but let's start just with the economic data.ok at election models that are based on, you know, essentially economic data, gdp, jobs, per capita income, what is the prediction? >> most would predict a close election. the reason being that they look really only at what's happened over the past year or so. historically, voters have short memories and they care about are things getting better. the jobs numbers have been mixed over the past year. we've had some decent months, some not so good months. they've been ticking up from recessionary to average. and when the -- the economy's average, the incumbent usually wins as a default. you can find models that are published and have obama with a 97% chance of victory and some that have romney with a 90% chance. if you take a consensus of them, average them together, you get obama with a 55% chance of re-election which basically means, basically means a coin flip, a toss-up. the conventional wisdom that obama is doomed because the economy is not reflected in the consensus. >> let's look a

better economic data and the fed, too, because we've been thinking about the fed and the good economic data as an either/or but maybe you get both. strong employment report and the fed still act on quantitative easing. three things. a decision next thursday and start meeting on wednesday. >> what's next? they'll buy the bonds as long as they commit to making changes so now we have to see the countries commit to making changes. >> i talked to my 19-year-old. i'll do as long as you make the -- >> right, right. >> we worked with michele before. >> so what's going to come next is a lot of back and forth. spain's going to agree. won't agree. seeing the markets go up and down. why is the ecb so insistent? go back to august of one year ago. this is when they made a supposedly secret deal. bring up the chart again that you had in the preview. >> promised to clean the room. >> right, right. said in august of a year ago, if you promise to clean your room, we will keep your interest rates low. and sill vie owe said, yes we will and didn't. >> this is what conditionality means. >> yep. >> it means

come thursday, the next piece of economic data on the docket will be a preliminary look at the global manufacturing picture. market watchers will be looking for signs that it may have hit a bottom. ruben ramirez, "n.b.r.," new york. >> susie: back now to today's oil prices, they tumbled abruptly in mid-afternoon on rumors that u.s. and european leaders were planning a coordinated release of oil from emergency stockpiles. the white house denied the speculation. crude futures tumbled 2.5% to $96.62 a barrel, they were closing in on the $100 mark early this morning. joining us now, john kilduff, founder and oil analyst with again capital. john, despite all the denials are you expecting some kind of release of emergency oil in the coming days? >> yes, in the very near future, susie, i think the $100 mark is the level which will trigger this. we went above it last week. we flirted with it this morning as you mentioned. and i think that's going to bring on a global coordinated release. >> susie: but what would really trigger s it price or is it tensions between israel and iran, is it worrie

so nick, that economic data from china certainly got everybody's attention this morning. and some people are even wondering whether the economy in china is slowing more than we think. what are your thoughts on that? >> it's very good the chinese economy is slowing. that number is actually not all that disappointing but it was the 11th straight month where chinese producers said that business is slowing. so china is clearly on a slower growth path and one that could tip over particularly given the wranglings that we have seen with japan most recently. >> all right so, china is slowing. europe is in a recession. what does all this mean for american businesses. and the federal reserve's promise to save the economy and to create more jobs? >> well, it's very good the federal reserve has a long road ahead of it. the global economy as you rightly point out is slowing. the u.s. economy is not in great shape as it is. unemployment is still over 8%. and so the federal reserve through the plans it announced last week is really trying to push liquidity into the system to grow the ec

as a matter of fact, you think about what we have seen over the past few weeks, the economic data has no doubt been disappointing. however you have had sort of coordinated central bank easing, not only from the fed here in the u.s. but also the central bank in europe, you know, which has really helped propel stocks a little higher if you are asking me what it will do for its u.s. economy, i question how it will really impact economic growth when interest rates are at incredibly low levels. >> tom: maybe the economic impact and its risk asset impact. and when you talk about stock a lot of folks think we merging markets what emerging market specifically can actually benefit by actions in the u.s.? >> well, i think from action here in the u.s. generally speaking, when the fedex panneds their balance sheets and they try to become accomodative t has a tendency to lower interest rates in the u.s. and that encourages lending which may actually mean investors may borrow money in the u.s. and start investing abroad in areas with higher interest rates. i think it might have a marginal positive

also the recent economic data like the durable goods today. are we sliding backwards economically speaking? >> we're longer-term investors. i view it as longer-term opportunities. some of the defensive names have run up quite a bit for a lot of reasons that were given. so there's some opportunity in some of the more leveraged, higher-growth, higher beta, higher volatility types of names out there. >> does that mean -- we'll get back to you in a second, but i want to follow up with you, michael on that. are you selling some of the miners? i know you like b.h.p. billiton. you had some real estate holdings. are you dumping those for higher tech names? >> we've trimmed some of our natural resource names recently in the refining area. but no, it doesn't mean we're wholesale getting rid of commodities because i think a lot of the negative news has been priced into commodities already and they're presenting some very interesting longer-term risk-reward profiles. >> and charlie, give us a few names that you're looking at specifically. >> on the cyclica

