when you look at the chart that we just saw my money is on the eci. earnings is that there is so much noise going on. what i focus on is the tilt in the momentum. that momentum is beginning to shift to the right side. alix: are the higher wages coming from the likes of walmart or gap rather than higher-paying jobs? joe: it is still not getting their. it is still a slow growth environment. when it need to see comes to the u.s. economy, consumer credit and aggregate mortgage debt starting to move higher. in normalized times that grows around 6%. even in a recession the growth is around 3%. this is going to be the slowest rate increase in history. alix: what i am really excited about today is the non-opec meeting. my question coming out of this is, does opec prove that it no longer matters? i point to opec spare capacity. spare capacity is the oil you can bring on for 30 days that lasts for three months. that has been declining steeply as the high production is coming at the expense of the spare capacity. they don't even have the capacity to do it. think

when you look at that chart we just saw, my money is on the eci. it's moreefers it, comprehensive.he hourly earnings, there is so much noise going on there. this is what i focus on, tilting the momentum. that moment him is beginning to shift to the right side now. we're seeing evidence of higher wages there. alix: higher wages coming from the likes of walmart, gap, target employees rather than higher-paying job. what is the payback when the minimum rage -- wage is raise to $15 -- raised to $15 and i lay -- in l.a.? guest: you need to see aggregate mortgage debt move higher. in normalized times, that grows at 6%. even in a recession, the growth and mortgage credit is around 3%. janet yellen and company will move very slowly moving into 2016. this will be the slowest rate increase in history. alix: and ever. i'm excited about today, the non-opec meeting, nopec, my question, my big take away was did opec prove that it no longer matters? i point to opec spare capacity. spare capacity is basically the oil you can bring on in 30 days that lasts for three months. that has been declining v

the eci has been moving for the past 1 12 months. i think wages will follow that. as wages go up.re people have more jobs, they spend more money. you'll see a lift in markup in my opinion. charles: there are still 4 million jobs open that were missing since the great recession. and tha the wages have gone down from 57,000 to 52,000. we're playing catchup. >> it's a step in the right direction. we saw panic in the bond market over this number. i think that's a mistake. the fed will hike rates this year. they will move at the pace of an injured turtle. charles: man, that was a tough visual. the turtle with their shell cracked. >> that's right. that's right. so people shouldn't panic. they should still hold bonds and shorter term bonds. charles: they should hold bonds? >> they should hold bonds, but shorter term bonds. hilary: i would not. charles: i don't want to go into the bond thing. we don't have a lot of time. i want to ask you your thoughts about the job situation. is this a blip? is this the start of something sustainable? >> it's on the right trajectory. we didn't expect tha

progr and fi eashed and that they may ne--ned and thath mne th eeshat everne from e dg the voluners eci vetns ce a e ol oel erans alls th dendant to eernce a camarer to he orheecame accusmeto in militry we knw thel works. it's ouropth amemel pvide the ur wh thources they edo help oueters who fa intohe justice system, gback oe ght ac and transitiuccessfully ba int soety they s defd. clong, igant to thankinguishe airn, tistigud ranng member and their retive staforheir coopetin thte. i b thchair: e gentlen elds back thealan ohiti fo purse does the gtlem from tse cognn? mr. culonld see im csent tlaim time iopsitio altugh i pportthe geleman endm th chair witout jeion, the gemanroxas reco f fe minute cul: i thank th gentle it'sooamenent would enag mbers to suppndieldack, an. the air: the geleman texas yieldsack. thquestn s the ament offerebyhe gtl from r--onhe and ofred by t gentleman from viinia. e say aye. tho oedno. in opinion of thr, ayeavit e amement igro. fowhat purpe do t geman from taseek recognion? cbeoni to move r the word andnter colquy wit mgooen thgentman frorth carolina. the cir

tom: the eci, one measurement of wages, has a new movement up is that i momentum or a recurrence equation where once it gets going, it gets going? david: it certainly does, especially given the fact that it is happening against the backdrop that the volunteer quit rate has gone up 1.9 percent, the highest since 2006. when people are quitting her job at that rate, they have another job lined up or they think it will be easy to find another job. all this suggests the labor market is tightening. brendan: the quick weigh -- the quit rate is rising. part-time for economic reasons is bit down a little bit but this version is way down since the last two cycles. david: discouragement is more important. the fact that people are having more babies. having a baby is like buying a house. it is a long-term investment. you have to be secure about -- tom: really? there is a "surveillance" exclusive -- children are a long-term investment. brendan: do we know cyclically what baby volume says about the economy? is it in fact a measure of hope? david: i would like to think that is the case. especially becau

if you look at the eci up 2.7% for the quarter.f you look at the survey data like the compensation index, that's growing at a rate more consistent with 3 to 4% growth. >> your outlook on the fed for the rest of the year? >> don't fear the fed. we're in such a low interest rate environment and the fed is like greece. people get overly focused on that and they take their eye off the ball. >> thanks for joining us this morning. >> boeing announcing that the ceo is stepping down as of july 1st. his replacement is the current president and coo a 30 year veteran of the company that started out as an intern in the 1980s. >> carter thanks for coming in today. >> thanks for having me. >> while we know that boeing has a mandatory retirement age of 65 this still came as a little bit of a surprise to some people. >> in general the street felt that year end would be the timing but i don't think this is as much of a surprise. they had more of a year of transition time working together with him being in chicago so although it's faster than we exp