this and if they even have the authority to do this. congress mandates the money that gets spent. he tweets that he has gained access to some of this. he al

you know, whether you look at the uk, whether you look at the ecb, japanese rates are going up, the chinesethat, in my opinion, is going to show up in the yield curve. if we see a 50 spread between twos and tens, i would think that the underlying economy would be much healthier than if we see the twos ten spread go back towards zero or inversion. >> i would only say that that little spiel by rick should be played in graduate level courses. play it with them, make them memorize it, and they're ready for the salomon brothers bond trading desk. oh wait, that doesn't exist anymore. but in any event, that is exactly the story. what the long end is concerned about being. prices and growth and the short end follows the fed and what we talk about and debate and yell and scream at each other is the gap between the two, you know, and why one affects the other and one doesn't. i'm curious, as i said earlier, about the gap between how the ten year has eased in terms of its yield, but people are a little less confident in fed rate cuts. that, to me has spoken to concern about inflation and concern about