economic data showing a slowdown. and forget december 31st. cal cliff impact already here? the president slamming trickle-down economics. but isn't that exactly what the fed is doing? why the so-called fed effect stinks for the little guy. plus, guess who's not paying their fair share in taxes. the federal government. a story you will not want to

look, the initial economic data was pretty miserable, but the market is not really responding. >> clearly nobody's paying attention to the u.s., it is all about china, the additional stimulus and all of that. traders really have found this market to be quite oversold taking the opportunity to ride on the back of good headlines because that is all that is driving us is headlines. make some money. i think they're taking a little bit of money off the table at the end of the day. ashley: are we due for a correction anytime soon? >> you're hearing a lot for people talking about corrections for what people would normally expect after a run-up like this if you are going to have a correction. some pundits say as much as 25% would not surprise them. a lot of negative stuff. ashley: todd, you see the market is a little as well. >> we're up against a great resistance level, 1449 s. and p. you have to make sure you protect yourself because i do believe a correction is on the horizon. based on the fed says, nobody cares about gdp, all we care about is the fact the fed will help us, the fed is not help

now yuko in terms of economic data, we have date data due out later today. so lots to watch out for there. yuko? >> thank you. >>> eu ldeeaders called extraordinary summitor novemb. they areooking to resolve a trillion euro question. that the question they have for the budget. the budget will cover the seven-year period from 2014. leaders so far fail to agree on how to spend the money. their stance is varied on how to prior advertise infrastructure project. that kind of spending is meant to boost economic growth and the debt problems. they are also divided on how tois tribute agricultural subsidies. france another sticking point. continuing oppose with financial ansactionsant eu. those who want the levees say they will strengthen the region he physical health. a two-bay summit is a bit to break the impart. starting on november 22nd in brussells. other summit will plan through november and december. they will leave no room for other discussions. >>> that's all for me from now. will leave with you a recap of the markets. >>> brazilians are enjoying the road to

forced by market apartments or the economic data? really the economic data in just the past four weeks has been slightly ticking higher whether it's home sales, retail sales, even small business optimism today. he's got to look at all of that. he can't just pull the trigger because he kneels like -- feels like he's got to do it now. he's got to do it if the data tells him to. i'm not so sure, jonathan. >> no, i agree. they've been sitting on these for a long time, and they could have pulled the trigger months or quarter ago and probably made the right decision not to do so, but i think there is some political push that's going to force the fed to make some sort of move to get this market to continue to move higher. when main street opens up their portfolio statements at the end of the month, they like to see these numbers keep going higher, and what cothey attribute it to? the president making whatever moves he's said he's made so far. i think both parties are going to hang their hats on any headlines that can help them. cheryl: gent

we got some economic data and what can you tell us about that? >> before i talk about the stock market let me dpgive you the headline figures. the industrial out put fell 1.3%. that's the second straight month of decline and it is worse than whattagists had expected. second of all we also had some inflation numbers. consumer price index fell 0.3% compared with the same month last year and that's the fourth straight month of decline underscoring japan's deflationary trends eaking of e ock market trading let's check where the nikkei average is. it's up about.2%. analysts are saying that china will continue to be a key factor in tokyo. on thursday the nikkei average fell but reversed to positive territory as investors saw a shanghai stock surge. we also need to keep a close eye on china. shares given the ongoing political tension between japan and china. overnight gains in europe are going to provide some support for japanese shares. a bigger gains for the nasdaq. it finished at hopes that spain is moving towards economic reforms and fixing its trou

the economic data is coming in very weak at an alarming pace. chicago purchasing managers, a broad gauge of midwestern economic activity the lowest level in three years. with the g.m. early this week with durable goods, we have a weak equation. throwing in corporate earnings, weakening. federal express, intel, caterpillar, bellweathers for the economy, it sends a weak signal about the economy. sooner or later, gravity will overwhelm the central bank easing. the question is, does it happen before or after the election? >>neil: we live in the moment and i do not dispute what you are saying. but i do say the barometer has been right 90 percent of the time. as the quarter goes before the election, so go the election for or against the incumbent. this are many other barometers that point in a variety different ways so this is one of them. it doesn't necessarily mean anything. i am wondering if what this is saying for president obama is that people are going to look at their financial statements, if they are lucky enough to have accounts and they are u

there's touch and go economic data, but oil, as it comes down, it's cheaper for oil intensive energy companies to operate; correct? >> yeah, and, i mean, that could also boost -- directly hit the consumer. if we see gasoline prices come off qieblght as well, this could spur an economic rebound. stocks hit a four year high last week. we're consolidating right now, but i think that the support's around 14.40* on the s&p, and all the economic data this week is expected to be better than what we saw over the last month, and i think z the week progresses on, we'll start focusing primarily on that jobs report that comes out next week. remember, there's only one more after this report, and, you know, we're really going to start to see, you know, is it helping at all? i think that the stock market has a floor built into it with qe supporting it. liz: i don't know if we can show home builders, but there's a lot of smart people who believe that the home builders reflect the qe, if it's working anywhere, it is working in the housing sector, at least psychologically. while they are down today, t

how could one strike affect economic data across the country?for the answer we're turning to an economist and co-chair of the institute for research on labor and employment at the university of california, berkeley to explain. sylvia, thank you for joining us. 26,000 teachers striking. how does this work? they're part of the survey? >> seems they are part of the survey. that is what cnn reported. if in fact they're part of the survey which they are there are two points. one is the household survey, that's where we get the unemployment rate from. these striking teachers will not affect the unemployment rate. because they are, they have jobs. they're not working. that survey has a provision for those who are out on strike. now, it will affect the jobs numbers, the jobs numbers come from firm data. and that is the payroll data. so if they are not on payroll, which if they're striking they're not, then they will be netted out of the monthly jobs numbers. but remember, there will be temporary. melissa: right. but i mean, still, the way people follow

. >>> earlier mixed economic data failed to impress investors. initial jobless claims hit a two-month low, but the final tally on the second quarter gdp was lower than expected. >>> after the bell, battered blackberry maker research in motion reported a smaller than expected quarterly loss. shares soared in late trade. discover also got an after-hours boost from upbeat earnings. nike, however, stumbled thanks to weak demand in china. >>> earlier apple drove techs and the nasdaq higher. >>> ge, part owner of this network, hit a four-year high after predicting a 10% rise in industrial revenue. >>> tempur-pedic shot up after announcing it will buy rival sealey for about $229 million. >>> heineken won a two-month battle for asia pacific breweries with its $4.6 billion bid for the tiger beer maker. >>> california governor jerry brown signed twin bills yesterday blocking universities and employers from requiring applicants to give up their e-mail or social media passwords. >>> and, finally, zegat is out with its 2012 fast food survey and here are the w

the fear of economic decline was rising after some very disappointing economic data. >> let's take a closer look at some of the latest market numbers. the dax closed just a tad down at 7389. euro stoxx 50 ended the day 0.5% down. the dow jones is going up just a tick. the euro trading at $1.2967. new figures say the slump in the eurozone is worsening, and business activity has hit its worst patch in three years. the closely watched purchasing managers' index shows germany and the rest of europe are drifting apart economically. france was the biggest disappointment of thursday's report. between august and september, french economic the performance came in below all the worst predictions. germany, on the other hand, shows signs of improvement with orders expected to increase. well, the european union is already raising eyebrows at the prospect of their parliamentary elections in belarus on sunday -- the prospect of fair parliamentary elections. >> germany's foreign minister is concerned about developments in belarus. the group of observers who wanted to monitor the country's parliament

. >>> well, tuesday started with down economic data and ended with apple riding to the rescue. august manufacturing fell for the third straight month and the sector hired the fewest workers since late 2009. in addition july construction spending fell the most in a year. ironically that data was partially welcomed by traders rooting for the fed to launch further stimulus to boost the recovery. income, gold hit a nearly six-month high on heightened stimulus expectations. >>> on the bright side, august car and truck sales were up 20% over a year ago. honda and toyota led the way compared with quakes from a year ago. general motors, ford, and chrysler each reported more than 10% increases. apple led a late rally after distributing invitations to a september 12 san francisco event, widely expected to be the release of the iphone 5. >>> netflix tumbled on amazon.com's licensing epics for prime instant video just day after epics exclusive streaming agreement with netflix ended. >>> facebook hit a new all-time low having lost more than half its ipo price of nearly $38. >>> watch fedex.

the other thing is i indicated some concern about the economic data we have been getting. much of it has been that good. we have been talking about how good it has been for stock prices but not for the results of the companies. >> what do you think of the trade? >> i don't mind it. i look at crude in the weakness as a proxy for global growth. i think if you are going to play the beta trade i think you buy the calls. they are cheap. >> he is buying a longer data call. >> one more time. want to buy halliburton with the smoothing mechanism 100 shares will cost you more than 3,3$3,3 got a question send us an e-mail. we'll answer it in the one-on-one web action right after the show. you have trade updates there as well as options blogs. we want you to check it ut. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis. it's an all-you-can-eat buffet for all things trading. thinkors

i want to make a point about the economic data. i wonder how many of the qe-3 critics are starting to be silent. i know there are pros and cons, but when you look at durable goods data, i would imagine some of the people calling for qe-33 would start to feel a little vindicated. it's an interesting dynamic. >> i'd love to hear rick santelli's thought on that. >> me too. >> it's pretty easy. the economy obviously isn't moving on fundamentals. so woe be to all the people buying it that continue to play the ponzi scheme to buy it. i haven't advocated selling it. anybody that said, oh, gosh, i could have bought it at that price, they were right. all these people avoiding the fundamentals, when the day of reckoning comes, i don't think they're going to be able to dance between the rain drops. >> and all this fed easing globally really has this idea that you want to be putting your money into hard assets, things like oil, things like gold, even real estate. larry, where are you on that in terms of asset allocation today? if you don't lik

we have to see what further economic data is going to bring us. we have nonmanufacturing ism on thursday and we have the employment numbers on friday. let's see what these bring. i think the market is way ahead of itself right now. it is still in a positive channel that i like, but i want to see economic data that can really push us one way or the other, and i want to either hear -- if i don't see that, see the ecb say what they are going to do and the fed say what they are going to do. liz: that's going to be the jobs number if you are looking for data particularly. let's spin it forward to elliot warren, waiting on some data about oil and natural gas. still looking at something that's a lot better than the recent lows on natural gas. >> natural gas i think it is higher based on really technical reasons. if you look at a chart at it, it reached the bottom and made the same bottom a few times in a row and sort of bounced off that. i can't think of any news-driven item that would cause natural gas to be up ticking the way it is. i think it's really

the ecb president, might have to say pushed a little bit in the background corporate news and economic data. >> we say in frankfurt for a closer look at wednesday's numbers. the dax finished up by more than 0.4%. you're a -- euro stoxx 50 also looking pretty good. the dow at this hour unchanged. the euro trading at a value of $1.2595. >> that is it for now. we will be back just after the break. do not go away because we have a story about 10 somali pirates who are being tried at a court in hamburg. >> do not go away. >> welcome back. 10 somali pirates are being tried in court in hamburg in northern germany. >> in 2010, they allegedly took over a german vessel in waters off the coast of somalia before being overpowered by a european naval patrol. >> as the trial nears its 100th day, we look at how the german legal system is dealing with its first pirate case in a very long time. dan hamburg pose a criminal court has seen its share of villains -- >> hamburg's criminal court has seen its share of the lens, but this is the first time in 130 years that alleged pirates are appearing -- its share

the other thing is i indicated some concern about the economic data we have been getting. much of it has been that good. we have been talking about how good it has been for stock prices but not for the results of the companies. >> what do you think of the trade? >> i don't mind it. i look at crude in the weakness as a proxy for global growth. i think if you are going to play the beta trade i think you buy the calls. they are cheap. >> he is buying a longer data call. >> one more time. want to buy halliburton with the smoothing mechanism 100 shares will cost you more than $3,300. got a question send us an e-mail. we'll answer it in the one-on-one web action right after the show. you have trade updates there as well as options blogs. we want you to check it out. >>> just sold it ahead of earnings. able to triple their money in just one week. but now the stock has moved against them. so how will they try to make their money back? find out when options actions returns. time for pump up the volume. queen latifah is not the only one bringing down the house. this company finances

economic data but moves were actually quite limited. now, uncertainty surrounding europe's debt woes kept many dealers on the sidelines. however, it was a slightly different story for euro/yen. those jitters actually worked in favor of the japanese currency as a save haven. wither about 11 minute into trading, seeing pretty hefty losses here in tokyo. >> thanks, young guy. you >>> a small firm in tokyo built an ecofriendly car that runs on both hydrogen and gasoline. it was built from a regular gasoline-powered car, equipped a hydrogen tank, a fuel injerked and chrome mechanism for running on hydrogen and gasoline. hydrogen emits no carbon dioxide when burned as fuel. the car uses gasoline only for sudden acceleration. it cuts co 2 emission buys 75%. the car can run 150 kilometers on one tank of hydrogen and 500 kilometers when gasoline is also used. at presents it costs $64,000 to remod al regular car but the company aims to cut the cost to less than one-tenth of this amount. they begin mass production in three years. >>> that is all f